August 28th, 2014

UKIP Academic: “Dead Cert” for a Carswell Win

DC-UKIPUKIP’s specialist academic Matthew Goodwin tells Guido that Clacton is a “dead cert” for the party and that he had briefed Douglas Carswell about this before he made his decision to quit. He claims that the seat is the most ‘kippy in the country. Intriguingly Goodwin confirmed he had briefed the Parliamentary Conservative Party about where UKIP were the biggest threat and Carswell had been at that presentation. Along with many others.

When Guido asked Farage whether there were any more Tory MPs in the pipeline he refused to say: “You buy the chap one pint and he asks for a second.”


71 Comments

  1. 1
    The Daily Telegraph says:

    Nothing to see, move along…

    Like

  2. 2

    Carswell has done the right thing and should win. This is excellent news.

    Meanwhile, the anti-m’igrant rhetoric that is flying around the front pages needs to be qualified carefully:

    In P’oland this is being seen as an attack on EU m’igrants, and them specifically.

    They perceive this as a repeat of September 1939, and the subsequent B’ritish ‘sale’ of P’oland to S’talin.

    If h’istory is not to repeat a strong U’K-P’oland alliance is needed.

    On the other side of the fence they are hearing talk of 2-Tier N’ATO from G’ermany, as M’erkel seems hell bent on talking NATO out of putting permanent bases in the East E’uropean alliance members territory.

    This is an important issue that UKIP should consider as many in the old eastern bloc countries do regard UK as a leading nation, and P’oland is an special case due to history.

    Vote UKIP :-D

    Liked by 1 person

    • 7
      Anonymong says:

      Of course they’re right, deporting people falsely claiming benefits is right up there with Katyn.

      Like

      • 22

        UK cannot do that with European nationals and it is not understood that way there.

        P’oland would do (or want to do) the same if people were doing this there.

        The assumption that this is targeted at P’olish folk is a real problem as they generally do work here and are not a huge burden on the benefits system.

        P’oland is super sensitive at the moment as they are worried about being screwed over by E’urope and handed back to R’ussia. G’ermany is a bigger problem for them at present.

        Vote UKIP :-D

        Liked by 1 person

    • 10
      Deport Nick Clegg says:

      “Many in the old eastern bloc countries do regard UK as a leading nation cash cow.”

      Fixed it for you. :-)

      Liked by 1 person

    • 17
      ZXZ says:

      Merkel is right. The yanks want as much friction between Europe and the Russkis as possible.

      Like

      • 25

        No, M’erkel is wrong.

        There is no two-tier alliance.

        Curious that G’ermany has been trying to sew the seeds of dissent on that issue.

        NATO members which do not have permanent NATO presence are at greater risk. The only reason bases were not set up is because there were no credible geo-political risks in the region until recently.

        NATO has been constructing bases since: If R’ussia wishes to take on the alliance it will lose. Badly.

        Vote UKIP :-D

        Like

        • 56
          Guido is a Jeremy Hunt says:

          NATO needs to get it’s act in gear, Russia is every step of the way out classing and out smarting the West over Crimea and now Ukraine. Talking about the problem won’t fix it we need actions to support Poland and the Baltic states.

          Like

        • 59
          Sir NobSkelpoff says:

          Putin is a Puppet just like the rest of them, behind the lodge door they’re ALL the same, Satan’s little helpers with their trews around their ankles.

          Putin KGB
          Father: NKVD during the war
          Grandfather: Chef for Stalin previously chef at Czar’s court

          The name “Putin” is a shortened version of a royal name, traditionally done for a b@stard branch of the ancestral tree in Russia…

          Liked by 1 person

    • 33
      Maximus says:

      Poland to invade UKreign then. Oh, silly me. It started several years ago.

      Like

    • 34
      jimboooo says:

      It’s our country – Britain belongs to the British who are finally starting to wake up. I couldn’t care less if anyone is offended.

      Like

      • 39

        It is only worth caring if the wrong message is being received, which is the case here.

        L’abour may attempt to spin they policy failures onto a broader multi-culti failure to cover up their misdeeds.

        UKIP could make a similar mistake and award Labour a propaganda victory.

        Eye needs to be kept on the ball.

        Vote UKIP :-D

        Like

    • 37
      Max says:

      Low paid hand car was workers from Eastern Europe cost the country a fortune in tax credits.

