UKIP are having a tougher time than they expected in the Manchester by-election today, compared to their breakthrough in places like Rotherham. On the back of the latest polls, full expectation management seems to have finally kicked in and the narrative is about being neck and neck for third with the Tories. Meanwhile friends of Nigel Farage are a little more bullish, predicting they will come second with 18% of the vote. The LibDems might lose their deposit…