Harman – Ouch

That was expensive. No, Guido didn’t lay it off. Mike Smithson will be chuffed.

Bet she isn’t Deputy-PM, mind you the way Guido’s bets are going…


UPDATE : Not DPM, Guido got that right at least. Worse reporting from the Telegraph and Sky. It was also a pretty bad call some time back from YouGov’s poll of the membership for the Times as well.

UPDATE II : Cruddas transfers from Amicus and the TGWU swung it for Harman. Johnson won in the affilates and MPs sections and still lost.

Co-conspirators Clean Up on Guido Tip

Yesterday afternoon Guido tipped Alan Johnson to win and advised co-conspirators to get down to the bookies quick. By this morning the odds collapsed, Benn has gone from 3/1 to 11/1, Alan Johnson is so much the hot favourite that you’ll have to risk £4 to win less than a pound. Co-conspirators cleaned up. Good luck at Ascot, where Guido would rather watch the ladies than the horses…

Alan Johnson Will Win By Over 5%

Guido is calling it for Johnson and and has backed him accordingly. He will, after the eliminations, win by a margin in excess of 5% according to number crunching from rival campaigns.

Looking over at LabourHome it is noticeable that the only online campaign adverts came from Alan Johnson – the tedious 8 part Benn video interview saga probably lost them votes.

Whereas the Tory leadership campaign “made” ConservativeHome, LabourHome didn’t really capitalise on the campaign.

Still a chance to get a 50% return on your money in four days if you are quick on Betfair

Is the Cruddas Campaign a Covert Operation?

A co-conspirator spent a morning last week trying to get hold of the Cruddas campaign – don’t ask – the campaign website gives no phone numbers. His constituency office said they were not allowed to give out that information and it being recess the office in parliament was unmanned, with the voicemail saying it was full.

Both Cruddas’s and Benn’s campaigns are based in the same serviced offices near Lambeth Bridge. At the time of writing Team Cruddas hasn’t managed to empty the pigeonhole since it has had it (about two and a half weeks). Strikes Guido this is exactly the sort of Deputy Leader of the Labour Party the country needs: one who makes scarey left-wing noises for public consumption but has the organisational acumen of a vegetable marrow. Cheaper to run than Prescott, too.

His price on Betfair makes him third favourite after what most judge was a better and certainly more authentic performance on Newsnight. Despite a little excitement that this has brought to in the beating hearts of the Labour Left, Guido suggests you bet against him rather than on him. He is not going to win…

On Betfair Alan Johnson has overtaken Benn as favourite following a weekend poll putting him ahead with Labour members.

Punting on Paxo v the Number Two Wannabees

Guido has loaded up his Betfair account with cash in the hope that the Newsnight debate could be decisive one way or another in this race. Will try to figure not the merit of the arguments, not even how voters in the Labour electoral college will respond, but how other gamblers will interpret events. Despite having explained this many times, gambling on a beauty contest (like this) is not about figuring out who is the prettiest girl, but who the judges will think is the prettiest girl. Good luck..

Intros hardly move the market.

Head-to-head is more of a side-by-side format.

Lots of flannel on the Iraq issue.

Promises from Harman of an end to spin.

No real move in the betting markets, Paxo demands yes/no answers. Cruddas says no to Trident and charitable schools. So that stakes him out on the left.

Alan Johnson and Blears appear to accept the post-Thatcher Blairite settlement.

Punters start to move against Hain. Johnson closes on Benn.

Paxo bows out with “who would vote for if you weren’t running?” Only Cruddas gives a straight answer (Blears Harman).

ENDS

Let the spinning begin…

Number Twos on Newsnight

In what frankly, even by political anorak standards, is a boring campaign so far, tonight offers the prospect of some interest as they go face-to-face tonight on Newsnight.