      Like

      • 52

        The tax-credits system that Labour put in to subsidize low wages needs to be undone.

        It is not clear period why anyone should be subsidized by the taxpayer for working, unless of course they are working in the public sector where they are servants of the taxpayer.

        Vote UKIP :-D

        Like

    • 41
      Methinks Poland doth protest too much says:

      Why does Poland see an attack on benefits cheats being against them specifically?

      And do they think they have a right to British tax-payers’ money?

      Like

  3. 3
    Labour are Monsters says:

    Hannan @UKIP…?

    Hannan to lead UKIP when Nige steps down..?

    How good would that be..?

    Like

    • 16

      If Dan did move over it would be a very good move for the country as a whole, and UKIP.

      Either way, his being in EP is a big benefit for the UK.

      I do not think he is really a Eurorealist, which is why being in the ECR group is odd. Looking at his politics / writing he seems to share the federalist vision (but not necessarily the pan-Europa vision) and understands that Europe cannot progress with the UK in it.

      He fully understands that Europe needs reform and moving forward the UK needs to enjoy good political relations with Federal Europe.

      Vote UKIP :-D

      Like

  4. 4
    Maggie forever says:

    At last, someone with balls.

    Like

  5. 5
    Ukip are finished! says:

    This will be another Newark and really UKIP will be proven to be a dead great awk pretty quickly!

    My predictions are usually excellent and I predict a Tory majority of 20 next year. People are too sensible in this country at this crucial time to do anything else. We need another 5 years of Cameron!

    Like

    • 8
      Zig Zag says:

      People are seething, chum.

      Anything could happen at the next election.

      Like

    • 9
      Certifiable says:

      Are you being sarcastic – We need another 5 years of Cameron!

      If you really mean that then you need to check yourself in pretty quick – unless you are a ginger beer of course?

      Like

    • 12
      UKIP are on the rise you fool says:

      Another Newark – when UKIP increased their votes by over 400%

      Newark, 2010:
      1st Conservative, 27,590 votes, 53.9%
      2nd Labour, 11,438 votes, 22.3%
      3rd Liberal Democrat, 10,246 votes, 20.0%
      4th UKIP, 1,954 votes, 3.8 %

      Newark 2014:
      1st Conservative, 17,431 votes, 45.0%
      2nd UKIP, 10,028 votes, 25.9%
      3rd Labour, 6,842 votes, 17.7%
      4th Independent, 1,891 votes, 4.9%

      Like

    • 13
      Duty pedant says:

      awk != auk

      Like

    • 18
      Remember Newark says:

      Newark, 2010:
      1st Conservative, 27,590 votes, 53.9%
      2nd Labour, 11,438 votes, 22.3%
      3rd Liberal Democrat, 10,246 votes, 20.0%
      4th UKIP, 1,954 votes, 3.8 %

      Newark 2014:
      1st Conservative, 17,431 votes, 45.0%
      2nd UKIP, 10,028 votes, 25.9%
      3rd Labour, 6,842 votes, 17.7%
      4th Independent, 1,891 votes, 4.9%

      Obviously, a very poor result for UKIP. Their momentum has ended.

      Like

    • 29

      If the people of C’lacton are behind C’arswell and have supported his defection – which it sounds like they have – this by-election should be a shoo-in for UKIP with a good result.

      Vote UKIP :-D

      Like

      • 67
        The two Muppets says:

        Carswell will stab Farage in the back one day .

        Like

        • 68

          Time will tell.

          If he did it would not work in his, the Conservative Party or the UK’s favour so do not see that as an immediate threat.

          F’arage and UKIP are more savvy than most realize so that possibility would have been carefully considered.

          Vote UKIP :-D

          Like

    • 55
      Weatherman says:

      Your psephology needs to be tempered with geography. Fact: biggest UKIP gains have occurred at the eastmost portions of the country. Curious is it not? No MPs, but it has already had an impact – eg in North Norfolk UKIP has brought about the end of Tory cabinet style government, and oh my, was there an outraged sense of entitlement when that happened. IMO Farage and Carswell will be elected. Newark – meh, too far west just yet.

      New dawn is bringing in an east wind.

      Like

  6. 11
    Taxpayer says:

    I don’t think I could cope with another 5 years of Cameron’s punitive tax rates.

    Like

  7. 14
    Ex Tory voter says:

    The EU cannot be reformed from the inside and neither can the Conservative party.
    The more backbench Tories start to realise that the better.
    Well done Douglas.

