April 14th, 2014

Mercer By-Election Speculation Growing

Panic stations as the Standards Committee report into Patrick “Guido will be all over this” Mercer is expected very soon – it’s widely expected to be damning after last year’s lobbying sting. If the Committee recommend a long suspension from the House, the MacShane precedent is a resignation and a by-election. There is also scope for a headache vote in the Commons if Mercer does not jump. Just what No. 10 need right now.

 

2010 Result:
Conservative: 27590 (53.9%)
Labour: 11438 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 10246 (20%)
UKIP: 1954 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 16152 (31.5%)

Nottinghamshire is lovely this time of year. Mercer’s notionally safe Tory seat of Newark in the East Midlands has a chunky Labour vote and would be a big test for UKIP, who are doing well out of the latest outbreak of Tory sleaze stories. If they can’t win in circumstances like this, then where can they?

Data via UK Polling Report

93 Comments

  1. 1
    EU Funded Pro-EU Troll says:

    Vote UKIP

    Like

    • 6
      Yawns and looks out of window says:

      going from three to fifty three percent is possible eh?

      wanna bet gwido?

      or get real

      Like

    • 27
      the gardener says:

      ‘Nottinghamshire is lovely this time of year.’

      is this a non-secateur?

      Like

      • 75
        C Kent, Gotham. says:

        Derbyshire is much better.

        Newark is a great anagram of Wanker.

        Like

      • 84
        Anonymous says:

        I’m sure Eton toffs consider Nottinghamshire a shit hole at any time of the year…

        I doubt tbd Tories have any grass roots support left there given Camoron so obviously hates Conservatives.

        Like

    • 28
      Not a Liblabconner says:

      Oh look that lying cnut is back pretending to be funded.

      What a twat.

      Like

    • 32
      Táxpáyér says:

      http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/4/14/constraining-generators.html

      Why you should never trust the Grauniad.

      Like

    • 34
      Nermal says:

      “If they can’t win in circumstances like this, then where can they?”

      Just a hint of a smear in the article Guido. Are you really saying that if UKIP can’t win here then its all over for UKIP? still it wold really piss on your parade if they did win.

      Like

      • 50
        M­a­­­­q­bo­­ul says:

        Sounds like a challenge not a smear.

        Like

        • 90
          trying to be serious for a change says:

          Sounds more like a sneer than a smear.

          It’s a safe Tory seat, sure they’ll lose a chunk, but the sincere analysis would be looking at whether Labour can take the LibDems chunk, and come a close second, or whether UKIP will take slice off all three.

          Like

      • 54
        Táxpáyér says:

        Most interesting is if Labour win as UKIP split the Dave party vote.

        UKIP people must then go “Do we want that at the general election?”

        OTOH

        Dave and his backbenchers would worry about their phoney baloney jobs, so making a UKIP deal more likely.

        Like

        • 85
          Anonymous says:

          Whether the UK leaves the EU or stays and surrenders its last ounces of sovereignty to the EU is a more important question than which brand of liberal socialism LibLabCon you vote for.

          It’s like complaining about the in-flight movie as the plane plummets to the ground.

          Like

    • 53
      UKIPPER says:

      Well this is what has been happening in local elections since March 6th so anything is possible

      From and including all the local elections since 6th March 2014 UKIP have contested no less than 25. Of which 19 were contested for their first time by UKIP. Over this period UKIP’s vote share ranged from 8.2% to 28.8%. The average percentage for UKIP over this period is no less than 19.32% and remember these are actual votes cast they are not subject to weightings or other analysis.
      No doubt about it UKIP will cost the Tories many seats in the GE and they are beginning to realise that fact.

      VOTE UKIP

      Like

      • 79
        Jabba Le Chat says:

        Unfortunately, you overlook the fact that the average voter turnout for all those elections is less than 25%, hence your analysis is pretty meaningless…

        Like

    • 70
      The People's Army says:

      Even if UKIP comes a close second, that puts every single Tory marginal in range of Farage’s tanks in 2015.

      Bring it on!

      Like

      • 81
        Garrotted says:

        UKIP slogan….”Vote Conservative, Get Labour”

        Like

        • 86
          Anonymous says:

          Which might mean something if there were a shred of difference between the LibLabCon and their left of centre pro EU big state politics.

          The Tories are a spent force and woule be best served by merging with the LibDims with whom they are much more closely aligned.

          Like

  2. 2
    David Cameron says:

    I remain fully confident in Patrick.

    Like

  3. 3
    The 1922 Committee says:

    We were brought up to call a spade a spade. Now we must call it anything but, for sake of PC.

    Like

  4. 5
    A genuine plea says:

    In the event of a by-election, I urge all Tory voters and floating voters in that seat to vote UKIP. Even if it’s just as a protest vote. Nothing would be more delicious, more popcorn worthy and more of a bloody nose to Cameron and Labour than for there to be the first UKIP MP less than a year before the general election.

    Like

  5. 7
    For some reason, Geedo's been deleting posts mentioning muzees today says:

    First they demanded halal butchers. The left said any criticism of the barbaric practice is islamaphobic.

