After his barnstorming party conference speech maybe Guido’s expectations were too high. A whimper rather than a bang?

This morning there is some confusion about the Lobby, the PMOS told the Lobby this morning that

“the Prime Minister was not announcing his resignation as Prime Minister next week. That is not what he would be doing. What the Prime Minister would be doing would be setting out his intentions but he would not be resigning as Prime Minister next week. Asked if he was resigning as leader of the Labour Party, the PMOS said it was a Party, not Government matter and the question the PMOS had been asked was about the Prime Minister’s role as Head of Government. After the Prime Minister has announced his intention he will remain Prime Minister. Asked if the Prime Minister would not go and see the HM the Queen next week but after the leadership contest has been concluded, the PMOS said at last the penny had dropped.”

Last week Blair himself said he would be making a party related announcement. Before the 2005 general election Guido suggested that Blair might opt for the Aznar option to square his promise to serve a full term. Look closely at the form of words Blair used prior to Labour’s party conference:

“I think what is important now is that we understand that it’s the interests of the country that come first and we move on. I would have preferred to do this in my own way… The next party conference in a couple of weeks will be my last party conference as party leader, the next TUC conference next week will be my last TUC – probably to the relief of both of us.”

That word formula commits him only to standing down as leader of the party. Nothing about standing down as PM.

Blair can argue that he gave a commitment to the people at the general election to serve a “full term“ and the voters gave him that mandate. He can also argue that he gave a promise to give the next leader of the Labour party “time to bed in“. If he stood down as Labour leader but not as PM he could keep both promises. It would also let him keep his grip on power as he tries deserately to get radical Blairite policies and reforms implemented.

José María Aznar lost the support of the people who had voted for the Partido Popular in 2000 and had to pledge not to run again. In January 2004 Aznar called new elections and designated his candidate, Mariano Rajoy, sticking to his pledge of not seeking office for a third term.

Is the Aznar option in Britain so outrageous? Has Blair given up the fight for Blairite policies and accepted his legacy will be Iraq and criminal corruption charges against his aides?

Guido is certain that Blair will still be PM next week, he will be resigning only as party leader. Could he shaft Brown one last time? Would the Labour party support him as PM until the next general election? Outrageous? At his last conference as leader he told us “there are no rules in politics”…

The First Post’s “The Mole” has tipped Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting.com that he is about to break a story. The Mole is firmly in the Brown camp. Punters have shifted money onto an early bath for Blair with speculation of a date being leaked. We have had this before with The Sun even announcing a date on the front page.

Nick Robinson has been weighing up Blair’s semantic choices. His PMQs answer to Cameron this week implied that he had not made up his mind when to go. Did he just say that to wind up the Brownites?

Most think he’ll make an announcement after May 3. Presumably he’ll wait until after returning from Stormont on May 8 to bask in the afterglow of perhaps achieving peace in the six counties. (We should not quibble that it is a strange peace that sees the two most extreme parties in power.) So it is possible that he could go see the Queen and tell her of his intentions sometime in early May.

For political punters whether or not it is before or after May 13 is crucial. The leadership process takes 7 weeks. Bets on the timing of his leaving hinge on the date he is no longer leader of the Labour party. If the process starts on May 12 bets will be settled for June, if May 13 bets will be settled for July. Knife edge…

UPDATE : The Mole’s big “exclusive” this morning is the claim that Blair will say he is going on May 9. Could be… but never say never with Blair and our Brownite Mole might be indulging in wishful thinking.

Tony Blair is holding talks with the Hungarian prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany.

To help them get along better Guido has compiled some handy Hungarian political phrases for Tony to use:

The Hungarian PM was caught on tape last May uttering the above and plenty more, resulting in rioting in Budapest. Tony Blair’s lies resulted in Iraq…

He also attended the Labour youth wing’s national conference in Glasgow last week. Can Gordon really believe he’ll stick to the deal?

The Downing Street e-petitions exercise tells us something fundamental about Tony Blair and his government. They are not listening, your opinion is irrelevant. They view the e-petitions project as a means by which they can put their case to opponents. Tony doesn’t take note, a million signatures against road pricing merely means that they will have to explain it again and again until they get their way. As soon as the anti-ID cards petition closed, signatories got an email telling us why ID cards would lead us to Nirvana. Consultation in New Labour’s dictionary means “to seek approval”.

Back in the day Noel Gallagher was part of Blair’s Cool Britannia. This picture was emblematic. Remember it was all going to be whiter than white, have an ethical foreign policy and put education, education, education of the children first.

“When the Labour Party got in it was all about children and education and yet 10 years down the line there’s people saying that kids are better off in Poland… I don’t really think there’s anything left to vote for. That’s why people don’t vote… why people would rather vote for celebrity talent shows than would vote for politics.” says the Oasis front man today.

Don’t look back in anger Noel, roll with it. He clearly won’t be supping champagne at No. 10 any time soon…