May 3rd, 2013

Smart Money is on Matthew Goodwin to Get it Wrong

On Sky just now was a talking head “expert” who claimed “I was like every other analyst and everyone in the Westminster village”. Lorna Dunkley saw straight through him:

Whereas Guido will be enjoying a glass or two this evening after comfortably winning his bet – as tipped to blog readers – on UKIP to win more than 50 seats. Political academic and amateur clairvoyant Matthew Goodwin’s crystal ball was clearly faulty, despite the fact that he markets himself as an expert on UKIP. Inside UKIP circles he is widely detested, possibly because he writes punditry for the Guardian where he seeks to bracket UKIP with the BNP. Armed with his wealth of scholarly insight, Goodwin piped up and rubbished Guido’s tip yesterday:

Three days later and UKIP are set to win more than 100 seats. Goodwin is off doing the rounds of studios this afternoon talking about “UKIP, predictions and what happens next in British politics”. With pundits like him…


171 Comments

  1. 1
    A Reasonable Man says:

    So, he was wrong. Nothing wrong with someone with being wrong. No crime.

    However, he ought to change his career. He is not an expert.

    Like

    • 3
      Guardianistas do't do wrong says:

      And no doubt he will sit in the studios keeping a straight face.

      Like

      • 13
        A Reasonable Man says:

        Which will keep everybody amused and help to confound the enemies of UKIP if they are stupid enough to seek his advice.

        Like

        • 24
          The lefty Spinners a spanner says:

          These smug self serving toadies imagine themselves to be smarter than anyone else. Yet time and again, they are confounded by events they never saw coming and understand even less afterwards.

          Like

        • 55
          Ed Moribund says:

          predicted the Grillo party in Italy to get 2%.
          But he said I’d get 300 new seats, not the 100 I actually am getting.

          I find comfort in his predictions.

          Like

      • 52
        Jim says:

        Is he related to Fred Goodwin?

        Like

    • 16
      Kid Gloves says:

      Go easy on him Guido. He looks younger than Owen Jones.

      Like

    • 19
      Peter Martin says:

      “Goodwin is off to do the rounds of studios”

      OK, I can see one was SKY, and he got nailed, so which other broadcasters feel this person is worthy of bringing to the nation’s screens to get it about wrong?

      It seems rather odd to immediately call in someone with such a track record surely?

      Is his value less offering insights into what is likely, or as a useful idiot to put forward to push what supposedly impartial media would like to be in face of reality?

      Like

    • 27
      Lord Stansted says:

      Did Goodwin do the UN climate change predictions too?

      Like

    • 30
      117 and rising says:

      UKIP have now shot through the century. 117

      He could not have been more wrong.

      Oh and well done to Guido.

      Like

  2. 2
    Kebab Time says:

    UKIP do have the same attitude to BNP on immigration to be fair.

    Stealing our jobs bullshit etc.

    Like

    • 60
      CarryHole is a vile Hunt says:

      So Supply has no effect on price?

      Any more economic rubbish you’re going to spout today?

      Like

    • 82
      THE Job Free Zone. says:

      .
      idle rich are just that … job free. instead of listening 2 the airwaves, consider
      the truth in the shadow.
      .
      with the rays of the sun behind you look at yer shadow…
      .
      position 1.
      keep arms by the side, i.e stay chilled, and stay united.
      .
      position 2
      hold the side of the waist by the arm..the gaia position of comfort..here a circle emerges…connecting the heart to the navel where the soul resides.
      .
      position 3
      hold the hands upto to the ears and see the eternal triangle of tension…between the strength in the arms and the rubbish entering our ears.
      .
      position 4
      it is hands up and reveals the number 11.
      1 plus 1 equaling 11. Submit to another in order to gain that person’s power.
      .
      Truth is out there but is not in the Job Free Zone.

      Like

    • 153
      White people don't vote Labour anymore says:

      You’re right there. Most of them don’t bother with jobs, and if they have a job it doesn’t pay enough tax to cover the expense to the nation of having them freeloading on our housing benefit and national healthcare schemes.

