Labour and the Tories are neck and neck with UKIP trailing off in this morning’s ICM poll for the Guardian. Though as Mike Smithson explains ICM was the pollster most out with UKIP at the 2009 Euros, where it undershot their result by 6.5% and had them in fourth place when they came second. Also worth taking into account that at the weekend Survation had UKIP on 20%, Opinium on 19% and ComRes on 18%. Still, who knew union bashing and welfare reform was so popular?