Swing to Status Quo Scenario

Leavers are optimistic, Brexiteering Tory MPs really do believe they can do it, yet Remainers still think they’ll win. Neck and neck polls are giving both sides hope. Peter Kellner – a Europhile Labour supporting pollster  – has written a piece which tugs at a nagging doubt for Guido. The tendency of referendums in Britain to swing towards the status quo in the final days…

referendum-swings

Kellner explains away the exception, the 1997 Scottish referendum in favour of devolution as a mechanism for ratifying a national consensus, not a means of resolving a major national dispute. Hmmm… 

Kellner doesn’t look at international referendums that have favoured change: gay marriage in Ireland, legalising marijuana in various US states. In these cases he could argue that they were again ratifying a consensus. There is obviously no UK consensus on the merits of the EU. There is however a near national consensus on the need to control immigration…




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

European Parliament President Martin Schulz…

“I consider it to be very possible that the Brits will know exactly what they want at the start of negotiations, but that Europe still won’t be able to speak with a single voice…”

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Jackie Walkercaust Jackie Walkercaust
I SCHEMED A SCHEME I SCHEMED A SCHEME
Watch Glitter Balls Watch Glitter Balls
Did Boris Really Want Brexit? Did Boris Really Want Brexit?
Ken Interviewed, Doesn’t Mention Hitler Ken Interviewed, Doesn’t Mention Hitler
Chuka’s Single Market flip-flop Chuka’s Single Market flip-flop
LABOUR HQ PURGE FEARS LABOUR HQ PURGE FEARS
Carter Ruck Deleting Brooks Newmark Sext Pics Carter Ruck Deleting Brooks Newmark Sext Pics
Mandelson Aide Funding Owen Smith Mandelson Aide Funding Owen Smith
OILY WANTED CORBYN TO GO ON OILY WANTED CORBYN TO GO ON
Hinkley: Forseeable Financial Fiasco Hinkley: Forseeable Financial Fiasco
Baroness Shami(less) Baroness Shami(less)
Just How Totes Posh Is Stella Creasy? Just How Totes Posh Is Stella Creasy?
Thornberry “Sky Sexism” Meltdown Thornberry “Sky Sexism” Meltdown
WATCH HILLARY DROP WATCH HILLARY DROP
PMQs Sketch PMQs Sketch
Vaz Broke Law Vaz Broke Law
Cancel Hinkley Cancel Hinkley
Vaz On Front Pages Vaz On Front Pages
71% OF ECONOMISTS WILL BE PROVED WRONG ABOUT BREXIT 71% OF ECONOMISTS WILL BE PROVED WRONG ABOUT BREXIT