Guido’s Advice to Newbie MPs

First day for a couple of hundred or so new MPs today.  The thrill of looking for a new office, excitement at your new status, a slight sense of disbelief that you pulled it off.  Congratulations, well done.

Here’s some advice.  Read the Green Book, it is your responsibility to know the rules.  Better still read the Shadow Kelly Report on reforming the rules and best practise, there are copies in the House of Commons library.  Screw up and try to use the excuse “I thought it was within the rules” and you’ll be unemployed after the next election (which might be sooner than you think). 

Don’t claim for a single thing that you don’t want to see on the front page of your local constituency newspaper.

Why are you in parliament? If it just to climb the greasy pole of power (and for many of you it is) well nothing Guido says is going to influence you.  If you have ideals, hold onto them, resist all baubles and temptations that might lead you to abandon those ideals.  Being a backbench MP who influences legislation for the better is a worthy if not so glamorous role.

Finally, never forget Guido and his co-conspirators will be watching you.  Step out of line by doing the wrong thing and we’ll be down on you like a ton of bricks.  Be seeing you….

Markets Stable, Sterling Rising

Sterling is rising from lows against the dollar as the City expects a Lib-Con deal, gilts are going sideways, the EU Greece-Euro bailout is also cheering markets. Gilts are a buy if you believe a Lib-Con regime will take tough action on the deficit…

Rich & Mark’s Monday Morning View

Quote of the Day

Paul Mason writes

“…expect civil war between the Brown “machine” and all those hitherto excluded from it, from the moment the PM leaves office.”

Latest Speculation

The Speccie’s Fraser Nelson says the deal is on it just has to be sold to the Tory parliamentary party, half of whom are freshly minted, and the rank and file.

A deal looks likely to be agreed by Clegg and Cameron tomorrow morning, put to backbench MPs in the afternoon and then Brown will advise the Queen to send for Cameron on Tuesday.

Newsnight’s Paul Mason, who is as plugged into the Labour Party as Fraser is to the Conservatives, says the lights are going out and many want to “go gracefully into opposition and do it soon”. On the leadership issue

if the David Miliband camp and the Jon Cruddas camp were to get together it would make David Miliband hard to stop… This is being mooted but is not a done deal. Since Harriet Harman has ruled herself out of seeking the leadership [Has she really? Guido] I can see Ed Miliband emerging as a candidate backed by parts of the union movement (eg the GMB) who don’t want an alliance with David Miliband. Ed Balls would be backed to the hilt by the existing party machine, Unite and to an extent the “old Labour” left; also the Scottish Party.

The Labour NEC meets on Tuesday and Labour officials are in a rolling meeting schedule until then to decide how to respond if the party goes into opposition. One told me to expect civil war between the Brown “machine” and all those hitherto excluded from it, from the moment the PM leaves office.

Labour is heading for irrelevance…

Clegg Meets Brown, Lib-Con Deal Yet to be Struck

Vodpod videos no longer available.

The Change Coalition is not in the bag, we could still be looking at a confidence and supply deal rather than seeing the LibDems in government. If the Tories are unwilling to offer PR and the wider LibDem party blocks a deal without it, all bets could be off. Krishnan Guru-Murthy (C4 News) has sketched out a very different scenario which would follow Gordon Brown quitting:-

The process this would involve is so convoluted as to make it almost certainly impossible – but the theory goes that Gordon Brown resigns as Labour leader but not as prime minister, while Harriet Harman as caretaker leader negotiates with Nick Clegg. This would be on the basis that David Miliband will stand unopposed by any serious candidate as new Labour leader, so that the Lib Dems know exactly who they would go into government with eventually.

Once the deal is done Gordon Brown goes to the palace and advises the Queen that the caretaker Harriet Harman can form a government with the Lib Dems, then once Labour has its new leader in place she goes to the palace and advises the Queen that Miliband will be taking over as prime minister.

