The Success Benchmark : How Many Will Watch the Debate tonight?

After months of speculation, hype, arguments, tantrums and rule changes the first of the debates are finally here. Guido hears that after all the effort that Sky News put in to make the debates happen, they might be a little miffed that they won’t be chairing the first of its kind. But what will tonight actually achieve for the political class and more importantly how many will actually watch?

Ten million people watch Coronation Street, a similar number tuned in to Doctor Who on Saturday. Eight million tuned into see Nick Griffin on Question Time. The BBC are sending over sixty staff to cover ITV’s debate, so who know’s how much taxpayers cash will be spent when it’s actually their turn. For these debates to be worth the millions being spent they need to be a game-changer and need to pull in the viewers.  They need, in the jargon of spin, to get cut-through…

The smart money seems to be on nine to thirteen million viewers, less than a quarter of the forty-five million registered voters. Guido has a feeling the debates may just be stirring up apathy…

State of the Campaigns

Tonight is debate night, the single event with the potential to alter the direction of the campaign more than any other. Punters on the PoliticSmarkets website can bet on who will win the debate tonight : the smart money gives Gordon Brown a 10% chance of emerging victorious, David Cameron a 47% chance and makes Nick Clegg the narrow favourite with a 48% probability of winning tonight’s debate.  In one sense Clegg is already the winner just by getting equal billing…

Who Has Really Learnt About Campaigning from Obama?

A few months ago Guido was speaking at events and pontificating on panels with politicians who were going on about how they had learnt from Obama’s campaign.  We were told there was going to be online fund raising on a major scale in the manner of Obama.

So far as Guido can tell Compass, 38 Degrees, Old Holborn and Anna Raccoon‘s smoking landlord campaign, MyConservatives.com, YouFund.Me.uk and the Taxpayers’ Alliance are the only groups successfully raising money from the many via small online donations resulting from advertising and email lists.  Even so we are talking thousands of pounds rather than tens of thousands of pounds.  Labour’s efforts so far have not borne much fruit by all accounts.

The stand out candidate who has raised more online than any other candidate ever is Antony Calvert, who is standing against Ed Balls in Morley & Outwood.  Although trying to over-turn a notional majority of 9,000 against the Unite-backed bruiser, Ed Ball’s price at the bookies has steadily moved in from sure-fire favourite towards only a 50% chance of  him holding his seat.  Antony Calvert  is running him neck and neck.  Why is that?  Could it be because Antony Calvert is Britain’s unlikely answer to Obama, having raised more money in small online donations than other candidate in Britain.  George Osborne singled out Calvert’s campaign for praise in a speech to CCHQ staffers, calling it “a castration strategy”.

The truth is, if Antony Calvert takes Morley and Outwood, he will be Britain’s first digital election winner…

(Incidentally, you can donate to his campaign here and you can bet on him winning Morely & Outwood at PoliticSmarkets.)

VIP Maguire Enjoys the 'Sport of Kings' at Cheltenham

Kevin Maguire never tires of telling us thatnothing is too good for the workers so it was no surprise when a co-conspirator sent this picture of our Kevin with the toffs in the VIP enclosure at Cheltenham.

Guido’s tipster at the races revealed that Kevin had the “Premier” package, including a table for the day, champagne reception, morning coffee, 4 course luncheon including wine, afternoon tea and a complimentary bar.

Whilst his mate Charlie Whelan brings the country to a halt Kevin was enjoying the sport of kings and cheering on his bets. 

Guido caught up with Kevin yesterday just before the last 5.15 race, it was clearly a long hard day:

Kevin Maguire Blackberry bloke was so obvious it was laughable.
Guido Fawkes You could have smiled.
KM Got any tips for the 5.15?
GF Free World at 7/1
KM I’ll put £5 on cause couldn’t bear it to win and not be on.

It lost.

Get Down to William Hill Fast

Just got £100 on Labour to win Glasgow East tonight @ 1/2. A 50% return overnight?  Seems way too generous.  Labour should be home easily…

Guido Laid Widdecombe

That is not something many can say. Laid her at the bookies on Betfair of course. Selling her price down….

UPDATE : Sir George Young has gone favourite in late betting.

