December 5th, 2013

OBR’s Election Gift to Tories, Maybe

Good unemployment and growth news from those always reliable soothsayers, the Office for Budget Responsibility. They reckon unemployment will fall from 7.6% to 7% in 2015, then again to 5.6% by 2018. Which means that Mark Carney’s “threshold” for changing interest rate policy will not be crossed this side of an election.

Growth for this year is more than doubled to 1.4% from 0.6%, also up next year to 2.4% from 1.8%. (Worth noting that in 2010 the OBR thought 2013 growth would hit nearly 3%, in March this year dropped it to 0.6%, and they have now put it back up again). Do keep up.

So Osborne claims his government is fixing the roof while the sun is shining and the numbers sort of back him up. But they might be wrong, or maybe not. Ask them again in a year’s time.

Regardless of the tinkering, the Government will borrow £111 billion this year, just shy of £10 billion less than predicted in March. We will still be borrowing £96 billion next year; then £79 billion, £51 billion and £23 billion in the subsequent years. Osborne claims we will be in the black by 2018/19, in the latter half of the next parliament. An OBR provided election slogan right there: don’t let Labour ruin it etcetera. Convenient!


31 Comments

  1. 1
    The Form says:

    Has the OBR got one prediction right yet?

    Like

    • 12
      and come the next recession says:

      No economic fire power left to ride the next one.

      All consumed by Brown/Balls/Miliband legacy and continuity Brown Economics.
      Well done Ken Clarke for keeping Brown in check. Pity it happened. Brown/Blair would have been firmly kick out by 2005.

      We have recessions about every ten years. They cause big harm and force us to sort out some of the bad parts of the economy. Have we done that this time? Don’t think so.

      Like

      • 31
        Osama the Nazarene says:

        The flaw in this plan is that the OBR have not been correct about anything. So we could well be into another recession before the roof is fixed.

        Like

  2. 2
    nellnewman. says:

    Well the principle is right – just not far enough or fast enough yet!

    Like

  3. 3
    nellnewman. says:

    Oh and bullyballs was made to look foolish and inept , which he is, so that’s good.

    Like

  4. 4
    Has Abbott Defected? says:

    Like

  5. 5
    Michael Meacher says:

    I’m a property millionaire paid for by the taxpayer, so you can all f’uck off.

    Like

  6. 6

    Osborne claims we will be in the black by 2018/19.

    That is just the deficit. It is no more than the direction in which the increase in debt is heading.

    There remains the debt itself. Our gift to our great, great, great, grandchildren. What about dealing with that?

    Like

  7. 8
    Coeur_de_lion says:

    I just hope that the electorate give the Tories an opportunity to run the next parliament, so we can see what they can really do without the Lib-Dem lead weight around their necks.

    A full parliament to take a proper run at the real problems, and not shite like school dinners. I think Osbourne has on the most part hit the right note in saying ‘let’s keep going’. The idea of Labour sneaking in and taking us backwards gives me nightmares.

    Like

    • 20
      Cast-Iron Guarantee says:

      Won’t happen. The Conservatives will not win outright.

      On Cameron’s showing so far, many potential Conservative voters simply will not back him.

      I suspect anyway that Cameron would prefer another coalition. May not get that either.

      Like

  8. 10
    Winning for Britain says:

    George Osbourne is winning for Britain

    Like

    • 17
      Keitho says:

      Yes he is. Let’s hope he is allowed to be all he can be because so far he is showing great character and seems bigger than his job.

      Ed Balls was an embarrassment. Labour and the lunatic left will destroy our country if they get back in.

      Like

  9. 10
    Doris Goldblatt says:

    David Cameron on train after I asked him to move his bag off seat: “Why don’t you grab my cock?” Me: “I didn’t bring any tweezers.”

    Like

  10. 14
    Axe The Telly Tax &Religion & Kill All Eco-loons says:

    Can’t be long before the SUN headline of “Miliband Has Balls Out” :-)

    Like

  11. 18
    Hell for Leather says:

    Guido says: ‘Mark Carney’s “threshold” for changing interest rate policy will not be crossed this side of an election.’

    That will ensure many older voters, whose hard-earned savings are being trashed under this government by artificially depressed savings rates and inflation, will not vote Conservative.

    Like

    • 22
      HEARDITALLSEENITALLBEFORE says:

      We are all voting UKIP now, whatever Cameron says [,so are our sons, daughters , nieces, and nephews].

      Like

      • 26
        Will says:

        don’t worry that nice mr milliband will get in and raise interest rates for you to say 7% but never mind inflation of 15% which will erode the real value of your savings faster than you can say.

        That’s what high inflation did in the 70′s to many savers.

        Vote UKIP get labour

        Like

  12. 23
    Heidi Alexander MP says:

    I just asked George Osborne a really stupid question.

    Like

  13. 27
    Baldrick's burger bar says:

    Hour after hour of telly waffle bollox about pensions – but not one word along the lines that most of us had good solid pensions that would have kept us in old age – and free from state handouts – but some cvnt called Brown stole them and watered the wall with the proceeds. Media folk and left wing commentators appear to have very short (if any) memories.

    Like

  14. 29
    Ballox Economics says:

    It has been a hard slog trying to put right Labour’s mess.

    Like


Seen Elsewhere

UKIP Reshuffles | James Forsyth
David Ruffley’s Future Under Discussion by Tories | BBC
The LibDem’s Jewish Problem | Jeremy Brier
Israeli Ambassador’s Letter to Clegg | Twitter
What Became of Cameron’s Big Society Network? | Indy
SpAd Reshuffle | PR Week
Clegg Under Pressure to Expel Ward | Telegraph
Labour’s Teachers Trained in the Art of Brainwashing | Jago Pearson
R.I.P. John Blundell, Former IEA Director General | Atlas
UKIP Hasn’t Gone Away | ConHome
Ward: I’d Be a Terrorist if I Lived in Gaza | Breitbart


new-advert
Westbourne-Change-Opinion Guido-hot-button (1)


Sarah Vine writes of Esther McVey…

“McVey told Grazia that she hasn’t married or had children because she ‘never found anyone to wind her biological clock’ … If I remember rightly, half the current Cabinet would have cheerfully ‘wound her clock’ if she’d given them a glimmer of a chance.”



Flight Watch says:

Russia Today is a cauldron of bullsh*t. The only people that take it seriously are deluded conspiracy theorists. Other RT journos have resigned citing the same reasons.

It’s about as believable as Press TV, KCNA of North Korea or the Daily Mirror.


Tip off Guido
Web Guido's Archives

Subscribe me to:






RSS




AddThis Feed Button
Archive


Labels
Guido Reads