Guru-Murthy admits “it sounds either so mad as to be unworkable, or so intricately thought through as to be plausible. It also requires Ed Balls and Ed Miliband to give up their hopes of Labour leadership.” That is a big if…

Labour Leadership Fight Starts Next Week

Target GordonWhatever the formal line is in public, Gordon Brown is finished.  After Clegg’s rejection the Labour Party is hoping he will now quickly accept it and make way without any requirement for any unpleasantness.  John Mann obviously hasn’t got the memo and openly called for him to go yesterday.

Guido is quite surprised that David Miliband is such a hot favourite to be the next leader of the Labour Party.  He is somewhat handicapped by being the anointed Blair-Mandelson candidate, perhaps it is just because he is not Ed Balls or Harriet Harman.

Ed Balls is the Brownite kamikaze candidate, if you liked the last three years, you’ll love a Balls-led Labour Party.  He is now very weakened personally, his reputation and standing diminished by turning a safe Labour seat into a marginal requiring a recount on election night.  Despite Charlie Whelan’s Unite throwing union money and manpower behind him in a big way he was ominously unappealing to the public.  His characteristically graceless post-count speech with an aggressive “New Labour lives on” tone was authentic Balls and he did himself no favours  with it within the Labour Party.  All of which perhaps explains why he is behind Harriet Harman at the bookies.

Ed Miliband and Alan Johnson have some backers, but Guido wonders if they are really up for the fight.  Alastair Darling or Jack Straw might be a safe pair of hands until the next election if the Labour Party collectively really thinks we will have another in the autumnSources close to Hain say he won’t let his vanity get the better of him this time.

HARRIET4LEADERGuido has a few quid on Harriet.  She is her own woman, she isn’t tainted by being seen as the creature of  Blair and Mandelson like Miliband.  She is not an unpleasant Brownite bullying thug like Balls.  What she lacks in intellect she makes up for with determination and the fight in her.

She is not to be underestimated.

Tweet Predicting Election Test Confirms GIGO Principle

Guido has long criticised the predictive methodology of Tweetminster – they take the number of tweets and based on the positive or negative sentiment of the tweets, predict the related outcome.  When they predicted Labour would be the biggest party before the election Guido offered them a bet, they didn’t take him up on his offer.

Tweetminster predicted Esther Rantzen would win Luton South based on positive tweets for the fading celeb – the prediction garnered them a few headlines from gullible hacks.  Despite masses of media coverage Esther polled a mere 1,872 votes and lost her deposit.  Let us hear no more of the predictive ability of Twitter, it is snake-oil.

There is a long established mantra coined by George Fuechsel, an IBM engineer back in the days of mainframes, which was soon contracted to the acronym “GIGO” and can be applied here – Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Quote of the Day

David Cameron writes…

“Inevitably, these negotiations will involve compromise. But that’s what working together in the national interest means. I hope we can sort things out as quickly as possible, for the good of the country.”[…]

+ READ MORE +

Dave Wants Deal

Dave has just written to Tory supporters:-

I want to make clear that I do not believe any future government should give more powers to Brussels, be weak on immigration or put the country’s defences at risk. So we will

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Clegg : We’ll Build New Economy from the Rubble of the Old


Bye, bye Gordon…
[…]

+ READ MORE +

Let Sunlight into the Backrooms

The LibDems are haggling in a backroom in Smith Square because they can’t fit inside their HQ in Cowley Street.

When Clegg comes out of the negotiating room he should explain clearly what his party’s position is going to be […]

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Labour MP Jamie Reed:

“I apologise to every man, woman and child in this country who needs a Labour government.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

