April 30th, 2014

#Nigel4Newark: the Pros and Cons of Running

The UKIP leader says he will “think very hard” about standing in Newark but appeared cautious last night, asking is it the right seat for me?” Guido gives you the pros and cons facing Farage.

Pros

  • CLICK TO ENLARGEAnalysis by the Election Data website (right, click to enlarge) looking at Mosaic demographic data, past voting behaviour and self-reported political affiliation suggests that Farage would be well received in Newark. The overwhelming majority of the constituency is seen as “receptive” or “fairly receptive” to UKIP, with some areas “very receptive”. Only the town centre are voters described as “unreceptive”.
  • UKIP’s support in the seat has multiplied in the last four years. In 2010 the UKIP candidate polled just 3.8%. As George Eaton notes in the 2013 county council elections the party won 17.1% in Newark and Sherwood. The by-election will come off the back of a Tory humiliation in Europe.
  • Mike Smithson makes a convincing point for the pro camp: the last Tory by-election hold while in government was William Hague at Richmond in 1989 – 25 years ago.
  • Farage has hinted that he wants to run in a by-election before 2015. How many more by-elections will there be in UKIP-friendly Tory seats in the next year?

Cons

  • Patrick Mercer had a majority of 16,152. It is a fairly safe Tory seat.
  • The Tory candidate Robert Jenrick has been putting in the groundwork over the last few weeks in anticipation of a by-election and the Tories are quietly confident their man is the real deal. Though his website needs some work.
  • Farage told BBC News last night his main reservation is that he is not a local candidate, admitting “I haven’t particularly got connections with the local area”. Given UKIP’s Tory opponent has been parachuted in, might UKIP gain from running a candidate from within the constituency instead?
  • The establishment media is with one voice telling Farage that if he does not run in Newark then he is a bottler. His enemies seem awfully keen on Nigel running. The Tory stooges at the Times have put it on their front page, as have the Telegraph. Are they setting a trap?

Or does he who dares win…


54 Comments

  1. 1
    Cato Street Conspirator says:

    Farage would be wise to let a local candidate run and play a presidential and statesmanlike role. It will do him more good in the long run.

  2. 2

    If he does run just you watch little Judas Guido side with all the other scumfucks in the MSM and try to smear good old Nige. We know who pays your kids school fees Guido you fucking two bob spiv.

  3. 3
    Genghiz the kahn says:
  4. 4
    Sonofmod says:

    Presidential / statesmanlike Farage! Give your head a knock:

  5. 5
    the mystic mould with the appearance of the face of Jesus says:

    Can a former MP have MP after their name ? or be called MP ?

  6. 6
    Nigel Farage says:

    Ed Balls

  7. 7
    Gordon Brown says:

    Can I be in Star Wars Episode VII too? After all, I saved the universe.

  8. 8
    Ed Balls says:

    Nigel Farage

  9. 9
    Breaking News says:

    Tune into BBC1 Breakfast now. They just said Nigel Farage is going to be interviewed live in the next few minutes.

  10. 10
    Peter Martin says:

    “The establishment media is with one voice telling Farage that if he does not run in Newark then he is a bottler.”

    If Waldorf & Sta… Robinson & Crick are part of the chorus then some caution is advised, yes.

    Then again, their sophisticated and stealthy machinations to shape policy more than report… well, anything really… have really panned out well for the establishment media well too.

    Decisions, decisions.

  11. 11
    Gerry Mandering says:

    Agree. You have to pick your battles. But he will get lambasted if he does not run.

    F**k it. Get in there Nige

  12. 12
    Long John Silver' s parrot says:

    What a ditherer !

    One straight question and his bum is on the fence.

  13. 13
    Al*x Wickham says:

    Oy Vey !

    Hope you mailed everything to their freepost address! UKIP FREEPOST RLSU-HZBG-UBBG Lexdrum House TQ12 6UT

  14. 14
    Long John Silver' s parrot says:

    A Nation holds its breath.

  15. 15
    BREAKING NEWS says:

    Farage has just said he won’t stand.

  16. 16
    Darth Weevil the Eternally Crazed says:

    Yep, you avoid the main trap and say how a local person should represent a constituency not someone who has been given the task because they are friends with the right people.

  17. 17
    Fruitcake and swivel eyed loony enjoying the utter panic says:

    Great decision Nigel.

    Vote UKIP, get UKIP.

