Flashback: Clegg Tells LibDems How It Is

There are those that suggest Clegg has “sold out” or “betrayed” the LibDems and some lazy elements of the media are attempting to play this angle up. In light of his keynote speech this afternoon, Guido thought he would rewind to last year.

Which deceitful, treacherous rogue said in 2009 “bold and even “savage” cuts in government spending will be necessary to bring the public deficit down after the next election”? It’s not as if he didn’t warn his party what was coming…

Monday Morning Cartoon

Nervousness in David Miliband’s Camp

After reading endless tips from Mike Smithson on PoliticalBetting.com to back Ed Miliband, Guido switched his bets on Friday. David Miliband’s implied probability of victory had already dropped from 75% to 65% by the time Guido shifted his money from one brother to the other. He is at the time of writing given a 59% chance of winning the leadership (40% for Ed Miliband). Given it is too close to call that could narrow to 50% / 50% soon. Both camps are of course claiming their internal polling numbers point to victory.

In the humiliation stakes punters reckon that despite Guido’s never-ending support, Ed Balls is still the favourite to to be eliminated in the first round. His odds on avoiding humiliation have improved, dropping from a 62% certainty down to a still not good 41%, with Diane Abbott on 35% and Burnham given 30% a chance of going out first. If you are reading this Sally Bercow, and still think Balls is going to win the leadership, a £5 bet will win you £1000.

Clegg : I’m No Leftie

Part of the reason for the current vitriol from the Labour Party towards the LibDems is that they took it for granted that the LibDems were a party of the left. As patronising as it was wrong.

On election night Guido was on ITN with Will Straw, off screen when it became clear there would be no overall majority, we argued for most of the night about what might happen. Straw basically thought Guido was bonkers to believe that a Liberal – Conservative Change Coalition was not only desirable, but that it was really possible. Will could not conceive of it happening, the subsequent widespread shock on the left when it did happen perhaps explains why the Labour Party is so scornful of the LibDems.

Guido always suspected the ex-Cambridge University Conservative Association member and son of a merchant banker might not be so keen on making common cause with Ed Balls and Gordon Brown. The polls might not support this view today, but that collective mis-judgement by Labour may cost them their second party status in the end.

Saturday Seven Up

7upPapal stories were the most popular of the week, and also the most divisive, abuse and praise was heaped on Guido, much of the praise in Latin. All contributed to a mere 68,807 readers viewing 307,415 pages over the last seven days. Here are the seven most popular stories (in order of popularity) that you might have missed:

You’re either in front of Guido, or you are behind…

Top 10 Most Popular Fringe Events at LibDem Conference

Courtesy of the FringeList.com service, based on users who have registered to receive free SMS text message reminders to attend events, the top 10 most popular events on the fringe are in order:

  1. Yes to reform! Winning the battle
  2. Blog Of The Year Awards
  3. Lessons for future campaigning from the 2010 election
  4. LibDemVoice Fringe
  5. Coalition, Cuts and Conservatives: an attractive agenda for the Lib Dems?
  6. Cable on cuts: the economics of ‘progressive austerity’
  7. Entering the Coalition: our duty or our demise?
  8. The Future of Higher Education Funding
  9. Is the Lib-Lab coalition gone forever?
  10. The Guardian Debate

Top 50 LibDem fringe events according to registrations can be found by clicking on libdem.fringelist.com/popular. You can even find out which events Guido will be attending here.

Which way is Liverpool?

Leaderless Labour and Tea Parties Prosper at Polls

Guido is intrigued at how the U.S. Tea Party and the Labour Party can prosper at the polls without a leader. Arguably the lack of a Labour leader for the coalition to attack makes them less vunerable to the likely onslaught that is to come – the next leader of the Labour party will have his record in government thrown in his face – hard.

The Tea Party in the U.S. is consciously leaderless, they talk about being a “Starfish organisation”, drawing on some of the ideas in the bestselling book The Starfish and the Spider: The Unstoppable Power of Leaderless Organizations.

Some on the left see the Tea Party as a right-wing version of MoveOn.Org, the Soros-funded grassroots mobilisation campaign to support left-wing Democrats. Having met a few Tea Partiers, Guido thinks they are more about changing the political culture back from “Republicrat tax and spend”, to the limited government imagined by the founding fathers of the U.S. constitution. Jonathan Rauch has filmed this snippet on the organisational structure for the National Journal:

Vodpod videos no longer available.

Rauch has done a serious investigation into the Tea Party that goes beyond the hysteria (“they’re rednecks!”) and looks at how they organise – the Monday night conference calls, the Ning online social network and the federated sister organisations. The Tea Partiers have very quickly put the fear of voters into the Republican Party.

Could it happen here? If the Coalition fails on the economy, if the VAT hike hits the consumer hard, the economy double dips, inflation and middle-class unemployment rises, you never know.  The Coalition is offering no prospect of tax cuts, people may not be willing to accept a permanently high-tax culture…

Friday Caption Competition (PoJo Edition)

BBC Strikers Plan to Disrupt Tory Coverage

Frankly if the BBC unions want to strike during the Conservative Party conference does it matter? ITN and Sky will still be there.

Gaby Hinsliff asks why Tories who complain about left-wing bias should be bothered. They shouldn’t. The BBC […]

+ READ MORE +

Prezza Claims Police Violated His Human Rights

John Prescott has launched a claim for judicial review of the police on the grounds that they violated his human rights. If you think he is doing his usual grandstanding you are right. The police didn’t violate his human rights […]

+ READ MORE +

Religious Reporting Guardian Style

Guido may have suggested yesterday that the Guardian editorial team was full of ill-informed atheist bigots, lacking in respect for alternative belief systems as well as being intolerant of those who have faith and believe in God. Obviously this is […]

+ READ MORE +

How to Choose Between the Milibands

Punters still make David Miliband the favourite to win, despite increasingly boisterous noises from little brother Ed. Guido’s source in the Mili-D camp reckons they’re just about there…[…]

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Preston Council leader Peter Rankin explains rising anti-Semitism…

“You need to think why this anti-semitism is getting worse. It’s because of the actions of the IDF shelling schools and hospitals and killing and maiming thousands of men, women and children.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

PMQS SKETCH: Corbyn Withstands Heavy Shelling PMQS SKETCH: Corbyn Withstands Heavy Shelling
DECC: Please Think Before You Print DECC: Please Think Before You Print
TOP TORY COPPER IN MILF PORN SHOCKER TOP TORY COPPER IN MILF PORN SHOCKER
SHAPPS THROWS FELDMAN UNDER THE BATTLE BUS SHAPPS THROWS FELDMAN UNDER THE BATTLE BUS
CORBYN REFUSES TO WITHDRAW HAMAS “FRIENDS” COMMENT 4 TIMES CORBYN REFUSES TO WITHDRAW HAMAS “FRIENDS” COMMENT 4 TIMES
SADIQ: “I’M SORRY” FOR RACIAL SLUR AGAINST MODERATE MUSLIMS SADIQ: “I’M SORRY” FOR RACIAL SLUR AGAINST MODERATE MUSLIMS
TWO MORE LABOUR COUNCILLORS RANTED ABOUT “JEWS” TWO MORE LABOUR COUNCILLORS RANTED ABOUT “JEWS”
CRUZ QUITS, HITS WIFE CRUZ QUITS, HITS WIFE
KHAN CALLED MODERATE MUSLIMS “UNCLE TOMS” ON IRANIAN STATE TV KHAN CALLED MODERATE MUSLIMS “UNCLE TOMS” ON IRANIAN STATE TV
NAZ SHAH RESIGNS FROM HOME AFFAIRS SELECT COMMITTEE NAZ SHAH RESIGNS FROM HOME AFFAIRS SELECT COMMITTEE
HAMAS DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM CORBYN HAMAS DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM CORBYN
LABOUR COUNCILLOR DEFENDS COMPARING JEWS TO HITLER LABOUR COUNCILLOR DEFENDS COMPARING JEWS TO HITLER
TOP CORBYNISTA MP TWEETED ABOUT PUTTING ISRAEL IN MID-WEST OF AMERICA TOP CORBYNISTA MP TWEETED ABOUT PUTTING ISRAEL IN MID-WEST OF AMERICA
GOVE TOPS CONHOME POLL AGAIN GOVE TOPS CONHOME POLL AGAIN
UBER, BUT FOR BREXIT UBER, BUT FOR BREXIT
LABOUR’S BANK HOLIDAY TIMELINE LABOUR’S BANK HOLIDAY TIMELINE
THIRD LABOUR COUNCILLOR SUSPENDED OVER “HITLER” TWEET THIRD LABOUR COUNCILLOR SUSPENDED OVER “HITLER” TWEET
LABOUR COUNCILLOR: ISRAEL BEHIND ISIS, “ZIONIST JEWS ARE A DISGRACE TO HUMANITY” LABOUR COUNCILLOR: ISRAEL BEHIND ISIS, “ZIONIST JEWS ARE A DISGRACE TO HUMANITY”
ANOTHER LABOUR POLITICIAN WANTS TO “RELOCATE” JEWS TO AMERICA ANOTHER LABOUR POLITICIAN WANTS TO “RELOCATE” JEWS TO AMERICA
DIANE ABBOTT CAR CRASH: ANTI-SEMITISM A “SMEAR” DIANE ABBOTT CAR CRASH: ANTI-SEMITISM A “SMEAR”
KHAN ALLY: “ISRAEL IS A TERRORIST STATE LIKE ISIS” KHAN ALLY: “ISRAEL IS A TERRORIST STATE LIKE ISIS”
DIANE ABBOTT DEFENDS NAZ SHAH, SAYS ANTI-SEMITISM ISN’T A PROBLEM FOR LABOUR DIANE ABBOTT DEFENDS NAZ SHAH, SAYS ANTI-SEMITISM ISN’T A PROBLEM FOR LABOUR
Fiorina Drops Fiorina Drops
£500,000 EXPENSES FRAUDSTER MEP JAILED £500,000 EXPENSES FRAUDSTER MEP JAILED
SEUMAS MILNE PRAISES HAMAS SEUMAS MILNE PRAISES HAMAS
ALLEGED GRANNY BASHER MP IN COURT TODAY ALLEGED GRANNY BASHER MP IN COURT TODAY
CORBYN AGREES BBC ARE “ZIONIST LIARS” CORBYN AGREES BBC ARE “ZIONIST LIARS”
LABOUR IN CRISIS LABOUR IN CRISIS
KHAN ON KEN, KEN ON KHAN KHAN ON KEN, KEN ON KHAN
CORBYN’S CALLAGHAN MOMENT CORBYN’S CALLAGHAN MOMENT