    Like

    • 47
      deleted says:

      What about Bill Cash oh siily me he has no conviction and likes feeding off the public nipple to much. Well done Carswell for doing the honourable thing.

      Like

  8. 19
    David Cameron says:

    I see the trade price for Cod has gone up again today.

    Like

  9. 20
    grasmith says:

    I read on a blog (since removed ) just ater the european elections that there would be THREE defections at least to ukip prior to the next election

    Like

  10. 21
    PINK TORIES says:

    brb

    gotta change my dress

    Like

  11. 24
    James T says:

    UKIP Will win the next Genreal Election or revolution will hit the streets of the UK. The EU must be disbanded – it is a fascist organisation intent on destroying the lives of millions. I would argue that MEPs and the EC should be tried for crimes against humanity.

    Like

    • 50
      bell end says:

      “I would argue that MEPs and the EC should be tried for crimes against humanity.”

      MEPs like Farage?

      do go on, make your case…

      Like

  12. 38
    David Cummerbund says:

    Ok..Ok..I get the message…I’ll change.

    Here are my new policies for 2015.

    1. A really, really strongly worded letter addressed to the EU demanding a meeting at some time about some things that I get quite cross about.

    2. I will reduce the red tape on boxes of red tape.

    3. A pledge to lower taxes at some time in the next century.

    4. A £5 voucher, for hardworkingfamilies, towards the purchase of an owl. I don’t believe in Labour’s free policy. But I do want to assist those poor people who can’t afford an owl.

    Thankyou

    Like

  13. 40
    Old Nick Heavenly says:

    Another Brit politico acts on principle!

    WOW! Far flukin out!

    Well done Mr Carswell!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Like

  14. 43

    £50 Million spent on NATO in Newport Wales. This money could be used to improve health services and Transport in Wales

    Like

    • 62
      John Bellingham says:

      It cost £40,000 per year to keep someone in prison in the UK. So that is only the cost of locking up 1250 Muzzies for a year or the redundancy cheques for just 55 Labour Party appointed child welfare officers.

      Like

  15. 45

    The mass immigration figures are on the rise again , our noses are being royally rubbed in all this increased diversity.
    The term net immigration is a euphemism for ethnic cleansing, muslims and Romanian gyppos in, English out . The EU commissars must be wetting themselves with laughter!

    Like

  16. 46
    Farages lot are racists says:

    Theres too much riding on letting ukipers win next year or the tories. Look we are a global country and world now. Why do the Tories and ukipers keep trying to interfere with what local muslims to me do with our days? We need to respect private family practises and religious freedoms for people. Britain is not an empire anymore and I get really sick of lots of western practices in this country and freedoms for western types to drink in pubs till late and allow women to be uncovered and earn the same as men for example. The previous Labour government did a good job of allowing free asian communities to do our own thing and I know Ed Miliband will restore this country to muslim freedoms and be a great PM for Asians!

    Like

    • 54
      Depressing but true says:

      This is why the wife and I will be renting a house abroad in the sunshine for 5 years from next May.

      Like

    • 58
      Dr Death... says:

      That stuff you smeared on the wall of your padded cell, its not chocolate you know…..and whoever told you the windows of your special bus tasted of strawberry was not exactly being truthfull…

      Like

  17. 49
    The meeja says:

    Dumb the fuckers down with shite Tv… more cake vicar…and find a mental sweaty sock that can hold a tune, or else we are fucked, dont want the plebs thinking for themselves where will it end…

    Like

  18. 51
    Vote Ukip get Labour says:

    A vote for UKIP means a Labour Government and NO referendum.

    Like

  19. 64
    Kick The Bucket.. says:

    Wouldnt it be funny if a rapid drop in body temperature increased your chances of developing ALS…

    Like

  20. 65

    Ebola is spreading in the UK. No cure there will be many deaths. I am leaving the country for saftey of my family. I will not return for 20 years.

    Like

  21. 69

    Another UKIP seat in the bag – almost as big as the Lib Dems

    Like


Seen Elsewhere

Comply or Die at Grauniad | MediaGuido
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Labour Turn Their Backs on Jewish Community | Dan Hodges
Chivalry is Not Dead | Laura Perrins
Jonathan Jones is a Tw*t | Iain Dale
Second Scotland Poll Suggests Labour Wipeout | Times
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