Just got £100 on Labour to win Glasgow East tonight @ 1/2. A 50% return overnight?  Seems way too generous.  Labour should be home easily…

That is not something many can say. Laid her at the bookies on Betfair of course. Selling her price down….

UPDATE : Sir George Young has gone favourite in late betting.

Ladbrokes spokesman Robin Hutchison says: “Bercow has been drumming up support since Michael Martin announced he was stepping down. But his chances now appear to have gone for a walk.” Punters on Betfair have also shifted the smart money onto Beckett, making her the new favourite.  Bercow has come across badly at hustings, proving that the more you know Bercow, the less you like him.  The realisation is also growing on the Labour benches that as Speaker he will be like a football referee who thinks the crowd are cheering for him.

There are is also a suggestion that his “back story”, the supposed “journey” from the right to the left under his wife’s influence, will not withstand scrutiny.  Her political past is a little more interesting than hitherto has been understood…

Everyman and his blog is doing an election results service based on, well, mostly watching TV, so Guido won’t bother with that. Very disappointed that Guido’s Libertas vote looks like it went to waste. At the New Ross polling station in Wexford on Friday a neighbour said “it is our job to choose between the liars”. Wise words.

Hoping UKIP beat Labour, very worried that Dan Hannan may have won his bet that Labour will come fifth in his region. Due to Pimms-related intoxication Guido offered him 10/1 odds. Ouch, think it is bedtime for Guido…

UPDATE : Nick Griffin will be thanking Gordon Brown tonight.  He could not have done it without him. Brown has achieved one policy goal, he got a British job for one British worker, the British National Party candidate who is going to Brussels.  Labour MPs should reflect on that, do they fear losing their jobs in an election more than they loathe the BNP.  As long as they keep a Scot who can’t connect with English working class voters as leader, the stronger the BNP becomes.

Guido got a call yesterday from the Spectator -

Speccie : Who are you tipping for the Grand National?

Guido : No idea, when is it?

Speccie : An Irishman who knows nothing about horses?

Guido : I know one thing, don’t take any tips from Peter Oborne.

On the basis of Peter’s tips Guido would consider laying (betting against) Brooklyn Brownie and Golden Flight on Betfair.  Oborne has finally got the full measure of Gordon Brown.  His demolition of Gordon’s G20 boasts is fantastic; Hubris, hoopla and claims that were false, cynical and very, very dangerous.

Hard to believe that Oborne was once Brown’s last commentariat fan.

• As of 0900 this morning the punters (after 200 votes) are splitting 61% for the SNP and 39% for Labour.
• Over on PoliticsHome the PH100 Index “daily tracker of uk insider and expert opinion” is calling it 61% / 31% for Labour to win. Strikingly inverse proportions.

Over on Betfair the punters are putting their money where their mouths are and making the SNP odds on favourites. Back in July the punters made fools of the pundits over the outcome of the Glasgow East by-election. The pundits are as fickle as teenage girls, the punters are more calculating.

The London based punditry are out of touch, they talk too much to each other. Our old friend Tom Watson has been briefing the press that Labour will win Glenrothes and this will be a great victory for Gordon. He has convinced Gordon to stake what little political capital he has on a Glenrothes comeback campaigning in the constituency. However, as Ben Brogan has detected, so chronic is the shortage of local activists and supporters Labour are press-ganging English Labour MPs and Northern CLP activists to trek past Hadrian’s Wall to help in the constituency. Not exactly a sign of a forthcoming resounding victory.

Guido thinks the punters not the pundits are right, again. Gordon’s personal visit should, if the curse of the one-eyed son of the manse still holds, have doomed Labour’s candidate. Labour are throwing the kitchen sink at this, heck the 10p tax bailout cost a few billion during the Crewe by-election, this time the bailout of Scottish banks cost tens of billions for this by-election. It will be close…

First they came for the capitalists…

(Guido is short FTSE Futures. What are you going to do Gordon?)