“Without change, Labour is choosing to lose.” That is the damning verdict of the Fabian Society in a wide-ranging intervention attacking Ed Miliband’s leadership this morning. Their analysis trailed in this week’s New Statesman is stinging in its criticism of the Labour leader. They warn: “it’s clear that Labour needs to reverse its trajectory, particularly as improvements in the economy will boost Tory polls in 2015”, that Labour is in danger of “abandoning blue-collar Britons and becoming a party of the urban middle class alone”, asking “what is the point of a social-democratic party that loses its working-class soul?” The study also find that Labour is “haemorrhaging” support to UKIP, and that the party is on course to lose six seats to Farage:

“Ukip’s results in the 2014 local and European elections demonstrate the importance of blue-collar voters for Labour. These are the voters it has been haemorrhaging for over a decade; those who once sat at home on election day and are now coming out to vote Ukip.”

The numbers say it all:

• Labour will win significantly less than half of its 106 target seats
• They will lose at least nine currently Labour-held seats
• They are on course to win only 58 seats from the Tories and LibDems, ten short of the 68 they need for a majority

Red on red…