A downbeat John McTernan didn’t think much of Labour’s chances in the European elections when asked by Andrew Neil on the Daily Politics today:

Brillo: “Are we inevtivably heading to European elections in which UKIP is a clear victor, Labour not a great second and the Tories a poor third?”

McTernan: “It’s got that feeling at the moment, hasn’t it. They’re certainly setting the terms of the debate and they have to be derailed by the other parties.”

Yet just two weeks ago the former Labour spinner claimed it was in the bag. In an effort to cheer up Labour supporters with little faith in Ed Miliband’s leadership he listed a “dozen reasons to be cheerful” to the Blairite faithful at Progress, McTernan boasted:

“Labour is set to win the European elections.“

Now he admits that is unlikely, what changed?

McTernan also asserted in that same article that Labour would “storm London in the borough elections.”

More bad news for McTernan, Guido’s top campaign source at CCHQ told him yesterday that he was getting more confident that the Conservatives will do better in London, where economic growth is already resurgent, than might be expected. That storm is looking to blow an ill wind for Miliband…