Osborne: No Punishment Budget

Shocker.

Labour Leadership Game On

bets

Guido put these bets on at William Hill on October 4, last year, shortly after the Labour Party conference. Now the odds are much shorter with Tom Watson 7/2 and John McDonnell 7/1. Place your bets…

Rich’s Monday Morning View

no 11 540

Labour Coup As It Happens

  • 21:19 Shadow Leader of the House Chris Bryant resigns.
  • 19:08 Karl Turner, Shadow Attorney General, is next to quit.
  • 17:46 Blairite Shadow Justice Secretary Charlie Falconer resigns.
  • 17:20 Tom Watson says he is “deeply disappointed” by Hilary Benn’s sacking and “equally saddened” by resignations.
  • 16:51 Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Vernon Coaker quits.
  • 13:44 Close McDonnell ally, Shadow Chief Secretary Seema Malhotra resigns.
  • 13:09 Shadow Environment Secretary Kerry McCarthy goes too.
  • 12:58 Andy Burnham says he WON’T resign.
  • 12:56 Shadow Education Secretary Lucy Powell resigns.
  • 12:55 Confirmed Lilian Greenwood quits.
  • 12:40 Len McCluskey says it’s a “pathetic and futile coup” against Corbyn. Says Tom Watson will back Jez.
  • 12:30 Lucy Powell has told MPs she’s resigning from shadow cabinet later this afternoon.
  • 11:38 Confirmed Ian Murray has gone. He’s Labour’s only Scottish MP.
  • 11:07 Gloria De Piero quits.
  • 09:52: Shadow Scotland Secretary Ian Murray set to quit, along with Shadow Transport Secretary Lilian Greenwood.
  • 08:15 Corbyn says he won’t resign.
  • 08:00 Shadow Health Secretary Heidi Alexander resigns.
  • 01:00 Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn sacked in the early hours. He had been about to resign.

As Jez once tweeted, “Here we, here we, here we f**king go”…

UPDATE:

save+jez

Late last night EyeSpy.MP spotted that the Prince Across the Water was back across the water:

UPDATE II: John McDonnell tells Andrew Neil the membership will be mobilised behind the programme. Note that he doesn’t say mobilised behind Corbyn. McDonnell’s rhetorical support for Corbyn conflicts with his manifest ambitions. Under pressure from Brillo he says he won’t stand for leader even if Corbyn falls. A politician’s promise…

UPDATE III: A senior Labour MP texts: “McDonnell lying through teeth. Seema [Malhotra] and others been calling for him in last 24h.” Tom Blenkinsop suggests McDonnell has been ringing round himself to canvass for support.

Tory Leadership Runners and Riders

This is where the potential Tory leadership contenders stand this morning:

  • Boris Johnson – Will announce he’s running within days. Jesse Norman, Nadhim Zahawi and Ben Wallace are phoning round MPs canvassing for support. Faces a battle to get on the ballot from Cameron’s allies, Remain MPs and a number of Leavers too. The story of the next few weeks is whether anyone can ‘Stop Boris’.
  • Theresa May – Definitely a goer, the leading ‘Anyone But Boris’ candidate. Her aides did a ring around yesterday and a group of 20+ Remain MPs met on Friday where her name came up. MPs believe only she can beat Boris with the members. Several Leavers would back her. But would Cameron and Osborne?
  • Michael Gove – Many Leave MPs wanted him to run but he has always had reservations. Sunday Times says he is backing Boris. Out of the running.
  • Stephen Crabb – Sets out his stall in two Sunday papers. Has the personal story but MPs say he isn’t PM material. Could be the Cameron/Osborne choice. Faces fight to the death with May to be the Remain candidate.
  • Andrea Leadsom – Name has been doing the rounds for months. Leader of the Fresh Start group which will be a player in the next few years. Potential Chancellor?
  • Liam Fox – Intends to stand. Has significant backing from the south-west contingent of MPs. Will he make a deal for a Cabinet post? Whoever squares him off will get a boost.
  • George Freeman – Who? He’s the Life Sciences minister and the Sunday Times says he’s running with the backing of 30 MPs from the 2010 and 2015 intakes. He has tweeted that he is “discussing how best to get a bold Programme of OneNation reforms centre stage. #NoPlansUPDATE: Tells Crick he’s not running.
  • Nicky Morgan – Arch-Europhile. “Friends” unsubtly briefed Sky that she was “taking soundings“, which was treated with as much derision as when she put herself forward at conference last year.
  • Jeremy Hunt – Tipped by the Mail on Sunday today, and previously by Toby Young and Peter Oborne. Could Cameron and Osborne back him? His SpAd Ed Jones has cryptically posted on Facebook that he is “losing his job”.
  • Dominic Raab – David Davis’ old chief of staff is something of a hipster choice for Tories who fancy a flutter. Name was in the mix pre-referendum and he had a good war. An outside right-wing choice, seems a long shot. UPDATE: Told Question Time tonight “I can tell you now I won’t be running.”
  • Priti Patel – Has ruled herself out.
  • George Osborne – Missing, loathed by Leavers over his scorched earth campaign and punishment budget. Isabel Oakeshott says he spent yesterday canvassing support. Has longer odds than Priti, and she’s not even in the running.
  • Sajid Javid – Eurosceptic who went with Osborne and will forever live to regret it.
  • David Davis – Said to want another go.
  • Graham Brady – Chairman of the 1922 so has influence, said to fancy himself.
  • Adam Afriyie – Genuinely not ruling himself out. LOL.
  • Alan Duncan – hard for anyone he tells to keep a straight face. Attention seeking behaviour.

