Guido hears some Labour doorknockers who encounter Reform/Restore waverers in Makerfield – of which there are a few – are more than happy to suggest voting for Rupert Lowe’s party. With a grin…
Meanwhile Burnham outrider Dan Hodges is posting constantly about how strong the Restore vote is in the constituency. Labour house rag the New Statesman is assessing Lowe’s chances in the seat in light of his strong polling returns. It got 7% in a Times poll, enough to overtake Burnham when combined with Reform…
Everyone is at the same time having a field day with Reform candidate Robert Kenyon who, among other things, suggested Russia was right to take control of Crimea. Going well…
Andy Burnham has U-turned on his opposition to the EHRC trans guidance and his views on trans use of facilities in general. Right that’s it – Guido is launching a tracker…
Burnham said today that his views had changed since 2022 and added:
“I think the time has come to take the Supreme Court ruling and the guidance and implement it. But to do it in a way, obviously, that protects those spaces, but does not marginalise already marginalised communities… Let’s implement the guidance, but to do it in the fairest and most compassionate way possible.”
This is obviously the opposite of his previous statements. So far Burnham has U-turned on:
More to come! Follow along…
Work & Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden told broadcasters this morning:
“Any unnecessary by-election is always a risk. Uh, it’s the voters who have their say, but like any by-election that is called for whatever reason, I want Labour to win. Uh, I want to see a Labour MP for that seat, and that’s what we’ll all be working for between now and polling day and the by-election…
The sitting MP chose to resign. That’s always a risk to do. But now that it’s been called, we will fight to win the by-election for Labour.”
Burnham and his fans have spent the last few days saying the Makerfield by-election ‘isn’t about him’ and so on and so forth. Hilariously one Labour MP said Burnham “represents our best chance of keeping the seat.” Pure guff slapped down by McFadden…
Nigel Farage reacts:
“Yes, it’s a victory for sectarian voting. It’s a victory for cheating in elections… last night at the close of play, a very reputable organisation called Democracy Volunteers said in 12% of voting cases, they had witnessed family voting. That means a husband and wife or more going into the privacy of the polling station and effectively watching how the other member of the family votes. This is illegal under the law and yet it appears that the council didn’t do anything about it. So now there’s a debate about fraud in voting. That’s a very good thing.
…It’s postal voting that is being abused massively in this country. We need to get rid of the list. The only people that should ever vote by post are those who are elderly, infirm, or living or working abroad.
…Well, our vote was good. I’m very pleased we doubled our vote. The implications of our vote are that right across the north of England on the 7th of May and elsewhere in those elections we are going to do phenomenally well. Starmer has a massive problem. He’s on the way out.
…The Tory party is completely finished. There’s a resurgent hard left working now with sectarian politics, and emboldened off the back of it the Churchill statue in London has been vandalised overnight calling him a ‘Zionist’ and saying ‘globalise the intifada.’ We are in very big trouble. And the only party that will fight this, that will turn this around, will clean up the voting system, is Reform.”
All eyes now move to May…
The Green Party’s Hannah Spencer won by quite some margin in the Gorton and Denton by-election yesterday. Labour came third behind Reform. The Tories lost their deposit…
There was a 47.50% turnout. The results:
Labour had not lost an election in the area since 1931 until last night, near halving their 50.8% of the vote in 2024. That is Labour’s 13th highest fall in support in a by-election. Polling guru John Curtice told BBC Breakfast:
“The nervousness that already existed inside the Labor Party about Keir Starmer’s ability to turn around his party’s electoral fortunes, that nervousness is now going to be heightened. Not that there will be any move against the Prime Minister before May the 7th, but his chances of surviving after May the 7th if the results are bad, have, I think, been diminished.”
Deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell has already had to insist that “Keir is the right person for the job” this morning. The unions are starting to turn on Starmer, with general secretary of Unison Andrea Egan saying: “Under Keir Starmer the party is failing on every count, leaving the Greens to fill the vacuum.” Meanwhile, Reform’s Matt Goodwin said after his loss:
“A dangerous Muslim sectarianism has emerged. We have only one general election left to save Britain. Vote Reform every chance you get. I will continue the fight. I will always fight for you. I will stand at the next general election.”
Zack Polanski said after his party’s victory:
“This used to be one of Labour’s safest seats. The Green party saw a record-breaking swing in our direction and more than tripled our vote…Many ex-Labour voters told our canvassers that they will never go back to a party that supports genocide, fuels racism, and has failed to deliver on its promise to improve life for people across the country.”
Clock is ticking for Starmer…
The Greens have produced a video of their candidate Hannah Spencer speaking in Urdu. Here’s a translation of the key passages:
“A cruel politician can win if we don’t vote Green to stop the Reforms…
Workers, cleaners, drivers, mothers – it’s us who keep this area running. But the politicians are not working for us…
The Reforms want to break up our communities. They want to deport families who have lived here for years, and they want to tax people born abroad even more. They give air to Islamophobia, and they put our safety and dignity at risk. But there is another way…
I know, wherever I am in the world, whom I represent. I know what it means to work hard to earn a living, and I also know how to hold power and greed accountable. On February 26th let’s unite our vote behind the Greens.”
The accompanying visuals are striking. Blatant from the Greens…
The party is conducting a major last push. It told activists on the weekend:
“We hit all 14 mosques this Friday – 14/14! Thank you, everyone…
Our Ramadan cards went down a treat, even with the battle of the leaflets against Labour! We are now in our critical final 5 days, and we need volunteers to help with Taraweeh conversations and leafleting.
Do you attend evening Taraweeh at any of these mosques? If so, can you help with leaflets and conversations after prayers?”
Greens trying hard to mobilise their targeted ground campaign…
Tom Baldwin, author of Starmer’s hagiography, spoke to Times Radio:
Tom Baldwin: “I think he’d like to do something. He’s very dutiful and driven by service. That’s why he came into politics. I think that’s characterised his time as prime minister. He hasn’t always sought popularity or been good at being popular. But I think he has some of the necessary qualities that we actually do want in a prime minister. That resilience, that relentlessness, that ability to carry the weight and the job really does weigh very heavily on people and he carries that weight very, very well.”
Jo Coburn: “NATO Secretary-General?”
Tom Baldwin: “I think that’s something that he would be interested in. I think it probably requires Andy Burnham’s government to support him in that and these are some of the questions which Andy Burnham has to resolve quite quickly.”