Mike Smithson over at PoliticalBetting.com alerts us to fact that Wiliam Hill have opened a book on Ming going before the General Election. His position is clearly weakened by the squeeze suffered by the LibDems nationally. The very real possibility of the LibDems finding themselves near-bankrupted by the necessity of paying back the millions from their fraudster backer adds to the pressure. He could very easily suffer health problems that force him to stand down. Such as a knife protruding from his back…

Guido has been trading the Betfair Scottish Most Seats market on Betfair badly as it bounces around. The odds have been inconclusive. Guido has managed to get himself into a situation where he wins £1.30 if Labour are the biggest party and loses substantially on every other possible outcome.

Which reminds Guido, the Observer’s Mark Townsend still hasn’t paid up his gambling losses despite many hints.

Mike Smithson points out this morning that as political punters increasingly see Gordon as nigh-on a certainty, the odds on the Tories winning the general election become even firmer.

The correlation is striking.

In a puff piece in the Brownite Daily Mail, Blinky does a bit of false modesty and says “I still have a lot to learn.” He tells Dacre’s hacks, “No” he won’t be taking over at the Treasury “I have been a Minister for less than a year”. Yes, and he has barely managed to hang on to his parliamentary seat. If Brown hadn’t sorted out a sinecure and a peerage for the neighbouring sitting MP his protege would soon face actually having to earn a living.

Guido has been betting against Balls being Chancellor for sometime, his odds are far too short and he has effectively made himself a longshot. Alastair Darling should get the gig unless the upcoming cabinet game of musical chairs somehow upsets Brown’s plans. In other bets Guido has rebalanced the Blair-to-Go bet to July/Sep on Betfair. Uncharacteristically am “all red” on any other outcome. If Yates forces an early Blair resignation Guido will take a hammering at the bookies, but it would be worth it…

Cheer yourself up again by watching Blinky fall apart under interrogation by Brillo.

Those of you who took Guido’s advice and put some money on Milburn at 100/1 last night will be able to take profits and lay him at around 30/1 this morning. Even easier than investing in private equity…

Miliband has come in sharply to 9/1 second favourite. Time to take profits if you backed him at longer odds methinks.

At an outside 100/1 on Betfair, Milburn is worth a flutter surely? Guido has put a few quid on the Kamikaze for a trading bet. Just in case he runs…

With polling now showing that the Tories are seen as more competent on the economy than Labour, Gordon’s last ace looks to have been trumped. In 1992 the Tories lost their reputation for superior economic competence and it has taken a decade of stealth taxes for Gordon to lose his. Coupled with the fact that he is just not likeable, even in comparison to Blair, Labour MPs in marginal seats must be beginning to wonder about their chances. Frank Field may have an axe to grind but he is vocalising what many in the PLP are thinking, ask yourself why are emails going round attempting to guage support for Miliband? It shows the depth of despair in some quarters about the prospect of Gordon leading Labour into opposition.

In the last three months punters have backed Miliband from 40/1 down to 15/1, discounting his unambiguous declarations of his non-intention of running for leader. Heseltine said much the same a decade or so ago. But with Gordon facing only joke candidates from the left of the party, the centre and pragmatic wing must be thinking about the next generation. Don’t forget Hutton either…

The news that Catholic school headmaster Des Smith will not face charges suggests that we are entering the endgame for the investigation. Guido is still good for bets.

If anybody wants to step up to the plate and bet that nobody will be charged, do email Guido.

Still haven’t seen a payment from the Observer’s Mark Townsend. He predicted the investigation would be all over in October. The Speccie’s Fraser Nelson is studying the wine list. Anyone else care to risk reputation and wallet?

Update : An Über-Blairite-Ultra-Outrider has emailed to say he is on for “20 notes”. Presumably he means £20. Though he should note they don’t print pound notes nowadays.

Is Mark Townsend a patsy, a liar or an idiot? Is he fit for purpose? You decide. Guido (and his source) would like a little wager Mark…