Patrick Wintour’s article in the Guardian this morning has gone down very badly in Labour circles. The notion that Labour MPs could be banned from triggering by-elections in order stand as Mayors or Police Commissioners due to dire finances has been met with outrage throughout the party. Though Labour are indeed broke, insiders see this for what it is – a direct attack on Liam Byrne and his bid to run for Mayor of Birmingham. Central command and control is back.

One former SpAd said: “Such a naked stitch-up. It would be simpler if Tom Watson just said that no-one whose name wasn’t Siôn Simon was allowed to run. Mind you, Siôn would still find a way to cock it up.”

Another senior party staffer points out: “why is the by-election thing only a problem when it’s Liam? They were happy to do it when it suited them, ie to get Lucy Powell in. Precedent was set by Sir Peter Soulsby in Leicester South, Watson was desperate to get his best mate Jonathan Ashworth in. It’s only when they lose control of the fixing they want to change the rules. Harriet biggest hypocrite of all. She used by-elections to get her cronies in – Ashworth was her former political secretary. And Seema Malhotra in Feltham and Heston was her former adviser.”"

The article has fingerprints all over it, especially as it names Harman as the driving force behind the idea. Her husband Jack Dromey is likely to chair Siôn Simon’s Birmingham campaign. Guido understands that a deal was struck when Dromey replaced Simon in the All Female Selection for Birmingham Erdington in 2010. One source called this an “old school Labour/union stitch up of the worst kind.”

Really pleased to have today been shortlisted for the selection in Manchester Central. It's a real honour. Good luck to others too.—
Lucy Powell (@LucyMPowell) March 28, 2012

Guido will eat his hat if Lucy Powell does not win the Labour selection process for Manchester Central. Ed’s Deputy Chief of Staff is in a bit of a pickle though. Given that she somehow managed to work her way  onto the controversial new party executive board, how is her selection going to look like anything other than a stitch up? This one doesn’t appear to have been thought through…

Labour cannot force Joyce out and he is denying the affair that the Daily Record alleged this morning. However one by-election is a certainty: Labour MP Marsha Singh is standing down in Bradford West saying he has “…come to a very painful conclusion to announce my retirement because I’m in the job to serve my constituents and, if I can’t do that I don’t deserve to be paid for the job. They don’t deserve that and I can’t let them down.”

If only all MPs who are seemingly unable to properly serve their constituents, were so noble:

Guido isn’t holding his breath…

After Guido’s scoop this morning about CCHQ’s tactful start to the upcoming Heathrow By-Election, all sorts of other divisions have been emerging today. Many are asking what happened to the Tory love-in with open primaries, or even a basic selection meeting. The Commentator reports further embarrassment for Dave:  one former approved candidate did get a look in for selection, by UKIP:

 ”…the UKIP candidate, highly likely to steal more than the 992 conservative votes that Jerry Shadbolt took in 2010, is none other than former Tory candidate for Edmonton, Andrew Charalambous. The businessman and barrister is also the founder of ‘Surya’, the world’s first eco-nightclub which hosted the official ‘Conservative Future’ party in November 2010. Activists may be confused as to whether to campaign for Cameron, who delivered them government, or for Charalambous, who delivered them… booze.”

With the Tories in a strong second place in the seat, the form set by the Oldham by-election should mean that we will be seeing the LibDems taking a sham role in this race. With the backdrop to this election, we could easily see UKIP coming third.

Talking of Euro-sceptics. Word reaches Guido from his Brusselois co-conspirator that all is not well with the outgoing Roger Helmer MEP. Normally the rules state that whoever is the next down the party list, automatically replaces a resigning MEP. However not everyone in CCHQ is enamoured with the equally Euro-sceptic replacement Rupert Matthews. He is a little eccentric and likes UFOs, but that can hardly render you unfit for selection when Norman Baker is in the government.

Some obscure quirk of the party constitution is being cited as a way of over-ruling the convention, but Helmer is having none of it. He has declared that unless Matthews is anointed his successor he won’t be resigning after all…

As the Tories announce their candidate for the upcoming Heathrow Airport by-election, there was some rather loud grumbling in the ranks last night. CCHQ have gone with the seat’s two-time general election veteran Mark Bowen. He’s the head of the Tory group on Hounslow Council and is looking to over turn the late Alan Keen’s 4,658 majority.

