June 30th, 2014

Tories Go Ahead With 5% Jump Giving 2% Lead


Ashcroft has released his weekly poll and the Tory number has jumped significantly. Why?

First of all nobody cares about Coulson’s conviction. The voters think they are all the same, Coulson, McBride, Baldwin – meh, whatever. So what is it? Economic growth, that is improving, not dramatically enough to cause a 5% jump. Last time Guido recalls a 5% move in a poll in a week was April 2009.

So it must be the Juncker effect, as much as Labour and their media allies try to paint the whole failure to block Juncker affair as a humiliation the voters don’t care (and nor incidentally do Tory MPs). Voters like handbag swinging in Europe.

Or it is a statistical aberration…


  1. 1
    Pookie Snackumberger says:

    Or it is a statistical aberration…

    No It’s just meaningless bolloks.


    • 11
      DingDongBingBong says:

      Labour have “farted”

      the shitty whif of Blair, Brown and Mandelstone are all in the air

      + ed Miliband is a clueless knobhead


    • 14
      Vote Dave? Get stuffed says:

      The Tories would win the next election by a landslide if they had a true Eurosceptic leader. But they have Kamikaze Dave. So they deserve to lose the election.


      • 18
        Weak fools says:

        They’d have won the last by a landslide if the slimy cùnt and his fruity sidekick hadn’t welshed on the cast iron promise at the earliest possibility.
        Wat sort of fools are they not to have appreciated this, even yet?


        • 23
          The two Muppets says:

          Vote UKIP and get Labour .


          • Mr Neddery says:

            No difference. Brussels will dictate our governance with either of those two parties.


          • Anonymous says:

            Vote Conservative – for a pro Federal EU

            Vote Labour – for a pro Federal EU

            Vote Lib Dem – for a ….. you get the gist of it…


        • 88
          Old Blue Eyes says:

          Cast iron promise of what ? A referendum on the Lisbon treaty. But by the time that Dave came to power the treaty had already been signed by Gordon Brown and a referendum on it would have been a pointless exercise and a waste of taxpayers money. I am no lover of Cameron( I resigned my membership of the Conservative party because of him) but it’s time this business about renageing on a cast iron guarantee was dropped.


          • RickB says:

            Then he should have said if the Lisbon Treaty is ratified before I become Prime Minister then I will give a cast iron guarantee on an in/out referendum but he hasn’t got any balls.

            Vote UKIP.

            Liked by 1 person

          • Anonymous says:

            Rubbish, Cameron is a liar, he pretends to be Eurosceptic but has no intention or ability of ever leaving the EU.

            A bloody traitor.


      • 108

        DAVE DAVIS !!!!


    • 53
      And another thing says:

      statistical aberration…

      Is the Government full of lying traitors and muslim apologists and the pope catholic.

      Liked by 1 person

    • 68
      Anonymous says:

      Regardless of the poll figures, one thing has not so far been considered. It has been clear for some time that Euosceptism has been rising and trust in Camerons “renegotiation pledge” has been deminshing. Knowing as we do that the EU greatly fear the posibility of a UK withdrawal have any of you considered that the whole Junker affair could be a cherade concocted by both Cameron and Brussels in order to elevate his poll ratings,
      Cameron has always declared that he will fight to remain in the EU and in spite of his “renegotiation” claims he is very reluctant to spell out exactly what is up for renegotiation. Yes I know its a cynical speculation but we are talking polotics here and this issue has given him personaly a boost.

      Liked by 1 person

      • 76
        Glyn H says:

        ‘It has been clear for some time that Eurosceptiscism has been rising’ yeah, right brother! Some of us have been around a while; I was hissed my local executive in 1992 when I opposed Maastricht. Welcome to the party.

        Most of these new found EU sceptics were in short trousers then, and only belatedly discovered what a scheming prick the likes of Yeo (remember Julia Stentaford) are.

        Labour, bar Benn et al, thought the EU a Capitalist plot

        Tories thought it a socialist plot; they were right but led by Heath, untrustworthy and ill mannered, were led into this hopeless cul de sac.

        Cameron needs to understand the only way is to invoke article 50, and negotiate from there.

        But if have never earned your own money, built a business on risk and when financially secure turn your abilities to politics what hope have we got?

        A plague on employed directors and career politicians!


