Race for Second Place

RACE-FOR-SECOND-PLACE

Most Labour MPs are looking forward to their new quasi-Marxist overlord being installed when they return from their holidays. Apart that is from those involved in the campaign teams for Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper. They still publicly cling on to the the hope that the bookies and pollsters are wrong. Again.

More likely their battle is for second place. The arguments for Yvette are that she will get most of Kendall’s second preferences and that Burnham has lost left-wing support to Corbyn so may come third on first preferences. Meaning she will pick-up all the anti-Corbyn votes when Burnham is eliminated. Assuming there are actually enough…

“No chance” say Burnham insiders. Most of Liz’s big supporters have declared for Andy – there are rumours that the likes of John Woodcock* – despite having branded Andy “Continuity Miliband” – have been promised Shadow Cabinet jobs for support. One Burnham supporter told Guido

Yvette’s consistently third in Jeremy’s, Andy’s and Liz’s voter ID. That’s why she looks so desperate. Yvette will finish third but her votes will end up selecting the winner. Just like her husband did in 2010. Yvette, by bitching and bullying the other candidates, has nowhere to go. Soft Corbyn supporters won’t go to her because she slagged him off and she’ll get little from Andy’s supporters. Liz votes is all she can get and she won’t get enough to overtake Andy. Our strategy all along was to be respectful of the members choice. OK he’s flipped a bit but he’s mostly stuck to it. He’s still worth a flutter at 4-1…

Not sure Guido would recommend that bet…

UPDATE: Kendall supporter hits back “the reason Liz backers are second preferencing Andy is nothing to do with promise of Shadow Cabinet jobs. It’s because of all the smears from Roger Baker and Luke Holland on Yvette’s campaign. Childlessness, adultery etc. they’d rather vote for flip floppy Andy who is a nice guy than nasty Brownite machine Yvette.”

*Denied.

Punters Say #JezWeCan

It is happening…

UPDATE: Ladbrokes odds:

Jeremy Corbyn 10/11
Andy Burnham 2/1
Yvette Cooper 11/4
Liz Kendall 50/1

Conflicted Over Corbyn

lay-corbyn

Guido is conflicted. On the one hand, a Labour Party led by Comrade Corbyn would be a source of much merriment and material. On on the other hand, believing that the majority of the Labour rank and file have not gone mad and that peak Corbyn will pass, Guido has been laying him on Betfair. If you really think Corbyn can do it, Guido is happy to take your money…

Cooper Now Ahead of Burnham Again

lab-dex

Yvette seems to have decided to shift her rhetoric leftwards and become the no-change candidate, re-endorsing the 50p tax rate, aspiration-crushing Mansion taxes and even arguing against the £23,000 benefits cap for Londoners – despite there being plenty of jobs available in London. As Burnham spins his love of business and bashes benefits-for-nothing, Yvette is telling Labour activists what they want to hear. Guido frankly thinks her third placed 6/1 long odds don’t make sense…

Just four more nominations will take Yvette Cooper to the final round…

Send news of new declarations to team@order-order.com.

Happy Warrior Wins!

The 3:35 at Newton Abbot:

Will it be the only thing he wins today?

Miliband’s Evasiveness on SNP Getting Cut Through

ONE-DOES-NOT

The polling evidence and anecdotal reports from the doorstep suggesting the need for Miliband to do a deal with the SNP is getting cut through to voters has got Tory morale up. Miliband’s claims that he won’t do a deal are widely disbelieved, because voters can see from the polls that would mean he would not be going to Downing Street. Betting on the Tories being the biggest party gets you a 20% return on your money by Friday down at Ladbrokes…

10 Days Until Dan Hodges Streaks Naked Down Whitehall

Back in 2012 renowned political soothsayer Dan Hodges made this now infamous vow:

We’ll be counting down until the event, presumably taking place anytime from Friday, May 8 onwards.

dileo

Guido also has a bet on with Dan that Douglas Carswell will be re-elected. Safe.

If UKIP poll above 6% in ten days’ time, there are going to be a lot of confused tourists in Westminster…

Damian McBride: My 20/1 solution to the three-pipe problem that is the next DPM

Sponsored post

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Former political spin-doctor and pub quiz enthusiast Damian McBride takes you through the runners for the post of Deputy Prime Minister with the latest odds from Paddy Power.

If you think the outcome of the election is difficult to call, just take a look at Paddy’s superb new market on the identity of the next Deputy Prime Minister. As Sherlock Holmes said in The Red-Headed League, “it is quite a three pipe problem, and I beg that you won’t speak to me for fifty minutes.” Well, pipe at the ready, let me try and solve the case a bit quicker than that.

Favourite in the betting is ‘no-one’ at 7/4, reflecting the fact that there’s no genuine need – either constitutional or practical – for the PM to appoint a deputy. That said, we’ve had a Deputy PM in place during 27 of the last 36 years, so whether we’ve got a minority government, a majority or a coalition, there’s a decent chance the modern tradition will continue. So my fellow detectives, who are the candidates?

Continue reading

Which MPs Will Lose Their Seats In May?

Given the polls are all over the place and the pundits are running out of ways to say that they have no idea what is actually going to happen, we’re left to follow the money. Bet2015 shows the live betting […]

+ READ MORE +

Flood of Pre-Speech Bets on Clegg to Quit

As Clegg decides what he is going to wear for his speech at 1pm, Paddy Power have slashed the odds on him to announce he will quit as LibDem leader before the election:

[…]

+ READ MORE +

We Had An Edge

demos

Guido feels he had a bit of an unfair edge in the Demos / DeHavilland fantasy politics conference season game when it came to the “biggest own goal of conference season” category. Still it’s not over yet, even if hardly […]

+ READ MORE +

Paddy Power: Clacton Carswell Betting

Guido Fawkes Paddy Power

What should you do with all the money you made taking Guido’s tip to stick your cash on UKIP for the Euro elections? Guido studies the form and gives his take on the Clacton by-election over at the Paddy Power […]

+ READ MORE +



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team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Charles Clarke says Cameron is the most successful PM for over a century…

“Under Margaret Thatcher the Conservatives gained 99 seats. They lost 211 under John Major, gained one under William Hague, quickly and wisely got rid of Ian Duncan-Smith, gained 32 under Michael Howard and have so far gained 133 under David Cameron who, to the great surprise of many (including senior Conservatives), has turned out to be the most electorally successful Tory leader since 1900.”

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