PLP Changes Bets

The collapse of the Miliband putsch and reports from the PLP that there is to be an end to hostilities” has made Guido shift his bets. Guido is now backing a May 2010 general election date with the Labour Party led by Gordon Brown. (Incidentally, you can get 12 /1 on Brown leading his party and Cameron not, an outside bet if you feel lucky.)

It seems to Guido that not even a disaster in Glenrothes will divert the Labour Party from its lemming instinct.

+++ FSA Bans Short Selling +++

First they came for the capitalists…

(Guido is short FTSE Futures. What are you going to do Gordon?)

Calling the Brown Bottom*

Back in August 2007 when Brown was walking on water and the Tories were arguing over grammar schools, Guido put money on the Tories (at 3/1) being the biggest party in parliament post a General Election.
It is worth checking the comments to see how crazy people thought it at the time. Having correctly called the top with Brown, Guido is now calling the “Brown Bottom”. Guido is backing on Betfair a Labour win in Glasgow East, despite what the pundits think and also getting long Labour seats for a General Election with spread bets seems to be a win-win. If Labour win Glasgow East, Guido coins it on the by-election and the relief will translate into an improvement in their General Election seats expectations. If they lose Glasgow East they will surely have to get rid of the Prime Mentalist, which will also improve their seats expectations. Win-win…

*Not to be confused with what chartists of the gold market call theBrown Bottom, when he told the gold market in advance that he was going to sell off Britain’s gold reserves. The traders immediately got short ahead of the sales, profited on the way down as gold plunged, filled their boots as they bought back their shorts and some more for the greatest gold market rally of the twentieth century. An act of imprudent financial stupidity that some describe as treasonous.

Punters Favour Winter Exit for Brown

Punters on Betfair make a post party conference exit for Brown favourite at 5/2, with the odds on him lasting another year lengthening to 9/1. Could he be shown the door under the guise of ill-health? The contempt in which he is held in private by his own party is pitiful.

Guido suspects (hopes) Gordon will last until the general election…

Crewe & Nantwich Betting

After seeing some of the LibDem campaign literature and the undeniable fact that the Labour odds have lengthened even further, Guido has covered his bet taking the hit and cutting his losses on that Labour bet.
The LibDems are not repeating the mistake they made in the Mayorals. They attacked Boris when the public was moving towards the Tories. This election they are going with the popular flow and attacking Labour. Their advertising says “Send a Message to Gordon Brown”. They might take some votes from disillusioned Labour voters who can’t bring themselves to vote Tory. More bad news for Tamsin…

+++ Paddy Power Pays Out Bets on Boris +++

According to Mike Smithson over on Politicalbetting.com.

+++ Bookies Slash Odds on Tory Majority to Evens +++

Punters have switched from expecting a hung parliament to a Tory majority after the general election. Smart money or over exuberance?

+++ LIVE CHAT INTERACTIVE +++

@ 22.33

Boris Johnson 1.17 / 1.18

Ken Livingstone 6.4 / 6.8

Brian Paddick 370 / 490

@ 22.42

Betfair has First preference percentage share bets

Punters are backing Boris to have more than 40% and Ken to have between 35% to 40%.

Des Browne is chanting on Question Time “there is no issue of Gordon’s leadership” clearly this mantra is the offical “line to take”.

@ 23.05

Richard Littlejohn just right-hooked Polly Toynbee with a counter-punch when she asked what did he know about people on average wages. he retorted with an inquiry about her flights to her villa in Italy. She looked shaken and said “lets not get into this way”. Oh please do…

Told You So…

Now even Peter Riddell is writing off Labour maybe Guido should think about changing his bets. Six months ago it all looked so different didn’t it? You could have got 3/1 on the Tories being the biggest party. Not now…

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Betfair have opened up a market on the LibDem Leadership –

Clegg is hot favourite at less than evens.
Huhne is 13/5
Steve Webb is 15/1
Ed Davey is 36/1
Charles Kennedy is 40/1
Julia Goldsworthy is 40/1
Vince Cable

[…]

+ READ MORE +

3% Tory Lead Finishes Gordon’s Miserable Week

Graphic credit : ConservativeHome


Can you imagine the cackling of Cherie Blair? Tony sat beside her on the sofa drinking a decent bottle of Barolo, TV remote in hand, repeatedly rewinding the videotape of PMQs and cheering on Cameron in

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Last Man Standing

With Ming now facing the guillotine and Brown severely battered it is interesting to check what the bookies have done. The odds on Cameron being the only one of the three leading his party into the next election have been

[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Charles Clarke says Cameron is the most successful PM for over a century…

“Under Margaret Thatcher the Conservatives gained 99 seats. They lost 211 under John Major, gained one under William Hague, quickly and wisely got rid of Ian Duncan-Smith, gained 32 under Michael Howard and have so far gained 133 under David Cameron who, to the great surprise of many (including senior Conservatives), has turned out to be the most electorally successful Tory leader since 1900.”

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