      • 106
        Anonymous is a semi-literate moron says:

        Talking POLOTICS? No. You’re talking bollocks, as usual. Go on, Anonymous. Tell us who pays you to sit on your arse all day. Go on. Let’s have a laugh!


    • 70
      Anonymous says:

      Tory Eton Voting Song

      Jolly voting weather
      We are all Europhiles
      We’re very clever
      And lie to you all the while
      You fell for our promise especially the CAST IRON trick
      We’re all from Eton, and you lot are all too thick.

      Regarding our expenses
      We will fill our boots
      We know you don’t like it
      But we don’t give two hoots
      If we get found out we will not shed a tear
      We’ll still be MPs on £60 odd grand a year

      If you think I’ll claim back powers,
      You haven’t got a clue
      We’ll hand the UK to Merkle,
      There is nothing that you can do
      No referendums Changes through on the nod
      I am the PM and I’m a duplicitous sod

      As for immigration
      I know it gets on your tits
      We will flood the nation
      And pay their benefits
      We are from Eton; and we are the ruling class
      If you don’t like it, you can just kiss my a***

      Junker has been elected
      We made a mighty fuss
      The voters have not detected
      Junker is one of us
      We are for Europe becoming just one big state
      When Britain wakes up it will be far too late


    • 107




  2. 2
    Tony Blair, Millionaire says:

    It’s because they really want little old moi to be President!


  3. 3
    Anonymous says:

    That Len McCluskey is a hoot..


    • 6
      The two Muppets says:

      Milibands puppet master .


      • 15
        well there's a surprise says:

        What’s the going rate to secure a seat in the Lords?
        McCluskey has donated £12 million from his union funds
        to the Labour Party.
        Do you reckon that’ll be enough?

        Liked by 1 person

        • 38
          McCluskey thinks big says:

          Palace of Westminster. Too small for his ego. Palace of Windsor. Now you are in the right realm.


  4. 4
    StuffEmAll says:

    It’s the only way normal peeps have of putting two fingers up to EU & Labour! #JunckerSmunker


  5. 5
    Prime Minister"Money's no object" Cameron says:

    “Or it is a statistical aberration” Yes it is and also a rogue poll !!


  6. 8
    Ed Balls says:


    My ascension to Leader is imminent!


  7. 9
    Revelling in the joys of bumsex says:

    Make no mistake,this poll is all about bumsex,I can assure you.


  8. 10
    tony bliar esquire says:

    it’s because im an honest kinda guy


  9. 12
    Mycroft says:

    I’m hoping the mathematical illiterates in Tory HQ think it’s “Giving it to the (EU) man”… they are dumb enough to take that inference.

    It will destroy them from within.

    The Tories can’t take that route without almost immediately creating a schism within.

    Unity is essential for the Cons campaign, if one faction feels itself being taken along for the ride then it will take umbrage at the slight and break the party.

    Happy days!


    • 58
      Anonymous says:

      The Cons with their contradictory double speak on the EU are tying themselves in knots… It is highly amusing.

      The laws of unintended consequences come to pass…

      Cameron’s supposedly tough stance on Junker and his claims we are nearer the exit raises the legitimate question –

      “If the Conservatives achieve no repatriation of powers (which is the only possible outcome) would they be in, or out, of the EU.”

      Up till now, Cameron has stuck to his guns and said – I will not go into a negotiation I will not win, the EU and member countries all recognize that change is needed……

      Clearly, Cameron’s spectacular and highly publicised failure on the Junker negotiation has shot a big hole through this refusal to be drawn on “what if the the renegotiation fails….” – he can’t use that defence now, can he !!!

      Cameron’s promise of being able to renegotiate the UK’s membership is being seen for the sham that it is… if he can’t influence the Juncker debate, how are the Conservatives (or the others for that matter) ever going to be able to change the EU’s mind on the serious issues of UK membership….

      The genie is out of the bottle… the public have witnesses Dave’s public failure and abject weakness…

      The Juncker “issue” is clearly one the Tories should have dodged…

      Any brief ‘glow’ that the Tories might temporarily feel by Cameron standing up for the UK, pails into insignificance compared to the public’s increasing realisation that the UK Govt has no influence over the EU and are impotent to EU power.

      The question remains, if the Conservatives fail to negotitate, are they in, or out of the EU ?


  10. 13
    RED ED - SON OF BROWN says:

    Why ?? Why ?? WHY ??

