Data Shows Cost-of-Living Crisis About to End

The consensus of broadsheet pundits is that Ed has, with his cost-of-living crisis line that prices are rising faster than wages, nimbly and cleverly switched from a losing argument on the economy to a winning “retail offer”. Guido thinks this successfully plays into the British national psyche; grumbling about both the weather and the cost of things rising. However as the economy rises unemployment falls and earnings will caeteris paribus begin to outstrip inflation as sure as the sun rises. The ONS data shows this is about to happen…

cpi-v-median-earnings

Guido is beginning to worry that Miliband, like his former mentor Gordon Brown, hasn’t really got a strategy. The whole “too far, too fast” thing was bound to end in tears unless there was a permanent recession. As it happened the predictions by Ed Balls of a triple-dip turned out to be über-pessimistic, statisticians say there wasn’t even a double-dip. The only recession the UK suffered originated under Gordon Brown.

The energy cost argument still generates headlines, however international comparisons show that UK energy costs are middle of the league table for Europe – though US fracking and shale gas means their energy costs are way below ours. Fracking however is opposed by Ed Miliband.

What then? Having lost the argument on debt and the economy, followed – food banks notwithstanding – by the cost-of-living crisis evaporating, Labour will have to change tack again. Labour can’t fight on economic competence, because so contaminated is Ed Balls that he even loses to George Osborne. Labour are blamed for the economic mess and are suspected by the voters of still being untrustworthy on dealing with the deficit and debts. They would be unwise to fight on leadership; “weak and weird” Ed versus “posh and out of touch” Dave is not a great prospect for Labour.

Guido’s guess is they will try to have it both ways, partially accept the coalition’s spending envelope and pretend they can tax their way to prosperity. A policy Miliband’s socialist frère Hollande has now abandoned. All the chatter (spun by his adviser Stewart Wood) about Ed’s plans for “big changes in our economy” – a strategy based on East Coast academic theories from Harvard professors on new “Varieties of Capitalism” – will have Lynton Crosby crying with laughter into his (Australian) Chardonnay. Doesn’t mean Miliband isn’t going to try it…

UPDATE: The FT has surveyed economists and they mostly think households will start to feel better off – this is after consumer confidence surged 20% in 2013. Well spotted economists…

ft-survey-economists



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

GuidoFawkes Quote of the Day

Boris tells the Sun:

“I think it’s a measure of his desperation, isn’t it, that yesterday we had one of the most absurd political spectacles that this country has ever seen. Not since the Tsar and Tsarina prostrated themselves and asked for economic guidance from Grigori Rasputin, has there been such a ridiculous political pilgrimages as the mission of Ed Miliband – the heir of Keir Hardie for heavens sake – to seek economic guidance from Russell Brand.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

Labour’s Sex Segregated Rally Labour’s Sex Segregated Rally
MICHAEL GOVE SLAMS BBC FOR #EVERYDAYSEXISM MICHAEL GOVE SLAMS BBC FOR #EVERYDAYSEXISM
DEAR C OF E, IF GOD DIDN’T WANT US TO BURN COAL, HE WOULDN’T HAVE PUT SO MUCH OF IT IN THE GROUND DEAR C OF E, IF GOD DIDN’T WANT US TO BURN COAL, HE WOULDN’T HAVE PUT SO MUCH OF IT IN THE GROUND
MiliFandom: The Movie MiliFandom: The Movie
WATCH: Labour Double Down on Overspending Denial WATCH: Labour Double Down on Overspending Denial
Miliband: We Didn’t Overspend Miliband: We Didn’t Overspend

WATCH: The Trip WATCH: The Trip
GOLDMAN SACHS BACKS BITCOIN GOLDMAN SACHS BACKS BITCOIN
WATCH A TESLA SMOKE THE 707HP DODGE CHALLENGER HELLCAT WATCH A TESLA SMOKE THE 707HP DODGE CHALLENGER HELLCAT
The Banned Poster Lefties Don’t Want You to See The Banned Poster Lefties Don’t Want You to See
Loony Greens Deface UKIP Adverts Loony Greens Deface UKIP Adverts
ENERGY MINISTER TOTTY WATCH CONTINUED ENERGY MINISTER TOTTY WATCH CONTINUED
Diane Abbott’s Insult to Mid-Staffs Diane Abbott’s Insult to Mid-Staffs
The Sun Opposes Labour The Sun Opposes Labour
APPLE PILLAGE THE BEEB APPLE PILLAGE THE BEEB
Another Day, Another Biased BBC Website Another Day, Another Biased BBC Website
NUCLEAR TOTTY NUCLEAR TOTTY
GCHQ ORDERED TO DESTROY ILEGALLY OBTAINED DOCS GCHQ ORDERED TO DESTROY ILEGALLY OBTAINED DOCS
Biased BBC Dodge Hodge Story Biased BBC Dodge Hodge Story