Late Money Coming in on Bellingham


Those candidates with a suspicious mind might insist on an observer in the room when the ballot boxes are opened. The clerks are running the election, and it’s not their area of expertise. While they know little if anything of box-swapping and ballot stuffing. These days you just can’t rely on anyone…

The Deputy Speaker election starts at 11.30 with voting open until 14.00, but the late mover is Henry Bellingham after he impressed at both the 1922 and the PLP. Paddy Power have him at 7/4 with Laing still the favourite at 6/4:

Guido’s money is still on Laing…

Paddy Power: Betting Tips for the Reshuffle

Guido Fawkes Paddy Power

What should you do with all the money you made taking Guido’s tip to stick your cash on UKIP for the local elections? Over at the Paddy Power Blog, Guido studies the form for the reshuffle, will a woman be promoted into the chumocracy?

Shock as ComRes Poll Puts UKIP on 22%

comres-locals-poll

If you took Guido’s advice yesterday morning you could have got evens on UKIP getting  50 seats. Guido got a bit greedy after lunch:

After last night’s poll those odds are now 10/1 on

Back UKIP at Evens to Take 50 Seats

Guido Fawkes Paddy Power

The political establishment is gunning for UKIP, Ken Clarke calls them “clowns”, the newspapers are running front page anti-UKIP stories focusing on some of the oddballs who have attached themselves to the fast growing party. Will the all-party, all-papers attack on the anti-politics party halt UKIP’s progress against the media headwind? This morning on the BBC’s Today programme, John Humphreys claimed UKIP’s support came from taxi-drivers – we’ll find out on Friday if their support is a little more broadly based than the BBC makes out.

Over at the Paddy Power Blog, Guido makes the case for betting on UKIP taking more than 50 seats…

Ashcroft Eastleigh Poll Says Game On

Source: Guardian.

Toby Helm’s Twitter Spat With Gove SpAds

Huge handbags on Twitter this week between the Observer’s Toby Helm and the CCHQ @ToryEducation Twitter account. The Tory tweeter told Helm “You’re like Baldwin and Campbell – an activist, not a professional hack”, provoking paroxysms of rage from the Labour Party press office’s favourite broadsheet channel. Particularly after they called Helm a Labour stooge. This will apparently spill over into the paper this weekend when The Observer is going to allege that it is part of a scandalous McBride/Draper style dirty tricks operation. Guido understands that Helm reckons it could bring down Michael Gove…

Judge the robust exchange for yourself:

https://twitter.com/toryeducation/status/295633641202126849

https://twitter.com/toryeducation/status/295647362519539712

It is unclear to Guido whether or not the account is run officially or unofficially from CCHQ or by Gove’s SpAds, or what the exact rules about this would be. As is so often the way with Twitter, exchanges are strongly worded. SpAds are supposed to operate within civil service limitations.  A strongly worded written letter of admonishment to a SpAd from the permanent secretary may result. Not exactly enough to bring down the Secretary of State…

UPDATE: Looks like Toby has been down the bookies:

Paddy Power: Odds on Jesse Norman

Guido Fawkes Paddy Power

Over at the Paddy Power Blog, Guido studies the form for a bet on the Next Tory Leader…

Letwin Settles Up – Bins Carbon Reduction Global Agreement

Another nail in the husky coffin as Cabinet Office Minister Oliver Letwin concedes defeat to Nigel Lawson and accepts that the Kyoto Treaty is dead and nothing will be following it. Back in 2008 the two men made a bet, the details of which were published in a Standpoint interview:

Oliver Lewtin: I’d be very happy to have a wager, and I offer you a £100 bet that before either of us is dead, whichever is the first — our estates can pay — we will see a very substantial agreement on carbon reduction.

Nigel Lawson: But I don’t think I want the bet to be “in my lifetime” because I’d like to get the £100. I’m sorry it’s such a modest amount you’re prepared to wager — it shows how unconfident you are — but I would like to be able to collect before I die. So I think we should say “by the time Kyoto runs out”, because there is meant to be no hiatus; there is meant to be a successor to Kyoto. So “by 2012 we will have the agreement” — maybe I’ll die before then, of course —but 2012 is the acid test.

Oliver Letwin: On the same basis, Nigel, I’m perfectly willing to take that bet too. The reason I’m willing to take the bet is that I know that the only way it can be made to happen is if we try to make it happen and if we build up the moral authority to make it happen by taking the steps ourselves.

Letwin has apparently now agreed to settle the bet. Lord Lawson is on a bit of victory lap this afternoon:

“Oliver is one of the nicest people in politics, and one of the cleverest. It is, however, disconcerting that UK climate change policy – which makes no conceivable sense in the absence of a binding global agreement – has been based on the advice of someone so totally divorced from any understanding of practical realities.”

Well quite.