    We’ve imported MILLIONS of Labour supporters and thousands of Postal Voters.

    It’s almost as if people think I’m weird.


  11. 16
    Ed Balls says:

    Oi !

    You forget to mention,you right wing political blogger,you.

    Latest Ashcroft poll: 32% of Brits want a Labour govt + another 8% a Lab-Lib coalition.

    Only 25% want a Tory majority in govt.


    • 59
      Jim says:

      This Coalition only came about because Voters were unaware of the financial mess and out of control spending that was going on with Labour. They all thought it was just the Bankers on the Fiddle with Tory support.

      It is unlikely there will be another Coalition in your lifetime. UKIP will only support the Tories Vote by Vote against Labour, who will stand alone on their Core Vote.


    • 96
      Jack Ketch says:

      25% of people in Britain have a mental health problem. You can make whjatever assumptions you like on the correlation.



  12. 17
    tony bliar esquire says:

    Oh has anybody seen the hand of history, I thought I felt it on my shoulder not so long ago!


  13. 19
    Vote Dave? Get stuffed says:

    If my memory serves me right the time that Dave came out with a eurosceptic statement several months ago he also got a boost in the polls. But in truth he is as eurosceptic as I am the mastermind of the mafia.


  14. 20
    Shooty* says:

    Just think: he could see a 20, 30 or 40 point rise if he had the balls to stand up and say “Oi! Beheaders! Behave! Less of that sh1t! You’ve not taking over on my watch”.

    And then follow through on it. But he won’t. Obv.


  15. 21
    Remember to donate to Stephen Sutton's Teenage cancer fund says:

    It’s the people’s way of saying: what a wunker, Juncker!

    Stephen Sutton’s Just Giving Teenage Cancer Trust fund needs only another £13,000 to reach £4.25 million.


  16. 22
    Anonymous says:

    I think I may now see the value of Dave’s sideshow bogus battle against Juncker.


  17. 24
    Axe The Telly Tax & Religion & Kill All Eco-loons says:

    The only poll that matters is the one on May 7th 2015.

    If we ever get an IN/OUT referendum on the EU, it must be made clear to voters what a vote to remain IN will mean:

    1. We lose the pound and the Bank of England

    2. The monarchy will have to be abolished

    3. Our armed forces will be merged into a European armed forces

    4. English Common law will be replaced with Napoleonic law

    5. The House of Commons & the Lords will be abolished to make way for Senators & Congressmen

    In short Britain will no longer be a sovereign nation but will have as much power and influence in the world as Texas or California do in the United States.


    • 26
      RED ED - SON OF BROWN says:

      I love it when you talk dirty to me !! :)) YES, YES, YEEEEEEEESSS !!!!


      • 63
        The Government and Opposition says:

        But we don’t give a flying fcuk about that as long as we get a job in the EU for doing our duty and a gold plated tax free pension…


    • 27
      Viperous Old Vince says:

      We LibDems have worked hard to get us to exactly that position :)


    • 34
      Mr Neddery says:

      IN will be sold to the British people as meaning reform. It will only be once the people have voted for that reform that the EU will veto any chance of reform and we’ll be stuck in an unreformed EU on course for full integration.

      In other words, the tory referendum is a corrupt bait and switch con.


    • 36

      According to an American acquaintance the states of the US would never tolerate the levels of interference from Washington that we are experiencing now.


    • 41
      Anonymous says:

      Red Ed can not wait to hand the Falklands to Kirchner.


    • 55
      Anonymous says:

      Actually, Texas and California and all the others have more self-government rights within the USA than we have NOW in the EUSSR. Unlike Brussels (and Berlin) the POTUS’s power is not unlimited.


      • 60
        Axe The Telly Tax & Religion & Kill All Eco-loons says:

        They don’t have their own currency and cannot set their own interest rates. They have federal taxes imposed on them and an FBI that can override the local police.


        • 69
          Anonymous says:

          The Yanks do all speak the same language, eat burgers, watch baseball and call trousers pants… as such they do have a common culture..

          Europe, being more developed, has various world class cuisines, performs badly in a range of sports from bullfighting to caber tossing, speaks 27 different languages and an equal number of different cultures.

          In short, Europe not suited to a Federal Government.

          We are seeing all too clearly what happens in Iraq when you impose artificial borders.


