On Sky just now was a talking head “expert” who claimed “I was like every other analyst and everyone in the Westminster village”. Lorna Dunkley saw straight through him.

Whereas Guido will be enjoying a glass or two this evening after comfortably winning his bet – as tipped to blog readers – on UKIP to win more than 50 seats. Political academic and amateur clairvoyant Matthew Goodwin’s crystal ball was clearly faulty, despite the fact that he markets himself as an expert on UKIP. Inside UKIP circles he is widely detested, possibly because he writes punditry for the Guardian where he seeks to bracket UKIP with the BNP. Armed with his wealth of scholarly insight, Goodwin piped up and rubbished Guido’s tip yesterday:

@GuidoFawkes the smart money is on them not topping 50

— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) April 30, 2013

@GuidoFawkes show me where those 50 seats are coming from? I'm taking 15/8 at Ladbrokes for under 50

— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) April 30, 2013

Three days later and UKIP are set to win more than 100 seats. Goodwin is off doing the rounds of studios this afternoon talking about “UKIP, predictions and what happens next in British politics”. With pundits like him…