Leave 2 Points Ahead With YouGov

Remain: 42% (-2)

Leave: 44% (+1)

Don’t Know: 9% (uc)

Would Not Vote: 4% (uc)

Online poll taken between 17-19 June…

Via Sam Coates

UPDATE: ORB on the other hand has Remain leading 49-47.

Déjà Vu: Rehashed Remain Letter Coming Tomorrow

This is the template letter being sent round FTSE businesses by Downing Street, lined up for a story in tomorrow’s papers. Feel familiar? It’s very much the same old stuff we heard last month:

“We own and run more than — businesses, from micro companies to the FTSE 100.

We know our firms are stronger in Europe. Our reasons are straightforward: businesses and their employees benefit massively from being able to trade inside the world’s largest single market without barriers. As business people, we are always looking to the future – and a future inside the European Union is where we see more opportunities for investment, growth and new jobs….

Britain leaving the EU would mean uncertainty for our firms, less trade with Europe and fewer jobs. Britain remaining in the EU would mean the opposite – more certainty, more trade and more jobs. EU membership is good for business and good for British jobs. That’s why, on June 23rd, we back Britain remaining in the EU.”

It didn’t exactly work when they tried it a few weeks ago…

Campaign Report: 3 Days to Go

Leave message: EU economies are failing – just look at unemployment. Britain’s economy is safer out.

Remain message: Companies like Ford are worried about Leave.

Cut through: Bosses back Remain.

Leave social media count: 516,128 likes, 63,797 followers.

Remain social media count: 501,965 likes, 43,447 followers.

Odds: Remain 1/3, Leave 14/5 and 3/1

poll of polls 20062016

Latest poll: Remain 45% (+3), Leave 42% (-3) (Survation, phone). Poll of Polls is now Remain 50% (+2), Leave 50% (-2).

Corbyn Lists Reasons to Oppose EU on Sky Debate

Corbyn calls his support for the EU “not unconditional”, lashes out at TTIP, EU shielded tax havens, and the way “systematically big companies are exploiting loopholes” in  EU law. Return to base Agent Corbyn, your work is done…

Rick Astley and June Sarpong to Face Paxman

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Rick Astley will appear alongside fellow celebrity federasts June Sarpong and Delia Smith on the Remain side, while Leave will field Ulrika Jonsson, Mike Read and Theo Paphitis. The panel for the “discussion”, to be grilled by Jeremy Paxman, will be chosen from the 150 strong audience of politicians and C-listers.  Sure that will get the ratings…

Will Young Climbs Aboard Boris’s Vote Leave Bus

will young

Evergreen Pop Idol crooner Will Young is famous for hits like 2003’s “Leave right now”. It looks like he will be getting on Vote Leave’s bus on the Long and Winding Road when he takes over the big red battle bus later this week. Conspiratorial pro-Remain types needn’t have Suspicious Minds, though – Young isn’t going to Light Leave’s Fire – he’s just using the bus for his journey to Glastonbury on June 25. The singer won’t be making significant Changes, other than taking off all the Vote Leave stickers.

Will has so far stayed out of the referendum. There’s still time to back Leave – Don’t Let me Down Will…

Guido’s Middle East Gay Rights Quiz

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Scored below four? You can join Labour here

Commons Stands to Applaud Jo Cox

Will Straw Ordered Remain to Attack Leave Over Jo Cox Death

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Remain campaign director Will Straw sent the above email to the Stronger In mailing list yesterday. The thinking behind it is revealed in a recording of a conference call, obtained by Guido, which took place yesterday afternoon. Straw told Remain campaigners that voters had been “pulled up short” by the murder of Jo Cox, and that Stronger In should now attack the Leave side for creating “division and resentment”. Straw says they should respond to Cox’s death – “the new context that we’re in” – by claiming only they represent “a decent, tolerant” Britain.

“We need to recognise that people have been pulled up short by Jo Cox’s death and it is now time to make a very positive case for why we want to be in the European Union… to call out the other side for what they have done to stir division and resentment in the UK. That is something we must all do… This is what we think is the closing argument of the campaign, reflecting all the arguments that we have been setting out for many months but also the new context that we’re in. What we want to say is people should vote Remain on Thursday for more jobs, lower prices, workers’ rights, stronger public services and a decent, tolerant United Kingdom.”

