Miliband’s Evasiveness on SNP Getting Cut Through

ONE-DOES-NOT

The polling evidence and anecdotal reports from the doorstep suggesting the need for Miliband to do a deal with the SNP is getting cut through to voters has got Tory morale up. Miliband’s claims that he won’t do a deal are widely disbelieved, because voters can see from the polls that would mean he would not be going to Downing Street. Betting on the Tories being the biggest party gets you a 20% return on your money by Friday down at Ladbrokes…

10 Days Until Dan Hodges Streaks Naked Down Whitehall

Back in 2012 renowned political soothsayer Dan Hodges made this now infamous vow:

We’ll be counting down until the event, presumably taking place anytime from Friday, May 8 onwards.

dileo

Guido also has a bet on with Dan that Douglas Carswell will be re-elected. Safe.

If UKIP poll above 6% in ten days’ time, there are going to be a lot of confused tourists in Westminster…

Damian McBride: My 20/1 solution to the three-pipe problem that is the next DPM

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Former political spin-doctor and pub quiz enthusiast Damian McBride takes you through the runners for the post of Deputy Prime Minister with the latest odds from Paddy Power.

If you think the outcome of the election is difficult to call, just take a look at Paddy’s superb new market on the identity of the next Deputy Prime Minister. As Sherlock Holmes said in The Red-Headed League, “it is quite a three pipe problem, and I beg that you won’t speak to me for fifty minutes.” Well, pipe at the ready, let me try and solve the case a bit quicker than that.

Favourite in the betting is ‘no-one’ at 7/4, reflecting the fact that there’s no genuine need – either constitutional or practical – for the PM to appoint a deputy. That said, we’ve had a Deputy PM in place during 27 of the last 36 years, so whether we’ve got a minority government, a majority or a coalition, there’s a decent chance the modern tradition will continue. So my fellow detectives, who are the candidates?

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Which MPs Will Lose Their Seats In May?

Given the polls are all over the place and the pundits are running out of ways to say that they have no idea what is actually going to happen, we’re left to follow the money. Bet2015 shows the live betting odds in each seat and which ones are going to change hands, as well as projecting the national picture based on the insight from the turf accountants. Right now it’s showing a dead heat between the Tories and Labour:

You might recognise at least half of those behind the site:


Bookies think Reckless will lose, that the polls are overestimating the SNP and the Liberals won’t be completely screwed. Track it here.

Flood of Pre-Speech Bets on Clegg to Quit

As Clegg decides what he is going to wear for his speech at 1pm, Paddy Power have slashed the odds on him to announce he will quit as LibDem leader before the election:

This comes on the back of an element of stirring last night:

If you reckon he’s got a very big rabbit coming this afternoon you can put your money where your mouth is here

We Had An Edge

demos

Guido feels he had a bit of an unfair edge in the Demos / DeHavilland fantasy politics conference season game when it came to the “biggest own goal of conference season” category. Still it’s not over yet, even if hardly anyone is going to LibDem conference…

Paddy Power: Clacton Carswell Betting

Guido Fawkes Paddy Power

What should you do with all the money you made taking Guido’s tip to stick your cash on UKIP for the Euro elections? Guido studies the form and gives his take on the Clacton by-election over at the Paddy Power Blog

Ruffley Odds On To Resign

ruffley

Paddy Power have opened a book on whether or not David Ruffley will make it to the general election as a Tory MP:

Ruffley WILL be the Tory candidate for Bury St Edmunds next year: 5/4

Ruffley WON’T be the Tory candidate for Bury St Edmunds next year: 4/7

Get your bets on here before the odds shorten…

Pollsters’ Final Euro-Election Calls


euros-final-call

Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight.[…]

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Politically Correct Chris Smith Censors Advert

You might have thought Environment Agency boss Chris Smith would be concentrating on the floods but no, today he is busy with his other far more important quango job in charge of the Advertising Standards Authority. Smith’s censorious bunch of self-appointed bureaucrats have made yet another politically correct judgement in an area they should not go into.[…]

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Cameron Optimistic for 2014 Pundits Divided for 2015

dc-14
Dave’s New Year message is essentially “The plan is working… Our recovery is real, but it’s also fragile, and there are more difficult decisions ahead” translation: more cuts coming. Electing the two Eds into government would mean their “economic madness would devastate this country.” The dig at French Hollibandism is well judged, “more borrowing, more spending and more debt” leads to “increasing unemployment, industrial stagnation and enterprise in free fall.[…]

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Laing Wins Deputy Speakership

eleanor

As predicted (and bet on) by Guido, Laing survived six rounds of Single Transferable Votes to take the Deputy Speakership.

Of the 551 votes case she eventually got 273.

Trebles all round in Strangers.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Late Money Coming in on Bellingham


Those candidates with a suspicious mind might insist on an observer in the room when the ballot boxes are opened. The clerks are running the election, and it’s not their area of expertise. While they know little if anything of box-swapping and ballot stuffing.[…]

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Paddy Power: Betting Tips for the Reshuffle

Guido Fawkes Paddy Power

What should you do with all the money you made taking Guido’s tip to stick your cash on UKIP for the local elections? Over at the Paddy Power Blog, Guido studies the form for the reshuffle, will a woman be promoted into the chumocracy?[…]

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Shock as ComRes Poll Puts UKIP on 22%

comres-locals-poll

If you took Guido’s advice yesterday morning you could have got evens on UKIP getting  50 seats. Guido got a bit greedy after lunch:

[…]

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Back UKIP at Evens to Take 50 Seats

Guido Fawkes Paddy Power

The political establishment is gunning for UKIP, Ken Clarke calls them “clowns”, the newspapers are running front page anti-UKIP stories focusing on some of the oddballs who have attached themselves to the fast growing party. Will the all-party, all-papers attack on the anti-politics party halt UKIP’s progress against the media headwind?[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Owen Smith backs one hour contracts but wants to abolish zero hours contracts:

“You need to give people a contract to say, ‘here’s what you will be working’. It could be one, but I’m saying it shouldn’t be zero, we should invert that emphasis.”

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