+++ Paddy Power Pays Out Bets on Boris +++

According to Mike Smithson over on Politicalbetting.com.

+++ Bookies Slash Odds on Tory Majority to Evens +++

Punters have switched from expecting a hung parliament to a Tory majority after the general election. Smart money or over exuberance?

+++ LIVE CHAT INTERACTIVE +++

@ 22.33

Boris Johnson 1.17 / 1.18

Ken Livingstone 6.4 / 6.8

Brian Paddick 370 / 490

@ 22.42

Betfair has First preference percentage share bets

Punters are backing Boris to have more than 40% and Ken to have between 35% to 40%.

Des Browne is chanting on Question Time “there is no issue of Gordon’s leadership” clearly this mantra is the offical “line to take”.

@ 23.05

Richard Littlejohn just right-hooked Polly Toynbee with a counter-punch when she asked what did he know about people on average wages. he retorted with an inquiry about her flights to her villa in Italy. She looked shaken and said “lets not get into this way”. Oh please do…

Told You So…

Now even Peter Riddell is writing off Labour maybe Guido should think about changing his bets. Six months ago it all looked so different didn’t it? You could have got 3/1 on the Tories being the biggest party. Not now…

The Darling Brown stance on the economy is essentially cross-your-fingers. No growth package, no boost to the property market, nothing. They are kidding themselves if they think voters will return to them in times of trouble. The City is bracing itself, the credit crunch is about fear. Darling thinks he can bore the economy better…

Betfair have opened up a market on the LibDem Leadership –

Clegg is hot favourite at less than evens.
Huhne is 13/5
Steve Webb is 15/1
Ed Davey is 36/1
Charles Kennedy is 40/1
Julia Goldsworthy is 40/1
Vince Cable is 50/1

Cable’s price seems to have some value here as an outsider. Guido has put a fiver on him as a trading bet.

Incidentally, Guido covered all his “Tories to be the biggest party” bets at a profit last night. If Clegg wins he may enjoy a honeymoon at Cameron’s expense…

3% Tory Lead Finishes Gordon’s Miserable Week

Graphic credit : ConservativeHome


Can you imagine the cackling of Cherie Blair? Tony sat beside her on the sofa drinking a decent bottle of Barolo, TV remote in hand, repeatedly rewinding the videotape of PMQs and cheering on Cameron in between sips of the wine, tears of laughter rolling down his cheeks.

Labour MPs in marginal seats this weekend will be wondering what they have wrought. Three times Blair led them to victory, the latest poll shows that after just three months, Brown is a likely loser, along with their seats.

The Tories really should consider sending Tom Watson a bottle of champagne for his part in Blair’s downfall, particularly after he lost that £100 bet with Cameron

Last Man Standing

With Ming now facing the guillotine and Brown severely battered it is interesting to check what the bookies have done. The odds on Cameron being the only one of the three leading his party into the next election have been slashed from 25/1 to 6/1. Punters now think there is a good chance that both Ming and Brown will not lead their parties into the next general election.

The punters also reckon May 2009 is the favourite election date at 5/4 on. The most dramatic change is in the biggest party prices. Remember Guido’s crazy bet last month? Labour are 10/11 on and the Tories are neck and neck at 11/10 – in from 3/1. Lovely jubbly…

Gordon Has Bottled It

The author of a book on Courage, the genius tactician, has bottled it. Gordon marched his troops to the top of the hill, and then he ran away.
The Brownies* will claim that they are “getting on with the job” but they have done nothing but electioneer, they are not governing, they are campaigning and spinning non-stop. They are more focused on good headlines than good governance.

Oh well, Guido has taken quite a few quid off those betting on an early election and that Tories to be the biggest party bet looks a lot better now.

Gordon’s judgement, to not simply squash the speculation, will be in question and his authority much reduced after this, Cameron called him on it without reservation. Dave didn’t flinch, Gordon just blinked…

*No longer will Guido use the macho sounding term Brownites, these are the Brownies. Compared to the Blairites, we really are dealing with the B-team.

UPDATED : Election Fever – Who Says When

Dateline : 5 October

The Telegraph’s Daniel Hannan has been in touch to point out that Peter Riddell first ruled out any prospect of a 2007 poll back in June, “that’s what first persuaded me it was likely.” He also

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Opinion Polls versus Actual Votes

Guido just stuck even more money on the Tories being the biggest party post-election. Note the bet terms carefully – the biggest party. The prices have admittedly moved further against the Tories since last month when Guido stuck £50

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Contrarian? Crazy?

Six months ago the Tories looked set for victory at the next general election, they were the odds on favourites, Labour activists were downhearted. Now things have reversed, Dave is in trouble and can do nothing right. So Guido just

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Harman – Ouch

That was expensive. No, Guido didn’t lay it off. Mike Smithson will be chuffed.

Bet she isn’t Deputy-PM, mind you the way Guido’s bets are going…


UPDATE : Not DPM, Guido got that right at least. Worse reporting from the

[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Tim Farron is asked by GQ how he will be remembered:

“I won’t be. So there’s no point in worrying about how you’d like to be remembered at all.”

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