      Their sole purpose is to prop up the now entirely obsolete Labour Party which depends for 50% of its votes on ethnic minorities. Every year that goes by more indigenous Brits vow never to vote Labour again, so every year they find new ways to import more ethnic minorities to replace them. They’ve been forced to do this since the 80s. Every time someone complains about the impact of Labour’s gerrymandering the Labour Party and it acolytes in the media shout “Racist!” long and hard until they drown them out.

      The nation will pay a heavy price for Labour putting democracy into such disrepute.

      Like

  3. 4

    just tryin to scam u Guy.

    Like

    • 8
      il saggio capriccioso says:

      Well done Gweed hope you made a pile

      Matthew is obviously not a ” Good man ” today.
      In fact he is a wanker .

      Like

  4. 5
    Mystic Meg says:

    One lesson in political punditry – never make any political predictions.

    Cover all bases or else you end up looking like the BNP – both wrong and out of favour.

    Like

    • 105
      the answer to Mystic Meg... says:

      regardless of the question…the answer is:
      .
      wimmin should have a donga…strapped on.
      men should have it strapped in.
      .
      there is no other way for a man to have balls…i.e bigger balls.
      .
      the truth is out.

      Like

    • 126
      Sir William Wade says:

      Any fool can make a prediction. It doesn’t require skill, knowledge or foresight, but a big mouth.

      Like

      • 133
        Clueless Dave - the gift that keeps on giving says:

        No skill, knowledge or foresight?

        I’m your man.

        Like

  5. 6
    NICK ROBINSON says:

    Listen to me I know best.

    Like

  6. 7
    Ben says:

    What a nob.

    Like

    • 104
      Gerry Mandering says:

      22% – my arse.

      The nob in question is now Cast Iron Dave.

      My cast iron prediction is he will follow in the footsteps of previous PM and stick his fingers in his ears and sing “Lalalalalala”

      Like

  7. 9
    Meet the Presidents says:

    Like

    • 10
      The Wet Green Party says:

      We love you Rompuy x

      Like

    • 17
      A Reasonable Man says:

      Do I get a first class plane ticket and put up for the night in a brothel?

      Like

      • 21
        P.Mandevilson, the Eminence Greasy says:

        Yes, put it all on expenses. Nothing gets audited in the EU.

        Like

      • 28
        Thieves Cartel says:

        Why not? Twenty six billion went walkies last year, no questions asked, specially by the ‘onside’ BBC.

        Like

    • 33
      The BBC says:

      Thanks Herman. Can you drag it out so that our expenses take us through to Monday?

      Like

    • 37
      CarryHole is a vile Hunt says:

      “EU Institutions work” surely the greatest oxymoron ever.

      Like

    • 44
      Raving Loon says:

      How it works: we take your money, blow half of it on fat French farmers and dole the rest out to our mates and clusterf**k economies in the south and east.

      Like

    • 70
      Wyle Cop says:

      Admission: 500 Dollars. Euros not accepted.

      Like

  8. 11
    Old Timer says:

    All that education to become a Professor of Politics and it’s just a waste of time. Back down the coal mines for you son.

    Like

    • 35
      Max Clifford says:

      Matt is a prat and no amount of educashun can infuse him with a bit of common sense. He and his ilk are why UkIP exists.

      Like

  9. 12
    Tay King-dePisse says:

    I’ve heard it said that Political Science is the only academic discipline where everything you know eventually will be wrong. Looks like some fast-forward and get it wrong at the start.

    Like

    • 31
      Thieves Cartel says:

      Not true, ever heard of ‘climate science’?

      Like

    • 32
      Lord Stansted says:

      I think it’s split between ps and economics.

      Like

    • 131
      Sir William Wade says:

      ‘Political Science’ is an oxymoron. It is not a science because its theories do not make definite predictions that can be tested by making physical observations. Appropriately, the phrase ‘political science’ is a trick with words.

      Like

      • 136
        Clueless Dave - the gift that keeps on giving says:

        Nonsense.

        Those that study this rigorous academic discipline make excellent leaders.

