As Hillary Clinton prepares to woo America at the Democratic Convention, Trump is 5% ahead in a CNN national poll and on a state-by-state forecast basis according to Nate Silver.

This is the picture now. Hillary has the advantage that most of the press and broadcast networks will be for her and despite boos at the convention from Bernie supporters – after he sold out and backed her – she will get 90% of her party’s activist support. Something is changing though and Trump’s cultural conservatism and protectionist “America First” positioning is appealing to blue collar Democrats. Left-wing activist Michael Moore reckons Trump is going to win because he connects with Americans in a way cold, calculating, “made in DC” Hillary never will. Trump has surprised all the pundits so far…