Punting on Paxo v the Number Two Wannabees

Guido has loaded up his Betfair account with cash in the hope that the Newsnight debate could be decisive one way or another in this race. Will try to figure not the merit of the arguments, not even how voters in the Labour electoral college will respond, but how other gamblers will interpret events. Despite having explained this many times, gambling on a beauty contest (like this) is not about figuring out who is the prettiest girl, but who the judges will think is the prettiest girl. Good luck..

Intros hardly move the market.

Head-to-head is more of a side-by-side format.

Lots of flannel on the Iraq issue.

Promises from Harman of an end to spin.

No real move in the betting markets, Paxo demands yes/no answers. Cruddas says no to Trident and charitable schools. So that stakes him out on the left.

Alan Johnson and Blears appear to accept the post-Thatcher Blairite settlement.

Punters start to move against Hain. Johnson closes on Benn.

Paxo bows out with “who would vote for if you weren’t running?” Only Cruddas gives a straight answer (Blears Harman).

ENDS

Let the spinning begin…

Number Twos on Newsnight

In what frankly, even by political anorak standards, is a boring campaign so far, tonight offers the prospect of some interest as they go face-to-face tonight on Newsnight.

Benn is now favourite, followed by Johnson. Punters make the rest also rans. Guido has a little money on Harman with an outside chance…

Harman 7/1? Worth a Punt

Betfair has finally opened up a market on who will be the Labour number two – smart move guys, but the trading would have been more choppy earlier. Alan Johnson is favourite, Hilary Benn is behind him 5/2 and Harman is next at 7/1.
Blears, Cruddas and Hain follow up in that order at long odds. Guido suspects it could be that the favourite wins, but has nevertheless put a few quid on Harman at what looks like good value. Suspicious number of Brownites backed her nomination…

Punters Back Reid to Run

As the dire electoral performance drives home to the less lemming-like members of the Labour party the actual value of Gordon, money has shifted over to Reid on Betfair. The graph shows how the price has come in over the last five days. Guido is frankly not convinced that Reid is willing to do battle with the dark forces.

Guido still has a few quid on John Hutton just in case he tries a Kamikaze battle of “ideas” with the man he said “would make a fucking useless PM”. 300/1 seems fair…

UPDATE : Don’t bother with Hutton – he has given an interview to GMTV for broadcast tomorrow where he bends the knee and pledges allegiance to Gordon.

Bookies Make Ming Even Money To Go

Mike Smithson over at PoliticalBetting.com alerts us to fact that Wiliam Hill have opened a book on Ming going before the General Election. His position is clearly weakened by the squeeze suffered by the LibDems nationally. The very real possibility of the LibDems finding themselves near-bankrupted by the necessity of paying back the millions from their fraudster backer adds to the pressure. He could very easily suffer health problems that force him to stand down. Such as a knife protruding from his back…

SNP Knife-Edge Choppy for Punters

Guido has been trading the Betfair Scottish Most Seats market on Betfair badly as it bounces around. The odds have been inconclusive. Guido has managed to get himself into a situation where he wins £1.30 if Labour are the biggest party and loses substantially on every other possible outcome.

Which reminds Guido, the Observer’s Mark Townsend still hasn’t paid up his gambling losses despite many hints.

Odds Harden

Mike Smithson points out this morning that as political punters increasingly see Gordon as nigh-on a certainty, the odds on the Tories winning the general election become even firmer.

The correlation is striking.

Blinky Balls : I Won’t Be Chancellor

Blinky BallsIn a puff piece in the Brownite Daily Mail, Blinky does a bit of false modesty and says “I still have a lot to learn.” He tells Dacre’s hacks, “No” he won’t be taking over at the Treasury “I have been a Minister for less than a year”. Yes, and he has barely managed to hang on to his parliamentary seat. If Brown hadn’t sorted out a sinecure and a peerage for the neighbouring sitting MP his protege would soon face actually having to earn a living.Guido has been betting against Balls being Chancellor for sometime, his odds are far too short and he has effectively made himself a longshot. Alastair Darling should get the gig unless the upcoming cabinet game of musical chairs somehow upsets Brown’s plans. In other bets Guido has rebalanced the Blair-to-Go bet to July/Sep on Betfair. Uncharacteristically am “all red” on any other outcome. If Yates forces an early Blair resignation Guido will take a hammering at the bookies, but it would be worth it…

Cheer yourself up again by watching Blinky fall apart under interrogation by Brillo.

Profit from Politics

Those of you who took Guido’s advice and put some money on Milburn at 100/1 last night will be able to take profits and lay him at around 30/1 this morning. Even easier than investing in private equity…

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Couple of Quid on a Kamikaze

Miliband has come in sharply to 9/1 second favourite. Time to take profits if you backed him at longer odds methinks.

At an outside 100/1 on Betfair, Milburn is worth a flutter surely? Guido has put a few quid

[…]

+ READ MORE +

New Labour’s New Generation

With polling now showing that the Tories are seen as more competent on the economy than Labour, Gordon’s last ace looks to have been trumped. In 1992 the Tories lost their reputation for superior economic competence and it has taken

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Loans for Lordships : Still Taking Bets

The news that Catholic school headmaster Des Smith will not face charges suggests that we are entering the endgame for the investigation. Guido is still good for bets.

If anybody wants to step up to the plate and bet that

[…]

+ READ MORE +



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David Cameron tells MPs after voting:

“Wouldn’t miss this for the world. Secret ballots very important. Remember the Chartists.”

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