        Follow me chaps!

        Like

  10. 14
    Matthew Goodwin says:

    The smart money is on under 50 comments on this story!!!

    Like

    • 59
      Catty Comment (Ms) says:

      Messieurs, ‘dames, faites vos jeux!

      Like

    • 80
      The public says:

      Whatever

      Like

    • 96
      Damon Runyon says:

      I said, “‘The race is not to the swift nor the battle to the strong [says the Bible],’ but that’s how smart money bets.”

      But you probably shoulda took the Bible’s word for it this go-round, Matthew. Do not bet against a man who tells you he can make the Jack of Spades spit cider. You will inevitably and indubitably wind up with a wet ear.

      Like

  11. 15
    Portfolio says:

    Oh those little faces, save the sheep, vote for Gay Marriage.

    Like

  12. 18
    Got a badger for a head says:

    Just chuckled at sky news thinking of your tweets with this guy.

    Like

  13. 22
    (I don't need no doctor) says:

    Ladbrokes – Game off.

    Like

  14. 25
    Hugh Bris says:

    Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

    Like

  15. 26

    Not one pundit/politician has taken notice of what the people are saying/want. In fact they just talk the same old bollocks. Will they ever learn?

    Like

    • 29
      A Shepherd says:

      Probably not. They will probably have to be pushed out in the end. Such is the way of the world. .

      Like

      • 76
        Ol' Crummy says:

        They are no Commentariat– they have nattered too long for any good they have been doing lately.

        Jugglers, whoremasters, drunkards, swindlers– and now, pundits.

        Like

    • 95
      Henry IV deceased says:

      Too many gold-plated retirements tied up in the status quo. Shepherd’s no doubt right.

      Like

  16. 38
    Anonymous says:

    I know this guy and he is really arrogant and mean!

    Like

  17. 41
    South Yorkshire Correspondent says:

    Liberals 7th in Doncaster Mayor first round vote. Oops.

    After
    Labour
    Independent
    English Democrats
    Independent
    Conservative
    Trade Unionists and Socialists against the Cuts

    Like

  18. 43
    Owen Jones says:

    UKIP is a racist, sexist homophobic party and should be banned.
    It is a British Golden Dawn.

    Like

  19. 45
    Concerned says:

    Should you be showing a photo of the boy Goodwin on this site without is parents permission, the one on screen looks like some kid of thirteen, not old enough to go into a betting shop and waste his pocket money.

    Like

  20. 48
    Owen Jones says:

    I fancy Matthew Godwin.

    Like

  21. 49
    keith says:

    so enjoyed nick Robinson on BBC, with his sneering attitude towards UKIP, I know he once wrote for the labour party, but come on nick your supposed to be independent now, oh I forgot you work for the BBC, leave Westminster and speak to real people you might learn something

    Like

    • 63
      Nick Robinson says:

      I cannot speak to real people. I don’t know how.

      Like

    • 65
      So it's said. says:

      Robinson was tory at uni.

      Like

      • 79
        (I don't need no doctor) says:

        ………and that is why he hates Cameron. Look on Wikipedia at Robinson’s background.

        Like

    • 68
      Rick Nobinson says:

      I did.
      I learned I can say what Ii like, be as wrong in my predictions as I like, and no one at the Beeb gives a toss. I could fiddle expenses, news or kiddies and they wouldn’t give a stuff.

      Just as long as I say ‘I hate Tories’ at every editorial, I’ve a job for life.

      Like

  22. 56
    Catty Comment (Ms) says:

    Was I the only one to witness that bubble-headed [Australian?] Greeny chairperson Natalie Bennett(?) saying how much we should value immigrants and that the same EU freedom to travel/work overseas rules apply for any Brits who want to go and work in Spain or Italy.

    Has she seen the current unemployment figures in just about all of the European countries? What work?

    The woman clearly has a watermelon instead of a head. Can’t she be ‘transported’ back whence she came?

    Like

    • 69

      As someone said when she was on QT the other week..#

      “The Greens held an open election to find their leader.
      Imagine how dreadful the other 4 candidates must have been if Bennett was the standout winner.”

