August 28th, 2014

UKIP Academic: “Dead Cert” for a Carswell Win

DC-UKIPUKIP’s specialist academic Matthew Goodwin tells Guido that Clacton is a “dead cert” for the party and that he had briefed Douglas Carswell about this before he made his decision to quit. He claims that the seat is the most ‘kippy in the country. Intriguingly Goodwin confirmed he had briefed the Parliamentary Conservative Party about where UKIP were the biggest threat and Carswell had been at that presentation. Along with many others.

When Guido asked Farage whether there were any more Tory MPs in the pipeline he refused to say: “You buy the chap one pint and he asks for a second.”


  1. 1
    The Daily Telegraph says:

    Nothing to see, move along…

  2. 2

    Carswell has done the right thing and should win. This is excellent news.

    Meanwhile, the anti-m’igrant rhetoric that is flying around the front pages needs to be qualified carefully:

    In P’oland this is being seen as an attack on EU m’igrants, and them specifically.

    They perceive this as a repeat of September 1939, and the subsequent B’ritish ‘sale’ of P’oland to S’talin.

    If h’istory is not to repeat a strong U’K-P’oland alliance is needed.

    On the other side of the fence they are hearing talk of 2-Tier N’ATO from G’ermany, as M’erkel seems hell bent on talking NATO out of putting permanent bases in the East E’uropean alliance members territory.

    This is an important issue that UKIP should consider as many in the old eastern bloc countries do regard UK as a leading nation, and P’oland is an special case due to history.

    Vote UKIP :-D

  3. 3
    Labour are Monsters says:

    Hannan @UKIP…?

    Hannan to lead UKIP when Nige steps down..?

    How good would that be..?

  4. 4
    Maggie forever says:

    At last, someone with balls.

  5. 5
    Ukip are finished! says:

    This will be another Newark and really UKIP will be proven to be a dead great awk pretty quickly!

    My predictions are usually excellent and I predict a Tory majority of 20 next year. People are too sensible in this country at this crucial time to do anything else. We need another 5 years of Cameron!

  6. 6
    Lt Col Kilgore says:

    I love the smell of UKIP in the morning.

  7. 7
    Anonymong says:

    Of course they’re right, deporting people falsely claiming benefits is right up there with Katyn.

  8. 8
    Zig Zag says:

    People are seething, chum.

    Anything could happen at the next election.

  9. 9
    Certifiable says:

    Are you being sarcastic – We need another 5 years of Cameron!

    If you really mean that then you need to check yourself in pretty quick – unless you are a ginger beer of course?

  10. 10
    Deport Nick Clegg says:

    “Many in the old eastern bloc countries do regard UK as a leading nation cash cow.”

    Fixed it for you. :-)

  11. 11
    Taxpayer says:

    I don’t think I could cope with another 5 years of Cameron’s punitive tax rates.

  12. 12
    UKIP are on the rise you fool says:

    Another Newark – when UKIP increased their votes by over 400%

    Newark, 2010:
    1st Conservative, 27,590 votes, 53.9%
    2nd Labour, 11,438 votes, 22.3%
    3rd Liberal Democrat, 10,246 votes, 20.0%
    4th UKIP, 1,954 votes, 3.8 %

    Newark 2014:
    1st Conservative, 17,431 votes, 45.0%
    2nd UKIP, 10,028 votes, 25.9%
    3rd Labour, 6,842 votes, 17.7%
    4th Independent, 1,891 votes, 4.9%

  13. 13
    Duty pedant says:

    awk != auk

  14. 14
    Ex Tory voter says:

    The EU cannot be reformed from the inside and neither can the Conservative party.
    The more backbench Tories start to realise that the better.
    Well done Douglas.

  15. 15
    hard to spot the difference, admittedly says:

    He sounds more like a Labour voter.

  16. 16

    If Dan did move over it would be a very good move for the country as a whole, and UKIP.

    Either way, his being in EP is a big benefit for the UK.

    I do not think he is really a Eurorealist, which is why being in the ECR group is odd. Looking at his politics / writing he seems to share the federalist vision (but not necessarily the pan-Europa vision) and understands that Europe cannot progress with the UK in it.

    He fully understands that Europe needs reform and moving forward the UK needs to enjoy good political relations with Federal Europe.

    Vote UKIP :-D

  17. 17
    ZXZ says:

    Merkel is right. The yanks want as much friction between Europe and the Russkis as possible.

  18. 18
    Remember Newark says:

    Newark, 2010:
    1st Conservative, 27,590 votes, 53.9%
    2nd Labour, 11,438 votes, 22.3%
    3rd Liberal Democrat, 10,246 votes, 20.0%
    4th UKIP, 1,954 votes, 3.8 %

    Newark 2014:
    1st Conservative, 17,431 votes, 45.0%
    2nd UKIP, 10,028 votes, 25.9%
    3rd Labour, 6,842 votes, 17.7%
    4th Independent, 1,891 votes, 4.9%

    Obviously, a very poor result for UKIP. Their momentum has ended.

