Yesterday global stock markets passed the technical point where the world is defined as being in a global bear market. It is likely that problems in financial markets will soon be reflected in the real economy, property transaction volumes are already tailing off in a way that suggests we are near to the top of a property bubble. George Osborne promised to fix the roof when the sun was shining, as the moment of truth arrives, has he?
The stand out success of the British economy has been job creation and falling unemployment. Welfare reform driving people back to work and flexible labour markets largely explain that phenomena. The public finances have not been re-balanced, according to the IMF the UK deficit gap is the worst in the G7 and among the worst in Europe. Worse than even Greece.
Osborne has missed every single deficit target he has set himself. He asked us to judge him on how well he tackled the deficit, well he missed his balanced budget target for 2015, he’ll miss his new adjusted target for 2016 and his overall balanced budget target for 2020. If the global economy derails the likely knock on effect will mean even higher deficits.
Despite all this Osborne indulges in squandermania, allowing him to wander the country in hi-viz and hard hats for photo opportunities that will be the pictorial backdrop for his premiership campaign. There are it is famously said two types of Chancellor; those that get out in time and those that don’t. Unfortunately for George, time has run out…