Saturday, October 4, 2008

Brown Buggered : Latest Poll of Marginals Has Labour Losing 164 Seats

The News of the World’s post conference season poll of marginals shows that things have got worse for Brown since last year – with Labour now looking set to lose 164 marginal seats (full data set pdf).

Can Mandy save Gordon? After taking a post-conference break from politics for a day to reflect and re-charge, Guido can only see this appointment as an act of desperation. Mandelson is despised by three-quarters of his own party. He is a poisonous political operator. He repels voters and represents so much of what is wrong with politics.

The Labour loyalist pundit David Aaronovitch was asked what he made of the return of Mandelson, “I don’t think I understand anything anymore” was his reply. The only way to understand this is to put yourself inside the mind of the politically weak Prime Mentalist. He needed to buy time. Bringing back Mandelson may buy off some of the former Blairites, hugging his enemy close. (Although if there is one person Charles Clarke hates more than Gordon Brown, it is Peter Mandelson). This won’t be welcomed by the voters.

UPDATE : Have just noticed, and this must be a first, that Kevin Maguire shares Guido’s analysis: Gordon Brown’s Bonkers Moment of Mandy Madness“. Glad to see Kevin, just like Polly did, is finally coming round…

Friday, October 3, 2008

+++ Sky : Yelland – Ex-Sun Editor to Downing Street +++

David Yelland was a vice-chairman at Weber Shandwick, where Mandelson protege Colin Byrne is CEO. Interesting to put a former Sun editor up against Andy Coulson, ex-editor of the News of the Screws…

UPDATE : No confirmation of this yet. Have not seen a retraction either.

UPDATE II 17.20 : Yelland is at Brunswick (former home of Stephen Carter).

UPDATE III : Friend of Yelland tells Guido – “Nah, embarrassingly for Adam, all bollocks. He was in yesterday telling them to calm down about The Sun showing support for Cam.”

Friday Caption Contest (Boy from Brazil Edition)

Whatever Happened to an "End to Spin"?

The return of a troika of three New Labour high priests of spin is striking. Draper is never off the airwaves, Campbell is popping up more and more often. Now the Prince of Darkness himself returns to Westminster from across the sea. New Labour lives!

UPDATE : Am beginning to think that Brown has been quite clever, with the return of Mandelson, he will no longer be the public’s most hated Labour politician. This is going to be more fun than an Irish wake.

+++ Mandy Back in Cabinet +++

Lord Mandy!

McSnide is going to spend more time with his Peroni.

Des Browne leaves government, Hoon goes to transport.

Newsnight is a Shambles, Come Back Peter Barron

Guido has given up on bothering to report the number of times they get the market report wrong, suffice to say that it might as well be a random number. If you can’t rely on a simple thing like that what does it say about the more nuanced reporting? On the day last week that U.S. markets had the huge downward move, Newsnight had a graph showing that it had plunged from roughly 10,100 to, errm, 10,400. Pathetically bad.

Grossman managed to pick up one decent story at Labour Party conference which led to the 3.15 a.m. drink fuelled McBride briefing. Two-ways from the conferences were persistently plagued by technical problems. One night Paxman said on air what all the viewers were thinking “it is a bit of a shambles here tonight.” They spent the conference season playing “Place the Face”, demonstrating that Michael Crick may have a more promising career as a game show host than an investigative reporter. Just a bit of fun? The Guidoisation of politics? Maybe, however is that dumbing down really a good use of the expensive resources of the BBC’s flagship current affairs programme? When Crick finished his Place the Face finale piece on Wednesday, Paxman sneered and Crick exited the stage a minute or two later walking across screen in front of the camera, a dark Crick shaped shadow obscuring the Newsnight discussion with Finkelstein and the pair of cliche merchants he spars with. It was emblemic of the state of the show. Amateurish isn’t the word for it.

They have a Trotskyite reporting from Wall Street on the travails of capitalism – comical. Iain Martin in the Telegraph has also lost patience with the only show the entire Westminster Village watches. They have yet to finalise a replacement for Peter Barron. They need someone to get a grip on it because it is becoming a joke.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Top o’ the Credit Ratings To You

Despite Gordon’s whining to the EU it is now the case that Irish banks now represent the safest place to deposit money in Europe, with a AAA guarantee from a country with the lowest national debt to GDP ratio of any AAA country. Thanks to Gordon’s prolificacy Irish commercial banks are safer than even the Bank of England.

