Mortgage Repossessions Set to Explode

“We will not return to the old boom and bust.”

Gordon Brown, 11th Budget Statement, 21 March 2007

Housing market: Repossessions
Court actions for Recovery of Residential Housing and Land, England and Wales, from 1996

Source: Department for Constitutional Affairs & HM Courts Service

Politicians Can’t Hide from Guido

Dateline : Tuscany, Tuesday – via a co-conspirator.If Guido can get a shot David, so can Al Qaeda. Perhaps he thinks the feeble boyish moustache and tan disguise will fool them…

Boom to Bust : Stocks Down 10% this Month

Stocks dropped 4% today, the FTSE 100 is down 10% this month and big UK mortgage lender Northern Rock has halved in price since the beginning of the year. What are the political ramifications for Gordon? Well didn’t he tell us he had abolished boom to bust?

Guido Writes for New Statesman

Bet you thought you’d never see that. Don’t worry it “was for charidee”. Amnesty actually. The article is about the Chinese online campaigner and now political prisoner, Shi Tao, and an email that got him a ten year prison sentence.
Tomorrow Guido will be writing here about the wrongdoings of a New Statesman ex-staff member. Someone who should actually be locked up for political corruption.

Bring Me Sunshine..

Schools Shadow Michael Gove has just sent out a press release saying “I’d like to congratulate Britain’s A-level students on their successes. Securing good results in these examinations follows years of hard work and dedicated application. Today is a day for celebrating achievement and excellence and I very much hope that as many students as possible now find the place they want at university.”

Which is a change from the Tory responses of the past “these dumbed down grades are worthless and will only get you a place doing some mickey mouse degree at a third-rate graduate factory”. The Govemeister is doing that Cameroonie thing of being sickly sweet and positively optimistic. They are voters after all…

The Miliblog is Back…

And this time it is Ed. Guido understands that David wanted to continue blogging but the FCO mandarins explained that whilst it was fine to pontificate about green wonkery on his blog when he was at Defra, blogging about the negotiating strategy with the North Koreans was more problematic.

Never mind, his brother Ed is going to continue the family tradition of wasting the taxpayers money writing the blogging equivalent of drying paint. This is a screenshot of the prototype site. Stop monging on the web Miliband minor and do some work…

Wonder how many thousands this will cost the taxpayers?

Cameron Copies Bertie Ahern

The Galway Races were on last week – a huge part of the season over here matched only by Cheltenham or Ascot. New Irish money means that the sky is full of helicopters at an event that all of Irish society attends.

The Irish premier, Bertie Ahern, is a cute fund raiser and his party, Fianna Fail, hosts a big fund raising tent at the races which through a combination of alcohol and gambling bravado regularly raises six-figure sums over the week. It possibly raises more, but with Bertie and Fianna Fail you never know where all the money goes…

So it is with some amusement that Guido learns that Dave is going to try something similar. According to the WestMidlands Conservatives website “the Conservative Party Treasurers’ Midlands Income Generation Board has teamed up with Uttoxeter Racecourse to provide a special fund raising race day for the Party, both locally and regionally. The Party Leader, David Cameron MP will be attending along with other members of the Shadow Cabinet as well as senior MPs and MEPs from around the country.”

Place your bets please…

Rich & Mark’s Monday Morning View

Friday Caption Contest (Begging Bercow Edition)

SNP Surge 15% Ahead of Labour in Scotland

The SNP in power have not performed as disastrously as Labour’s pre-election scaremongering depicted. Remember the dire warnings of capital flight and businesses re-locating? Which explains why in office their poll ratings have surged – expectations were so unrealistically low.

A lot of Scottish Labour MPs will be very worried by the prospect of an early election in Scotland… no “Brown bounce” in to be seen at home…

Contrarian? Crazy?

Six months ago the Tories looked set for victory at the next general election, they were the odds on favourites, Labour activists were downhearted. Now things have reversed, Dave is in trouble and can do nothing right. So Guido just put £50 on Betfair on the Tories being the biggest party after the general election.
Why? Well look at the price chart, it appears to have topped out recently with firm support from punters at an implied probability of 40%. Clearly Guido is not the only one who thinks it can’t get any worse for the Tories.

