+++ LIVE CHAT INTERACTIVE +++

@ 22.33

Boris Johnson 1.17 / 1.18

Ken Livingstone 6.4 / 6.8

Brian Paddick 370 / 490

@ 22.42

Betfair has First preference percentage share bets

Punters are backing Boris to have more than 40% and Ken to have between 35% to 40%.

Des Browne is chanting on Question Time “there is no issue of Gordon’s leadership” clearly this mantra is the offical “line to take”.

@ 23.05

Richard Littlejohn just right-hooked Polly Toynbee with a counter-punch when she asked what did he know about people on average wages. he retorted with an inquiry about her flights to her villa in Italy. She looked shaken and said “lets not get into this way”. Oh please do…

Stat-Porn April Drill Down :593,233 Pageviews from 406,732 Visits

All here in Google Analytical technicolour detail for downloading. Statcounter recorded 602,817 pageviews from 433,702 visitors. Guido won’t quibble…

The Calculus of Political Pain and Pleasure

This PoliticsHome derived chart pretty much sums up the political pain / pleasure calculus for the parties tonight. Given only some 4,000 seats are up for grabs, rather than the 10,000 seats last time, it would be be extraordinary to see a 200 seat move. If the LibDems keep their losses low they will have done well. If Labour loses seats to below the level of Blair’s Warmongering low that literally decimated Labour last time (and paved the way for Brown to “save the party”) the recriminations will flow like Tory champagne…

Via : New Statesman

Ipsos-Mori V YouGov

Today will be the day where YouGov makes or breaks its reputation. YouGov alone is predicting victory for Boris – the rest of the major pollsters go for Ken by slim margins. Last night it looked to Guido like Ipsos-Mori were in CYA* mode, posting comments on PoliticalBetting.Com nuancing their position. Punters believe and trust YouGov…

Mori in the past have spun bad calls with “last minute surge” lines. Expect more of the same…


*Cover Your Ass

Zimbabwe and Britain : Parallels (I)

A co-conspirator draws an interesting parallel.

From The History of Zimbabwe based on Nyerere’s recollections:

During tension between the two political leaders Julius Nyerere summoned Nkomo then Mugabe to talks to try and reconcile them. When Mugabe went in and was offered a seat, Mugabe refused and went up to Nyerere’s face and told him “If you think I’m going to sit right where that fat bastard just sat, you’ll have to think again”. As a result of this strained relationship with the two, fighting between ZANLA and ZIPRA soldiers only increased and widened the gap between the two men.

From The Mail On Sunday based on Prescott’s memoirs:

Mr Prescott, who will stand down as an MP at the next election, also tells of more comical encounters, including the time the then Chancellor insisted on having a larger chair at a peace-making dinner. Mr Blair reportedly said: “I’m used to Gordon looking down on me.”

+++ YouGov Whisper Number Has Boris Ahead 6% +++

Mike Smithson has the whisper from a reliable source that YouGov’s last poll has Boris “leading Ken 44%-36% on first preferences. After second preferences that becomes 53% to 47%.”

Guido Predicts…

Boris will win and nothing else will really matter tomorrow. Polly Toynbee and all the rest of the chattering classes will choke on their words. Labour will finally understand in their collective consciousness that they made a terrible choice in replacing the triple election-winning Tony with the triple election-avoiding* Gordon.

They will also know that if Boris can win London, Cameron can win Britain. Gordon is a loser…

*1994 avoids risking challenging Tony for the leadership. July 2007 engineers a coronation through menace and intimidation to avoid a challenge for the leadership. October 2007 funks calling a general election to obtain a personal mandate in the face of a resurgent Conservative Party.

Short : "Arrest Blair for War Crimes"

It has just come to Guido’s attention that Claire Short was on Al Jazeera earlier this month calling for Tony Blair to be arrested for War Crimes. That is her off the Christmas Card list…

Hat-tip : Charles Crawford.

Crackers Speedily Spun Off

David Cracknell surprised many three months ago by leaving political journalism at the Sunday Times to join sleazy lobbyists LLM as chairman and also becoming an MD of Financial Dynamics.

Now he is off, saying “The valuable time spent here

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Dave Looks to May 2 at PMQs

Yesterday Guido pointed to the 42-days vote as the post May 2 battleline for the PLP:

Guido believes that constitutionally and practically it is too late to mount a formal leadership challenge to Brown’s under Labour Party rules in time

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Labour Cynically Exploit Tributes to Gwyneth for Data Mining

The readiness of New Labour to cynically exploit the goodwill of Gwyneth Dunwoody’s constituents (where she had a significant following) hit a low with the hasty announcement that Labour will rush the election in record time. Now they have been

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Worry & Hurry for May 22 By-Election

The unseemly rush to have the Crewe & Nantwich by-election can only mean one thing – Labour are worried. Guido can’t recall an election being called before the body was buried before.

They obviously hope to prevent the opposition organising

[…]

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

David Cameron tells MPs after voting:

“Wouldn’t miss this for the world. Secret ballots very important. Remember the Chartists.”

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