      Like

      • 77
        Ed Moribund says:

        Well.the best candidate doesn’t always get the top job..trust me, I know.

        Like

        • 138
          Clueless Dave - the gift that keeps on giving says:

          Tell me about it.

          Like

          • Gordon the Medicated says:

            The best candidate .. what does that mean? Just kick heads and crush balls until the party faithful anoint you as leader.

            Like

      • 146
        Sir William Wade says:

        Her policies are made of 100% recycled material. She is fully biodegradable with a brain composed of unbleached wood pulp from renewable forestry. She has even had a catalytic converter fitted to her arse, to eliminate methane emissions. This woman has the tiny footprint of a Chinese princess.

        Like

    • 103
      Mole in the Department says:

      Only four days to work next week, this week research has shown that mega crime is being committed by the Romanian/Bulgarian immigrants already in Spain and that huge efforts are being made by Spain to transport them to Britain as soon as the gates (flood) open.

      Meanwhile we are no further forward in whittling down the figure of 1.9 million illegal immigrants already here and if Labour take over the asylum in 2015 then the Department will be under even less scrutiny than it is at the moment.

      Every time a new news event takes over the media the Managers high five each other as it means more respite from awkward questions. The public have finally tumbled to the fact that admitted immigration is half a million a year (plus all the rest) no matter how they try to spin it by talking about net immigration.

      Like

  23. 61
    ian says:

    cameron says he is going to try to win back those conservatives who voted ukip

    does that mean he will ditch gay marriage?

    Like

    • 64
      (I don't need no doctor) says:

      Are there no gay UKIP members or supporters that agree with gay marriage?

      Like

      • 91
        Raving Loon says:

        I’m not against gay marriage as such, I just dislike the government getting involved in the issue.

        Like

        • 102
          Anonymous says:

          They don’t have much else to occupy their time, it seems.

          Like

        • 107
          CarryHole is a vile Hunt says:

          UKIP is against the church being forced to sanctify something it disagrees with on it’s premises.

          Like

      • 110
        I Remember You Hoo says:

        I am a UKIP’er and quite frankly couldn’t give a toss whether some vicars want to marry gays.

        What I am utterly opposed to, is the state getting it’s oar in and using legal force to compel people who may have very strong beliefs, to go against them.

        Gay marriage should be a matter of conscience, not compulsion, in a free society.

        Like

    • 73
      any old crap says:

      How can he, it’s orders from his masters, the EU.

      Like

    • 92
      Result for Dave !!!! says:

      Apparently Cameron feels that he needs to attract the “Gay Vote” and also support of Guardian Readers although they are of course not necessarily the same thing but all he has accomplished is to lose thousands of his core vote who have defected to UKip and attracted 5 new supporters from the Guardian Readership…..

      Like

  24. 62
    (I don't need no doctor) says:

    I intend to become an expert. I know nothing so should do well.

    Like

  25. 67
    Nottingham politics student says:

    Once was in a lecture of his. It was a load of shit.

    Like

  26. 71
    Anonymous says:

    Do they pay him or is he someone’s friend?

    Like

  27. 78
    Owen Jones says:

    Are Guido Fawkes and Eric Pickles wearing the same tie?

    Like

  28. 86
    neitherdeadnoralive says:

    Why is someone who gets it so wrong allowed to be on telly as a “pundit” ??????????????????????????????????????????????

    Like

    • 101
      CarryHole is a vile Hunt says:

      Keynes is still classed as an economist.

      Like

    • 116
      labourunionsbbc are one under the EU says:

      You’ve got to remember that ‘off-air’ he talks their language.

      This is the same for all those socialist prats, jones, pol y, m oonbat et al, off-air they can, and do, all agree with eachother.

      Like

    • 117
      UKIP or bust says:

      You’ve got to remember that ‘off-air’ he talks their language.

      This is the same for all those social ist p rats, jones, poly, moonbat et al, off-air they can, and do, all agree with eachother.

