April 14th, 2014

Mercer By-Election Speculation Growing

Panic stations as the Standards Committee report into Patrick “Guido will be all over this” Mercer is expected very soon – it’s widely expected to be damning after last year’s lobbying sting. If the Committee recommend a long suspension from the House, the MacShane precedent is a resignation and a by-election. There is also scope for a headache vote in the Commons if Mercer does not jump. Just what No. 10 need right now.

 

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27590 (53.9%)
Labour: 11438 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 10246 (20%)
UKIP: 1954 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 16152 (31.5%)

Nottinghamshire is lovely this time of year. Mercer’s notionally safe Tory seat of Newark in the East Midlands has a chunky Labour vote and would be a big test for UKIP, who are doing well out of the latest outbreak of Tory sleaze stories. If they can’t win in circumstances like this, then where can they?

Data via UK Polling Report

93 Comments

  1. 1
    EU Funded Pro-EU Troll says:

    Vote UKIP

  2. 2
    David Cameron says:

    I remain fully confident in Patrick.

  3. 3
    The 1922 Committee says:

    We were brought up to call a spade a spade. Now we must call it anything but, for sake of PC.

  4. 4
    Meanwhile, somewhere in a Labour think tank says:

    Spade is no longer rac!st !

  5. 5
    A genuine plea says:

    In the event of a by-election, I urge all Tory voters and floating voters in that seat to vote UKIP. Even if it’s just as a protest vote. Nothing would be more delicious, more popcorn worthy and more of a bloody nose to Cameron and Labour than for there to be the first UKIP MP less than a year before the general election.

  6. 6
    Yawns and looks out of window says:

    going from three to fifty three percent is possible eh?

    wanna bet gwido?

    or get real

  7. 7
    For some reason, Geedo's been deleting posts mentioning muzees today says:

    First they demanded halal butchers. The left said any criticism of the barbaric practice is islamaphobic.

    Then they demanded mosques everywhere. The left said it’s their right.

    Hate preachers started indoctrinating young minds. The left said it was islamaphobic to criticise.

    Then they started wearing the burka in public. The left said it was islamaphobic to call it anti-social.

    Then they demanded publicly funded faith schools. The left said it’s their right.

    Then they demanded halal meat be served in secular schools. The left said it’s islamaphobic to complain.

    Then they demanded sharia law be permitted in cases involving muslims. The left said it’s their right.

    And then they launched a covert operation to take over secular schools in Britain where already one teacher has praised a suicide bomber in assembly. The left say it’s islamaphobic to even mention this issue.

    And when they start publicly lynching women, gays and J*ws, the left will suddenly fall silent.

  8. 8
    Anonymous says:

    So if UKIP can’t move from 3.8% of the vote to outright victory in a single by-election then they’re finished?

    Love the logic there Guido.

  9. 9
    BBC 24hr rolling bollocks says:

    If the only rule MPs had to abide by was to not fuck a chicken you can bet you would find at least one with feathers in his pants.

  10. 10
    Straight bloke passed over for promotion by a useless tart says:

    Well looking on the positive side….

  11. 11
    It's Abu't time! says:

    Trial of Abu Hamza starting today in the US. Fuck Oscar Pistorius, this is one trial I hope is televised. I want to see that dirty, hook handed raghead terrorist c-unt cross examined to shreds.

  12. 12
    C O (Ξ7q1) says:

    It appears that the J-Post are also deleting some of their articles.

    Odd.

  13. 13
    BBC games host says:

    Play your cards right.

  14. 14
    Logic Lover says:

    Guido’s right.

  15. 15
    only minorities prosper in shithole - but it will all end in tears says:

    re mercer

    he’s white, male, middle aged and straight and previously had a proper job before becoming a member of parliament.

    he didn’t stand a chance in that house of charlatans.

    probably fitted up by the g@y mafia…good and proper.

  16. 16
    Jim Devine's shelves says:

    +1

  17. 17
    Figel Narage says:

    +2

  18. 18
    The sickness permitted within in the name of the peace process says:

    Praising terrorists in schools?..
    That’s no new phenomenon.
    Roman Catholic sectarian schools on Northern Ireland have been praising the IRA for decades, actively fostering a hatred of Protestants and anything British.