Fair to say campaigning is well and truly back under way…

Punters Bet Big on Remain

cameron paddypower

Since Cameron’s Conservative Party claimed a shock majority in last year’s general election, we’ve experienced an intense build-up to the UK’s European Union Membership Referendum. This week, voters of the UK will either maintain or reject its EU member state status after more than 40 years of trade and co-operation. Up to lunchtime on Monday, the odds say 1/4 to vote In (Remain campaign), and 3/1 to vote Out (Brexit) – driven by a significant new surge of bets on Remain.

Paddy Power has found that high-stakes punters seemed cagey about taking the Leave odds until recently, even at generous odds like the 9/2 that was available at the end of May this year.

In mid-June, two big polling outfits reported 7% leads for Leave when excluding undecided voters. This represented a marked success for the Leave camp, because decided voters for Exit were growing whilst Remain numbers were static. Even then customers appeared to be reluctant to accept the trend. We struggled to sell Exit at 3.5 for days. We even attracted several five-figure sums on Remain at odds between 1.18 and 1.22 during those days.

Eventually there was a take up of the Leave odds as the delayed effect of the polls was finally felt, but considering the consistency of the apparent popularity for Leave in the polls and the press, the odds did not settle as short as one might expect. In the last seven days, Exit odds dropped as low as 6/4 before stabilising at 9/4.

The big guns are out now, and punters have wagered a whopping £500k this. Two single bets of £30k were placed on Remain at odds of 1/3 – the betting support for Remain is huge and shows no signs of faltering.

Read more here…

Young Labour Equality Officer Sorry for Blackface Pic

labour black face

The internet means youthful indiscretions tend to be recorded in pixel forever, as London Young Labour LGBT Officer Lewis Parker has discovered. Lewis has had to say sorry after this unfortunate image of him from a couple of years ago emerged – he had captioned it “I changed my race, lol jk”. The wannabe politico has written a very long and very thorough blog post explaining how he “didn’t fully understand liberation”. Ed Balls survived similar – you never know, Lewis could be Shadow Chancellor one day…

Time to Say-eeda Goodbye…

“Although I was never a member of the group, I did hum along to one of their songs two weeks ago…”

Cameron: Leave Voters ‘Confused’

Audience member: “What I don’t understand is with all these experts that you’ve got saying we should stay in, why the British public isn’t more convinced, why is Brexit in the lead?”

Cameron: “Well, I think people have found this debate, and all the facts and the figures, perhaps quite confusing. People need to think very carefully.”

That’ll win ’em round…

Rich’s Monday Morning View

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Warsi ‘Defection’ Unravels

The Times have watered down their mischievous first edition claiming Sayeeda Warsi has ‘defected’ from Leave to Remain. No one in Vote Leave thought she was a Brexit supporter or is aware of her doing any campaigning for them at all. She has only tweeted about Vote Leave once – ten days ago – to attack them. She did not appear on the website of pro-Leave group Muslims for Britain. In February Warsi told Eurosceptic campaigners she had not declared. When Dan Hannan invited her to join the Leave campaign, she declined. Neil Kinnock even once backed her for EU commissioner…

What about her own words? Speaking in 2013, Sayeeda said:

“Membership of the EU is in the UK’s national interest”

In 2014 she said:

“One of the things that attracted me to David Cameron was that he was not obsessed with Europe and immigration. I would hate to think that is where we end up again – obsessing with Europe and immigration.”

And in 2011 she told the Tory group of MEPs she explicitly supported being a member of the EU:

“Now is not the time to turn our backs on our friends. We must continue the work we have started together. This is the work that Margaret Thatcher began, bringing about growth through a competitive single market. And that must be our mission today. And with that, it is my great pleasure to introduce a man who is leading this mission [William Hague]. A man who fought a campaign about being in Europe but not run by Europe. He was criticised – but he was right.”

Forget dead cat, Downing Street and Sayeeda have sold the Times a pup…

Sunday Selection

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Quote of the Day

David Cowling, the BBC’s head of political research, in an internal memo…

“It seems to me that the London bubble has to burst if there is to be any prospect of addressing the issues that have brought us to our current situation. There are many millions of people in the UK who do not enthuse about diversity and do not embrace metropolitan values yet do not consider themselves lesser human beings for all that. Until their values and opinions are acknowledged and respected, rather than ignored and despised, our present discord will persist. Because these discontents run very wide and very deep and the metropolitan political class, confronted by them, seems completely bewildered and at a loss about how to respond (“who are these ghastly people and where do they come from?” doesn’t really hack it). The 2016 EU referendum has witnessed the cashing in of some very bitter bankable grudges but I believe that, throughout this 2016 campaign, Europe has been the shadow not the substance.”

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