UPDATE : Lots of whining in the comments about this, so may as well mention that WPP is joining the taxodus and leaving Brown’s Britain and re-domiciling in low tax Ireland.

UPDATE October 2010 : This is quoted at Guido on a regular as some kind of evidence of terrible analysis. It is the case that Irish bank paper became safer in 2008 than any other European bank paper once the state guarantee was in place. The question that should be asked: Was a state guarantee a good idea? The impairment this has now brought to Ireland’s sovereign credit rating suggests not.

Sky : Boris told Blair to Go

Sky’s Martin Brunt is reporting that in a meeting yesterday London’s Mayor, Boris Johnson told Labour’s favourite copper that he could not support him. Sir Iain later saw Jacqui Smith the home secretary for reasons unknown.

This will be a popular move in London, will be popular with rank and file coppers. Speculation is shifting to who could succeed him…

+++ Iain Blair Statement Imminent +++

Hopefully he will be saying “goodbye”.

Evil Short Sellers Part IV – MPs’ Pension Funds

There was a little union sponsored demo in Birmingham against “Cameron’s cronies cashing in on the credit crunch” organised by Charlie Wheelan. Unfortunately they seem to have missed out on the biggest short seller of Bradford and Bingley. None other than his old crony Paul Myners’ GLG Partners. Brown’s favourite financier, donor and deputy chairman of the Smith Institute, as well as Gordon’s personal financial backer during the leadership campaign.
GLG partners declared to the FSA the largest short position in the market, the massive hedge fund profited the most from being short Bradford and Bingley before it went under. If Charlie’s dozen strong rent-a-crowd don’t fancy demonstrating outside GLG’s City offices they could try demonstrating outside the Guardian’s offices. Myners is also chairman of the Guardian’s holding company.

Labour has also taken £1 million from Jon Aisbitt, non-executive chairman of Man Group, Britain’s biggest quoted hedge fund group. Derek Tullet, who made his money providing derivatives broking services to hedge funds, also sent £400,000 into Labour’s coffers.

Guido has already pointed out that one of the LibDems biggest backers, Paul Marshall of Marshall Wace, is an evil short seller with no less than three of his funds on the FSA’s register of short sellers.

It gets even better, the FT has discovered that MPs’ own pensions are invested in a hedge fund manager, Quellos. Not only that, in addition the MPs’ pension fund also made money lending stocks out to hedge funds to enable them to short shares. The hypocrisy is huge here, they condemn short sellers publicly and yet they roll up the profits of short selling in their pension plans.


Seen Elsewhere

Does Europe Really Want Britain to Quit? | Nick Wood
Immigration Nation | Hopi Sen
Tories Choose Anti-Israel Candidate in Rochester | JC
Osborne’s Daycare Obsession is a Time Bomb | Kathy Gyngell
BBC Marr Pinko Trying to Ban the Queen | Speccie
Eric Hobsbawm: Companion of Dishonour | Standpoint
Guido Party Gossip | Iain Dale
Russell Brand Comes Out as 9/11 Truther | Guardian
Health Revolution is Underway | Fraser Nelson
UKIP Gets Professional | Red Box
Kelly Tolhurst Wins Rochester Open Primary | BBC


VOTER-RECALL
Find out more about PLMR


Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann on Cameron’s refusal to pay the £1.7 billion EU bill by December 1st:

“Well, then he’s gonna pay on December 2nd”



Mycroft says:

Have you read the last bit of Animal Farm?

You know where the animals are looking through the Farmhouse window?

My TV screen was that window at lunch-time today.

Be careful, the sudden self-congratulatory tone, the slightly pudgy outline of indulgence and you become exactly what you should despise.

The jolly face of the Quisling Cameron poses for your camera has mesmerised and deceived you, you who were once not so deceived.

You were no firebrand, you were a damp squib in my opinion, sorry.

You need a damned good kick up the ahse!


Tip off Guido
Web Guido's Archives

Subscribe me to:






RSS


AddThis Feed Button
Archive


Labels
Guido Reads
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,544 other followers