Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Osborne Ties Up the Bookies

Given the last thirteen budgets have been dominated by cheap tactics and false flags, it was  no surprise George Osborne had a trick up his sleeve. Well closer to his collar actually:

The cunning coin-keeper chose a tie of bluey/green today which caused a bit of headache for Ladbrokes who were offering bets on both blue and green and had to pay up for both. At least someone was a winner out of this budget.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Coronation or Will Cruddas Stand?

Over at Politicalbetting.com thinks Jon Cruddas might throw his hat in the ring for the Labour Party leadership. Guido has spoken to a number of Labour insiders who are divided on the issue. Some say he has to come off the sidelines as a critic and do something now Brown is banished. Others doubt he has the bottle and think he’ll calculate he can’t win and chicken out. If he doesn’t stand it will be another coronation for David Miliband.

The bookies have this morning marked Cruddas up to second favourite ahead of Balls and Ed Miliband. Burnham hasn’t ruled himself out either…

UPDATE : On the basis of a tip and some clues Guido called Matthew MacGregor from Blue State Digital’s London office to ask if his firm was going to be running the Cruddas online operation.  No denial has been forthcoming, so with those clues and the sudden overnight movement on the betting markets it is “Game On” as they say in Labour’s new media circles…

Saturday, May 8, 2010

When Will Gordon Go?

As was widely predicted before the election, Gordon is still squatting in Downing Street. He doesn’t seem able to accept that he personally has been comprehensively rejected.

There is of course the possibility that the LibDems could prop up a Labour regime, but that at the moment is a theoretical possibility. The LibDems have made it pretty clear that the message is “don’t call us, we’ll call you”, in any event it wouldn’t be Gordon they would be calling. 

His demise is the first pre-condition of any possible deal…

UPDATE : Punters currently think that Brown has a 28% chance of still being Labour leader at the next PMQs – from either the opposition or government benches.  Meanwhile the next Labour leader betting is pretty busy, Miliband is runaway favourite for some reason, Darling is also well backed as a caretaker safe pair of hands.  Guido has a few quid on Hattie Harman…

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Final State of the Campaigns

Above is the Guy News poll of polls taken from tonight’s final round of polls. Below is where we started the campaign.  The big story is clear, the LibDems have gained massively from the TV debates taking 6% from the Tories and 4% from Labour.

The political markets currently rate the chances of a hung parliament at 59%. Punters are predicting a high turnout in the 70 to 75% range

Monday, May 3, 2010

Labour Third, Pollsters and Punters Expect Cameron to be PM

This is the latest rolling average of the last week’s polls.  Political punters give Cameron a 84% chance of being the next Prime Minister, which seems like a bit of a sell given punters currently make a hung parliament a 52% probability.

Drilling down onto seat numbers the punters are evenly divided rating the chances of the Tories getting between 300 and 324 seats, 2 short of an overall majority, at 29%.  They rate the chances of them getting a majority in the 325 to 349 range also at 29%.  The cliche “it is still all to play” for is absolutely true…

Thursday, April 22, 2010

State of the Campaigns : LibDems Peaking

The poll rise of the LibDems appears to have been checked in the averages, they are under a lot more scrutiny now with the front pages of the Tory press literally throwing the kitchen sink (on his expenses) at Clegg.  The whole ‘new politics’ baloney of a former corporate lobbyist who had lobbyists paying into his personal bank account isn’t really credible. If the Tories can get cut through on the hypocrisy of this they will undermine Clegg’s shiney newness.

YouGov’s daily tracker last night put the Tories back in front swapping places with the LibDems, Labour cement their third place poll position:

  • Conservative 33%
  • Liberal Democrat 31%
  • Labour 27%
  • Others 9%

The betting on the Politics Markets this morning makes Clegg the slight favourite to be the winner of the TV debate tonight: Nick Clegg 59%, David Cameron 58%, Gordon Brown 9%.  YouGov will have their instant feedback debate poll a little after 10pm…

Monday, April 19, 2010

It’s Not Just the Leaders Debating
Hague, Miliband and Davey Next

Given the profound effect ninety minutes of television has had on the fickle electorate, it will be worth keeping an eye on the other debates happening in the run up to polling day.

The Daily Politics have organised almost all of the contenders for the senior cabinet positions to have a grilling from Andrew Neil. Today sees the first of such battles between William Hague, David Miliband and Ed Davey. The Beeb’s specialist reporter in each field will also be taking part in the interrogation.

