Punters Back Reid to Run

As the dire electoral performance drives home to the less lemming-like members of the Labour party the actual value of Gordon, money has shifted over to Reid on Betfair. The graph shows how the price has come in over the last five days. Guido is frankly not convinced that Reid is willing to do battle with the dark forces.

Guido still has a few quid on John Hutton just in case he tries a Kamikaze battle of “ideas” with the man he said “would make a fucking useless PM”. 300/1 seems fair…

UPDATE : Don’t bother with Hutton – he has given an interview to GMTV for broadcast tomorrow where he bends the knee and pledges allegiance to Gordon.

Bookies Make Ming Even Money To Go

Mike Smithson over at PoliticalBetting.com alerts us to fact that Wiliam Hill have opened a book on Ming going before the General Election. His position is clearly weakened by the squeeze suffered by the LibDems nationally. The very real possibility of the LibDems finding themselves near-bankrupted by the necessity of paying back the millions from their fraudster backer adds to the pressure. He could very easily suffer health problems that force him to stand down. Such as a knife protruding from his back…

Where’s Gordon?™The Trail of his Scottish Campaign from Beginning to End

The author of Courage : Eight Portraits is, as predicted, nowhere to be seen today – unlike the last 30 days of campaigning when he was never out of a photo-op, usually well away from hostile voters and in the middle of children. Since the voters have opted for the SNP over Gordon’s Scottish Labour, he can hardly claim that the negative election result was down to Blair. He was all over Scotland for the duration of the campaign.

So why is he in hiding now? There is talk that he is depressed, that internally he realises he has the loser gene. That is the way it looks today.

Click below to interactively follow Gordon’s journey to defeat.
Click on any day to find out what he did, when and where.

Hat-tip : Javelin for “Invisible Gordon”

H4L : How Much is Hain’s Campaign Costing?

Hain, being ex-Liberal party lacks grassroots Labour support, hence his reliance on SpAds and lobbyists to run his campaign. Rank and file members are very tribal – he isn’t trusted.

Despite having an effectively taxpayer subsidised campaign he still has some spending to do. And according to this document that has been passed to Guido he plans to spend little short of a cool six-figures on his campaign.

The campaign’s expenditure summary can be downloaded here.

Notice no allowance made for mobile phones and Blackberries (SpAds have government issued mobiles and Blackberries, you pay for them). Hain is pressing the flesh everywhere he goes and putting the travel down to ministerial expenses (you pay again) he is hosting drinks parties for journalists (as a minister of course, nothing to do with the leadership battle, you pay for that as well).

But who is coughing up for Hain’s expensive campaign? Sleazy lobbyist Steve Morgan is running the show…

Where’s Gordon?™ Today

Hiding until he knows the Scottish result? Blair has given an interview, Cameron has given an interview, even Ming has shown his face. If Labour hold off the SNP, Gordon will be smiling and claiming credit. If they lose he’ll be nowhere to be seen…

Friday Caption Competition

SNP Knife-Edge Choppy for Punters

Guido has been trading the Betfair Scottish Most Seats market on Betfair badly as it bounces around. The odds have been inconclusive. Guido has managed to get himself into a situation where he wins £1.30 if Labour are the biggest party and loses substantially on every other possible outcome.

Which reminds Guido, the Observer’s Mark Townsend still hasn’t paid up his gambling losses despite many hints.

Faker Outed

For Guido the best result of the night came from Lawrence Hill in Bristol, where the the photo-faking Busharat Ali lost to the LibDems. Despite some innovative other uses of the net – Bhangra campaign videos were, errrm, different.

His rather bad attempt at photoshopping a leaflet to show him at a place he was not, probably contributed to him not being on the council.

One good result on the night for the LibDems…

Tomorrow Labour Party Will Sack Blairite Staff

Post elections political parties often cutback on staff. Guido hears that tomorrow a number of party workers who could be described as as loyal Blairites will be getting their P45s. Those who have shown unstinting loyalty to Gordon have more chance of holding on to their jobs in these cash-strapped times. So much for Brownite inclusivity…

UPDATE : Some scepticism in the comments that P45s are going out tomorrow, but am assured by people getting sacked that they know it is coming.

UPDATE II : Just got an email saying “A lot of staff, including me, are leaving after the election. Not sacked, more subtle than that, asked to leave, told we’re not welcome/no future.”

Can He Count On Your Vote?

Hat-tip : Samizdata

Blair Will Still Be PM Next Week, He Won’t Resign

This morning there is some confusion about the Lobby, the PMOS told the Lobby this morning that
“the Prime Minister was not announcing his resignation as Prime Minister next week. That is not what he would be doing. What the Prime Minister would be doing would be setting out his intentions but he would not be resigning as Prime Minister next week. Asked if he was resigning as leader of the Labour Party, the PMOS said it was a Party, not Government matter and the question the PMOS had been asked was about the Prime Minister’s role as Head of Government. After the Prime Minister has announced his intention he will remain Prime Minister. Asked if the Prime Minister would not go and see the HM the Queen next week but after the leadership contest has been concluded, the PMOS said at last the penny had dropped.”

