Download full analysis (pdf).
UPDATE : This just in from a co-conspirator:
I’ve been perusing the great work of fiction that is
Gordy’soops, the Chancellor’s growth forecasts, and on page 1 of Annex A: The Economy we have this bullet-pointed gem:
‘UK GDP growth of 3/4 % for 2008 with the economy contracting in the second half of the year’
Now, when the chancellor stood up at the dispatch box, three quarters of 2008 GDP growth were known:
Q1 0.3%In order to hit the forecast 0.75%, the economy has to grow at feisty 1% in the fourth quarter. Has the Chancellor been outside recently?
UPDATE II :Some querying via email of how the GDP quarterly statistics are precisely computed by someone who seems to know what they are talking about; “There are lies, damned lies and statistics”.