  19. 19
    Bore Alert says:

    You posted the same thing on the last thread.

    I expect on a dozen others. too

  20. 20
    It's Abu't time! says:

    Posts about muzee scum?

    Yes, I said it, they’re scum. Bunch of raghead, nonce worshipping, camel riding, cow tongue eating, child r*ping, female genital mutilating, honour killing, suicide bombing, women hating, illiterate, barbaric c-unts.

  21. 21
    Anonymous says:

    Would be an interesting by-election. Especially if timed to fall on the same day as the Euro Elections (although I can see the Tories doing all they can to avoid that).

  22. 22
    Táxpáyér says:

    Guido’s gone native.

    Or perhaps the poisonous homunculus has done his job.

  23. 23
    No says:

    I reposted because earlier comments had been deleted and that one was at risk of deletion too.

  24. 24
    Moley says:

    UKIP cannot “lose”.

    It is a bit much too regard “not winning” from a starting point of 4% as a failure.

    On the other hand, The Lib Dems are likely to go from 20% to single figures; the Tory vote is going to get hammered, and Labour may well slip through on the reduced Tory vote and Lib Dem returnees.

    The Tories will see just how much damage UKIP is going to do to them in 2015, and Cameron will only have himself to blame; firstly for insulting UKIP members, secondly for breaking that cast iron promise. and thirdly for failing to take action against Miller’s abuse of expenses to enhance her property investments.

  25. 25
    David Cameron also says:

    Patrick has my warm support.

  26. 26
    BBC 24hr rolling bollocks says:

    Questions I would like answered:
    How does he wipe his own arse?

  27. 27
    the gardener says:

    ‘Nottinghamshire is lovely this time of year.’

    is this a non-secateur?

  28. 28
    Not a Liblabconner says:

    Oh look that lying cnut is back pretending to be funded.

    What a twat.

  29. 29
    Silly turd says:

    Fourthly for trying to drag us into another war on a lie.

  30. 30
    Mornington Crescent says:

    Hear, hear.

  31. 31
    Me says:

    There are enough Lefties here who would lick it for him.

  32. 32
  33. 33
    Voter says:

    Not to mention the NPPF menacing the countryside.

  34. 34
    Nermal says:

    “If they can’t win in circumstances like this, then where can they?”

    Just a hint of a smear in the article Guido. Are you really saying that if UKIP can’t win here then its all over for UKIP? still it wold really piss on your parade if they did win.

  35. 35
    Bosun Higgs says:

    Guido ‘Like a dose of clap’? Irritating, persistent, embarrassing, hard to shift, always on the piss…..

  36. 36
    UKIP 4 ALL says:

    UKIP going from 4% to 25-30% will be portrayed by the MSM as a catastrophic defeat.

    It would be nice to see UKIP win but in reality anything over 25% is a massive victory because it points to a vote share in 2015 that will result in actual seats at Westminster.

  37. 37
    Nermal says:

    It’s to be called a digging implement.

  38. 38
    Winston says:

    Spot on. Guido’s been reading too many Tory spin doctor emails and lost his independence and logic, so looks an ar$e.

  39. 39
    Captain Hook says:

    Bad form, Hamza, bad form!

  40. 40
    Michael Gove says:

    UK military spending is £39bn every year. Enough to stop the cuts to the NHS. Twice.

  41. 41
    Moley says:

    Forgive my ignorance, but who are the NPPF?

  42. 42
    Sue Denim says:

    Guido – if you drew your graph the way you normally do (with a base line of about 40%), only the Conservatives would be on it.

  43. 43
    Owen Jones says:

    The Guardian receptionist just asked me if I was here for work experience.
    I said,
    “I’ve never experienced work and that’s the way I’d like to keep it thank you”
    She laughed but I wasn’t joking.

  44. 44
    Fuddle_Duddle says:

    If the Cons managed to find a stupid, feminist blockhead even she would have trouble in laying waste a 16K majority on an improving economy ticket.
    Yes I did say “She”.
    Anyone care to answer why?

  45. 45
    Twampersand mk II says:

    Lol

  46. 46
    Twampersand mk II says:

    Muslims don’t wipe their arses.

    That’s why they all smell so good.

  47. 47
    The US Forest Service says:

    We prefer a scattershot approach to advertising.

