December 5th, 2013

OBR’s Election Gift to Tories, Maybe

Good unemployment and growth news from those always reliable soothsayers, the Office for Budget Responsibility. They reckon unemployment will fall from 7.6% to 7% in 2015, then again to 5.6% by 2018. Which means that Mark Carney’s “threshold” for changing interest rate policy will not be crossed this side of an election.

Growth for this year is more than doubled to 1.4% from 0.6%, also up next year to 2.4% from 1.8%. (Worth noting that in 2010 the OBR thought 2013 growth would hit nearly 3%, in March this year dropped it to 0.6%, and they have now put it back up again). Do keep up.

So Osborne claims his government is fixing the roof while the sun is shining and the numbers sort of back him up. But they might be wrong, or maybe not. Ask them again in a year’s time.

Regardless of the tinkering, the Government will borrow £111 billion this year, just shy of £10 billion less than predicted in March. We will still be borrowing £96 billion next year; then £79 billion, £51 billion and £23 billion in the subsequent years. Osborne claims we will be in the black by 2018/19, in the latter half of the next parliament. An OBR provided election slogan right there: don’t let Labour ruin it etcetera. Convenient!


  1. 1
    The Form says:

    Has the OBR got one prediction right yet?


    • 12
      and come the next recession says:

      No economic fire power left to ride the next one.

      All consumed by Brown/Balls/Miliband legacy and continuity Brown Economics.
      Well done Ken Clarke for keeping Brown in check. Pity it happened. Brown/Blair would have been firmly kick out by 2005.

      We have recessions about every ten years. They cause big harm and force us to sort out some of the bad parts of the economy. Have we done that this time? Don’t think so.


      • 31
        Osama the Nazarene says:

        The flaw in this plan is that the OBR have not been correct about anything. So we could well be into another recession before the roof is fixed.


  2. 2
    nellnewman. says:

    Well the principle is right – just not far enough or fast enough yet!


  3. 3
    nellnewman. says:

    Oh and bullyballs was made to look foolish and inept , which he is, so that’s good.


  4. 4
    Has Abbott Defected? says:


  5. 5
    Michael Meacher says:

    I’m a property millionaire paid for by the taxpayer, so you can all f’uck off.


  6. 6

    Osborne claims we will be in the black by 2018/19.

    That is just the deficit. It is no more than the direction in which the increase in debt is heading.

    There remains the debt itself. Our gift to our great, great, great, grandchildren. What about dealing with that?


  7. 8
    Coeur_de_lion says:

    I just hope that the electorate give the Tories an opportunity to run the next parliament, so we can see what they can really do without the Lib-Dem lead weight around their necks.

    A full parliament to take a proper run at the real problems, and not shite like school dinners. I think Osbourne has on the most part hit the right note in saying ‘let’s keep going’. The idea of Labour sneaking in and taking us backwards gives me nightmares.


    • 20
      Cast-Iron Guarantee says:

      Won’t happen. The Conservatives will not win outright.

      On Cameron’s showing so far, many potential Conservative voters simply will not back him.

      I suspect anyway that Cameron would prefer another coalition. May not get that either.


  8. 10
    Winning for Britain says:

    George Osbourne is winning for Britain


    • 17
      Keitho says:

      Yes he is. Let’s hope he is allowed to be all he can be because so far he is showing great character and seems bigger than his job.

      Ed Balls was an embarrassment. Labour and the lunatic left will destroy our country if they get back in.


  9. 10
    Doris Goldblatt says:

    David Cameron on train after I asked him to move his bag off seat: “Why don’t you grab my cock?” Me: “I didn’t bring any tweezers.”


  10. 14
    Axe The Telly Tax &Religion & Kill All Eco-loons says:

    Can’t be long before the SUN headline of “Miliband Has Balls Out” :-)


  11. 18
    Hell for Leather says:

    Guido says: ‘Mark Carney’s “threshold” for changing interest rate policy will not be crossed this side of an election.’

    That will ensure many older voters, whose hard-earned savings are being trashed under this government by artificially depressed savings rates and inflation, will not vote Conservative.


    • 22

      We are all voting UKIP now, whatever Cameron says [,so are our sons, daughters , nieces, and nephews].


      • 26
        Will says:

        don’t worry that nice mr milliband will get in and raise interest rates for you to say 7% but never mind inflation of 15% which will erode the real value of your savings faster than you can say.

        That’s what high inflation did in the 70’s to many savers.

        Vote UKIP get labour


  12. 23
    Heidi Alexander MP says:

    I just asked George Osborne a really stupid question.


  13. 27
    Baldrick's burger bar says:

    Hour after hour of telly waffle bollox about pensions – but not one word along the lines that most of us had good solid pensions that would have kept us in old age – and free from state handouts – but some cvnt called Brown stole them and watered the wall with the proceeds. Media folk and left wing commentators appear to have very short (if any) memories.


  14. 29
    Ballox Economics says:

    It has been a hard slog trying to put right Labour’s mess.


Seen Elsewhere

Why Pollsters Could Be Wrong | John McDermott
Cameron Faces Vote of No Confidence or Rebellion | FT
Cameron Faces Revolt Over ‘Vow’ | Sun
It’s Time to Speak for England | John Redwood
It Was Me Who Taped Howard Flight | John Woodcock
Indy Editor: We Will Stay Afloat | Press Gazette
English Don’t Want Scotland to Stay at Any Price | Dan Hodges
England Must Have Self-Government Too | Mark Wallace
Next Year’s Election Will Be the Dirtiest Ever | Speccie
Chicken Salmond Runs Away From Sun Cabbie | Sun
Scary No Messages Don’t Add Up | Sun

Find out more about PLMR

Gyles Brandreth writes in his memoirs:

“Sunday, May 10, 1998

Early start: appearing on Breakfast With Frost, to be broadcast from 11 Downing Street. The Chancellor [Gordon Brown] is grouchily amiable, but so earnest — and still biting his fingernails to the quick.

After the show, he took us upstairs to his flat. He lives above No 10, while Blair and family are in the No 11 duplex, which is bigger and more like a proper house.

I was intrigued that, when he took us into his bedroom, the Chancellor rather ostentatiously opened the built-in wardrobes, as if he wanted us to see the women’s frocks that were hanging in there.

They looked quite large, but I don’t think they belong to Gordon. I assume they belong to his girlfriend [Sarah Macaulay, who he later married].

I presume he was keen for us to know that he has one — and that she’s not a ‘beard’. I don’t think he does anything without calculation.”

The British media are Hunts says:

Now the SNP know how UKIP voters feel all the time.

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