  18. 18
    Darth Weevil the Eternally Crazed says:

    With all that twitching you’d make a fine camera man for a J.J. Abrams film

  19. 19
    BREAKING NEWS says:

    I’m disappointed in Nigel. He said he didn’t want anything that would distract from the European election campaign. Flimsy excuse. He should’ve stood.

  20. 20
    nell says:

    Frit

  21. 21
    Nigel Mirage says:

    I’M TOO FRIT.

  22. 22
    the mystic mould with the appearance of the face of Jesus says:

    trust that you are on a high fibre diet

  23. 23
    Long John Silver' s parrot says:

    Every one of his European expense claims will ne all over this site for taxpayer scrutiny I am sure.

  24. 24
    Dave "Nasty" Cameron says:

    That is the right decision.

  25. 25
    Bloomers in rain-soaked Bongo Bongo Land says:

    He’s on the bottle but hasn’t got any bottle.

  26. 26
    the mystic mould with the appearance of the face of Jesus says:

    whose’s the chuckling pratt interviewing Nigel on R4

  27. 27
    Anonymous says:

    An 11 year old boy has been sexually assaulted in a daylight sex attack by an ‘Asian’ male in his 40′s. I use the term Asian loosely due to the fact that 99% of sex attacks where the offender is described as Asian they turn out to be Muslim.

    Picking the easy target is typical ‘religion of peace’ behaviour. Children, women, those they outnumber are often the ones who fall victim to Muslim thuggery and sexual deviancy. Morals are not one of Muslims’ strong points. So it does not surprise me in the slightest to hear of a young boy being the victim of a random sex attack by a male as there is no limit as to how low they will stoop.

    Birmingham is a city that has seen a mass influx of Muslim immigrants from 3rd world countries over the past couple of decades. Nowhere is a better example of the ‘joys of multiculturalism’ that the far left keep telling us is so great for our nation. It has transformed Birmingham and elevated it to the official shithole of England. Without a doubt the most disgusting, dirty and depressing place i have ever been unfortunate enough to visit in my entire life.

    Birmingham is home to numerous large Muslim ghettos full of Islamic extremists who wish to take over Birmingham’s schools, a city that produces an above average amount of terrorists and where the residents have no intention of integrating preferring to act in an uncivilized lawless manner like they are back home in P@kistan or Somalia. Sex attacks and violence by Muslims are now part of daily life.

    Never before have i felt more a foreigner in my own country as in Birmingham. If your in any doubt go have a walk round the Bullring on a Sunday and you will see exactly what i mean

  28. 28
    @hateliebour says:

    Goodone Nige you are a true leader, frit my arse, you didn’t allow yourself to dance to the media’s tune, now go for it, take the UKIP party to the winning post.

  29. 29
    Ex Tory now UKIP activist says:

    A sensible decision Nige. A 16000 Tory majority is too high a target bearing in mind the amount of effort the Westminster elite would collectively put in to stop you inflicting a second humiliation on Cameron.

  30. 30
    Peter Martin says:

    ‘Course, it could have been a double (triple? Octuple?) bluff.

    Will just have to see whose toys get thrown out of which side of the ‘analysis’ pram if he doesn’t take the baiting.

    Certainly the way things are going I would not be unsurprised to witness various middle-aged white males in suits and specs saying ‘My mama says yo Mama’s chicken..’

    Objectively of course. Via sources close to them… Who say things.

  31. 31
    Fruitcake and swivel eyed loony enjoying the utter panic says:

    Here we go. frit, frit, frit, blah, blah, blah.

    The timing of the by election announcement was obviously engineered to try to back Nigel into a corner and force a rash decision. He has refused to dance to their tune, damn right.

  32. 32
    Ukipper says:

    Yep. Got to wait until exactly the right moment Nige. Ignore the bollux from the chatterati elite & meeja.

    If you were to be only 1 vote short of overturning the massive 16000 the bastards would be screaming that UKIP is finished.

    Too much risk at Newark. Good decision.

  33. 33
    Pookie Snackumberger says:

    Spot on, Nige. Don’t let the combined axis of evil make you dance to their tune.

    This is getting good, the man has sense as well as plenty of Harris.

  34. 34
    Village Idiot says:

    ….Steady on,..Guido gives us access to this site ,which enables us to vent our spleen,and with the resurgent UKIP giving a glimmer of sanity ,we have somewhere to go to relieve our utter contempt for the present political elite who have sold this once proud nation ,down the river,for their own selfish gain!

