Guido is conflicted. On the one hand, a Labour Party led by Comrade Corbyn would be a source of much merriment and material. On on the other hand, believing that the majority of the Labour rank and file have not gone mad and that peak Corbyn will pass, Guido has been laying him on Betfair. If you really think Corbyn can do it, Guido is happy to take your money…
Yvette seems to have decided to shift her rhetoric leftwards and become the no-change candidate, re-endorsing the 50p tax rate, aspiration-crushing Mansion taxes and even arguing against the £23,000 benefits cap for Londoners – despite there being plenty of jobs available in London. As Burnham spins his love of business and bashes benefits-for-nothing, Yvette is telling Labour activists what they want to hear. Guido frankly thinks her third placed 6/1 long odds don’t make sense…
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Just four more nominations will take Yvette Cooper to the final round…
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The polling evidence and anecdotal reports from the doorstep suggesting the need for Miliband to do a deal with the SNP is getting cut through to voters has got Tory morale up. Miliband’s claims that he won’t do a deal are widely disbelieved, because voters can see from the polls that would mean he would not be going to Downing Street. Betting on the Tories being the biggest party gets you a 20% return on your money by Friday down at Ladbrokes…
Back in 2012 renowned political soothsayer Dan Hodges made this now infamous vow:
We’ll be counting down until the event, presumably taking place anytime from Friday, May 8 onwards.
Guido also has a bet on with Dan that Douglas Carswell will be re-elected. Safe.
If UKIP poll above 6% in ten days’ time, there are going to be a lot of confused tourists in Westminster…
Given the polls are all over the place and the pundits are running out of ways to say that they have no idea what is actually going to happen, we’re left to follow the money. Bet2015 shows the live betting odds in each seat and which ones are going to change hands, as well as projecting the national picture based on the insight from the turf accountants. Right now it’s showing a dead heat between the Tories and Labour:
You might recognise at least half of those behind the site:
Bookies think Reckless will lose, that the polls are overestimating the SNP and the Liberals won’t be completely screwed. Track it here.
As Clegg decides what he is going to wear for his speech at 1pm, Paddy Power have slashed the odds on him to announce he will quit as LibDem leader before the election:
This comes on the back of an element of stirring last night:
If you reckon he’s got a very big rabbit coming this afternoon you can put your money where your mouth is here…
Paddy Power have opened a book on whether or not David Ruffley will make it to the general election as a Tory MP:
Ruffley WILL be the Tory candidate for Bury St Edmunds next year: 5/4
Ruffley WON’T be the Tory candidate for Bury St Edmunds next year: 4/7
Get your bets on here before the odds shorten…[…]
Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight.[…]
You might have thought Environment Agency boss Chris Smith would be concentrating on the floods but no, today he is busy with his other far more important quango job in charge of the Advertising Standards Authority. Smith’s censorious bunch of self-appointed bureaucrats have made yet another politically correct judgement in an area they should not go into.[…]
Dave’s New Year message is essentially “The plan is working… Our recovery is real, but it’s also fragile, and there are more difficult decisions ahead” translation: more cuts coming. Electing the two Eds into government would mean their “economic madness would devastate this country.” The dig at French Hollibandism is well judged, “more borrowing, more spending and more debt” leads to “increasing unemployment, industrial stagnation and enterprise in free fall.[…]
Those candidates with a suspicious mind might insist on an observer in the room when the ballot boxes are opened. The clerks are running the election, and it’s not their area of expertise. While they know little if anything of box-swapping and ballot stuffing.[…]