  • Jeremy Hunt – well you have to dream. Will need a personality change.

So, who are you backing?

Where’s Tom?

Probably not a good idea for Tom Watson to do interviews this morning while nursing a post-Glasto come down. This is from his snapchat at 4 a.m.:

tommo-snapchat-silent-disco

He is on his way back…

No comment from Labour’s answer to Gromyko yet…

Social Media’s Filter Bubble Driving Political Anger

filter+bubbles

Tom Steinberg is one of those internet gurus who actually does interesting and useful things and he is really on to something with his fears about the filter bubble:

I am actively searching through Facebook for people celebrating the Brexit leave victory, but the filter bubble is SO strong, and extends SO far into things like Facebook’s custom search that I can’t find anyone who is happy despite the fact that over half the country is clearly jubilant today and despite the fact that I’m *actively* looking to hear what they are saying.

This echo-chamber problem is now SO severe and SO chronic that I can only only beg any friends I have who actually work for Facebook and other major social media and technology to urgently tell their leaders that to not act on this problem now is tantamount to actively supporting and funding the tearing apart of the fabric of our societies. Just because they aren’t like anarchists or terrorists – they’re not doing the tearing apart on purpose – is no excuse – the effect is the same, we’re getting countries where one half just doesn’t know anything at all about the other.

It’s in the power of people like Mark Zuckerberg to do something about this, if they’re strong enough and wise enough to swap a little shareholder value for the welfare of whole nations, and the world as a whole.

Filter bubbles exist outside social media, Guido noticed that during the 2008 Ken v Boris campaign private car owners didn’t know anyone who was going to vote for Ken and those who solely relied on public transport were almost the reverse, they didn’t know anyone who was going to vote for Boris. That was a function of income to some degree. People associate with people like themselves in real life. As our information sources become ever more filtered and self-socialised this will mean that we live in our own social media echo chambers.

It seems that after every major political event people who have been living in a filtered world find it difficult to believe that their opponents won. Because we’re living in our own filter bubbles.

This is even more pronounced on the left because so many of them never read right-leaning media, whereas those of us on the right are more used to reading The Guardian, watching Channel 4 News, Newsnight et al. Is this a significant social problem? Or does it just mean that after elections the losers will be unpleasantly surprised?

See also Dr Max Wilson on the subject:

 

Lammy: MPs Should Ignore Referendum Result

Delusional David Lammy has said parliament should ignore the referendum result and vote to Remain in the EU anyway:

“Wake up. We do not have to do this. We can stop this madness and bring this nightmare to an end through a vote in parliament. Our sovereign parliament needs to now vote on whether we should exit the EU.

The referendum was an advisory, non-binding referendum. The Leave campaign’s platform has already unravelled and some people wish they hadn’t voted Leave. Parliament now needs to decide whether we should go forward with Brexit, and there should be a vote in parliament next week. Let us not destroy our economy on the basis of the lies and hubris of Boris Johnson.”

A Labour MP effectively telling millions of working class Labour voters across the country he doesn’t care what they think…

Saturday Seven Up

This week 327,588 visitors visited 830,557 times viewing 1,372,817 pages. The top stories in order of popularity were:

You’re either in front of Guido, or behind…

Eddie Izzard’s Lipstick Kiss of Death

That Eddie Izzard campaign record in full:

  • join the euro
  • elect Ken Livingstone
  • elect Gordon Brown
  • vote Yes in the AV referedum
  • elect Ed Miliband
  • elect Andy Burnham as Labour leader
  • Remain in the EU

The lip-sticked kiss of death strikes again…

Corbyn No Confidence Motion Tabled

The BBC reports Margaret Hodge and Ann Coffey have tabled a no confidence motion in Jeremy Corbyn, which could be voted on on Tuesday night. The PLP might be able to topple him but how will they win round the membership? The problem with Blairites organising a putsch against Jez is they were the ones out of touch with Labour voters…