Punters Shun Bercow, Beckett Now Favourite Horse for Speaker

speaker-betting

Nag BeckettLadbrokes spokesman Robin Hutchison says: “Bercow has been drumming up support since Michael Martin announced he was stepping down. But his chances now appear to have gone for a walk.” Punters on Betfair have also shifted the smart money onto Beckett, making her the new favourite.  Bercow has come across badly at hustings, proving that the more you know Bercow, the less you like him.  The realisation is also growing on the Labour benches that as Speaker he will be like a football referee who thinks the crowd are cheering for him.

There are is also a suggestion that his “back story”, the supposed “journey” from the right to the left under his wife’s influence, will not withstand scrutiny.  Her political past is a little more interesting than hitherto has been understood…

Euro Results

Euro Vote 09Everyman and his blog is doing an election results service based on, well, mostly watching TV, so Guido won’t bother with that. Very disappointed that Guido’s Libertas vote looks like it went to waste. At the New Ross polling station in Wexford on Friday a neighbour said “it is our job to choose between the liars”. Wise words.

Hoping UKIP beat Labour, very worried that Dan Hannan may have won his bet that Labour will come fifth in his region. Due to Pimms-related intoxication Guido offered him 10/1 odds. Ouch, think it is bedtime for Guido…

Nick Griffin Gordon Brown

UPDATE : Nick Griffin will be thanking Gordon Brown tonight.  He could not have done it without him. Brown has achieved one policy goal, he got a British job for one British worker, the British National Party candidate who is going to Brussels.  Labour MPs should reflect on that, do they fear losing their jobs in an election more than they loathe the BNP.  As long as they keep a Scot who can’t connect with English working class voters as leader, the stronger the BNP becomes.

Grand National Tip

Guido got a call yesterday from the Spectator

Speccie : Who are you tipping for the Grand National?

Guido : No idea, when is it?

Speccie : An Irishman who knows nothing about horses?

Guido : I know one thing, don’t take any tips from Peter Oborne.

[…]

+ READ MORE +

C’mon ComRes

Has the arrest of Damian Green and the hiking of beer and income taxes boosted Labour massively? ComRes has Labour up 4% to only 1% behind the Tories (down 6%).

The ComRes national numbers are Con 37%(-6), Lab 36%(+4), Lib 17%(+5).[…]

+ READ MORE +

Glenrothes : Punters V Pundits, Round II

Over at Politicalbetting.com Mike Smithson is encouraging the punters to vote on who they think is going to win the Glenrothes by-election – Labour or the SNP?
  • As of 0900 this morning the punters (after 200 votes) are splitting 61% for the SNP and 39% for Labour.
[…]

+ READ MORE +

McCain – Is He Really Out of the Race?

Betfair is offering 5/1 on a McCain victory. That seems a bit steep for a two horse race. Sure he is behind, sure Palin is appalling the East Coast liberal media and the BBC, but 5/1?

Tempting odds for a value bet.

[…]

+ READ MORE +

PLP Changes Bets

The collapse of the Miliband putsch and reports from the PLP that there is to be an end to hostilities” has made Guido shift his bets. Guido is now backing a May 2010 general election date with the Labour Party led by Gordon Brown.
[…]

+ READ MORE +

+++ FSA Bans Short Selling +++

First they came for the capitalists…

(Guido is short FTSE Futures. What are you going to do Gordon?)

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Calling the Brown Bottom*

Back in August 2007 when Brown was walking on water and the Tories were arguing over grammar schools, Guido put money on the Tories (at 3/1) being the biggest party in parliament post a General Election.
It is worth checking the comments to see how crazy people thought it at the time.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Punters Favour Winter Exit for Brown

Punters on Betfair make a post party conference exit for Brown favourite at 5/2, with the odds on him lasting another year lengthening to 9/1. Could he be shown the door under the guise of ill-health? The contempt in which he is held in private by his own party is pitiful.
[…]

+ READ MORE +



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team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

David Cowling, the BBC’s head of political research, in an internal memo…

“It seems to me that the London bubble has to burst if there is to be any prospect of addressing the issues that have brought us to our current situation. There are many millions of people in the UK who do not enthuse about diversity and do not embrace metropolitan values yet do not consider themselves lesser human beings for all that. Until their values and opinions are acknowledged and respected, rather than ignored and despised, our present discord will persist. Because these discontents run very wide and very deep and the metropolitan political class, confronted by them, seems completely bewildered and at a loss about how to respond (“who are these ghastly people and where do they come from?” doesn’t really hack it). The 2016 EU referendum has witnessed the cashing in of some very bitter bankable grudges but I believe that, throughout this 2016 campaign, Europe has been the shadow not the substance.”

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