    Then they demanded mosques everywhere. The left said it’s their right.

    Hate preachers started indoctrinating young minds. The left said it was islamaphobic to criticise.

    Then they started wearing the burka in public. The left said it was islamaphobic to call it anti-social.

    Then they demanded publicly funded faith schools. The left said it’s their right.

    Then they demanded halal meat be served in secular schools. The left said it’s islamaphobic to complain.

    Then they demanded sharia law be permitted in cases involving muslims. The left said it’s their right.

    And then they launched a covert operation to take over secular schools in Britain where already one teacher has praised a suicide bomber in assembly. The left say it’s islamaphobic to even mention this issue.

    And when they start publicly lynching women, gays and J*ws, the left will suddenly fall silent.

    Like

    • 10
      Straight bloke passed over for promotion by a useless tart says:

      Well looking on the positive side….

      Like

      • 18
        The sickness permitted within in the name of the peace process says:

        Praising terrorists in schools?..
        That’s no new phenomenon.
        Roman Catholic sectarian schools on Northern Ireland have been praising the IRA for decades, actively fostering a hatred of Protestants and anything British.

        Like

    • 16
      Jim Devine's shelves says:

      +1

      Like

    • 19
      Bore Alert says:

      You posted the same thing on the last thread.

      I expect on a dozen others. too

      Like

      • 23
        No says:

        I reposted because earlier comments had been deleted and that one was at risk of deletion too.

        Like

        • 91
          I like a bit of lynching of a morning says:

          You should have started it…

          “We will fight them in the butchers…”

          Like

  6. 8
    Anonymous says:

    So if UKIP can’t move from 3.8% of the vote to outright victory in a single by-election then they’re finished?

    Love the logic there Guido.

    Like

    • 14
      Logic Lover says:

      Guido’s right.

      Like

    • 22
      Táxpáyér says:

      Guido’s gone native.

      Or perhaps the poisonous homunculus has done his job.

      Like

    • 38
      Winston says:

      Spot on. Guido’s been reading too many Tory spin doctor emails and lost his independence and logic, so looks an ar$e.

      Like

    • 71
      The People's Army says:

      When some Tory Marginal’s hang by a thread of just 1-5%…… a 50% swing to UKIP would wipe most Tories from Westminster.

      Brown Trouser time a CCHQ.

      The smear campaign in the Tory media has just made UKIP stronger

      Like

      • 76
        Fred the pensioner says:

        Agree. Our host seems to losing his usual touch of subtlety. Must be looking at one of his own dodgy graphs.

        Like

  7. 9
    BBC 24hr rolling bollocks says:

    If the only rule MPs had to abide by was to not fuck a chicken you can bet you would find at least one with feathers in his pants.

    Like

  8. 11
    It's Abu't time! says:

    Trial of Abu Hamza starting today in the US. Fuck Oscar Pistorius, this is one trial I hope is televised. I want to see that dirty, hook handed raghead terrorist c-unt cross examined to shreds.

    Like

  9. 12
    C O (Ξ7q1) says:

    It appears that the J-Post are also deleting some of their articles.

    Odd.

    Like

    • 20
      It's Abu't time! says:

      Posts about muzee scum?

      Yes, I said it, they’re scum. Bunch of raghead, nonce worshipping, camel riding, cow tongue eating, child r*ping, female genital mutilating, honour killing, suicide bombing, women hating, illiterate, barbaric c-unts.

      Like

  10. 15
    only minorities prosper in shithole - but it will all end in tears says:

    re mercer

    he’s white, male, middle aged and straight and previously had a proper job before becoming a member of parliament.

    he didn’t stand a chance in that house of charlatans.

    probably fitted up by the g@y mafia…good and proper.

    Like

  11. 21
    Anonymous says:

    Would be an interesting by-election. Especially if timed to fall on the same day as the Euro Elections (although I can see the Tories doing all they can to avoid that).

    Like

  12. 24
    Moley says:

    UKIP cannot “lose”.

    It is a bit much too regard “not winning” from a starting point of 4% as a failure.

    On the other hand, The Lib Dems are likely to go from 20% to single figures; the Tory vote is going to get hammered, and Labour may well slip through on the reduced Tory vote and Lib Dem returnees.

    The Tories will see just how much damage UKIP is going to do to them in 2015, and Cameron will only have himself to blame; firstly for insulting UKIP members, secondly for breaking that cast iron promise. and thirdly for failing to take action against Miller’s abuse of expenses to enhance her property investments.

    Like

  13. 35
    Bosun Higgs says:

    Guido ‘Like a dose of clap’? Irritating, persistent, embarrassing, hard to shift, always on the piss…..

    Like

  14. 36
    UKIP 4 ALL says:

    UKIP going from 4% to 25-30% will be portrayed by the MSM as a catastrophic defeat.

    It would be nice to see UKIP win but in reality anything over 25% is a massive victory because it points to a vote share in 2015 that will result in actual seats at Westminster.

    Like

  15. 40
    Michael Gove says:

    UK military spending is £39bn every year. Enough to stop the cuts to the NHS. Twice.