  48. 48
    Nermal says:

    Does that include Kentucky fried Abbot.

  49. 49
    Anonymous says:

    How can we answer when you haven’t asked a question?

  50. 50
    M­a­­­­q­bo­­ul says:

    Sounds like a challenge not a smear.

  51. 51
    Cut spending on everything except the NHS says:

    Take things to there logical conclusion and you get to a point where everyone in the country is either in hospital for treatment or because they work there.

  52. 52
    M­a­­­­q­bo­­ul says:

    How does he wipe is arse?

    The answer to that one is very carefully.

    But you should know that they use their left hand for that and their right for eating. Considered bad form to pass anything to an Arab with your ‘dirty” left hand.

  53. 53
    UKIPPER says:

    Well this is what has been happening in local elections since March 6th so anything is possible

    From and including all the local elections since 6th March 2014 UKIP have contested no less than 25. Of which 19 were contested for their first time by UKIP. Over this period UKIP’s vote share ranged from 8.2% to 28.8%. The average percentage for UKIP over this period is no less than 19.32% and remember these are actual votes cast they are not subject to weightings or other analysis.
    No doubt about it UKIP will cost the Tories many seats in the GE and they are beginning to realise that fact.

    VOTE UKIP

  54. 54
    Táxpáyér says:

    Most interesting is if Labour win as UKIP split the Dave party vote.

    UKIP people must then go “Do we want that at the general election?”

    OTOH

    Dave and his backbenchers would worry about their phoney baloney jobs, so making a UKIP deal more likely.

  55. 55
    ? says:

    Because the Cons have already got their token tart candidate lined up?

  56. 56
  57. 57
    Nigel Farage says:

    Who do you think has taken our country? And where?!

  58. 58
    Edward says:

    Blimey…the tax take per year is around £470bn per year.

  59. 59
    Jimmy says:

    And righties to plug it up afterwards!

  60. 60
    Twampersand mk II says:

    Considered poor form to give a shit about arab mumbo-jumbo.

  61. 61
    Nigel Evans says:

    I think he is left.

  62. 62
    Fruitcake, swivel eyed loon, closet racist and proud of it says:

    I’m just waiting for the 1st Tory MP to break ranks and try to defect to UKIP. I say try as I’d hope Farage would tell him/her to feck off.

  63. 63
    God's holy trousers says:

    Ho, ho, ho.

  64. 64
    Owen Jones's mum says:

    Owen, darling, there’s a very sticky bedsheet in your room that needs putting into the washing basket if you’re feeling up to it, darling. I’m sorry but I’m very busy shopping for fishfingers for your tea but I’ll bring you some sherbert dips to make up for it.

  65. 65
    Bob Crow says:

    I’d vote UKIP if I had my time again.

  66. 66
    Harriet Harman says:

    There needs to be a minimum of 50% women in the cabinet as if only the talented ones are allowed in I’d be out.

  67. 67
    Anonymous says:

    just to continue from earlier the notion of an anti-christ is very convenient… that is to say if someone or a movement comes along and threatens your power and control you just label them to be the one that the new testament said would tip up at some point and most people would fall for it. kind of a built in mechanism to reel out when organized christian collectives get exposed.

    and to talk about your church be the one and only true church is incredibly offensive to a whole multitude of people who have sincere faith in religions that worship multiple deities… and these are people who haven’t gone around exporting their faith as a cover for pilfering. it is a sick world for example where the biggest retailer of books is called “amazon”. when you consider how its peoples and itself as the lungs of the earth have been decimated and it all began thanks to catholics. but don’t get me wrong i might be a prot by birth but i find them uglier to deal with than catholics. in short pretty much anyone whose mind has been warped by the abrahamic faiths is a massive festering pain in the arse… and i include myself in that. show me the papers of camilla renouncing her catholicism and i will happily retract what i have said. also prove to me that diana was not a catholic. i provided you with evidence that her brother was that way inclined and it is not like there is any record of him having converted ergo he was born that way and thus so must she have been. to have willfully hid this from the masses is deceit at the worst level and does not bode well that there was some sort of benevolent reason for keeping it quiet. and if we were in a parallel universe and it was the other way round aka a catholic heir to throne secretly marrying a protestant i would still be making an issue about it.

    as for the eu and common purpose- you know those vermin training people to be leaders in the post democratic age you might want to consider they are partners with the duke of edinburgh’s commonwealth study conferences http://www.cscleaders.org now is that a case of keeping your enemies close or is it something else?