  19. 19
    David Cameron says:

    I see the trade price for Cod has gone up again today.

  20. 20
    grasmith says:

    I read on a blog (since removed ) just ater the european elections that there would be THREE defections at least to ukip prior to the next election

  21. 21
    PINK TORIES says:


    gotta change my dress

  22. 22

    UK cannot do that with European nationals and it is not understood that way there.

    P’oland would do (or want to do) the same if people were doing this there.

    The assumption that this is targeted at P’olish folk is a real problem as they generally do work here and are not a huge burden on the benefits system.

    P’oland is super sensitive at the moment as they are worried about being screwed over by E’urope and handed back to R’ussia. G’ermany is a bigger problem for them at present.

    Vote UKIP :-D

  23. 23
    Immigration rises by 30% under Dimmy Dave says:

    Or his reductions in immigration.

  24. 24
    James T says:

    UKIP Will win the next Genreal Election or revolution will hit the streets of the UK. The EU must be disbanded – it is a fascist organisation intent on destroying the lives of millions. I would argue that MEPs and the EC should be tried for crimes against humanity.

  25. 25

    No, M’erkel is wrong.

    There is no two-tier alliance.

    Curious that G’ermany has been trying to sew the seeds of dissent on that issue.

    NATO members which do not have permanent NATO presence are at greater risk. The only reason bases were not set up is because there were no credible geo-political risks in the region until recently.

    NATO has been constructing bases since: If R’ussia wishes to take on the alliance it will lose. Badly.

    Vote UKIP :-D

  26. 26
    Prime Minister Dimmy Dave says:

    Have you for a spare pair of silk panties? I seem to have soiled mine.

  27. 27
    Anonymous says:

    In like flynn.

  28. 28
    Voter says:

    In like flynn.

  29. 29

    If the people of C’lacton are behind C’arswell and have supported his defection – which it sounds like they have – this by-election should be a shoo-in for UKIP with a good result.

    Vote UKIP :-D

  30. 30
    Miliband the better miliband says:

    Big thanks to Douglas Caswell for taking the Labour failings in South Yorkshire and The Social Policy Curruption OFF THE FRONT PAGES.

    The Beers are on me if I personally can organise a right-on pissup.


  31. 31

    Or his F’oreign P’olicy adventures…

    Vote UKIP :-D

  32. 32
    The UKIP Street Preachers says:

    If You Tolerate This Your Children Will Be Next

  33. 33
    Maximus says:

    Poland to invade UKreign then. Oh, silly me. It started several years ago.

  34. 34
    jimboooo says:

    It’s our country – Britain belongs to the British who are finally starting to wake up. I couldn’t care less if anyone is offended.

  35. 35
    Clarkes Pie says:

    Bet there’s quite a few other Con MPs with thin majorities considering a move.

    Douglas has done the right thing, and it’ll be good for him and UKIP.

  36. 36
    You Filth says:

    Don’t be an oaf, that news will never go away.

    You are the one playing politics with child abuse – you utter scumbag.

  37. 37
    Max says:

    Low paid hand car was workers from Eastern Europe cost the country a fortune in tax credits.

  38. 38
    David Cummerbund says:

    Ok..Ok..I get the message…I’ll change.

    Here are my new policies for 2015.

    1. A really, really strongly worded letter addressed to the EU demanding a meeting at some time about some things that I get quite cross about.

    2. I will reduce the red tape on boxes of red tape.

    3. A pledge to lower taxes at some time in the next century.

    4. A £5 voucher, for hardworkingfamilies, towards the purchase of an owl. I don’t believe in Labour’s free policy. But I do want to assist those poor people who can’t afford an owl.


  39. 39

    It is only worth caring if the wrong message is being received, which is the case here.

    L’abour may attempt to spin they policy failures onto a broader multi-culti failure to cover up their misdeeds.

    UKIP could make a similar mistake and award Labour a propaganda victory.

    Eye needs to be kept on the ball.

    Vote UKIP :-D

  40. 40
    Old Nick Heavenly says:

    Another Brit politico acts on principle!

    WOW! Far flukin out!

    Well done Mr Carswell!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  41. 41
    Methinks Poland doth protest too much says:

    Why does Poland see an attack on benefits cheats being against them specifically?

    And do they think they have a right to British tax-payers’ money?

  42. 42
    Old Nick Heavenly says:


  43. 43

    £50 Million spent on NATO in Newport Wales. This money could be used to improve health services and Transport in Wales

  44. 44
    Is it kebab 8illy? says:

    He sounds a total tosser.

  45. 45

    The mass immigration figures are on the rise again , our noses are being royally rubbed in all this increased diversity.
    The term net immigration is a euphemism for ethnic cleansing, muslims and Romanian gyppos in, English out . The EU commissars must be wetting themselves with laughter!