    Like

    • 51
      Cut spending on everything except the NHS says:

      Take things to there logical conclusion and you get to a point where everyone in the country is either in hospital for treatment or because they work there.

      Like

    • 58
      Edward says:

      Blimey…the tax take per year is around £470bn per year.

      Like

    • 67
      Anonymous says:

      just to continue from earlier the notion of an anti-christ is very convenient… that is to say if someone or a movement comes along and threatens your power and control you just label them to be the one that the new testament said would tip up at some point and most people would fall for it. kind of a built in mechanism to reel out when organized christian collectives get exposed.

      and to talk about your church be the one and only true church is incredibly offensive to a whole multitude of people who have sincere faith in religions that worship multiple deities… and these are people who haven’t gone around exporting their faith as a cover for pilfering. it is a sick world for example where the biggest retailer of books is called “amazon”. when you consider how its peoples and itself as the lungs of the earth have been decimated and it all began thanks to catholics. but don’t get me wrong i might be a prot by birth but i find them uglier to deal with than catholics. in short pretty much anyone whose mind has been warped by the abrahamic faiths is a massive festering pain in the arse… and i include myself in that. show me the papers of camilla renouncing her catholicism and i will happily retract what i have said. also prove to me that diana was not a catholic. i provided you with evidence that her brother was that way inclined and it is not like there is any record of him having converted ergo he was born that way and thus so must she have been. to have willfully hid this from the masses is deceit at the worst level and does not bode well that there was some sort of benevolent reason for keeping it quiet. and if we were in a parallel universe and it was the other way round aka a catholic heir to throne secretly marrying a protestant i would still be making an issue about it.

      as for the eu and common purpose- you know those vermin training people to be leaders in the post democratic age you might want to consider they are partners with the duke of edinburgh’s commonwealth study conferences http://www.cscleaders.org now is that a case of keeping your enemies close or is it something else?

      Like

  16. 42
    Sue Denim says:

    Guido – if you drew your graph the way you normally do (with a base line of about 40%), only the Conservatives would be on it.

    Like

  17. 43
    Owen Jones says:

    The Guardian receptionist just asked me if I was here for work experience.
    I said,
    “I’ve never experienced work and that’s the way I’d like to keep it thank you”
    She laughed but I wasn’t joking.

    Like

    • 64
      Owen Jones's mum says:

      Owen, darling, there’s a very sticky bedsheet in your room that needs putting into the washing basket if you’re feeling up to it, darling. I’m sorry but I’m very busy shopping for fishfingers for your tea but I’ll bring you some sherbert dips to make up for it.

      Like

  18. 44
    Fuddle_Duddle says:

    If the Cons managed to find a stupid, feminist blockhead even she would have trouble in laying waste a 16K majority on an improving economy ticket.
    Yes I did say “She”.
    Anyone care to answer why?

    Like

  19. 47
    The US Forest Service says:

    We prefer a scattershot approach to advertising.

    Like

  20. 57
    Nigel Farage says:

    Who do you think has taken our country? And where?!

    Like

  21. 62
    Fruitcake, swivel eyed loon, closet racist and proud of it says:

    I’m just waiting for the 1st Tory MP to break ranks and try to defect to UKIP. I say try as I’d hope Farage would tell him/her to feck off.

    Like

  22. 63
    God's holy trousers says:

    Ho, ho, ho.

    Like

  23. 65
    Bob Crow says:

    I’d vote UKIP if I had my time again.

    Like

    • 68
      London Underground appeasers says:

      Time-and-a-half, Bob?
      Certainly.

      And a day off in lieu. just don’t make a fuss before our short-term bonuses are calculated

      Like

  24. 69
    The People's Army says:

    Bring it on Toffs!

    Like

  25. 72
    The typically ignorand Euan or will or any other of the Labour parachutists says:

    I think that this is a safe seat for me.

    Like

  26. 73

    UKIP shouldn’t get too excited by this for the reasons here: http://order-order.com/2014/04/14/mercer-by-election-speculation-growing/
    They didn’t do too well in 2013, but, who knows if they start campaigning vigorously.

    Like

    • 89
      The Great British Public says:

      The Tories have forgotten how to campaign because many of their supporters at grass roots have left.

      This by election will ruffle a few feathers at CCHQ… Could it lead to Cameron being ousted or will the Tories continue to walk over the cliff like lemmings…

      My monies on the cliff.

      Like


Seen Elsewhere

What Will Happen if Scots Leave? | David Aaronovitch
Why Are Radicals Like Carswell Leaving Tories? | BBC
Danczuk: Rotherham Abuse Imported From Pakistan | Telegraph
Ashya King Case Shows How Authorities Get it Wrong | ConHome
The Carswell Show | Jon Craig
Cops Seized Journalist’s Phone to Out Whistleblower | Press Gazette
Chuka’s £2,500 Tax Avoidance Donation | Times
Another BBC Stitch Up? | David Keighley
Divided, Pessimistic Tories Expect Defeat | Alex Wickham
Labour Suspends Rotherham Council Members | Sky
PM Used Terror Crisis to Deflect From Carswell | Rachel Sylvester


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