      Like

  29. 89
    Michael Gove says:

    Lbaour gains Nottinghamshire from Conservatives <<Dyslexic gains control of Sky News Desk

    Like

  30. 99
    Smurfy says:

    I expected ukip to do well but not as well as they did. They have FUDed the Tories. The right looks divided & weak.

    Like

    • 127
      I Remember You Hoo says:

      UKIP are getting defectors from every main party. The voter stat’s will be very interesting.

      As for a divided right, you cannot be serious. Where are the voices of the authentic British right within the current Fauxservative party?
      The Tories decided long ago to abandon right wing ideas and policy, lurch left and gain absolutely zero lefty voters, in the process.

      Like

      • 132
        David Thatcher & Maggie Cameron says:

        Absolutely. Dave needs to Blue up. He is so out of touch with conservatism.

        Like

  31. 100
    Bazinga! says:

    Where as the BBC have trying to make out Labour had a great night, Sky are pointing out Labour are not doing well enough.

    Sky pointing out England often votes with a majority for the Tories, we’re dragged down by the Celts and their socialist obsessions.

    Also, I’ve noticed the BBC keep spouting Cameron’s comment about UKIP being closet racists and loonies.

    That’s how the BBC can call UKIP that but without actually getting their hands dirty. Just as they kept going on and on about a “senior Tory from the Thatcher era” when trying to link kiddie fiddling to the Tory party without any evidence.

    Like

    • 120
      labourunionsbbc are one under the EU says:

      I hear that with so many nonces at the bbc the police have decided to just put bars on the building.

      Like

    • 123
      UKIP or bust says:

      I hear that because there are so many nonces and tax fiddlers at the bbc, to save money the police have decided to just put bars on the building.

      Like

      • 143
        Bazinga! says:

        They might as well make it a primary school considering all the pervs who work there and are into little kids.

        Like

  32. 106
    neitherdeadnoralive says:

    I think either Labour or the Tories will win the next election…… or maybe it will be a hung Parliament…………… Can I now consider myself a “Political Pundit” ??

    Like

  33. 108
    Yellow Tara says:

    Lib Dumbs have hit rock bottom. They have taken a pasting.

    Like

  34. 111
    Winnie the Pooh says:

    Like

  35. 112
    The Titanic says:

    Nick Clegg – ideally suited to be on board.

    Like

  36. 124
    Living in 97.1% white Merseyside says:

    I hope C4 News is just half an hour tonight.

    An hour of all this – saints preserve us!

    And yes I know, why am I reading this blog?

    Like

  37. 128
    David Thatcher & Maggie Cameron says:

    Europe & immigration are the main concerns. Cameron is looking weak in these areas. Some even believe that Cameron will fail to deliver a referendum on Europe.

    Like

    • 142
      Clueless Dave - the gift that keeps on giving says:

      Anyone for a cast iron guarantee? One careful owner.

      Like

  38. 129
    The Bank Holiday Weekend says:

    It’s beer o’clock. Well done to UKIP, he’s to Your Good Health, all of you.

    Tories: go and stand in the corner and contemplate the error of your ways.

    Like

  39. 130

    You have to understand about Matthew Goodwin’s background to interpret his remarks, Guido.

    The cuts at University of Nottingham have come down very hard on the School of Politics and International Relations there.

    Because of this, he has had to moonlight as a rugger bugger for the Aussies (South Sydney Rabbitohs) whilst also holding down a third job as a percussionist for his wife, Francesca Battistelli (jazz, rock, gospel and R&B).

    That leaves very little time for him to check his research so you should cut him some slack. The boy’s trying…

    Like

  40. 134

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes

    ** Sceptical face ** >> @roxley: @MrHаrryCоle Someone booked you for an 8am? Do they know you?

    Shurely shome mishtake?

    Like

  41. 140

    Tonight, let us put the cynicism and concerns about durability aside, and raise a glass – a pint, of course – to Nigel.

    Well done feller.

    Like

  42. 141
    Bazinga! says:

    There are plenty of pundits who are on the TV who keep getting it wrong.