  46. 46
    Farages lot are racists says:

    Theres too much riding on letting ukipers win next year or the tories. Look we are a global country and world now. Why do the Tories and ukipers keep trying to interfere with what local muslims to me do with our days? We need to respect private family practises and religious freedoms for people. Britain is not an empire anymore and I get really sick of lots of western practices in this country and freedoms for western types to drink in pubs till late and allow women to be uncovered and earn the same as men for example. The previous Labour government did a good job of allowing free asian communities to do our own thing and I know Ed Miliband will restore this country to muslim freedoms and be a great PM for Asians!

  47. 47
    deleted says:

    What about Bill Cash oh siily me he has no conviction and likes feeding off the public nipple to much. Well done Carswell for doing the honourable thing.

  48. 48
    Mornington Crescent says:

    Or his punishment of my anus.

  49. 49
    The meeja says:

    Dumb the fuckers down with shite Tv… more cake vicar…and find a mental sweaty sock that can hold a tune, or else we are fucked, dont want the plebs thinking for themselves where will it end…

  50. 50
    bell end says:

    “I would argue that MEPs and the EC should be tried for crimes against humanity.”

    MEPs like Farage?

    do go on, make your case…

  51. 51
    Vote Ukip get Labour says:

    A vote for UKIP means a Labour Government and NO referendum.

  52. 52

    The tax-credits system that Labour put in to subsidize low wages needs to be undone.

    It is not clear period why anyone should be subsidized by the taxpayer for working, unless of course they are working in the public sector where they are servants of the taxpayer.

    Vote UKIP :-D

  53. 53

    Ultra-paranoid because they see things from a rather nasty historical perspective.

    And, no they do not.

    Vote UKIP :-D

  54. 54
    Depressing but true says:

    This is why the wife and I will be renting a house abroad in the sunshine for 5 years from next May.

  55. 55
    Weatherman says:

    Your psephology needs to be tempered with geography. Fact: biggest UKIP gains have occurred at the eastmost portions of the country. Curious is it not? No MPs, but it has already had an impact – eg in North Norfolk UKIP has brought about the end of Tory cabinet style government, and oh my, was there an outraged sense of entitlement when that happened. IMO Farage and Carswell will be elected. Newark – meh, too far west just yet.

    New dawn is bringing in an east wind.

  56. 56
    Guido is a Jeremy Hunt says:

    NATO needs to get it’s act in gear, Russia is every step of the way out classing and out smarting the West over Crimea and now Ukraine. Talking about the problem won’t fix it we need actions to support Poland and the Baltic states.

  57. 57
    Maximus says:

    Or the gaiety he is bringing to the nation.

  58. 58
    Dr Death... says:

    That stuff you smeared on the wall of your padded cell, its not chocolate you know…..and whoever told you the windows of your special bus tasted of strawberry was not exactly being truthfull…

  59. 59
    Sir NobSkelpoff says:

    Putin is a Puppet just like the rest of them, behind the lodge door they’re ALL the same, Satan’s little helpers with their trews around their ankles.

    Putin KGB
    Father: NKVD during the war
    Grandfather: Chef for Stalin previously chef at Czar’s court

    The name “Putin” is a shortened version of a royal name, traditionally done for a b@stard branch of the ancestral tree in Russia…

  60. 60
    Sungei Patani says:

    What is it about your postings that makes you use the ‘ all the time?

  61. 61

    Mod’bot paranoia.

    Vote UKIP :-D

  62. 62
    John Bellingham says:

    It cost £40,000 per year to keep someone in prison in the UK. So that is only the cost of locking up 1250 Muzzies for a year or the redundancy cheques for just 55 Labour Party appointed child welfare officers.

  63. 63
    Sungei Patani says:

    When UKIP let in Labour the tax rates will be even more punitive!

  64. 64
    Kick The Bucket.. says:

    Wouldnt it be funny if a rapid drop in body temperature increased your chances of developing ALS…

  65. 65

    Ebola is spreading in the UK. No cure there will be many deaths. I am leaving the country for saftey of my family. I will not return for 20 years.

  66. 66
    The two Muppets says:

    You sound like a typical UKIP supporter .

  67. 67
    The two Muppets says:

    Carswell will stab Farage in the back one day .

  68. 68

    Time will tell.

    If he did it would not work in his, the Conservative Party or the UK’s favour so do not see that as an immediate threat.

    F’arage and UKIP are more savvy than most realize so that possibility would have been carefully considered.

    Vote UKIP :-D

  69. 69

    Another UKIP seat in the bag – almost as big as the Lib Dems

  70. 70
    Anonymous says:

    You sound like a typical tory scumbag

  71. 71
    Taxpayer funded astroturfing EU Troll says:

    Not in Rotherham. Vote UKIP.

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George Galloway says of his former Respect candidate the UKIP MEP turned Tory, Amjad Bashir…

“Clearly Bashir does not have any real political principles or commitment, only naked opportunism and self-interest. He represents the revolving door principle in politics. The Tories are welcome to him because he will cause them embarrassment. Fortunately Respect was able to act before he did it to us.”

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