    …….I would go so far as to say,this blog and UKIP ,has prevented unrest,such is the frustration of some of the electorate!…(probably not what Guido intended)

  35. 35
    Fact says:

    Exactly correct.

  36. 36
    del boy says:

    Its going to be a long hot summer I heard.

  37. 37
    jgm2 says:

    Pretty solid ‘excuse’ I’d say.

  38. 38
    lojolondon says:

    The MSM are all out to get Farage to stand – part of the constant attacks on him and UKIP.
    Thank god for the internet, otherwise we would never have heard of UKIP except through these self-interested biased propaganda machines.

  39. 39
    Feel the enrichment says:

    The ones who talk about the joys of multi culti enrichment are the very ones who live in comfortable upper middle class areas far away from such enrichment. Polly, Owen, Laurie, B Bragg et al wouldn’t be caught dead in Birmingham or Bradford or Tower Hamlets. They want everyone else to live in those shitholes while they live in their Tuscan villas, gated residences and Central London pads.

  40. 40
    Nonbeliever says:

    And they think that farage supporters will think he’s frit? – think again

  41. 41
    Village Idiot says:

    …..Surely our loyal politicians’ would never allow that to happen in Englands Green and pleasant land,a land of such dear souls..This happy breed of men,this little world,
    This precious stone set in a silver sea,
    Which serves it in the office of a war,
    Or as a moat defensive to a house,
    Against the envy of less happier lands;
    This blessed plot,this earth,this realm,this England…..
    This land of such dear souls,this dear,dear land,
    Dear for her reputation through the World…..and our politicians ruined it!!!!!

  42. 42
    Corby says:

    It is vital to have the candidate who is the right fit.

    It is winnable by UKIP – there have been more sensational upsets .

  43. 43
    Ockham's Razor says:

    +1

  44. 44
    PufsRus says:

    yeah — like that Lucas watermelon in Brighton.

  45. 45
    Hobo humping Slobo babe says:

    UKIP theme song

  46. 46
    tigerowl says:

    Was Cyril Smith a Muslim? Was Jimmy Saville a Muslim? No wonder you post as anonymous. Hide your racism and bigotry shows what a coward you are. Your comment has produced not thing of reality. Small world you live in. under a stone no doubt.

  47. 47
    tigerowl says:

    There was no chance Nigel would ever stand. Man has no bottle. Man is a coward. This was the perfect seat for him. St. George campaigning for the Englishman against the establishment. Overturns a massive 16k majority. UKIP on the march. UKIP leader walks proudly into Westminster.
    No chance. Easy for cowards to stand on the touch line and shout insults. He will stand when there is an easy seat to take. UKIP campaign in Eastleigh was a disgrace. In Rotherham they played the race card. A party that has no policies only scare stories that never stand up, is just wasting everyone’s time.
    If the leader has not the bottle why should anyone listen to the rest of the numpties?
    I feel sorry for the people who live in Newark. They will be bored rigid by all the attention for weeks to come. Tory to win with a small majority. But all By elections are that way. Hardly anyone votes. It is only a few more months to the next election, so why bpther?

  48. 48
    tigerowl says:

    It even looks like Farage.

  49. 49
    Anonymous says:

    “does he who dares win…”
    by turning the political system on its head? With a stump speech, that offers to bring real democracy into corrupted politics. Before every region in the land declares their own independence from it.

  50. 50
    daveyone1 says:

    Reblogged this on World4Justice : NOW! Lobby Forum. and commented:
    Should have stayed in Maidstone when he decided to go for Bercow in Buckingham!

  51. 51
    The Sod says:

    Guido., the Telegraph is no longer a Tory supporting paper, it has become the sister to the Guardian.

  52. 52
    CHRIST ON A BIKE! says:

    Oh FFS! The papers aren’t only trying to stitch up Farage, they want to get Labour in the back door by splitting the right-wing vote. Trying to force Parker into standing is more likely about hoping Liebour’s postal votes will sneak them a victory with a UKIP-Tory vote split.

  53. 53
    catesby says:

    Ultimately Nige has made the correct decision not to stand. The party isn’t a one-man band. He has other pressing engagements like the forthcoming Euros and Locals. The same sneering dimwit controlled media were saying that Bonkers Boris might stand so what the hell do they know! Well done Nige you are entirely correct.

  54. 54
    tom says:

    Nigel is probably a bit too street smart to walk into this one. If he loses the risk is too high. Better UKIP pick another candidate if they can find someone who won’t embarrass them – so not like Mercer then.


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