The Guido team have put their final predictions on the board for how many seats they think each party will win. Sticking heads above the parapet as always…
Now we get to see who looks the most stupid come tomorrow morning. Co-conspirators can put their own guesses in the comments…
Many cabinet ministers’ seats sit on a knife-edge. YouGov predicts that 12 will lose them. How will things pan out overnight?
- Jeremy Hunt, Godalming and Ash to LibDems by 15%.
- Grant Shapps, Welwyn Hatfield to Labour by 18%.
- Penny Mordaunt, Portsmouth North to Labour by 5%.
- Mark Harper, Forest of Dean to Labour by 4%.
- Alex Chalk, Cheltenham to LibDems 31%.
- Mel Stride, Central Devon to Labour by 1%.
- Johnny Mercer, Plymouth Moor View to Labour by 11%.
- Esther McVey, Tatton to Labour by 1%.
- Gillian Keegan, Chichester to the LibDems by 5%.
- Simon Hart, Caerfyrddin to Labour by 9%.
- David T C Davies, Monmouthshire to Labour by 11%.
- Victoria Prentis, Banbury to Labour by 6%.
A lot of those will be announced at around 3 a.m. There are other fun seats to watch:
- Chingford and Woodford Green, around 3 a.m. Will ex-Labour Faiza Shaheen take enough votes from the left for Iain Duncan Smith to squeeze through? Reform is also standing…
- Rotherham. Reform is making excited noises about this seat after the Tories failed to submit papers for it. Will 2010 entrant Sarah Champion miss out on the Labour landslide?
- Islington North, around 3 a.m: Bookies have even odds on Corbyn winning. Recent polling suggests he’s on the way out…
- Bristol Central, around 3 a.m.: Labour frontbencher Thangham Debbonaire is trying to hold on in the face of a Green threat from the party’s co-leader Carla Denyer. Green-commissioned polling says they’ll win this one…
- Basildon and Billericay: Tory chairman Richard Holden might not win this safe seat 300 miles from his home. Maybe because it isn’t the 500/1,000 miles The Proclaimers demanded…
- Newark, around 3 a.m: Tory leadership hopeful Robert Jenrick is at risk. Who will import new Canadian Conservatism then?
- Richmond, around 4 a.m: Will Sunak be the first sitting PM ever to lose his seat? He’s said to be worried about it…
- South West Norfolk: Liz Truss is under threat from angry farmers. Local Tories have reported abysmal responses on the doorstep for weeks now…
- Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: Onward founder, Downing Street’s Will Tanner is running in this safe seat. Will voters reject the author of national service?
- Wycombe, around 6 a.m: Steve Baker says he wants to run for Tory leader. He’ll have to move mountains to keep the seat…
- Clacton, around 4 a.m: Polls have predicted that Nigel Farage will take this seat off Tory Giles Watling. The “revolt” sort of relies on it…
- Ashfield, around 4 a.m: Earlier in the year Tory MPs said Lee Anderson’s defection would surely cost him the seat. It’s not looking so sure now…
- Ashton-under-Lyne: Angela Rayner is hoping to head off a challenge from Galloway’s Workers Party. Were the pleas to the Muslim community enough?
- Rochdale: Will George Galloway hang on? Labour is determined he doesn’t…
- Mid Buckinghamshire: Will Tory Greg Smith defeat the Greens’ Greg Smith and Labour’s former ‘Miss Voluptuous’ candidate? Tune in to one of the safest seats around…
That should keep punters entertained. Amid a likely cascade of Portillo moments…
It’s good to remind co-conspirators that, when it comes to the party’s sole stated objective, the SNP threw down the gauntlet for this election. Nicola Sturgeon said clearly to the Scottish Parliament in 2022:
“If it does transpire that there is no lawful way for this Parliament to give the people of Scotland the choice of independence in a referendum and if the UK government continues to deny a section 30 order my party will fight the UK General Election on this single question: should Scotland be an independent country?”
No doubt Sturgeon will be keen to talk about that in her role as pundit for ITV tonight. Two leaders later, John Swinney told Sky News yesterday that “regardless of how the SNP perform, his party will be pushing the new UK government for a referendum on Scottish independence.” Just with no mandate…
The terms are set. You can see how YouGov predicts that will go here…
Hat-tip: Sam Taylor
Co-conspirators may remember a young Labour/Co-Operative MP earnestly presenting a 10-minute rule motion in 2015 which would scrap First Past the Post and introduce more proportional additional member voting (à la Scotland and Wales) for Westminster. His impassioned final cry: “I make a plea today for not just a proportional voting system, but a patriotic voting system, in which all parts of the country and all shades of opinion are treated equally and fairly”…
That was nowhere to be seen on Peston last night when Shadow Business and Trade Secretary Reynolds was asked about his views:
“Look, it’s a system that we have. I’ve lost elections under that system and I hope one day to experience winning elections under that system. The simple fact is – and I think it is to the credit of the Labour Party – that if you look at the constituencies up and down the country there is really only one political party that is competitive in all parts of the UK and that is the Labour Party because we have that, that gives us a chance to form the government.“
It’s fine now that they’re winning. If seats were fully proportionally decided according to the current polled vote share, Labour would only get 250 seats or so. A little over half what YouGov predicts for them under FPTP. Better keep schtum on that patriotism, then…
Polls are now open for 15 more hours. This is how each of the national papers are presenting the country’s choice at this election. This is how they presented it last time…
There are many things to take into account when out campaigning. What issues matter most to voters, how to approach people, how to hammer home your party’s message. For some Labour campaigners, it’s how you come across. Most importantly, it’s all about what you wear. Labour campaigners in Canterbury took to their WhatsApp group to share the importance on dressing “according to demographic”. In poorer areas, upmarket Seasalt is out, Primark is in…
Good to see Labour campaigners are focused on the things that truly “matter” when appearing to be the party of the people. The struggles of canvassing…
Former leader of the SNP in Westminster Ian Blackford told Times Radio why he believes Nicola Sturgeon’s claim that she spent no time in the kitchen and therefore didn’t see any of her husband’s purchases:
“She doesn’t have a passion for cooking.”
