So Much for the Santa Claus Rally

Those of you who have been following Guido’s trading on the right will have seen it jump substantially last week. Guido was short Dow and FTSE futures which collapsed after the auto-bailout deal in Washington failed midweek, closed all the positions before the yanks could cobble together some compromise. Booked profits for the trading for the last three months are 97% – Mrs Fawkes hinted that perhaps going back to full-time trading might be more lucrative than blogging. Perhaps, however this was performance off a small amount of capital, the Value-at-Risk was sometimes leveraged 20 times, it was pure risk money and Guido got lucky.

Basically the trades were shorting the pound versus the euro, selling rallies in the Dow and FTSE, quickly covering after significant drops. Somehow Guido managed to lose money twice trading from the long side on Gold futures just before retracements rather than just buying and holding. Sir Michael White sneered at Guido for recommending buying gold as we shift towards Mugabonomics and the Bank of England sets the printing presses rolling. Gold is the safest refuge and the cost of carry with interest rates tending towards zero is ever more favourable to passive holders of the metal.

Sterling investors who bought gold at the beginning of the year have seen it rise 28% from £424 to £544 an ounce. If in 2009 we see “quantitative easing” (printing money), holding gold will be insurance as much as an investment. If you have apocalyptic fears, holding physical gold coins is reassuring.

Won’t be keeping a diary of trades on the blog next year, because this is a politics blog and some (not all) readers find it boring and/or self indulgent. Not bothered about being self indulgent (it is a personal blog) but being boring won’t do.

Friday Caption Competition

For You Herr Brown, the Boom is Over

Steffen Kampeter, is the budget spokesman for Merkel’s CDU, last night he backed Peer Steinbrück (the SPD finance minister), saying he was “exactly expressing” the views of the government. Yesterday Balls and Brown were spinning bullshit saying that this was internal German coalition politics – in fact it is the shared view of both the CDU and the SPD.

Kampeter put the boot into Crash Gordon: “Peer Steinbrück’s comments have nothing whatsoever to do with internal German politics as Prime Minister Brown has suggested. In questioning the British Government’s approach, Peer Steinbrück is exactly expressing the views of the German Grand Coalition. After years of lecturing us on how we need to share in the gains of uncontrolled financial markets, the Labour politicians can’t now expect us to share in it’s losses. The tremendous amount of debt being offered by Britain shows a complete failure of Labour policy.”

Did Dale Bribe Labour MP Ann Moffat?

The cover of the Total Politics January edition depicts Harriet Harman as Wonder Woman. Which is ridiculous, because as any fool knows, Crash Flash Gordon’s partner was Dale Arden.

Trying to make a joke of the Prime Mentalists Freudian slip Harman has just told the house that she would “rather have Superman as our leader than their leader who is The Joker”. Immediately after that quip Ann Moffat chipped in “Wonder Woman does it again…”

So either Dale is paying for promotional product placement or the whole Labour Party is gripped with a delusion of superpowers.

Balls : Germans Don’t Really Mean It

All the usual mantras: “doing the right thing”, “Gordon is the Messiah”. Who believes this rubbish?

Even Nick Robinson isn’t buying it “There is, dare I suggest, another perfectly plausible theory. Mr Steinbruck believes what he says and does agree rather more with Mr Cameron than with Mr Brown, even though they come from the opposite ends of the political spectrum.”

EU Dirty Ratifiers

Reports from Brussels coming in suggest that Ireland’s political elite are allowing their arms to be twisted by the EU into ignoring the “No!” vote in the referendum and having another one. This comes as absolutely no surprise – the undemocratic nature of the EU project has always been manifest. It has a semblance of voting but the outcome is as pre-determined as a Soviet-era party congress. On the rare occasions when the project comes off the rails, nothing, not even the will of the people will stop it.

Irish citizens were the only people in Europe allowed to express their democratic will. They said “NO!” The EU’s dirty ratifiers won’t accept that answer.

German Finance Minister Mocks Brown’s "Great Rescue Plan"

“All this will do is raise Britain’s debt to a level that will take a whole generation to work off” says Peer Steinbrück, the German finance minister. He isn’t a conservative finance minister from Merkel’s CDU, he is a Social Democrat member of the coalition government.

Worth reading the full interview in Newsweek. Devastating.

UPDATE : Ed Balls lying on Sky this morning basically says Peer doesn’t really mean it and is only saying it because of “internal coalition politics”. Which makes absolutely no sense. Total Balls.

Messy Business

Crash Gordon – Saved the World (In His Mind)

A Freudian slip from the Prime Mentalist? In his own mind he believes he is the saviour of the global economy, his bail-out copied from the Swedes, he reckons has been copied by all. Sarkozy thinks differently, Merkel thinks he

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Wednesday Wartime

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Charles Moore is Britain’s Gandhi :200,000 Pledge Not to Pay TV Licence

Since launching last August the Campaign to Abolish the TV Licence has received over 200,000 online pledges not to pay as of the beginning of December. That is pretty good going for a new and unfunded grassroots campaign.

In 1930

[…]

+ READ MORE +

The Tax Base is Fading to Grey

The number of people over state pension age is now officially greater than the number of children for the first time in our history. Today there are 4 people of working age for every person of retirement age. By 2050

[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Out of the bubble prole Andy Burnham tells Mumsnet

“I’m afraid I’m going to depress you all by saying that I don’t have a sweet tooth and don’t eat biscuits… Give me a beer and chips and gravy any day.”

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