What should you do with all the money you made taking Guido’s tip to stick your cash on UKIP for the Euro elections? Guido studies the form and gives his take on the Clacton by-election over at the Paddy Power Blog…
Paddy Power have opened a book on whether or not David Ruffley will make it to the general election as a Tory MP:
Ruffley WILL be the Tory candidate for Bury St Edmunds next year: 5/4
Ruffley WON’T be the Tory candidate for Bury St Edmunds next year: 4/7
Get your bets on here before the odds shorten…
Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight. You can still – at time of going to pixel – get a 20% return betting on UKIP to win or quintuple your money on Labour. Good luck…
N.B. Any pollster who feels misrepresented (they are sensitive types) should get in touch and we will correct the chart.
You might have thought Environment Agency boss Chris Smith would be concentrating on the floods but no, today he is busy with his other far more important quango job in charge of the Advertising Standards Authority. Smith’s censorious bunch of self-appointed bureaucrats have made yet another politically correct judgement in an area they should not go into. Following Labour’s call this morning to withdraw the bet, Labour Lord Smith’s ASA is telling Paddy Power to take down its Oscar Pistorius bet advert.
“We have today ordered that a national press ad for the bookmaker, Paddy Power be withdrawn with immediate effect. On the back of an unprecedented number of complaints, we are investigating whether the ad is offensive for trivialising the issues surrounding a murder trial, the death of a woman and disability; we are also challenging whether, in doing so, it brings the good reputation of advertising generally into dispute. Following the complaints, ASA Chairman, Lord Smith, has taken the unusual step of directing the advertiser to withdraw the ad from circulation pending the outcome of the investigation.”
Thousands of peoples’ homes are underwater but don’t worry, Chris Smith is making sure no one is offended by an advert by a betting company. The ASA has “investigated” and made “rulings” on anti-gay marriage adverts, anti-environmentalist adverts, Fathers4Justice adverts, pro-hanging adverts – do you see a politically correct agenda here? They should stay out of politically contentious advertising.
Dave’s New Year message is essentially “The plan is working… Our recovery is real, but it’s also fragile, and there are more difficult decisions ahead” translation: more cuts coming. Electing the two Eds into government would mean their “economic madness would devastate this country.” The dig at French Hollibandism is well judged, “more borrowing, more spending and more debt” leads to “increasing unemployment, industrial stagnation and enterprise in free fall. The opposite of what’s happening here”. Expect a lot more of this before next year’s election…
Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting.com still reckons the Tories are doomed, he has three-figure bets at evens with Dan Hodges and Harry Phibbs (of ConservativeHome) that the Tories won’t win most seats. He says it is “very hard to see a pathway to a Conservative majority.” UKIP of course stands in their way…
Dan Hodges argues that 2013 was a disastrous year for Ed Miliband, whereas at the end of 2012 Labour’s YouGov daily poll average lead was 11.3%, as 2013 ends it has fallen to 6%. Ed Miliband’s personal YouGov approval rating was -21%, it has now fallen to -34%. Only Ted Heath has won an election from opposition with anything like such negative personal ratings.
Even as the Tories and LibDems have overseen a rising economy only UKIP can claim a good year, yet many pundits seem to have subjectively upgraded Miliband’s chances of getting into 10 Downing Street despite, objectively, the polling numbers worsening for him. Andrew Cooper, the pollster whom the PM replaced in Downing Street with Lynton Crosby, last night tweeted out facts repeatedly muttered by Blairites:
No opposition party has ever gone on to win the next election from the poll position Labour is in now
— Andrew Cooper (@AndrewCooper__) December 31, 2013
No leader of the opposition has ever gone on to become Prime Minister with ratings anywhere near as bad as Ed Miliband's.
— Andrew Cooper (@AndrewCooper__) December 31, 2013
Someone once correctly said “there are no rules in politics”. That triple election winner was right. Guido makes it too close to call…
Those candidates with a suspicious mind might insist on an observer in the room when the ballot boxes are opened. The clerks are running the election, and it’s not their area of expertise. While they know little if anything of box-swapping and ballot stuffing. These days you just can’t rely on anyone…
The Deputy Speaker election starts at 11.30 with voting open until 14.00, but the late mover is Henry Bellingham after he impressed at both the 1922 and the PLP. Paddy Power have him at 7/4 with Laing still the favourite at 6/4:
Guido’s money is still on Laing…
What should you do with all the money you made taking Guido’s tip to stick your cash on UKIP for the local elections? Over at the Paddy Power Blog, Guido studies the form for the reshuffle, will a woman be promoted into the chumocracy?
If you took Guido’s advice yesterday morning you could have got evens on UKIP getting 50 seats. Guido got a bit greedy after lunch:
Just been round various bookies in the West End putting £50 bets on UKIP to do well so as not to move the market.
— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) April 30, 2013
After last night’s poll those odds are now 10/1 on…
The political establishment is gunning for UKIP, Ken Clarke calls them “clowns”, the newspapers are running front page anti-UKIP stories focusing on some of the oddballs who have attached themselves to the fast growing party. Will the all-party, all-papers attack on the anti-politics party halt UKIP’s progress against the media headwind? This morning on the BBC’s Today programme, John Humphreys claimed UKIP’s support came from taxi-drivers – we’ll find out on Friday if their support is a little more broadly based than the BBC makes out.
What We Learned From the Referendum | FT
Scottish Crisis Moves South | Nick Wood
English Democrats Accidentally Celebrate Yes Victory | Pink News
Union In Its Current Form is Dead | Janan Ganesh
Labour Could Be Split in Two | Sun
Ashcroft Poll: Why Scotland Voted No | Buzzfeed
Boris: Change Barnett Formula | Sun
Cameron is Back | Dan Hodges
What Happens Now | James Kirkup
Cairo of the North | Quentin Letts
Labour are the Biggest Losers | Phil Collins
Diane Abbott on the Daily Politics:
“Labour MPs will unite behind Ed Miliband, once we find out what our policies are.”