Bet Against Ed’s Mo Farah Tip

andy-murraySpeaking this week Ed Miliband backed Mo Farah to become BBC Sports Personality of the Year tomorrow. This was a clever bit of populism that helped get his speech reported widely. Will the Son of Jonah Brown continue his curse? […]

+ READ MORE +

Labour Panicking About Rotherham
HQ Diverting Resources North

Labour insiders are getting nervous about Rotherham after this weekend’s Labour council omnishambles. With Respect’s Yvonne Ridley now at 5/1, Labour HQ are […]

+ READ MORE +

Follow the Money

There is an editorial split in the Guy Newsroom over Hunt: Neo-Guido thinks he’s politically toast, but Guido cannot see any LEGAL bullet that will force him out, yet. If you disagree Guido is the offer on Smarkets and is […]

+ READ MORE +

Labour Go Favourite to Be Largest Party
First Time Since May 2010

Since the the 2010 general election the bookies and punters have consistently made the Tories favourites to be the largest party in parliament after the next election. Until now.

Since the budget fiasco punters have been pushing the odds closer. […]

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Liam Fox shreds Cameron’s Calais scaremongering:

“Sad and disappointed to see our Prime Minister stoop to this level of scaremongering, especially as he knows the Calais agreement is nothing to do with the EU and agreed between the two govts”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Squandermania: Roof Not Fixed Squandermania: Roof Not Fixed
OSBORNE’S BROTHER STRUCK OFF: READ RULING, THREATENING EMAILS OSBORNE’S BROTHER STRUCK OFF: READ RULING, THREATENING EMAILS
HAPPY AS LARRY: SANDERS NEW GREEN PARTY SPOKESPERSON HAPPY AS LARRY: SANDERS NEW GREEN PARTY SPOKESPERSON
LABOUR CAMPAIGN CHIEF: “WE HAD NO STRATEGY” LABOUR CAMPAIGN CHIEF: “WE HAD NO STRATEGY”
CLEGG’S ASTRONOMICAL SPAD BILL HYPOCRISY CLEGG’S ASTRONOMICAL SPAD BILL HYPOCRISY
STRICTLY CYMRU DANCING: LEANNE WOOD’S WONDERFUL WALTZ STRICTLY CYMRU DANCING: LEANNE WOOD’S WONDERFUL WALTZ
LEAVE AHEAD WITH ICM LEAVE AHEAD WITH ICM
HAPPY ‘I HEART UNIONS’ DAY HAPPY ‘I HEART UNIONS’ DAY
CORBYN WEARS SPONSORS’ BADGE CORBYN WEARS SPONSORS’ BADGE
Open Minded Herbert’s Made His Mind Up Open Minded Herbert’s Made His Mind Up
Amazon’s Lawyers Prepare for Zombie Apocalypse Amazon’s Lawyers Prepare for Zombie Apocalypse
PMQs (Rap Version) PMQs (Rap Version)
Top Europhile Defects to Out Campaign Top Europhile Defects to Out Campaign
BARROSO: BRAKE WON’T PUT OFF MIGRANTS BARROSO: BRAKE WON’T PUT OFF MIGRANTS
PESTON OUT OF THE LOOP PESTON OUT OF THE LOOP
LABOUR’S CONSISTENT FLIP-FLOPPING ON SURVEILLANCE LABOUR’S CONSISTENT FLIP-FLOPPING ON SURVEILLANCE
UBER TRIES TO KILL HAILO UBER TRIES TO KILL HAILO
CALAMITY CORBYN’S COMICAL CAMPAIGN COCK-UP CALAMITY CORBYN’S COMICAL CAMPAIGN COCK-UP
PARLIAMENTARY PANCAKE RACE (INSERT MANDATORY TOSSER JOKE HERE) PARLIAMENTARY PANCAKE RACE (INSERT MANDATORY TOSSER JOKE HERE)
SADIQ LOSES IT WITH BBC JOURNALIST OVER TFL FARES SUMS SADIQ LOSES IT WITH BBC JOURNALIST OVER TFL FARES SUMS
FRENCH GOVERNMENT DISPUTES CAMERON ON CALAIS FRENCH GOVERNMENT DISPUTES CAMERON ON CALAIS
EX-LABOUR MINISTER COMES OUT FOR BREXIT EX-LABOUR MINISTER COMES OUT FOR BREXIT
EU GOING TO PAY FOR THAT? EU GOING TO PAY FOR THAT?
TORY MPS PAN CAM’S CALAIS SCAREMONGERING TORY MPS PAN CAM’S CALAIS SCAREMONGERING
LEAK: LANSMAN MOCKS “CLUELESS” UNITE CHIEF LEAK: LANSMAN MOCKS “CLUELESS” UNITE CHIEF
CARSWELL: “NOT GOING TO CRITICISE FELLOW EUROSCEPTICS” CARSWELL: “NOT GOING TO CRITICISE FELLOW EUROSCEPTICS”
SUNNY DAYS AHEAD FOR SCRAPBOOK SUNNY DAYS AHEAD FOR SCRAPBOOK
HOW MANY MPS DOES IT TAKE TO CHANGE A SOAP DISPENSER? HOW MANY MPS DOES IT TAKE TO CHANGE A SOAP DISPENSER?
KEN PREDICTS MCDONNELL WILL BE NEXT LABOUR LEADER KEN PREDICTS MCDONNELL WILL BE NEXT LABOUR LEADER
Don’t Criticise Fellow Brexiteers Don’t Criticise Fellow Brexiteers