If you want to put your money where your mouth is, Smarkets punters right now reckon Hague is still favourite to be the next foreign secretary and Ed Davey has only a 12% chance of getting the job. The fun and games begin this afternoon on BBC Two at 14.15. Miliband has been on fighting form butting the boot into the Tories since the campaign began, though anyone should be wary of entering the ring with Hague. Especially Davey who is notoriously dull on camera…

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Punters Backing LibDems

As Comres joins YouGov in making the LibDems the second placed party, Graham Sharpe, William Hill’s spinner, emails Guido to say that seven out of every ten political bets they took were for a Lib Dem win :- ‘Pre-debate the Lib Dems would be doing well if one in every ten bet was for them, but their support turned from a trickle to a flood on Friday with a mass of modest bets of up to £100 pouring on them to win with an overall majority or to be the largest single Party, with the larger bets were placed by regular political pundits backing a Hung Parliament.‘ A hung parliament maybe, but backing LibDems to win outright?

If you are bullish about the LibDems here is how the punters rate their chances tonight from on Political Smarkets, the specialist bookies:

Cable looks cheap and worth backing at 21% given the polls are pointing to a hung parliament. Gordon would give him the chancellorship for a Lib-Lab pact at the drop of a hat.

Friday, April 16, 2010

Clegg : Winning Here!


On Tuesday Guido predicted that Clegg would be the big winner, and so it came to pass.  Bad Al Campbell and Mandy must now realise that they have an impossible job to do in polishing the turd that is Gordon Brown.  Mrs Fawkes was scathing about the stiffness of Dave who did seem to be playing it safe too much. Labour and Tory spinners are reluctantly conceding victory to Clegg, before saying their guy came second.

In reality the slightly more objective measures, the immediate reaction polls, are unanimously scoring it Clegg first, Cameron second and Gordon last.

The focus group reactions will be studied carefully in the party campaign HQs and the leaders messages will be recalibrated for next Thursday accordingly.  The punters’ smart money at specialist bookmakers Political Smarkets went from heavily backing Cameron to making Clegg favourite to win the debate half-way through the ninety minutes.  Punters this morning reckon there is a 25% chance Clegg will win all three debates and a 60% chance that Brown will win none.  Guido thinks that it is a racing certainty that Brown is a no hoper in the debates…

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Labour Site Becomes Tweet Spin Room

Labour’s trusted twitterers are on the front page of the party’s website, further confirming the belief in Labour circles that twitter is some kind of alternative to democracy.  They have made sure that it won’t be easily hacked.  Not sure what the value is – presumably they are hoping that hacks will consult the page to see what the Labour faithful think of the debate.  A virtual twitter spin room… hmmm…  come back to Guido’s later this evening for a rival virtual twitter spin room…

Spin is cheap, punters put their money where their mouth is, currently the punters on Political Smarkets rate the chances of victory for the leaders in the debates thus:

16:45 David Cameron 55%  Nick Clegg 48% Gordon Brown 29%

18:30 David Cameron 65%  Nick Clegg 48% Gordon Brown 20%

Gordon’s price has improved from this morning where punters where giving him only a 10% chance of winning* tonight’s debate, Clegg was favourite though in late betting Cameron has pulled ahead.   All to play for…

*Winning defined by ICM’s post debate polling results.


Seen Elsewhere

Tories Attack Labour on Tax | Mark Wallace
UKIP No Flash In Pan | Matthew Goodwin
12 Signs It’s Time to Get Out of Gaza | Slate
Mars Lawyers Slam Plain Packaging | CityAM
HealthCare.gov Construction Cost $840 Million | Wall Street Journal
Why Do Feminists Oppose Stay-at-Home Mothers? | Laura Perrins
Chris Cook’s “Excellent Journalism” | Iain Dale
The Deficit Hasn’t Gone Away | Tim Montgomerie
Doctors Against Burnham | Mail
Privatisation is Good for the NHS | John McTernan
Keep Juncker’s Hands Off the City | Allister Heath


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Knifed former civil service chief Bob Kerslake on his recent troubles:

“Many thks for kind wishes following back opn. Incision measured 16cm. A pretty big knife in the back! Photos on request.”



TJ says:

And i’ve noticed that 100% of Guido Fawkes staff are men. Looks like Guido has a woman problem. Or is it an hypocrisy problem?


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