Last week Blair himself said he would be making a party related announcement. Before the 2005 general election Guido suggested that Blair might opt for the Aznar option to square his promise to serve a full term. Look closely at the form of words Blair used prior to Labour’s party conference:
“I think what is important now is that we understand that it’s the interests of the country that come first and we move on. I would have preferred to do this in my own way… The next party conference in a couple of weeks will be my last party conference as party leader, the next TUC conference next week will be my last TUC – probably to the relief of both of us.”

That word formula commits him only to standing down as leader of the party. Nothing about standing down as PM.

Blair can argue that he gave a commitment to the people at the general election to serve a full term and the voters gave him that mandate. He can also argue that he gave a promise to give the next leader of the Labour party time to bed in. If he stood down as Labour leader but not as PM he could keep both promises. It would also let him keep his grip on power as he tries deserately to get radical Blairite policies and reforms implemented.

José María Aznar lost the support of the people who had voted for the Partido Popular in 2000 and had to pledge not to run again. In January 2004 Aznar called new elections and designated his candidate, Mariano Rajoy, sticking to his pledge of not seeking office for a third term.

Is the Aznar option in Britain so outrageous? Has Blair given up the fight for Blairite policies and accepted his legacy will be Iraq and criminal corruption charges against his aides?

Guido is certain that Blair will still be PM next week, he will be resigning only as party leader. Could he shaft Brown one last time? Would the Labour party support him as PM until the next general election? Outrageous? At his last conference as leader he told us “there are no rules in politics”

Censorship and Civility

It will come as no surprise that Guido has no intention of abiding by any Code of Conduct as advocated by Tessa Jowell yesterday. She wants the bloggersphere (sic) to be “OurSpace”, a public commons. Well here is the bad news Tessa, this online space is private property.

To be fair she was advocating self – censorship rather than state – censorship. Iran and China have blogger Codes of Conduct that are voluntary. If you insult religion or undermine the party you are volunteering to go to jail. One woman’s incivility is another blogger’s freedom of speech. It may not be to the taste of politicians or self-appointed arbiters of blogging protocol, but that is how it is, freedom of speech means you will find people saying disagreeable things in disagreeable ways.

Online rudeness and rowdiness are not a threat to democracy, blogging is not even a parody of democracy, it is a bit of software that allows everyone with an internet connection to publish online easily. That is it. The revolution will not be blogged, but the advance of the citizen journalist means that, hopefully “the truth” will be more likely to come out in the future. It is certainly harder for those in power to manipulate the media when the media is more horizontally dispersed because it includes thousands more independent sources. Some of which you will inevitably not like.

Today is World Press Freedom day. Bloggers are in jail around the world for insulting the state, religion and the dignity of their rulers. It can’t happen here can it?

None of the Above


Click on Image for Guido’s manifesto

Where’s Gordon?™ Day 30

Gordon is in Brussels and then going to Scotland campaigning, missing from PMQs yet again.

Where’s Gordon? tracks Gordon’s campaign trail as he tries to shore up the Labour vote. Yesterday he was, as always, at a photo op at a school…

Stringfellow Not Standing for Tory Mayor

Bit hungover* after having dinner with Peter Stringfellow at his new club The Wardour. He gave a rousing speech to an enthusiastic crowd from the Young Britons’ Foundation who were there to celebrate May Day in a plutocratic capitalist style. Alas, Stringy declined to throw his hat into the ring for Mayor of London because he told Guido, at 66 he needs all his energy for his 24-year-old fiancée.

Guido’s campaign for a knighthood for Peter in recognition of his contribution to the cultural life of our nation continues. Sign the petition to the Queen and show your appreciation. Do it, and right this wrong.

*Have an interesting video to upload from the night…

Shop-a-SpAd : Maguire Grasses Blears’ SpAd

Hazel Blears’ taxpayer-funded aide is working a little too hard on the motorbiker’s campaign says the Mirror’s Kevin Maguire.

Fresh from flogging campaign T-shirts from a sweatshop, her SpAd Paul Richards is working on her leadership campaign on the taxpayer’s time.[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Heather Wheeler talks to Burton Mail about her tweet…

“It was a tongue in cheek pop after the European Parliament tweet – it was purely that. I also wanted to congratulate Team GB on a brilliant result and thirdly congratulate the Commonwealth countries who also did very well. Fourth, I am also looking forwarded to establishing new trade agreements. That was it – nothing more. Let’s just enjoy the summer!”

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