Benn is now favourite, followed by Johnson. Punters make the rest also rans. Guido has a little money on Harman with an outside chance…

Harman 7/1? Worth a Punt

Betfair has finally opened up a market on who will be the Labour number two – smart move guys, but the trading would have been more choppy earlier. Alan Johnson is favourite, Hilary Benn is behind him 5/2 and Harman is next at 7/1.
Blears, Cruddas and Hain follow up in that order at long odds. Guido suspects it could be that the favourite wins, but has nevertheless put a few quid on Harman at what looks like good value. Suspicious number of Brownites backed her nomination…

Punters Back Reid to Run

As the dire electoral performance drives home to the less lemming-like members of the Labour party the actual value of Gordon, money has shifted over to Reid on Betfair. The graph shows how the price has come in over the last five days. Guido is frankly not convinced that Reid is willing to do battle with the dark forces.

Guido still has a few quid on John Hutton just in case he tries a Kamikaze battle of “ideas” with the man he said “would make a fucking useless PM”. 300/1 seems fair…

UPDATE : Don’t bother with Hutton – he has given an interview to GMTV for broadcast tomorrow where he bends the knee and pledges allegiance to Gordon.

Bookies Make Ming Even Money To Go

Mike Smithson over at PoliticalBetting.com alerts us to fact that Wiliam Hill have opened a book on Ming going before the General Election. His position is clearly weakened by the squeeze suffered by the LibDems nationally. The very real possibility

[…]

+ READ MORE +

SNP Knife-Edge Choppy for Punters

Guido has been trading the Betfair Scottish Most Seats market on Betfair badly as it bounces around. The odds have been inconclusive. Guido has managed to get himself into a situation where he wins £1.30 if Labour are the biggest

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Odds Harden

Mike Smithson points out this morning that as political punters increasingly see Gordon as nigh-on a certainty, the odds on the Tories winning the general election become even firmer.

The correlation is striking.

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Blinky Balls : I Won’t Be Chancellor

Blinky BallsIn a puff piece in the Brownite Daily Mail, Blinky does a bit of false modesty and says “I still have a lot to learn.” He tells Dacre’s hacks, “No” he won’t be taking over at the Treasury “I

[…]

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Mary Creagh’s coded attack on Ed Miliband…

‘I want the country to be united behind a single vision, we aren’t going to do it by sort of having a Rubik’s Cube approach to politics’. 

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Top LibDem: All MPs Lie Top LibDem: All MPs Lie
Awkward Ed Bercow Moment Awkward Ed Bercow Moment
Algenol: Fuel of the Future Algenol: Fuel of the Future
ENCRYPTION COMPANY HEADS TO SWITZERLAND TO FLEE NSA ENCRYPTION COMPANY HEADS TO SWITZERLAND TO FLEE NSA
The Emperor’s New Solar Panels The Emperor’s New Solar Panels
Guardian Departure Fuels New York Times London Speculation Guardian Departure Fuels New York Times London Speculation

Andy Burnham: Rent-Swapper Andy Burnham: Rent-Swapper
Burnham’s Paul Smith Suits Burnham’s Paul Smith Suits
FLASHBACK: You Are Subsidising Andy Burnham’s Property Portfolio FLASHBACK: You Are Subsidising Andy Burnham’s Property Portfolio
Arise, Sir Eric! Arise, Sir Eric!
ENERGY MINISTER TOTTY WATCH CONTINUED ENERGY MINISTER TOTTY WATCH CONTINUED
Stella Grills Dimbleby on Sexuality Stella Grills Dimbleby on Sexuality
New Select Committee Chair Allocation in Full New Select Committee Chair Allocation in Full
Miliband: Don’t Move to the Centre Miliband: Don’t Move to the Centre
Insta-Bunga! Insta-Bunga!
GREEN PAEDO RING RUMBLED GREEN PAEDO RING RUMBLED
BIONIC MAN CONTROLS TWO ROBOTIC ARMS WITH HIS MIND BIONIC MAN CONTROLS TWO ROBOTIC ARMS WITH HIS MIND
TECH NOSTALGIA: LYCOS SELLS ITS PATENTS TECH NOSTALGIA: LYCOS SELLS ITS PATENTS
BIN LADEN PLANNED JIHAD ON CLIMATE CHANGE BIN LADEN PLANNED JIHAD ON CLIMATE CHANGE