Which MPs Will Lose Their Seats In May?

Given the polls are all over the place and the pundits are running out of ways to say that they have no idea what is actually going to happen, we’re left to follow the money. Bet2015 shows the live betting odds in each seat and which ones are going to change hands, as well as projecting the national picture based on the insight from the turf accountants. Right now it’s showing a dead heat between the Tories and Labour:

You might recognise at least half of those behind the site:


Bookies think Reckless will lose, that the polls are overestimating the SNP and the Liberals won’t be completely screwed. Track it here.

Flood of Pre-Speech Bets on Clegg to Quit

As Clegg decides what he is going to wear for his speech at 1pm, Paddy Power have slashed the odds on him to announce he will quit as LibDem leader before the election:

This comes on the back of an element of stirring last night:

If you reckon he’s got a very big rabbit coming this afternoon you can put your money where your mouth is here

We Had An Edge

demos

Guido feels he had a bit of an unfair edge in the Demos / DeHavilland fantasy politics conference season game when it came to the “biggest own goal of conference season” category. Still it’s not over yet, even if hardly anyone is going to LibDem conference…

Paddy Power: Clacton Carswell Betting

Guido Fawkes Paddy Power

What should you do with all the money you made taking Guido’s tip to stick your cash on UKIP for the Euro elections? Guido studies the form and gives his take on the Clacton by-election over at the Paddy Power Blog

Ruffley Odds On To Resign

ruffley

Paddy Power have opened a book on whether or not David Ruffley will make it to the general election as a Tory MP:

Ruffley WILL be the Tory candidate for Bury St Edmunds next year: 5/4

Ruffley WON’T be the Tory candidate for Bury St Edmunds next year: 4/7

Get your bets on here before the odds shorten…

Pollsters’ Final Euro-Election Calls


euros-final-call

Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight. You can still – at time of going to pixel – get a 20% return betting on UKIP to win or quintuple your money on Labour. Good luck…

N.B. Any pollster who feels misrepresented (they are sensitive types) should get in touch and we will correct the chart.

Politically Correct Chris Smith Censors Advert

You might have thought Environment Agency boss Chris Smith would be concentrating on the floods but no, today he is busy with his other far more important quango job in charge of the Advertising Standards Authority. Smith’s censorious bunch of self-appointed bureaucrats have made yet another politically correct judgement in an area they should not go into. Following Labour’s call this morning to withdraw the bet, Labour Lord Smith’s ASA is telling Paddy Power to take down its Oscar Pistorius bet advert.

“We have today ordered that a national press ad for the bookmaker, Paddy Power be withdrawn with immediate effect. On the back of an unprecedented number of complaints, we are investigating whether the ad is offensive for trivialising the issues surrounding a murder trial, the death of a woman and disability; we are also challenging whether, in doing so, it brings the good reputation of advertising generally into dispute. Following the complaints, ASA Chairman, Lord Smith, has taken the unusual step of directing the advertiser to withdraw the ad from circulation pending the outcome of the investigation.”

Thousands of peoples’ homes are underwater but don’t worry, Chris Smith is making sure no one is offended by an advert by a betting company. The ASA has “investigated” and made “rulings” on anti-gay marriage advertsanti-environmentalist adverts, Fathers4Justice advertspro-hanging adverts – do you see a politically correct agenda here? They should stay out of politically contentious advertising.

Cameron Optimistic for 2014
Pundits Divided for 2015

dc-14
Dave’s New Year message is essentially “The plan is working… Our recovery is real, but it’s also fragile, and there are more difficult decisions ahead” translation: more cuts coming. Electing the two Eds into government would mean their “economic madness would devastate this country.” The dig at French Hollibandism is well judged, “more borrowing, more spending and more debt” leads to “increasing unemployment, industrial stagnation and enterprise in free fall. The opposite of what’s happening here”. Expect a lot more of this before next year’s election…

Mike Smithson of PoliticalBetting.com still reckons the Tories are doomed, he has three-figure bets at evens with Dan Hodges and Harry Phibbs (of ConservativeHome) that the Tories won’t win most seats. He says it is “very hard to see a pathway to a Conservative majority.” UKIP of course stands in their way

Dan Hodges argues that 2013 was a disastrous year for Ed Miliband, whereas at the end of 2012 Labour’s YouGov daily poll average lead was 11.3%, as 2013 ends it has fallen to 6%. Ed Miliband’s personal YouGov approval rating was -21%, it has now fallen to -34%. Only Ted Heath has won an election from opposition with anything like such negative personal ratings.

Even as the Tories and LibDems have overseen a rising economy only UKIP can claim a good year,  yet many pundits seem to have subjectively upgraded Miliband’s chances of getting into 10 Downing Street despite, objectively, the polling numbers worsening for him.  Andrew Cooper, the pollster whom the PM replaced in Downing Street with Lynton Crosby, last night tweeted out facts repeatedly muttered by Blairites:

Someone once correctly said “there are no rules in politics”. That triple election winner was right. Guido makes it too close to call…

Laing Wins Deputy Speakership

eleanor

As predicted (and bet on) by Guido, Laing survived six rounds of Single Transferable Votes to take the Deputy Speakership.

Of the 551 votes case she eventually got 273.

Trebles all round in Strangers.[…]

+ READ MORE +

Late Money Coming in on Bellingham


Those candidates with a suspicious mind might insist on an observer in the room when the ballot boxes are opened. The clerks are running the election, and it’s not their area of expertise. While they know little if anything of […]

+ READ MORE +

Paddy Power: Betting Tips for the Reshuffle

Guido Fawkes Paddy Power

What should you do with all the money you made taking Guido’s tip to stick your cash on UKIP for the local elections? Over at the Paddy Power Blog, Guido studies the form for the reshuffle, will a woman […]

+ READ MORE +

Shock as ComRes Poll Puts UKIP on 22%

comres-locals-poll

If you took Guido’s advice yesterday morning you could have got evens on UKIP getting  50 seats. Guido got a bit greedy after lunch:

[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Chuka has been trying to spin the Siemens row:

Chuka Umunna: It’s no different from Sky News quoting a business leader.

Adam Boulton: Except yours says ‘VOTE LABOUR’ at the bottom.

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