LibDem Poll Spin: Clegg Actually Lost 65%-28%

LibDem press office is trying to spin its way out of last night’s 22 point thumping, selectively quoting three lines of YouGov pollster Peter Kellner’s methodology to suggest the results were unfair on Clegg:

Yet if you look at Kellner’s reasoning in full rather than the heavily edited LibDem version, if YouGov had done what the LibDems wanted and not “skewed” the poll Farage would have actually beaten Clegg 65% to 28%:

“An alternative approach would have been NOT to have corrected the political skew among our original 3,000 sample. The argument for doing this is that any assessment of audience reaction should take the audience as it is – in this case, accepting that UKIP supporters were much more likely to watch or listen to the debate than supporters of other parties. Had we done this, I estimate that the verdict of the audience would have been Farage 65%, Clegg 28%. Those who prefer to cite this figure, rather than to adjust for the UKIP-rich nature of the audience, are of course free to do so.”

A spectacular trajectory of toys from pram.



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

GuidoFawkes Quote of the Day

Labour’s Austin Mitchell muses on the campaign:

“What’s the problem? No use pointing at the leader. Too late to change and unnecessary for Miliband is doing well at Question Time. His problem is connecting with the real world. He doesn`t speak people and his protective team of naive kids are playing West Wing rather than letting the leader relate to real people. We could point at the party, shrunk in numbers and enthusiasm because everything, from policy formulation to candidate selection, comes top down rather than bubbling up from below so campaigning becomes the opium of members deprived of any real role, though they`re not even sure what they’re campaigning about, with or for, but its role is marginal.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Page 3 Totty Back in Print Page 3 Totty Back in Print
Martin Freeman on Private Healthcare Martin Freeman on Private Healthcare
GREENPEACE POLL: MAJORITY OF PEOPLE WANT FRACKING GREENPEACE POLL: MAJORITY OF PEOPLE WANT FRACKING
#Guido4Bucks #Guido4Bucks
FANCY DEPORTING FARAGE? FANCY DEPORTING FARAGE?
GUARDIAN ELECTION DEBATE MASH-UP GUARDIAN ELECTION DEBATE MASH-UP

Chuka Flashback: People Like Zero-Hours Contracts Chuka Flashback: People Like Zero-Hours Contracts
SMART METER PROGRAMME’S DIGITAL ACTIVITY WASTE SMART METER PROGRAMME’S DIGITAL ACTIVITY WASTE
MASK SLIPS FROM GREENPEACE ‘HEALTH CHARITY’ FRONT MASK SLIPS FROM GREENPEACE ‘HEALTH CHARITY’ FRONT
PM Gets Last Word On Thursday PM Gets Last Word On Thursday
FOXY BARONESS’ WEBSITE BORKED FOXY BARONESS’ WEBSITE BORKED
Labour: The Party of Benefits Labour: The Party of Benefits
GOVERNMENT DIGITAL SERVICE BEATS MICROSOFT INTO SUBMISSION GOVERNMENT DIGITAL SERVICE BEATS MICROSOFT INTO SUBMISSION
EUROPOL CHIEF: SNAPCHAT GREATEST TERRORIST THREAT EUROPOL CHIEF: SNAPCHAT GREATEST TERRORIST THREAT
Sky News Ballot Ballad Sky News Ballot Ballad
WATCH: UKIP Pledge Card Revealed WATCH: UKIP Pledge Card Revealed
Mini Wars Mini Wars
OZZIE NUMPTY EMAILS DAVID CAMERON’S PASSPORT NUMBER TO ASIAN FOOTBALLERS OZZIE NUMPTY EMAILS DAVID CAMERON’S PASSPORT NUMBER TO ASIAN FOOTBALLERS
Hell? Yes Hell? Yes
Cameron’s Last Speech in Downing Street (Before the Election) Cameron’s Last Speech in Downing Street (Before the Election)
Free Sun Advertising On the BBC Free Sun Advertising On the BBC
Downing Street Fighting Like Cats and Dogs Downing Street Fighting Like Cats and Dogs
Lucy Powell Falls Apart Under Questioning Lucy Powell Falls Apart Under Questioning
Feminist Jazz Hands Explained Feminist Jazz Hands Explained
WALTER MITTY CV OF ANTI-FRACKING CANDIDATE WALTER MITTY CV OF ANTI-FRACKING CANDIDATE
Cassetteboy v Cameron and Farage Cassetteboy v Cameron and Farage
MICROSOFT SHAKES DOWN PUBLIC SECTOR FOR DOSH MICROSOFT SHAKES DOWN PUBLIC SECTOR FOR DOSH
WATCH: Toby Young Skewers Labour Zero Hours Contract Attack Line WATCH: Toby Young Skewers Labour Zero Hours Contract Attack Line
MAIL TRICKED INTO QUOTING BATMAN FILM IN PLANE CRASH COVERAGE MAIL TRICKED INTO QUOTING BATMAN FILM IN PLANE CRASH COVERAGE
ANTI-FRACKING PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATE WANTED TO WORK FOR FRACKERS ANTI-FRACKING PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATE WANTED TO WORK FOR FRACKERS