Guido Predicts…

Boris will win and nothing else will really matter tomorrow. Polly Toynbee and all the rest of the chattering classes will choke on their words. Labour will finally understand in their collective consciousness that they made a terrible choice in replacing the triple election-winning Tony with the triple election-avoiding* Gordon.

They will also know that if Boris can win London, Cameron can win Britain. Gordon is a loser…

*1994 avoids risking challenging Tony for the leadership. July 2007 engineers a coronation through menace and intimidation to avoid a challenge for the leadership. October 2007 funks calling a general election to obtain a personal mandate in the face of a resurgent Conservative Party.

Short : "Arrest Blair for War Crimes"

It has just come to Guido’s attention that Claire Short was on Al Jazeera earlier this month calling for Tony Blair to be arrested for War Crimes. That is her off the Christmas Card list…

Hat-tip : Charles Crawford.

Crackers Speedily Spun Off

David Cracknell surprised many three months ago by leaving political journalism at the Sunday Times to join sleazy lobbyists LLM as chairman and also becoming an MD of Financial Dynamics.

Now he is off, saying “The valuable time spent here has opened my eyes to a number of opportunities outside the firm which it would not be possible to take up were I to continue. FD has been kind enough to release me and I am very grateful for that….” blah blah blah… Everyone is being suspiciously nice about things and smiling.

This should be a warning to the recent crop of hacks leaving journalism for the thicker pay packets of spin…

Dave Looks to May 2 at PMQs

Yesterday Guido pointed to the 42-days vote as the post May 2 battleline for the PLP:
Guido believes that constitutionally and practically it is too late to mount a formal leadership challenge to Brown’s under Labour Party rules in time for the September conference. So it would have to be by non-constitutional means that he is dragged out of Downing Street – Jack Straw no doubt will be at the back of the delegation doing the dragging. Another option is to make the 42-days vote effectively a confidence vote. Since the opposition will unanimously vote it down, it will be up to Labour backbenchers if they want to get rid of their unelected leader.

If Gordon kicks 42-days into touch it will signal his fears of the consequences…

Surpisingly today Dave didn’t go off on the local elections, he challenged Gordon to make the 42-days vote a confidence vote. Gordon swerved the opportunity.

A line of questioning from Dave perhaps aiming to sow a thought in the restless collective mind of the PLP…

UPDATE : Ben Brogan is thinking along similar lines. He gives Dave no chance of “getting the ball rolling on the next rebellion”.

Labour Cynically Exploit Tributes to Gwyneth for Data Mining

The readiness of New Labour to cynically exploit the goodwill of Gwyneth Dunwoody’s constituents (where she had a significant following) hit a low with the hasty announcement that Labour will rush the election in record time. Now they have been caught milking tributes for partisan advantage.

The official local party website invites you to leave a tribute to her – nothing wrong with that. Guido cynically wondered why the online tribute form asks not only for your name, but your house number, postcode and email address? It seems Guido was right to be cynical…

Before she is in the ground they are electioneering. If anyone from Labour claims that it is just an innocent opportunity to leave a tribute to the much-loved former MP they are being less than honest. A close study of the data capture process reveals that it includes a sophisticated software routine designed to look-up and verify the postcode and collect the data for Labour HQ in London. This is not a spontaneous local initiative – it was designed by Tangent Labs, the Labour Party’s national e-campaigns software contractors. Don’t forget to include this work in your election expenses chaps….

The data will no doubt be used to help with e-campaigning in what could be a closely fought battle. This by-election will be a prototype for General Election e-campaigning strategies…

Worry & Hurry for May 22 By-Election

The unseemly rush to have the Crewe & Nantwich by-election can only mean one thing – Labour are worried. Guido can’t recall an election being called before the body was buried before.

They obviously hope to prevent the opposition organising themselves and exploit the warm goodwill that still lingers from Gwyneth Dunwoody. The selection takes place Friday morning with the candidate to be announced Saturday night.

It suggests that they hope to get all the bad news out of the way before the summer. In time no doubt for yet another Brown re-launch…

UPDATE : Iain Dale speculates as to why Fraser Kemp won’t be performing his usual by-election role.

How Do You Like This Big Tent Gordon?

Kate Hoey will be Mayor Boris’ sports adviser in the run-up to the Olympics and if some rumours are to be believed, Brian Paddick, not Boris himself, will be his chair of the Metropolitan Police Authority. That would be sweet revenge for Paddick, although it might not be so comfortable for Sir Iain Blair…

One Labour insider has just told Guido that Labour will implement a scorched earth policy in an attempt to sabotage Boris at every turn. Just as they have squeezed the SNP government in Scotland budgetarily from the centre they will do the same in London. Central government under their control will collectively punish London’s voters for not voting Labour…

Post May 2 : Potential Battlelines

Gordon and the diminishing band of loyal Brownies must be thinking ahead to May 2 about the tactics and strategies to be employed to quell a PLP mutiny. The declining wider membership is so demoralised and disappointed that it is for now quiescient and no grassroots threat is likely. Avoiding giving the PLP opportunities to lash out at Gordon will be the prime goal.

With Mayor Boris in office and Labour suffering triple figure losses elsewhere, the keen sense of self preservation felt by politicians will come into action. Ken will no doubt blame Gordon (and his bad press), the timing of Gordon’s 10p debacle will be blamed by the legions of local councillors who will be mourning their lost jobs.

Guido believes that constitutionally and practically it is too late to mount a formal leadership challenge to Brown’s under Labour Party rules in time for the September conference. So it would have to be by non-constitutional means that he is dragged out of Downing Street – Jack Straw no doubt will be at the back of the delegation doing the dragging. Another option is to make the 42-days vote effectively a confidence vote. Since the opposition will unanimously vote it down, it will be up to Labour backbenchers if they want to get rid of their unelected leader.

If Gordon kicks 42-days into touch it will signal his fears of the consequences…

+++ United Business Media Flees UK Taxes +++

The company valued at £1.3 billion is fleeing the shores of Britain’s increasingly high tax regime, joining the FTSE 100’s Shire Pharma in what is becoming a trend as Britain becomes less competitive.

UBM will become tax resident in Ireland,

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Lights Go Out at City Hall

Like a biblical omen, darkness has fallen on Ken’s City Hall.

Due to flooding in the basement the power has been switched off. Has London ground to a halt? Has the lack of advice from diversity officers brought commerce to

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Gwyneth Funeral Next Week

Gwyneth Dunwoody’s funeral will be held at St Margaret’s Chapel in London on May 8 at midday.

The by-election date will be announced the following week – expect mid-June. Thursday’s local elections will be especially telling because due to boundary

[…]

+ READ MORE +

+++ YouGov: Boris 11% Ahead on First preferences +++

10% after second preferences…

[…]

+ READ MORE +



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