Friday, May 2, 2008

Meltdown : Brown Beaten by Calamity Clegg

On Wednesday Brown mocked Nick Clegg as a calamity, so how must it feel to be beaten by him this morning? The BBC is projecting the Conservatives will have 44%, the Liberal Democrats 25% and Labour last on 24%.

Labour are projected to lose over 200 seats, a meltdown performance not seen for over a generation. Brown is nowhere to be seen this morning and all the claims of the Brownies ring hollow – their line was that in times of economic difficulty voters would cling to Gordon’s authority and economic competence. Oh, no they didn’t…

These are real votes, not poll results and if repeated at a general election would give the Tories some 400 seats at Westminster and a majority of 138.

Highlights of last night were Richard Littlejohn bitch-slapping Polly Toynbee into silence on Question Time, Geoff Hoon making a Comical Ali style tit of himself and the surreal idiocy of the BBC’s Jeremy Vine dressed up in a cowboy suit making a fool of himself. The Guidoisation of public service broadcasting is perhaps not the best direction for them to go…

From 2330 until 0230 this site had a live chat running which had 744 viewers making instant comments which was great fun as the night wore on. Great fun which we will seek to repeat during PMQs in the future.

Thursday, May 1, 2008

+++ LIVE CHAT INTERACTIVE +++

@ 22.33

Boris Johnson 1.17 / 1.18

Ken Livingstone 6.4 / 6.8

Brian Paddick 370 / 490

@ 22.42

Betfair has First preference percentage share bets

Punters are backing Boris to have more than 40% and Ken to have between 35% to 40%.

Des Browne is chanting on Question Time “there is no issue of Gordon’s leadership” clearly this mantra is the offical “line to take”.

@ 23.05

Richard Littlejohn just right-hooked Polly Toynbee with a counter-punch when she asked what did he know about people on average wages. he retorted with an inquiry about her flights to her villa in Italy. She looked shaken and said “lets not get into this way”. Oh please do…

Stat-Porn April Drill Down :593,233 Pageviews from 406,732 Visits

All here in Google Analytical technicolour detail for downloading. Statcounter recorded 602,817 pageviews from 433,702 visitors. Guido won’t quibble…

The Calculus of Political Pain and Pleasure

This PoliticsHome derived chart pretty much sums up the political pain / pleasure calculus for the parties tonight. Given only some 4,000 seats are up for grabs, rather than the 10,000 seats last time, it would be be extraordinary to see a 200 seat move. If the LibDems keep their losses low they will have done well. If Labour loses seats to below the level of Blair’s Warmongering low that literally decimated Labour last time (and paved the way for Brown to “save the party”) the recriminations will flow like Tory champagne…

Via : New Statesman

Ipsos-Mori V YouGov

Today will be the day where YouGov makes or breaks its reputation. YouGov alone is predicting victory for Boris – the rest of the major pollsters go for Ken by slim margins. Last night it looked to Guido like Ipsos-Mori were in CYA* mode, posting comments on PoliticalBetting.Com nuancing their position. Punters believe and trust YouGov…

Mori in the past have spun bad calls with “last minute surge” lines. Expect more of the same…


*Cover Your Ass

Steve Richards : "Voters Aren’t As Clever As Me"

Apparently if only voters were as clever as the Indy’s Steve Richards they would vote as he tells them. If they don’t vote for Ken they will have failed Steve’s test. They will have failed themselves. They will be punishing themselves. There are windbags, there are really pompous windbags and then there is Steve Richards.

UPDATE : Da Fink is more polite, Shane Greer less so.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Zimbabwe and Britain : Parallels (I)

A co-conspirator draws an interesting parallel.

From The History of Zimbabwe based on Nyerere’s recollections:

During tension between the two political leaders Julius Nyerere summoned Nkomo then Mugabe to talks to try and reconcile them. When Mugabe went in and was offered a seat, Mugabe refused and went up to Nyerere’s face and told him “If you think I’m going to sit right where that fat bastard just sat, you’ll have to think again”. As a result of this strained relationship with the two, fighting between ZANLA and ZIPRA soldiers only increased and widened the gap between the two men.

From The Mail On Sunday based on Prescott’s memoirs:

Mr Prescott, who will stand down as an MP at the next election, also tells of more comical encounters, including the time the then Chancellor insisted on having a larger chair at a peace-making dinner. Mr Blair reportedly said: “I’m used to Gordon looking down on me.”

+++ YouGov Whisper Number Has Boris Ahead 6% +++

Mike Smithson has the whisper from a reliable source that YouGov’s last poll has Boris “leading Ken 44%-36% on first preferences. After second preferences that becomes 53% to 47%.”

Guido Predicts…

Boris will win and nothing else will really matter tomorrow. Polly Toynbee and all the rest of the chattering classes will choke on their words. Labour will finally understand in their collective consciousness that they made a terrible choice in replacing the triple election-winning Tony with the triple election-avoiding* Gordon.

They will also know that if Boris can win London, Cameron can win Britain. Gordon is a loser…

*1994 avoids risking challenging Tony for the leadership. July 2007 engineers a coronation through menace and intimidation to avoid a challenge for the leadership. October 2007 funks calling a general election to obtain a personal mandate in the face of a resurgent Conservative Party.

Short : "Arrest Blair for War Crimes"

It has just come to Guido’s attention that Claire Short was on Al Jazeera earlier this month calling for Tony Blair to be arrested for War Crimes. That is her off the Christmas Card list…

Hat-tip : Charles Crawford.


Seen Elsewhere

Apple’s Tim Cook: iGay | Techno Guido
Insurgent Parties Plunge Labour Into Crisis | Alex Wickham
Mind-Bending Politics of Drugs | Mark Wallace
PC Worries Prevent Police Protecting Young Girls | Jill Kirby
Miliband Should Win Rochester | Martin Kettle
Thatcher Minister Sir John Nott ‘Voted for UKIP’ | Times
Time to Listen to Drugs Experts | Guardian
Drug Laws Don’t Work | Times
Our Moral Duty to Cut Taxes | David Cameron
Greens Ahead of LibDems | Guardian
Channel 4 to Spoof UKIP Election Win | Guardian


VOTER-RECALL
Find out more about PLMR


David Cameron drug policy reformer and leadership contender in 2005…

“Politicians attempt to appeal to the lowest common denominator by posturing with tough policies and calling for crackdown after crackdown. Drugs policy has been failing for decades.”



“Digger” Murdoch says:

Is it just me, or is Nigel Farage just a top hat and a monocle away from being a Batman villain?


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