          • Maybe says:

            It has been said that the only culture the EU “citizens” have in common is-Disneyland. The EU economies also differ more than those of the states that formed the USA.


        • 97
          Anonymous says:

          Up to a point. In the states which have legalised pot, the feds said it is still illegal in federal law which they would enforce and the state police said they would get no cooperation whatsoever in relation to pot offences, which effectively stymied the FBI.


    • 101
      Jean-Claude Juncker says:

      Who has leaked my plans?

      People of Britain, you are welcome to attend my victory celebrations-after all you will be paying for them…. All you need to do is to acquire the relevant accreditation in person. Only available in Brussels/Strasbourg. ,price 100 Euros.


  18. 25
    Iain Duncan Smith says:

    Yes,the Conservative led coalition are a government run by bastards and I am proud to be the bastard in chief.

    Bedroom Tax forced stroke victim to turn to crime so he could pay rent


    • 29
      Joss Taskin says:

      Who’s his local MP ? Is it the usual Labour journeyman ?


    • 46
      Truth Hurts says:

      Dear Fucking Dumb Labour Twat

      Could you please explain to me how HMRC are going to collect this Tax that you keep pissing your pants about?


      Someone with a braincell


  19. 28
    nell says:

    well it could have been militwit’s promise of a free owl, or the ‘most major speech of his political career’ last week that went down like a damp squib…….


  20. 31
    Fact says:

    What possible benefit can Dave’s failure over Juncker have been?

    The other European leaders effectively took no notice whatsoever of his views.

    How can Joe and Josephine Public think that Dave has any serious prospect of a successful negotiation with the EU after 2015 prior to a referendum in 2017?

    If they believe that, then they are naive, credulous and innocent idiots.


  21. 32
    Anonymous says:

    Any genuine MPs remaining in the liblabcon need to put country before their Common Purpose infiltrated party and get behind UKIP, or watch Ed & Clegg do their worst.


  22. 35
    Casual Observer 2 says:

    Millycvnt is an unelectable gormless nerd. That is why the Cons. are ahead in spite of Dave’s incompetence.

    No one gives a shit about Coulson. All the rest of the meeja and politicans are equally guilty.


  23. 37
    Disgusted of Belize says:

    Lord Ashtray published one of his exclusive polls on the eve of the Euro elections.

    It had the Tories beating UKIP and coming top.

    They came third and UKIP came top.

    In short they’re are about as reliable as a Trabant climbing Mont Blanc.


  24. 39
    Blue Rinse Handbagger of Tunbridge Wells says:

    I really admire Mr.Cameron — I wish I could remember why.


  25. 42
    Simples says:

    Ashcroft polls are worthless manipulated Conner bollux


  26. 43
    Anonymous says:

    Why the surprise? Wasn’t this the public reaction the last time Junkers threatend Britain?


  27. 45
    Jac says:

    Despite the BBC constantly saying Cameron – and therefore the UK – was “humiliated” and “isolated” the British public know that saying and doing what you believe to be right can never be a humiliation. Backing down on one’s principles and going along with the crowd certainly would be.


    • 49
      Anonymous says:

      Enter through the narrow gate, for wide is the gate and broad is the road that leads to liblabcon destruction.


  28. 47
    Anonymous says:

    Argentina says vote for the usefull idiot Miliband.


    • 65
      The spineless tit slithering under the door of no. 10 says:

      What on earth is the Argies’ beef with me ?


      • 71
        Jethro says:

        54 -Talking of Argies and Beef: do you remember when heaps of people went down with food-poisoning, and it was found that Argentinian Corned Beef had had its tins cooled/sterilised/pasteurised in raw sewage?


  29. 50
    An alien culture is taking over the UK says:

    Cameron and Miliband both make public statements of support for Ramadan, which is an occasion in the calendar of an alien culture, sworn to change our way of life and especially that of women.

    Question – Why isn’t every woman in the UK, marching in the streets to tell Cameron and Miliiband that they either forbid any further inroads of this culture or they lose 50% of the vote?


    • 52
      Axe The Telly Tax & Religion & Kill All Eco-loons says:

      One way to rid the world of Islam is to deport all Muslims to North of the Arctic Circle where for days on end there is no sunrise or sunset (land of the midnight sun).

