Corbyn Questions Osborne’s Figures

Pretend Remain campaigner Jeremy Corbyn sees through Osborne’s £4,300 spin:

“I’m not sure where he gets the figure from… I want to hear where he gets them from”

The top headline on BBC News this evening is “Treasury’s EU exit forecast sparks row”. This could have gone better for the Chancellor…

Dodgy Predictions: Osborne’s Equations from Long Discredited Model

Treasury Gravity Model

Lobby journalists and MPs have reacted with bewilderment at the Treasury’s use of a number of complex mathematical equations to underpin their argument for Brexit. This much vaunted analysis was based on a “gravity model”, a device used to model “trade flows between two countries as a function of economic variables such as GDP, geographic..and cultural variables”.

Well, the Treasury’s gravity model has been discounted numerous times for its use in predicting the impact that large scale economic changes will have on the economy. In 2005 Patrick Minford, Vidya Mahambare and Eric Nowell first looked at how useful gravity models were in predicting the effects of Brexit. Their conclusion was that they were far too simplistic:

“The gravity model may work numerically, and be more accurate in detail, for quite general changes in conditions, like a general drop in transport costs, mirroring globalisation, which is what Costinot and Rodiguez-Clare use it for. The problem with using it for a shock to trade structure like the UK leaving a customs union is that the responses will certainly not be the same as for a general globalisation shock; indeed such a shock changes the UK’s internal structure substantially, in a way not assumed in a gravity model.”

Essentially, the gravity model can’t take into account the numerous complexities that would arise in the event of Brexit. These sentiments are reiterated by Alan Deardorff, Professor of International Economics at the University of Michigan. Deardforff remarks in this paper on gravity models, that their sheer scope mean their “use for empirical tests of any of them is suspect”. So it looks like Osborne’s been too clever by half. His model has been long discredited. You can’t use a few trade equations to predict the future, they are only good for baffling hacks…

Tory MPs’ Verdict on Osborne

Boris: “The Treasury has not been totally successful in all its economic forecasts, let’s be honest.”

Peter Bone: “Treasury’s economic predictions are speculative at best, deceitful at worst”

The response of the Tory benches to the Chancellor’s speech this morning…

Diane: Sadiq is “Jeremy Corbyn’s Man”

Well done Diane Abbott for reading out the Zac campaign’s main attack line at a People’s Assembly rally this weekend:

“It’s important that in May we vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s man to be Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan.”

The exact same phrase as can be found on Tory attack posters:

Slow clap.

Injunction to Be Lifted Pending Appeal

elton

The injunction has been lifted but the names can not yet be published pending appeal. The gagging order remains in place until Wednesday 1pm…

UPDATE: The judge adds:

“The court should not make orders which are ineffective. It is inappropriate for the court to ban people from saying that which is common knowledge. Knowledge of the relevant matters is now so widespread that confidentiality has probably been lost.”

Read Lord Justice Jackson on the futility of injunctions here.

YouGov: Majority Know Celebrity Threesome Identity

The decision on whether the celebrity threesome injunction is to be lifted will be announced at 12:30pm. This morning YouGov found 55% of the 2,000 plus polled now know the identities of those involved. Not to mention anyone and everyone in the US, Canada, Scotland, Sweden and China. The gagging order has been rendered meaningless…

Treasury’s Case For Remain in 8 Equations

Osborne and Amber Rudd have directly challenged Boris to respond to the Treasury’s case for Remain. Here it is:

7

Pray for the Lobby journalists currently trying to decipher the document. The Treasury goes for the ‘Baffle ’em with BS’ approach…

Zac’s Campaign Song

In English, Hindi, Urdu, Punjabi, Chinese and Bangla it says: “Vote for Zac”.

Maybe it’s because ‘es a Londoner…

Rich’s Monday Morning View

injunction+judge[…]

+ READ MORE +

Sunday Selection

SNDAY copy

BEST OF SEEN ELSEWHERE 

[…]

+ READ MORE +

Campaign Report: Day 2

Leave message: Spend the £350 million we send to EU on the NHS

Remain message: Establishment and international organisations all say stay in. Talk to your gran.

Cut through: Boris all channels.

Leave social media count: 322,905 likes, 34,897 followers.[…]

+ READ MORE +



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