Tuesday, December 2, 2008

C’mon ComRes

Has the arrest of Damian Green and the hiking of beer and income taxes boosted Labour massively? ComRes has Labour up 4% to only 1% behind the Tories (down 6%).

The ComRes national numbers are Con 37%(-6), Lab 36%(+4), Lib 17%(+5). It also has the Tories ahead of Labour in Wales and Labour shooting up in the wealthy Tory heartlands of the south east of England.

Does that make sense to you? ICM and Mori have Labour with double digit deficits. Punters on Betfair make Labour 3/1 outsiders…

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Glenrothes : Punters V Pundits, Round II

Over at Politicalbetting.com Mike Smithson is encouraging the punters to vote on who they think is going to win the Glenrothes by-election – Labour or the SNP?
  • As of 0900 this morning the punters (after 200 votes) are splitting 61% for the SNP and 39% for Labour.
  • Over on PoliticsHome the PH100 Index “daily tracker of uk insider and expert opinion” is calling it 61% / 31% for Labour to win. Strikingly inverse proportions.
Over on Betfair the punters are putting their money where their mouths are and making the SNP odds on favourites. Back in July the punters made fools of the pundits over the outcome of the Glasgow East by-election. The pundits are as fickle as teenage girls, the punters are more calculating.

The London based punditry are out of touch, they talk too much to each other. Our old friend Tom Watson has been briefing the press that Labour will win Glenrothes and this will be a great victory for Gordon. He has convinced Gordon to stake what little political capital he has on a Glenrothes comeback campaigning in the constituency. However, as Ben Brogan has detected, so chronic is the shortage of local activists and supporters Labour are press-ganging English Labour MPs and Northern CLP activists to trek past Hadrian’s Wall to help in the constituency. Not exactly a sign of a forthcoming resounding victory.

Guido thinks the punters not the pundits are right, again. Gordon’s personal visit should, if the curse of the one-eyed son of the manse still holds, have doomed Labour’s candidate. Labour are throwing the kitchen sink at this, heck the 10p tax bailout cost a few billion during the Crewe by-election, this time the bailout of Scottish banks cost tens of billions for this by-election. It will be close…

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

McCain – Is He Really Out of the Race?

Betfair is offering 5/1 on a McCain victory. That seems a bit steep for a two horse race. Sure he is behind, sure Palin is appalling the East Coast liberal media and the BBC, but 5/1?

Tempting odds for a value bet. When you drill down in some of the most likely to vote groups, McCain is strong, older voters for instance. Even if almost all Hollywood stars are voting for The One, they are not that numerically strong. Do you really think this going be a wipe-out for the Republicans?

Monday, October 6, 2008

PLP Changes Bets

The collapse of the Miliband putsch and reports from the PLP that there is to be an end to hostilities” has made Guido shift his bets. Guido is now backing a May 2010 general election date with the Labour Party led by Gordon Brown. (Incidentally, you can get 12 /1 on Brown leading his party and Cameron not, an outside bet if you feel lucky.)

It seems to Guido that not even a disaster in Glenrothes will divert the Labour Party from its lemming instinct.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

+++ FSA Bans Short Selling +++

First they came for the capitalists…

(Guido is short FTSE Futures. What are you going to do Gordon?)

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Calling the Brown Bottom*

Back in August 2007 when Brown was walking on water and the Tories were arguing over grammar schools, Guido put money on the Tories (at 3/1) being the biggest party in parliament post a General Election.
It is worth checking the comments to see how crazy people thought it at the time. Having correctly called the top with Brown, Guido is now calling the “Brown Bottom”. Guido is backing on Betfair a Labour win in Glasgow East, despite what the pundits think and also getting long Labour seats for a General Election with spread bets seems to be a win-win. If Labour win Glasgow East, Guido coins it on the by-election and the relief will translate into an improvement in their General Election seats expectations. If they lose Glasgow East they will surely have to get rid of the Prime Mentalist, which will also improve their seats expectations. Win-win…

*Not to be confused with what chartists of the gold market call theBrown Bottom, when he told the gold market in advance that he was going to sell off Britain’s gold reserves. The traders immediately got short ahead of the sales, profited on the way down as gold plunged, filled their boots as they bought back their shorts and some more for the greatest gold market rally of the twentieth century. An act of imprudent financial stupidity that some describe as treasonous.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Punters Favour Winter Exit for Brown

Punters on Betfair make a post party conference exit for Brown favourite at 5/2, with the odds on him lasting another year lengthening to 9/1. Could he be shown the door under the guise of ill-health? The contempt in which he is held in private by his own party is pitiful.

Guido suspects (hopes) Gordon will last until the general election…

Monday, May 12, 2008

Crewe & Nantwich Betting

After seeing some of the LibDem campaign literature and the undeniable fact that the Labour odds have lengthened even further, Guido has covered his bet taking the hit and cutting his losses on that Labour bet.
The LibDems are not repeating the mistake they made in the Mayorals. They attacked Boris when the public was moving towards the Tories. This election they are going with the popular flow and attacking Labour. Their advertising says “Send a Message to Gordon Brown”. They might take some votes from disillusioned Labour voters who can’t bring themselves to vote Tory. More bad news for Tamsin…

Friday, May 2, 2008

+++ Paddy Power Pays Out Bets on Boris +++

According to Mike Smithson over on Politicalbetting.com.

+++ Bookies Slash Odds on Tory Majority to Evens +++

Punters have switched from expecting a hung parliament to a Tory majority after the general election. Smart money or over exuberance?

Seen Elsewhere

Why Pollsters Could Be Wrong | John McDermott
Cameron Faces Vote of No Confidence or Rebellion | FT
Cameron Faces Revolt Over ‘Vow’ | Sun
It’s Time to Speak for England | John Redwood
It Was Me Who Taped Howard Flight | John Woodcock
Indy Editor: We Will Stay Afloat | Press Gazette
English Don’t Want Scotland to Stay at Any Price | Dan Hodges
England Must Have Self-Government Too | Mark Wallace
Next Year’s Election Will Be the Dirtiest Ever | Speccie
Chicken Salmond Runs Away From Sun Cabbie | Sun
Scary No Messages Don’t Add Up | Sun


VOTER-RECALL
Find out more about PLMR


Gyles Brandreth writes in his memoirs:

“Sunday, May 10, 1998

Early start: appearing on Breakfast With Frost, to be broadcast from 11 Downing Street. The Chancellor [Gordon Brown] is grouchily amiable, but so earnest — and still biting his fingernails to the quick.

After the show, he took us upstairs to his flat. He lives above No 10, while Blair and family are in the No 11 duplex, which is bigger and more like a proper house.

I was intrigued that, when he took us into his bedroom, the Chancellor rather ostentatiously opened the built-in wardrobes, as if he wanted us to see the women’s frocks that were hanging in there.

They looked quite large, but I don’t think they belong to Gordon. I assume they belong to his girlfriend [Sarah Macaulay, who he later married].

I presume he was keen for us to know that he has one — and that she’s not a ‘beard’. I don’t think he does anything without calculation.”



The British media are Hunts says:

Now the SNP know how UKIP voters feel all the time.


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