      So all the muzzbots will die of starvation as Ramadan forbids eating between Sunrise & Sunset :-)


  30. 57
    Tower Hamlets Returning Officer says:

    Results of 2015 General Election now in….


  31. 66

    There are lies, damned lies and statistics. This is probably just a blip.


  32. 67
    Wake up says:

    A lot of people think they are bowing to the East but in reality they are pointing their ar*se holes at the West


  33. 73
    Throw them allout says:

    Just remember Mr Dave Milliband refused to let us vote on the Lisbon Treaty; it was really only a ‘minor re-wording’ of some unimportant clauses.
    He was the man who sent us down the plughole.

    The current call-me-Dave hasn’t a clue what Europe means,that’s why he calls for a referendum any day as long as it is just out of reach.


  34. 74
    LIE-bour says:

    The Labour Party have a strong voting base in London and in the North.

    I live in Ealing and it has been mostly under Labour Council control. Thank to Labour Councils, most of Ealing has been overpopulated and spoilt. Furthermore a lot of the same shops are duplicating (betting shops, fruit & veg shops, charity shops, halal meat shops, cheap takeaways that offer friend chicken, kebabs, pizzas and burgers as one meal for less than £10).

    Most areas in Ealing (Greenford, Northolt, Hanwell, Acton & particularly Southall) vote for Labour (only Ealing itself votes Conservative). That really annoys me because a lot of these people are just brain-dead zombies who are suckers for tribal politics.

    (1) Unemployment benefit map shows party political divide (The Guardian, Thursday 26 January 2012):

    “Twelve of the 15 seats with highest percentage of claimants are held by Labour, while lowest claimant areas are mostly Tory or Lib Dem seats”

    (2) Twelve of the 15 seats with highest percentage of claimants are held by Labour, while lowest claimant areas are mostly Tory or Lib Dem seats (The Guardian, Wednesday 16 March 2011):

    “New research shows Labour MPs harder hit than Coalition members when it comes to unemployment in their constituencies. “.

    (3) Hard-working families forced to pay extra £528 extra on council tax bills to cover £2.4BILLION debt left by people who refuse to pay (Daily Mail, 12 January 2014) :

    “Nine out of the 10 worst councils for collecting council tax are Labour-run”.

    (4) Mid Staffs: Labour Government ignored MP requests for public inquiry into deaths (The Telegraph, 17 Feb 2013):

    “Former Health Secretaries Andy Burnham and Alan Johnson ignored 81 requests for a public inquiry into Mid Staffordshire NHS Trust in the two years after it was first warned of poor NHS care, it has emerged.”

    (5) Welsh NHS has worst waiting times in UK for life-saving diagnostic tests (The Guardian, Thursday 10 April 2014):

    “The Welsh Labour government has come under attack for its NHS record including ambulance waiting times and hospital death rates.”


    • 91
      Tim Yeo-Yo says:

      Anyone would think that Labour voters were all fucking idiots! Very useful idiots but idiots all the same.

      Jimmy likes reminding us several times a day just how dumb they are.


    • 102
      LIE-bour part 2 says:

      (6) Revealed: The £46bn cost of Britain’s roulette machine addiction… and Labour made a mistake allowing ‘casinos’ to flourish, admits Harman (Daily Mail, 5 August 2012):

      “Shadow Culture Secretary Harriet Harman admits Labour was wrong to relax gambling laws”.

      (7) Senior police chief says even HE’S scared to go into Manchester after midnight because Labour’s 24-hour drinking laws have led to spiralling alcohol-fuelled violence (Daily Mail, 1 July 2014):

      “Inspector Ian Hanson said continental-style licensing since 2005 had led to chaos ‘spiralling out of control’. Offenders are now being allowed off the hook because there are too many violent incidents and too few officers because of budget cuts, he said”.


  35. 75
    Margaret Dodge says:

    ITV News on Margaret Hodge (Islington Children’s Homes)


  36. 82
    visibly shaken says:

    experience tells me this is in the rounding


  37. 94
    More muscles in Brussels says:



  38. 104
    Anonymous says:

    “Ashcroft has released his weekly poll and the Tory number has jumped significantly. Why?”
    Because it can? Suppose he’d just thought of some random numbers and jotted them down. Anyone here in a position to contest them?


Tip off Guido
Web Guido's Archives

Subscribe me to:


AddThis Feed Button

Guido Reads

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,646 other followers