The Ashcroft marginal seats machine is purring away quietly, the SNP control Scotland and seem to be doing well and that will require Labour to divert resources to shore up their crumbling position. The Cameron project’s problems coming now mean they have plenty of time to recover and adjust their approach before the general election. Brown is spinning that the election is around the corner, it ain’t – Labour is bust financially.

Talking of of bust, boom to bust is the other factor. The U.S. economy is spluttering, the property market has some worrying signs, unemployment is as high as it was under Thatcher in 1979*, interest rates are up, inflation is up, government debt is prolific, mortgages payments are ballooning, home repossessions are astonishing and bankruptcies are at a record rate. Brown has not abolished the economic cycle.

So in six months the economic and political picture could, Guido is betting, look very different. Don’t bet against it.

*In 1979 unemployment was 1.4m, in 2007 unemployment is 1.7m, Source: Unemployment ONS Labour Force Survey.

Romsey Redhead Silent on Merial

Sandra Gidley MP, AKA the Romsey Redhead and Big Pharma’s best friend in parliament, was paid for by Sanofi Aventis to go to Paris and Budapest last year on a junket.

They are one of the co-owners of Merial, the company suspected of being the source of the Foot and Mouth outbreak in Guildford. Guildford is all of 60 miles away from her constituency. No word from her about the outbreak as yet…

Blogs Drove Iraqi Interpreters Issue on to Agenda

The left-wing blogosphere has scored a rare victory. Taking time out from pledging not to buy Alastair Campbell’s book, obssessing about Guido being a baby-eating Nazi and Iain Dale being a Tory media-tart, they actually did something productive.

They drove the disgraceful treatment (by the government) of Iraqi military interpreters up the political agenda. It was not an exclusively left-wing blogosphere affair, on the right Donal Blaney isn’t happy about their treatment. He is also not happy about the government “posturing” over non-British citizens locked up in Gitmo. Can’t say that Guido agrees with him on that. British governments should protest violations of human rights wherever they occur. Would it be “posturing” to call for the release of Chinese political prisoners?

UPDATE : Thursday morning the Tories are calling for action. Doc Fox says the UK has a clear moral duty to protect the interpreters, William Hague says it is a matter of honour, and Damian Green is protesting at the official bureaucracy surrounding their case.

Basra : British Defeat Bodes Badly for Afghanistan

Guido takes no pleasure in reporting this, but it seems to be going unsaid in the British press. British forces are painted, particularly by broadcasters, as having achieved a measure of success in Basra due to superior British peace-keeping techniques honed in Northern Ireland.

The truth is very different. To quote from a report by the ICG;

Three major Shiite political groups are locked in a bloody conflict that has left the city in the hands of militias and criminal gangs, whose control extends to municipal offices and neighborhood streets. The city is plagued by “the systematic misuse of official institutions, political assassinations, tribal vendettas, neighborhood vigilantism and enforcement of social mores, together with the rise of criminal mafias that increasingly intermingle with political actors,” a recent report by the International Crisis Group said.

The Washington Post reported a senior U.S. intelligence official yesterday saying that “The British have basically been defeated in the south”.

The article went on to say that British forces

… are abandoning their former headquarters at Basra Palace, where a recent official visitor from London described them as “surrounded like cowboys and Indians” by militia fighters. An airport base outside the city, where a regional U.S. Embassy office and Britain’s remaining 5,500 troops are barricaded behind building-high sandbags, has been attacked with mortars or rockets nearly 600 times over the past four months.

In May Blair visited the Basra HQ and came under mortar attack – not a sign of pacification.

The head of the armed forces, Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, told the BBC that success depends “upon what your interpretation of the mission was in the first place… I’m afraid people had, in many instances, unrealistic aspirations for Iraq, and for the south of Iraq.” The reality is that once Britsh forces exit Basra the fighting will escalate into a full-scale civil war. Mission failure.

This begs the question – what now is the plan in Afghanistan? They are a people who fought the Red Army and won. The Soviets were brutal and were still defeated. Is NATO going to match and exceed that brutality in pursuit of “victory”? Afghanistan should be monitored closely and elements that present a clear and present external danger should be eliminated. It is not the job of NATO to impose Western values by force as Rome’s Imperial Armies once imposed Roman law.

Rich & Mark’s Monday Morning View

Friday Caption Contest (Ainsworth Edition)

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