Saturday, November 8, 2008

Lessons for Gordon and Dave

NZ Labour ran on exactly Gordon’s U.S.P.*, and it didn’t work. The voters in New Zealand overwhelmingly disagreed with Labour’s message, change and tax cuts won big in New Zealand. The “novice” promising tax cuts won.

Danny Finkelstein says voters don’t believe politician’s promises of tax cuts, Fink argues there is a credibility issue. John Key’s first manifesto pledge gave the three actual dates he would cut personal taxes for New Zealanders, a promise to take to the bank. His party won big.

Obama, another novice, ran promising tax cuts for 95% of Americans. The “novice” promising tax cuts won.

The incoherent Tory response to the financial crisis is manifestly weak, Osborne’s performance has disheartened even his own supporters, the lack of a clear message has weakened their credibility on economic issues significantly in the polls. Maybe Michael Ashcroft will have learnt something useful during his recent time with the NZ Nats that will influence the Tories for the better.

Times have changed, voters want the pendulum to swing back from spending towards tax cuts. Rumours are circulating in the Westminster Village that Gordon and Alastair are preparing to announce tax cuts. Which will, even if they are only rhetorical tax cuts, in a stroke make Dave and George look ridiculous as both Labour and the LibDems promise tax cuts and the Tories are left high and dry stranded on the high tax centre ground with only Danny Finkelstein for company. The old strategy may have been strategically right during the decontamination phase of Cameron’s leadership, it is so wrong for now. The recent electoral lessons from the rest of the English speaking world show that to “seal the deal” people now need a positive reason to vote for the Tories.

See also: NZ Nats Tax Calculator.

*Unique Selling Point

Friday, November 7, 2008

NO2ID : Latest Pictures

This is just in via a securely encrypted (to government standard) data transmission source. Somebody handed Guido a USB memory dongle in a pub. NO2ID are processing Jacqui Smith’s biometric data in a secure data acquisition unit at an undisclosed location.

The process is different to that required for merely identifying fingerprints – NO2ID intend to be able to reproduce Jacqui’s fingerprints. They tell Guido they are pretty confident as to the quality of the result.

Friday Caption Competition (Serious Candidate Edition)

Why South Africans Should Pay their TV Licences

Nhlanhla Nene, Chairman ANC, SA.

Labour Hold Glenrothes by Six Thousand

What is happening here – has Gordon’s Jonah curse been lifted?

  • He wished Lewis Hamilton well – and he still became World F1 champion.
  • Despite having met and been backed by Gordon, Barack won the Presidency.
  • Despite having visited the constituency, Labour didn’t lose.
The Tories beat the LibDems from third into fourth place, the LibDems had a disaster dropping ten percentage points. The SNP were very, very confident…

UPDATE : Should point out that it is fair to say that PoliticsHome’s PHI100 has now evened the score with the punters, although PoliticsHome did hedge themselves a bit with a press release splitting PHI 100 into politicians and pundits. Here’s what Rawnsley said yesterday

There’s a fascinating divide within the panel between the politicians and the media. The media panellists are political editors, leading commentators and executives. A solid majority of them are forecasting a win for the Nationalists. That puts them at odds with the politicians on the panel. They are MPs and peers, among them senior Ministers and Opposition frontbenchers, from all the main parties. A heavy majority of the politicians are predicting that Labour will hold the seat.

So the pundits still managed to get it wrong…

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Guardian Hack Names New Born Child "Barack"


Sweet.

Via : Tory Bear

Home Secretary’s Biometric Data Compromised

Jacqui Smith gave a speech today at midday on ID cards to an audience invited by the Social Market Foundation, at the end of the event the glass she was drinking from during the Q & A was whisked away* by a NO2ID sympathiser. This picture was taken this lunchtime – the glass is now undergoing a technical process at an undisclosed location. This will not only identify Big Jacqui’s fingerprints, it will allow them to create a plastic foil stamp that will enable anyone to leave her fingerprints behind. Last March German hackers cloned the German Interior Minister’s fingerprints.

The picture above shows the glass sitting on top of the speech she has just delivered assuring us that biometric data will be secure. See also here and here for more details on the hunt for Jacqui’s fingerprints…

*On legal advice the NO2ID campaign plans to return the glass tomorrow to the speech venue.

+++ NO2ID : "We Have Home Secretary’s Fingerprints" +++

…more to follow.

Sleazy Lobbyists Morgan Allen Moore Suspended from Political Lobbyist’s Standards Body

Morgan Allen Moore MAM, the lobbying firm which managed Peter Hain’s leadership campaign, has been suspended from the Association of Professional Political Consultants (APPC) for “non-compliance” for inter alia non-payment of fees and failure to register clients.Steve Morgan has not had a good year – already under investigation by the police for funding irregularities concerning the Hain for Labour campaign, MAM sued a former employee for libel because James Davenport alleged that MAM had, in breach of the APPC rules, provided campaign services to Peter Hain. The Mail on Sunday alleged that Peter Hain had endorsed MAM clients in what looked like a return of favours.

The MAM case against Davenport collapsed when evidence presented to the Court revealed that cheques were solicited to be sent to MAM’s offices in Cardiff and that MAM employees were dealing with the Hain4Labour campaign finances.

MAM is now reduced to running skeleton staff, with clients shying away and politicians refusing to talk to them, and their influence inevitably waning. Phil Woolas was said to be livid when he discovered that Deborah Morgan (Steve’s wife), for whom his office had arranged a Commons pass, was boasting on her lobby firm’s website that SD Environmental Solutions could influence decisions and had access at ministerial level. Woolas was at the time the Environment Minister.

Steve Morgan claimed to a credulous local paper that he was the “international spokesman” for the Obama campaign. Where was Obama’s international spokesman on the night of Obama’s victory? He was in a Yates’ wine bar in London watching it on TV. Tragic.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Guys Arrested, Searched, and Ticketed


Start:

Outside Downing Street:


Seen Elsewhere

Osborne’s Daycare Obsession is a Time Bomb | Kathy Gyngell
BBC Marr Pinko Trying to Ban the Queen | Speccie
Eric Hobsbawm: Companion of Dishonour | Standpoint
Guido Party Gossip | Iain Dale
Russell Brand Comes Out as 9/11 Truther | Guardian
Health Revolution is Underway | Fraser Nelson
UKIP Gets Professional | Red Box
Kelly Tolhurst Wins Rochester Open Primary | BBC
No.10 Ambushed by EU Prosperity Tax | Times
10 Years of Guido | Iain Dale
Tory MP Tells Leftie Jon Snow to Retire | Guardian


VOTER-RECALL
Find out more about PLMR


Rob Colvile reviews Russell Brand’s new book:

“Oddly, the person I feel sorriest for isn’t Brand himself – although he certainly comes across as a rather pitiable figure, projecting his own brokenness on to the world around him – but Johann Hari. Drummed out of Fleet Street for plagiarism, the former Independent columnist has washed up as “my mate Johann, who’s been doing research for this book”. For a genuinely talented polemicist, it would have been a humbling experience to have to treat this sub-undergraduate dross as the scintillating wisdom of a philosopher-king.”



Mycroft says:

Have you read the last bit of Animal Farm?

You know where the animals are looking through the Farmhouse window?

My TV screen was that window at lunch-time today.

Be careful, the sudden self-congratulatory tone, the slightly pudgy outline of indulgence and you become exactly what you should despise.

The jolly face of the Quisling Cameron poses for your camera has mesmerised and deceived you, you who were once not so deceived.

You were no firebrand, you were a damp squib in my opinion, sorry.

You need a damned good kick up the ahse!


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