£500,000 EXPENSES FRAUDSTER MEP JAILED £500,000 EXPENSES FRAUDSTER MEP JAILED
SEUMAS MILNE PRAISES HAMAS SEUMAS MILNE PRAISES HAMAS
ALLEGED GRANNY BASHER MP IN COURT TODAY ALLEGED GRANNY BASHER MP IN COURT TODAY
CORBYN AGREES BBC ARE “ZIONIST LIARS” CORBYN AGREES BBC ARE “ZIONIST LIARS”
LABOUR IN CRISIS LABOUR IN CRISIS
KHAN ON KEN, KEN ON KHAN KHAN ON KEN, KEN ON KHAN
CORBYN’S CALLAGHAN MOMENT CORBYN’S CALLAGHAN MOMENT
BERNARD JENKIN ACCUSES NO. 10 OF CASH FOR QUESTIONS BERNARD JENKIN ACCUSES NO. 10 OF CASH FOR QUESTIONS
JOHN MANN TELLS KEN “YOU’RE A F**KING DISGRACE” JOHN MANN TELLS KEN “YOU’RE A F**KING DISGRACE”
KHAN CAMPAIGNED FOR NAZ SHAH, DEFENDED KEN ON ANTI-SEMITISM KHAN CAMPAIGNED FOR NAZ SHAH, DEFENDED KEN ON ANTI-SEMITISM
KEN: “HITLER WAS SUPPORTING ZIONISM” KEN: “HITLER WAS SUPPORTING ZIONISM”
NEUBERGER AND LEVY ON LABOUR’S ANTI-SEMITISM NEUBERGER AND LEVY ON LABOUR’S ANTI-SEMITISM
RUPA HUQ DEFENDS NAZ SHAH’S ANTI-SEMITISM RUPA HUQ DEFENDS NAZ SHAH’S ANTI-SEMITISM
Carly Fiorina Sings Lullaby Carly Fiorina Sings Lullaby
BRADFORD COUNCILLOR POSTED GOEBBELS NAZI FILM “THE ETERNAL JEW” BRADFORD COUNCILLOR POSTED GOEBBELS NAZI FILM “THE ETERNAL JEW”
NAZ SHAH SUSPENDED BY LABOUR NAZ SHAH SUSPENDED BY LABOUR
Naz Shah’s Pro-Hamas Tweets Naz Shah’s Pro-Hamas Tweets
FARAGE RESPONDS TO “PONCEY” JIBE FARAGE RESPONDS TO “PONCEY” JIBE
PM: “EXTRAORDINARY” NAZ SHAH STILL HAS LABOUR WHIP PM: “EXTRAORDINARY” NAZ SHAH STILL HAS LABOUR WHIP
SHADOW CABINET SPLIT: LISA NANDY TELLS CORBYN TO SACK NAZ SHAH SHADOW CABINET SPLIT: LISA NANDY TELLS CORBYN TO SACK NAZ SHAH
TREASURY CAN PREDICT FUTURE TO 2030, CAN’T WORK OUT COST OF BREXIT REPORT TREASURY CAN PREDICT FUTURE TO 2030, CAN’T WORK OUT COST OF BREXIT REPORT
NAZ SHAH EMPLOYED “ZIO”-HATER AS TAXPAYER-FUNDED AIDE NAZ SHAH EMPLOYED “ZIO”-HATER AS TAXPAYER-FUNDED AIDE
NAZ SHAH RUNS CHARITY WITH ANTI-SEMITIC LABOUR COUNCILLOR NAZ SHAH RUNS CHARITY WITH ANTI-SEMITIC LABOUR COUNCILLOR
FRANK FIELD’S LEFT-WING CASE FOR BREXIT FRANK FIELD’S LEFT-WING CASE FOR BREXIT
NAZ SHAH COMPARED ISRAELIS TO HITLER NAZ SHAH COMPARED ISRAELIS TO HITLER
FREE ADVERTISING WORTH £135,000-A-WEEK FOR REMAIN CAMPAIGN FREE ADVERTISING WORTH £135,000-A-WEEK FOR REMAIN CAMPAIGN
NAZ SHAH RESIGNS AS JOHN MCDONNELL’S PPS NAZ SHAH RESIGNS AS JOHN MCDONNELL’S PPS
BBC DID REVEAL HILLSBOROUGH VERDICT YESTERDAY BBC DID REVEAL HILLSBOROUGH VERDICT YESTERDAY
NAZ SHAH: “THE JEWS ARE RALLYING” NAZ SHAH: “THE JEWS ARE RALLYING”
JUNIOR DOCTORS: IT’S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY JUNIOR DOCTORS: IT’S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY