Kerry's Cowan Cover-up

The Labour Party were spinning earlier that as soon as the allegations about their disgraced PPC John Cowan emerged he was suspended: ‘The allegations that came to light after nominations closed are totally unacceptable and well below what the party expects of our candidates.”

Came to light “after nominations closed“?  That is just not true.

Social media guru and Twitter Tsar Kerry McCarthy, a Labour MP no less, was tipped off about Cowan’s dodgy online behaviour over three months ago.  Here is the tip-off email (verbatim):

From: █████ █████ <████████████@gmail.com>
Date: 12 February 2010 21:20
Subject: Private and Confidential and off the record
To: mccarthyk@parliament.uk

Dear Kerry,

My name is █████ █████ and I work in the motorsports industry. I represent drivers, teams, and component suppliers in the motorsport industry. I believe you like a couple of friends have suffered from being stalked by a certain John Cowan. Both the girls I know that I know are racing drivers who raced from an early age. I became aware of ████’s problems with Cowan when we were at Brands Hatch for a race. ████ had run out of finances and had hired her car to a driver who I was coaching. Her father was engineering the car. All was fine until I noticed that ████ and her Dad looked a bit woried. When I enquired what was wrong; her father pointed out John Cowan standing by the car and told me of the trouble that ████ had receiving lude emails. I asked Cowan to leave and not bother ████ or my driver again.

Until this was mentioned I had just assumed he was a ‘harmless’ idiot that lived in a dreamworld. I am afraid motor racing attracts these type of fools as does politics. Since then I have found out ████ is not the only female racing driver that has had problems with Cowan. And now I am reliably informed that you yourself have had problems with this man.

I am now horrified to find out that he is standing for Parliament in South Cambridgeshire and I am supprised he was even picked as a candidate with a false CV!

It has now been bought to our attention you have been pestered by this man; I don’t believe in this age that he should be anywhere near public office. Can he be removed as candidate before he can do any real damage?

I llok forward to your reply.

regards

█████ █████

07███ ██████

So what did Kerry McCarthy do next…

Tories Panic, City Relaxes

George Osborne this afternoon is trying to convince us that a hung parliament will mean higher interest rates as investors panic and the gilt market plunges.   Guido begs to differ, arguing that if on May 7 the Tories went into a Change Coalition with the LibDems – the only party with a leader that admits we need “savage spending cuts”, when the Tories and Labour are being disingenuous in pretending otherwise – the City wouldn’t have a problem.

The hard evidence is clear; since the prospects of a hung parliament jumped after the first TV debate (the bookies now make it an odds on 64% probability) both the pound and the gilt market have rallied. Why?  Well the City was worried about Labour being returned and kamikaze economics being implemented by Chancellor Balls.  A Lib-Con “Change Coalition government with both parties committed to public spending cuts and rapid deficit reduction will actually cheer the City.  Here’s the evidence so far:

The left hand chart is the probability of a hung parliament based on gambler’s bets, the middle chart is the gilt futures price and the right hand chart is the pound against the dollar.    Osborne just quoted a number of  investment banking analyst’s old notes, RBS capital markets analysis this morning concurs with Guido’s analysis:

Weekend press good for Gilts: a) talking up the Liberal Democrats right wing credentials and how they form more coalitions with Conservatives than Labour in councils, so allegedly not that Budget-negative/sclerosis if Con-Lib coalition, which is most likely outcome at this moment according to pollsters; b) polls shift 1-2% back to where they were pre-debates.

Osborne needs to switch on his Bloomberg terminal for a reality check, gilts are now yielding less than 4%, City confidence has risen as Labour’s polling figures have fallen…

Quote of the Day

Tom Newton Dunn, political editor of the Sun, apparently said…

“It is my job to see that Cameron f***ing well gets into Downing Street”

The Brown Nixon Elvis Conspiracy Theory Competition

Guido has been racking his brain for an explanation into the thinking behind the Elvis support act for Gordon.  Here are my top conspiracy theories:

  1. Gordon is living out a Richard Nixon fantasy, he seems himself as a man of substance and policy, like Nixon, facing defeat at the hands of more photogenic and televisual opponents, with Clegg and Cameron playing the role of Kennedy.  So since Nixon and Presley were mates…
  2. Benjamin Wegg-Prosser has a £500 bet with Mandelson on who can succeed in making Gordon look the most ridiculous during the campaign.  Still 10 days to go so Mandelson is not paying up just yet.
  3. Alastair Campbell is back on the bottle and thought it was a good idea late one night.  He did big up the whole cringe-making event.
  4. Wee Dougie Alexander produced some focus group data that showed Elvis was still king in some key demographics, old people, people without iPods, C1, D1 hardworking families. Wee Dougie has now defected to the Miliband camp…
  5. Michael Jackson was unavailable.  He is after all a well known kids entertainer…

Put your theory in the comments please, best theory wins a copy of  The Big Red Book of New Labour Sleaze, competition closes midnight.

Second Labour Candidate Sacked

Former “glamour model” John Cowan has become the second Labour Party parliamentary candidate to be sacked after their online postings were revealed. John Cowan, who was expelled from the Liberal Democrats after sending sexually explicit messages to Labour’s Kerry McCarthy, then tried to join the Tories and eventually ended up as the Labour PPC for South East Cambridgeshire.

Cowan’s racist and sexual rantings have been doing the blog rounds for a week or so and finally ended up in yesterday’s Telegraph.  As nominations have closed there can’t now be a Labour candidate in the race. It will be interesting to see what boost this gives to the Liberal Democrat vote in this safe Tory seat.

Senior Buckingham Tory Comes Out for Farage

Grassroots Conservative activists in Buckingham are mostly either staying at home, voting for Farage or in some cases campaigning for him. Sir Nicholas Bonsor, a Deputy Lieutenant of Buckinghamshire and a former Conservative MP, will be one of those canvassing for UKIP’s Nigel Farage.  UKIP say it is the first crack to open publicly in the Buckingham Constituency Association.

Disenfranchised Tories in the constituency are quietly putting their weight behind UKIP – Sir Nicholas is a patron of the Buckingham Conservative Association and a former foreign office minister.  Bercow’s disloyalty and the behaviour of his wife infuriates local party members. Bonsor is a big Chihuahua

UPDATE : Punters have marked up Farage’s chances of taking the seat from 25% to 35% this morning.  Farage raised £3,000 over the weekend from online donations.

10 Days to Destroy the Labour Party

As the Tories shift resources towards Labour seats and the Labour Party vote leaves the building with Elvis, the tantalising prospect of a Labour Party wipe out seems possible.  Labour’s messages seem calibrated only to appeal only to their core activist vote and their client vote dependent on welfare transfers.  Middle-England is not being wooed at all.  Consequently Labour is now polling at levels last seen under Michael Foot.  Has anyone else noticed that Tony Blair is supposedly unable to campaign because he is still stuck overseas due to volcanic ash.  Nothing to do with not wanting to be tainted with a loser?

Rich & Mark's Monday Morning View

Quote of the Day

Nick Clegg wrote in The Liberal Moment last year…

“Liberal Democrats have opposed Labour’s centralised model because it jars with our core beliefs… I believe Labour’s basic approach to governance – to social, political, economic and environmental progress is fundamentally flawed”.

Labour Say Now Want Serious Policy Focus

Labour have released the draft of a letter to broadcasters calling for a greater policy focus in the final days of the campaign – they complain that the other parties have refused to sign it. There is a good reason for that, their copy was signed by Elvis.

Gordon is Leaving the Building (Soon)

[vodpod id=Video.3488863&w=480&h=320&fv=videoId%3D79949830001%26amp%3BplayerID%3D69900095001%26amp%3Bdomain%3Dembed%26amp%3BdynamicStreaming%3Dtrue]

Do you think Mandy and Bad Al Campbell are just taking the piss out of Gordon now? “Yeah, it’ll be great, the headlines will be all ‘Gordon’s comeback tour’ like Elvis in Vegas!” It is a farewell tour, isn’t it…

Getting Real : The Change Coalition (Part II)

A few weeks ago Guido asked a CCHQ insider privy to strategy “What is the negotiating strategy with the LibDems?  Is it true Matthew Hancock is in charge of the strategy?” He laughed “the joke of the negotiation strategy is that there isn’t one. If we lose narrowly we’ll leave it up to Clegg to either support Labour or stand alone.  Go on to fight a second election and hope to win more comfortably.”

What, Guido asked, if the differential is big? “Don’t be f***ing stupid.”

That LibDem negotiation strategy might be a higher priority nowadays. Hancock is the Tory PPC for West Suffolk and formerly George Osborne’s chief-of-staff, Cleggmania means the problem now has the attention of those above his pay grade.  Last Sunday Guido sketched out a potential May 7 scenario, Tim Montgomerie was horrified, the feedback Guido got was more mixed – mostly it was sceptical based on contact with the LibDem grassroots.  Left Foot Forward editor Will Straw mirrored Tim Montgomerie, telling Guido in Dimbley’s green room that it was just not going to happen, the LibDems were “progressives”. Well that is a pretty meaningless term, it has even been borrowed by the Cameroons for their agenda.  The confusion in the ranks of Labour and Tory true believers is based on the experience of contact with Libdem activists, many of whom are way to the left of Blairites.  The parliamentary party is not by and large left wing – it is centrist.

Clegg and the people around him are not of the left, Vince Cable is, but he is the exception.  The Orange bookers and the Cameroons share key liberal ideological tenets – localism, decentralisation, transparency and a preference for market based solutions.  On the need for “savage cuts” in government spending, accelerated deficit reduction and NHS reform the LibDems have been more honest than the Tories.  Most Tories can live with LibDem manifesto commitments on tax (apart from the enterprise killing capital gains hike). They are singing from the same fiscal policy hymn-sheet.

There are real areas of discordance, in particular defence and foreign policy.  Here the LibDems betray their liberal radicalism, Clegg is desperately trying to square grassroots weirdie-beardie antipathy to anything nuclear with being in the government of a UN security council member and nuclear power.  Letting the Tories have primacy on defence and foreign policy and the LibDems have primacy on home affairs, localism and open government is the most likely compromise. It would also broadly reflect the electorate’s wishes.

We have come a long way in the last 7 days, the well connected chronicler of the Cameroons Matthew D’Ancona now says get real it is on the cards, Cameron tells the Observer the door is open and One of the keys is the people who are liberal with a small L, Clegg tells the Sunday Times that “You can’t have Gordon Brown squatting in No 10”, Mandelson warns voters that flirtation with Clegg might lead to a Cameroon marriage.  The public  on the other hand always love a big wedding.  The bookies make a hung parliament the strong favourite outcome with a 60% probability and give the Tories only a 37% chance of forming a majority governmentChange is definitely coming and it will probably be in the form of a coalition…

See also : The Change Coalition

#TV10 Tactical Voting Will Kick Balls Out

Ed Balls has a notional majority of 9,000 in his newly created Morley & Outwood seat. That should be taken with a pinch of salt, it is a new seat created after boundary changes, in local council elections over the last 2 years Labour has polled badly, even coming fourth on occasion.

With Labour nationally polling in third place the swing against Labour means Balls’ notional lead is likely to be negligible, his Tory opponent Antony Calvert is fighting an energetic campaign, he’s raised money online for his campaign and he has caught the imagination of many with his “Balls Moment” advert. George Osborne has decided that even though Morley and Outwood wasn’t even on the Tory’s 200 target seats list, that it is now a priority.  In an email to hundreds of thousands of supporters today Osborne says

Labour’s collapse has opened up new opportunities for us that we will be making the most of in the week ahead. We are expanding our battleground against Labour and now have a good chance of winning many more seats where they are haemorrhaging votes, including Ed Balls’s seat in Morley & Outwood.

Last week Guido suggested that Tories in Islington South should vote for the LibDem to oust the sitting Labour MP, this week Guido is urging LibDem voters who want to wipe the smug smile off Ed Balls’ face to lend their vote to the Tory candidate. The LibDem can’t win, Antony Calvert can. It will be the most memorable moment of election night, just as in 1997 when Portillo was defeated. Are you up for a “Balls Moment”?

UPDATE : Punters are putting their money on Calvert to take the seat, he is now the favourite to win.

Saturday Seven Up

7upIf you were not one of the 77,080 visitors viewing 504,990 pages over the last seven days, here are the seven most popular stories (in order of popularity) that you missed:

You’re either in front of Guido, or you are behind…

Last Night's Debate in 60 Seconds

[vodpod id=Video.3480038&w=480&h=395&fv=videoId%3D79742348001%26amp%3BplayerID%3D69900095001%26amp%3Bdomain%3Dembed%26amp%3BdynamicStreaming%3Dtrue]

Are You a Tory Chihuahua?

Nigel Farage is up against John Bercow, the Speaker of the House of Commons, in Buckingham. He is appealing for funds to support his campaign online and he is also running fundraising advertising in the arch-Tory magazine the Spectator.

Buckingham is of course a rock solid Tory seat held by an expense fiddling, mortgage flipping member of parliament.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Heidi Alexander sums up Labour’s approach to aspiration:

“Babies grow up to become taxpayers.”

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Baroness Scotland Refuses to Answer Corruption Questions Baroness Scotland Refuses to Answer Corruption Questions
Pictured: Corbyn Hangs Out with Israel Hater Pictured: Corbyn Hangs Out with Israel Hater
Corbyn’s Celeb Mate: Stab Tory MPs for a Laugh Corbyn’s Celeb Mate: Stab Tory MPs for a Laugh
Phil Shiner Banged to Rights Phil Shiner Banged to Rights
Core Labour Vote There For UKIP’s Taking Core Labour Vote There For UKIP’s Taking
Lib-Green Pact Plot Leaked Lib-Green Pact Plot Leaked
Tories Braced for Charges Over South Thanet Tories Braced for Charges Over South Thanet
Max Fine for Law Breaking Lib Dems Max Fine for Law Breaking Lib Dems
TROT SUPER-FACTION ORGANISING MOMENTUM TAKEOVER TROT SUPER-FACTION ORGANISING MOMENTUM TAKEOVER
Santa Paws: Phil Hammond’s Christmas Card Santa Paws: Phil Hammond’s Christmas Card
Government Values Guardian Readers Most Highly Government Values Guardian Readers Most Highly
Treasury Implements Amy Lame Tax Treasury Implements Amy Lame Tax
Fidel’s Final Push Fidel’s Final Push
Newmark Back Helping Women2Win Newmark Back Helping Women2Win
BoJo Ho Ho! Christmas Returns to FCO BoJo Ho Ho! Christmas Returns to FCO
Naz Shah Attends Extremist-Linked Event Naz Shah Attends Extremist-Linked Event
HEIDI ALLEN IN MAYORAL ROW HEIDI ALLEN IN MAYORAL ROW
Renzi Loses Referendum – Resigns Renzi Loses Referendum – Resigns
WATCH: Clegg Gets Brillo’d WATCH: Clegg Gets Brillo’d