Given that the local press declared Bowen had “virtually accepted defeat” before polling day in May 2010, many boys and girls on the CCHQ approved list feel there should have been some semblance of an open contest, but it was all quiet from HQ. So imagine how well this email was received, hot from the Candidates Office, hours before last night’s announcement was made:

“I am expecting every candidate on the Approved List to rise to the challenge and take part in the campaign and polling day. If you are unable to visit Feltham & Heston, you can help out in other ways by joining our call centre in Millbank or at CCHQ Midlands based in Coleshill.
…
I am enclosing your Campaign Support Record Sheet. Therefore it is vitally important to print a copy and take it with you whenever you go to Feltham & Heston. This sheet will be signed by one of our Sector Agents each time you go. At the end of the campaign the completed sheet should be returned to the Candidates Department at CCHQ”

It’s not the request that is causing feathers to be spat, rather the patronising handholding and school trip worksheets, handed out in silence about how the decision was being made. So unity and vigour for December 15. It’s going to be a frosty winter on the stump..

The SNP failed to pull off another Glasgow style by-election coup, although they did manage to slash Labour’s majority from 14,416 to 5,578. The Tories came in third, however with real story of the night was the LibDems shocking 2%, managing to poll just 627 votes.

The low turnout cannot be blamed given they had 5,007 in May 2010 it was 45%, healthy for a by-election. The Scottish LibDems are smarting this morning and not doing very much to hide their contempt for Clegg. Remember when the LibDems by-election machine was feared across the land? Cowley Street can’t be a fun place to be this morning…

A Millbank co-conspirator says…

“Just seen MERLIN (Election Software) reports ran summarising the seat left on a printer. Such an act of faith….”

Oh dear…

Dan Jarvis is heading to Westminster as Labour’s second MP to have served in the army.  His new job was guaranteed from the moment he was selected, but the race behind him has left some stunned faces this morning. The total meltdown of the LibDems in May is well on course with Clegg left in a humiliating 6th place behind an indy and the BNP. And down £500.

UKIP sources were pleasantly surprised when Guido spoke to them last night, but there is no denying in the light of day that coming second is a major moment for them. Many a Tory Chihuahua – Conservatives In their Heads, Ukip At Heart, will be heartened by this result, they were hardly expected to get excited by the utterly uninspiring Tory candidate. It’s fascinating to see the Labour Eurosceptic vote is growing too. According to pollsters Survation, who predicted the LibDem collapse and UKIP rise, 29% of UKIPs growth came from Labour voters switching:

Issues like votes for prisoners seem to be playing well for UKIP, driving new recruits to their cause. More decrees from Europe must be highlighted and pushed. It’s clearly playing well.

While it is embarrassing for a sitting PM to be beaten by a minor party, made up of many voters he feels should be supporting him, there will be cheers from the blues lower down the ladder with this result.

The end result was Labour 14,718 (42%), LibDem 11,160 (31.9%), Con 4,481 (12.8%), UKIP 2,543 (5.6%), BNP 1560 (4.5%). The swing from LibDems to Labour was 4.9%, turnout was a reasonable 48%. The LibDem vote was steady, up fractionally on the general election, the Conservative vote halved, UKIP’s vote was up 40% on the general election and the BNP’s vote was down 22%.

Labour will say they did well, so they should in this seat, Clegg will point to the increased LibDem share of the vote and say they didn’t do bad. The Tories will feign disappointment. UKIP demonstrates once again that Tories have a place to go if they can’t stomach the coalition…

UPDATE: Labour are spinning that this is a clear vindication that the economic policies of the coalition are wrong. Not quite. If you add the Conservative and Liberal numbers together, more people are in favour of the coalition. A tired and tetchy Sayeeda Warsi is blaming the Tory-right for moaning. However, given the order came from above her head to move over for the LibDems, her digs at the Tory right, who she knows hate her, look as opportunistic as they do absurd.

As the Old and Sad voters head to the polls this morning, Labour seem certain that they are heading for win. Buoyed by the ICM and Populus poll boosts, Newsnight all but declared them victors last night, excitedly preparing their “dark day for the Coalition” lines. Smarkets punters say Labour are going to take it too…

Could the celebrations be a little premature though? The Survation poll showed there was still a huge amount of undecided voters. The fieldwork for all three polls showed there was already a shift from Conservatives to the LibDems, and given the coverage the “it’s a two horse race” line has got since Sunday, it’s possible that even more Tories might decide to do what Dave wants them to do and back the LibDem.  Whether or not this has enough of an impact to sway it, the result is certainly going to be closer than the 17% lead suggested by some pollsters…