Boris and Gove Pay Tribute to Cameron

Next Prime Minister Runners and Riders

Boris Johnson 4/5

Theresa May 3/1

Michael Gove 5/1

Andrea Leadsom 10/1

Stephen Crabb 16/1

Priti Patel 16/1

George Osborne 16/1

Sajid Javid 20/1

Dominic Raab 20/1

Philip Hammond 20/1

Liam Fox 25/1

Amber Rudd 25/1

Ruth Davidson 25/1

These are the initial next PM odds via Ladbrokes. Meanwhile “friends of” dripping Europhile Nicky Morgan have told Sky she is “taking soundings”, which is a laugh. Several of the above names can immediately be discounted. Boris presser at 11am…

Live Plot to Remove Corbyn

Here is the situation with Labour as of 9:30am. Corbyn is “definitely” facing a live plot to remove him as leader – the Shadow Cabinet meets at 10am where it is possible Shadow ministers will tell him to resign or threaten to resign themselves. Labour MPs are putting heavy pressure on Shadow ministers to man up and tell him to go immediately. Shadow Cabinet members are spreading rumours that Corbyn and McDonnell personally voted to Leave…

There are rumours of a letter of no confidence in circulation, though it has yet to reach some moderates Guido has spoken to. That could take a few days to come to fruition. Angela Eagle, a possible successor, has dodged questions about whether Corbyn should resign. John McDonnell is named as either being “behind” moves against Corbyn or as a potential successor. McDonnell’s team, including his top aide James Meadway, were in Portcullis House this morning where they were described as jubilant by a witness. Sadiq Khan is meeting Labour MPs in parliament too. Could a second party leader be out this weekend?

Cameron Resigns

An emotional Cameron announces he will stand down, new leader in place by October…

READ: Leaked Labour Script Hails Corbyn

These are the lines sent to Labour MPs by party spin doctors this morning:

Referendum 0600 script

Top lines:

Clearly many communities across our country feel left behind and cut off by the political establishment in Brussels and Westminster. This was a rejection of the status quo by millions of people who are not sharing in the wealth of this country, for whom the economy is not working.

[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Boris campaign team member Jake Berry not taking well:

“There is a very deep pit reserved in Hell for such as he. #Gove”

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Red Ken’s “Hitler” Remix Redux Red Ken’s “Hitler” Remix Redux
GOVE: I AM THE BREXIT CANDIDATE GOVE: I AM THE BREXIT CANDIDATE
BLUNDERING BORIS’ BOTCHED ANDREA OFFERS BLUNDERING BORIS’ BOTCHED ANDREA OFFERS
CORBYN LAUGHS AND JOKES WITH SMEETH HECKLER “I TEXTED YOU” CORBYN LAUGHS AND JOKES WITH SMEETH HECKLER “I TEXTED YOU”
GOVE: WHY I KNIFED BORIS GOVE: WHY I KNIFED BORIS
JEWISH LABOUR MP ABUSED AT CORBYN ANTI-SEMITISM EVENT JEWISH LABOUR MP ABUSED AT CORBYN ANTI-SEMITISM EVENT
TRACKING #TORYLEADERSHIP CAMPAIGN 2016 TRACKING #TORYLEADERSHIP CAMPAIGN 2016
BORIS PULLS OUT BORIS PULLS OUT
TORY LEADERSHIP DECLARATIONS LATEST TORY LEADERSHIP DECLARATIONS LATEST
MAY: “BREXIT MEANS BREXIT” MAY: “BREXIT MEANS BREXIT”
Gove’s Full Statement Gove’s Full Statement
AB FAB’S PATSY AND EDINA SPEAK ON BREXIT AB FAB’S PATSY AND EDINA SPEAK ON BREXIT
CORBYN GETS HIS NEW POLITICS AT LAST CORBYN GETS HIS NEW POLITICS AT LAST
CORBYNISTAS WEAPONISE CAMERON CORBYNISTAS WEAPONISE CAMERON
PM TO CORBYN: “FOR HEAVEN’S SAKE MAN, GO!” PM TO CORBYN: “FOR HEAVEN’S SAKE MAN, GO!”
GLOVES OFF: CRABB GOES FOR BORIS GLOVES OFF: CRABB GOES FOR BORIS
JEDIS FOR JEZ JEDIS FOR JEZ
DON’T TRIGGER ARTICLE 50 UNTIL THE DEAL IS CLEAR DON’T TRIGGER ARTICLE 50 UNTIL THE DEAL IS CLEAR
SNP CELEBRATE ENGLAND OUT OF EUROPE SNP CELEBRATE ENGLAND OUT OF EUROPE