    Toenails
    Toilets Maguire
    Fat Polly
    Owen Jones
    Sir Michael Shite

    However, there is no way the establishment will ever allow a vote to get out of Europe. Europe is a great place to earn a living if you’re a senior politician voted out by the people. Also, Europe is a great bogey man to blame when you are an incompetent government or don’t want to do something.

    Fact is the Tories, Liebore and the Limp Dems backed by the BBC don’t want to deport terrorists or restrict immigration, so they blame the EU, yet France. Germany and Italy have no problem restricting immigration or deporting terrorists, despite being signed up tot he same treaties as we are.

    I will make one predication that will come true. If UKIP continue to do well, expect the BBC and the British establishment to make up stories, hype lies and half truths about UKIP over the next two years.

    The BBC might hate the Tories, but they hate UKIP even more.

    Like

  43. 145
    Axe The Telly Tax & Religion & Kill All Ecoloons says:

    UKIP should change their name to EngIP, seeing as they do not contest seats in Wales,Scotland or Norther Ireland.

    They are not a UK wide party but and English nationlist party.

    Like

  44. 147
    Axe The Telly Tax & Religion & Kill All Ecoloons says:

    *Northern

    Like

  45. 148
    South Yorkshire Correspondent says:

    And its back to the dark ages for Doncaster.

    Ho hum.

    Like

  46. 149
    Anonymous says:

    Eric Pickles earlier insulted and ignored the concerns of the Chairman of Conservative grassroots. Previous to that he did the same sort of thing to the ex Tory Nottingham council leader.
    Pickles really is out of touch and part of the problem. Not good.

    Like

    • 157
      gordon's brown hole says:

      he’s a bloke who has marketed simple solutions and is now finding that the few really big worthwhile ones are impossible to put to the electorate – for reform – roll on national debt default?

      Like

  47. 151
    No right of entry says:

    Call Dave’s bluff #callthereferendum

    Like

  48. 154
    a non-eukip cove says:

    lets hope it stirs things up –

    and that the effect is more than just throwing another turd onto the dungpile

    Like

  49. 155

    Yaswhinge Aliblah-Blah just said “When i see Nigel Farage..I am frightened..Its like 1930’s Germany.”

    Ask your friend Polly if she has a final solution to this problem?

    Like

    • 158
      dreghzy hatton says:

      CLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERLY

      she hasn’t met me

      Like

    • 159

      Yes. I believe I have it!

      You take the initials of Yaswhinge Aliblah-Blah and Polly and join them together thus obtaining the acronym YAP.

      You could call it Anschluß.

      Like

      • 167
        Zeitgeist in Strawberry Hill (and 1st class passenger!) says:

        It’s like UKIP are saying no to the planned takeover from Turkey or secretive cleaner labour pioneered by the Labour Party, and therefore exactly like 1930s Germany, but the anti-fascists, not the Nazi Party which resembles the organisationally (at this stage only) the dogma and economic naivety of the EU. Comments please I am :c/o Oily greasy palm tree lounge, Brussels 666 666.

        Like

  50. 163
    Mystic says:

    Conservative- Ukip coalition. Dream team. 2015.

    Like

  51. 164
    DenHaag says:

    Goodwin’s boys are over at CIF claiming his study proofs that all UKIP members are closet BNP racists

    Like

  52. 165
    Gayan says:

    I see his wikipedia page has been updated ;-)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Goodwin

    Like

    • 168
      Malcolm McDowell says:

      That made I laugh…..

      Like

      • 170
        Let 'em all in says:

        “The BNP is finished as an electoral force” – Matthew Goodwin
        guardian.co.uk, Friday 4 May 2012 14.56 BST

        They got more than twice the LD’s vote in South Shields.

        ” Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham and an Associate Fellow at Chatham House”
        Would not surprise me if he went on about Thatch getting rid of ‘real’ jobs.

        Waster.

        Like

  53. 166
    Zeitgeist in Strawberry Hill (and 1st class passenger!) says:

    Oh but Goodwin is a Goodie! He was right about the smart money, buy shares in Liberal bliss and may the 1000 year dream never end! Love, peace and BBC x

    Like


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