Data Shows Cost-of-Living Crisis About to End

The consensus of broadsheet pundits is that Ed has, with his cost-of-living crisis line that prices are rising faster than wages, nimbly and cleverly switched from a losing argument on the economy to a winning “retail offer”. Guido thinks this successfully plays into the British national psyche; grumbling about both the weather and the cost of things rising. However as the economy rises unemployment falls and earnings will caeteris paribus begin to outstrip inflation as sure as the sun rises. The ONS data shows this is about to happen…

cpi-v-median-earnings

Guido is beginning to worry that Miliband, like his former mentor Gordon Brown, hasn’t really got a strategy. The whole “too far, too fast” thing was bound to end in tears unless there was a permanent recession. As it happened the predictions by Ed Balls of a triple-dip turned out to be über-pessimistic, statisticians say there wasn’t even a double-dip. The only recession the UK suffered originated under Gordon Brown.

The energy cost argument still generates headlines, however international comparisons show that UK energy costs are middle of the league table for Europe – though US fracking and shale gas means their energy costs are way below ours. Fracking however is opposed by Ed Miliband.

What then? Having lost the argument on debt and the economy, followed – food banks notwithstanding – by the cost-of-living crisis evaporating, Labour will have to change tack again. Labour can’t fight on economic competence, because so contaminated is Ed Balls that he even loses to George Osborne. Labour are blamed for the economic mess and are suspected by the voters of still being untrustworthy on dealing with the deficit and debts. They would be unwise to fight on leadership; “weak and weird” Ed versus “posh and out of touch” Dave is not a great prospect for Labour.

Guido’s guess is they will try to have it both ways, partially accept the coalition’s spending envelope and pretend they can tax their way to prosperity. A policy Miliband’s socialist frère Hollande has now abandoned. All the chatter (spun by his adviser Stewart Wood) about Ed’s plans for “big changes in our economy” – a strategy based on East Coast academic theories from Harvard professors on new “Varieties of Capitalism” – will have Lynton Crosby crying with laughter into his (Australian) Chardonnay. Doesn’t mean Miliband isn’t going to try it…

UPDATE: The FT has surveyed economists and they mostly think households will start to feel better off – this is after consumer confidence surged 20% in 2013. Well spotted economists…

ft-survey-economists




Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Recently unresigned Sarah Champion on Corbyn:

“Jeremys [sic] position is no longer tenable if we’re to be effective”

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Trump 5% Ahead of Clinton Trump 5% Ahead of Clinton
LILY COLE FRONTS BBC “CEO SECRETS” SERIES AFTER RUNNING COMPANY INTO GROUND LILY COLE FRONTS BBC “CEO SECRETS” SERIES AFTER RUNNING COMPANY INTO GROUND
Guardian Media Group’s Losses Total £173 Million Guardian Media Group’s Losses Total £173 Million
MCGINN WHIPPED LABOUR MPS TO “KEEP UP THE PRESSURE ON JC” MCGINN WHIPPED LABOUR MPS TO “KEEP UP THE PRESSURE ON JC”
VICTORIA’S SECRET LINGERIE AND 5 STAR HOTELS: WELSH GOVT’S £7.5 MILLION CREDIT CARD SPEND VICTORIA’S SECRET LINGERIE AND 5 STAR HOTELS: WELSH GOVT’S £7.5 MILLION CREDIT CARD SPEND
OWEN SMITH HIRES TOP PFIZER LOBBYIST TO RUN CAMPAIGN OWEN SMITH HIRES TOP PFIZER LOBBYIST TO RUN CAMPAIGN
HAMMOND FIBS AND SAUDI SLAVERY SLIPPED OUT ON DUMPING DAY HAMMOND FIBS AND SAUDI SLAVERY SLIPPED OUT ON DUMPING DAY
MATTHEW ELLIOTT ON WHY LEAVE WON MATTHEW ELLIOTT ON WHY LEAVE WON
OSBORNE GIVEN “SH*T” ROOM WITH NO VIEW OSBORNE GIVEN “SH*T” ROOM WITH NO VIEW
5,000,000 SIGNATURES: FEW POLICY CHANGES 5,000,000 SIGNATURES: FEW POLICY CHANGES
CORBYNISTAS USED CODE TO HIDE CASH-FOR-VOTES PLOT CORBYNISTAS USED CODE TO HIDE CASH-FOR-VOTES PLOT
First Lady Michelle Obama Carpool Karaoke First Lady Michelle Obama Carpool Karaoke
PMQ’s Sketch PMQ’s Sketch
How to Reach Westminster Politicians How to Reach Westminster Politicians
OWEN SMITH’S 999 EMERGENCY OWEN SMITH’S 999 EMERGENCY
MELANIA BORROWS FROM MICHELLE MELANIA BORROWS FROM MICHELLE
MAY: I WOULD PRESS NUCLEAR BUTTON MAY: I WOULD PRESS NUCLEAR BUTTON
New Uber Rival Tries to Get Unions Onside New Uber Rival Tries to Get Unions Onside
SMITH’S £200 BILION “NEW DEAL” PLEDGE BUSTED BY MCDONNELL SMITH’S £200 BILION “NEW DEAL” PLEDGE BUSTED BY MCDONNELL