  68. 68
    London Underground appeasers says:

    Time-and-a-half, Bob?
    Certainly.

    And a day off in lieu. just don’t make a fuss before our short-term bonuses are calculated

  69. 69
    The People's Army says:

    Bring it on Toffs!

  70. 70
    The People's Army says:

    Even if UKIP comes a close second, that puts every single Tory marginal in range of Farage’s tanks in 2015.

    Bring it on!

  71. 71
    The People's Army says:

    When some Tory Marginal’s hang by a thread of just 1-5%…… a 50% swing to UKIP would wipe most Tories from Westminster.

    Brown Trouser time a CCHQ.

    The smear campaign in the Tory media has just made UKIP stronger

  72. 72
    The typically ignorand Euan or will or any other of the Labour parachutists says:

    I think that this is a safe seat for me.

  73. 73

    UKIP shouldn’t get too excited by this for the reasons here: http://order-order.com/2014/04/14/mercer-by-election-speculation-growing/
    They didn’t do too well in 2013, but, who knows if they start campaigning vigorously.

  74. 74
    NI 99 er says:

    But what is that dark-hued thing in the woodpile?

  75. 75
    C Kent, Gotham. says:

    Derbyshire is much better.

    Newark is a great anagram of Wanker.

  76. 76
    Fred the pensioner says:

    Agree. Our host seems to losing his usual touch of subtlety. Must be looking at one of his own dodgy graphs.

  77. 77
    Fred the pensioner says:

    Luv a duck???

  78. 78
    Fred the pensioner says:

    Ok, we’ll put you down as a ‘maybe’ then.

  79. 79
    Jabba Le Chat says:

    Unfortunately, you overlook the fact that the average voter turnout for all those elections is less than 25%, hence your analysis is pretty meaningless…

  80. 80
    Halibert Hall says:

    UKIP voters do turn out !!!

  81. 81
    Garrotted says:

    UKIP slogan….”Vote Conservative, Get Labour”

  82. 82
    Gordon "Picker" Brown says:

    There’s no way he’ll lose his job.

  83. 83
    Axe The Telly Tax & Religion & Kill All Eco-loons says:

    They should feed him to the crocodile like Peter Pan did :-)

  84. 84
    Anonymous says:

    I’m sure Eton toffs consider Nottinghamshire a shit hole at any time of the year…

    I doubt tbd Tories have any grass roots support left there given Camoron so obviously hates Conservatives.

  85. 85
    Anonymous says:

    Whether the UK leaves the EU or stays and surrenders its last ounces of sovereignty to the EU is a more important question than which brand of liberal socialism LibLabCon you vote for.

    It’s like complaining about the in-flight movie as the plane plummets to the ground.

  86. 86
    Anonymous says:

    Which might mean something if there were a shred of difference between the LibLabCon and their left of centre pro EU big state politics.

    The Tories are a spent force and woule be best served by merging with the LibDims with whom they are much more closely aligned.

  87. 87
    The Great British Public says:

    We agree 100%

  88. 88
    The Great British Public says:

    We dont trust that lying Cameron.

    He is, as many have said before, and as history will judge, a complete and utter cnut.

  89. 89
    The Great British Public says:

    The Tories have forgotten how to campaign because many of their supporters at grass roots have left.

    This by election will ruffle a few feathers at CCHQ… Could it lead to Cameron being ousted or will the Tories continue to walk over the cliff like lemmings…

    My monies on the cliff.

  90. 90
    trying to be serious for a change says:

    Sounds more like a sneer than a smear.

    It’s a safe Tory seat, sure they’ll lose a chunk, but the sincere analysis would be looking at whether Labour can take the LibDems chunk, and come a close second, or whether UKIP will take slice off all three.

  91. 91
    I like a bit of lynching of a morning says:

    You should have started it…

    “We will fight them in the butchers…”

  92. 92
    if I only had a hand... says:

    …or show him non-stop porn movies

  93. 93
    Rebecca Harrison MP says:

    What, like Bob Spink?


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