March 8th, 2013

LISTEN: Guido on What Next For Huhne


  1. 1
    Vince Cable says:

    I don’t remember Guido being on the radio


    • 164
      Portion of Oats for 2 says:

      James Whale is off LBC, I’m told and Howard Sterne is being groomed for late night NBC now Guido on the radio whole world has gone to pot just need Huhne to appear on Top Gear driving a reasonably price car…


  2. 2
    Pawn Sandwich says:

    Let them eat oats.


    • 68
      HoC Payments Dept. says:

      Does Huhne the Hoon still qualify for his resigned-MP golden handshake and pension?


      • 185
        Mr Sally Bercow says:

        Yes of course, years of dedicated service, what else would you expect, slime balls are always rewarded


  3. 3
    Anon E Mouse says:

    I thought I heard them on LBC…..


  4. 4
    of the common people says:

    Have a nice weekend Chris :-)


  5. 5
    Vicky Pryce says:

    “what comes next for Chris Huhne?”

    I’m rather hoping it’s a 6’4″ black man by the name of Tyson whilst Huhne bends over to pick up the soap in the showers in Wormwood Scrubs!


  6. 6

    Yes have a lovely weekend Mr Huhne you complete pillock!!


  7. 8
    Highland fibdem watch says:


  8. 9
    God says:

    What “comes” next for the ridiculously-named “Huhne” – well, as the germans say, it will probably be “Ein grosse schwartzer” That should teach this arrogant politician a little humility! As for Vicky, she should (and probably will) get a shorter sentence than her ex-husband, but it will still be rough for her behind bars with all the bad-hat scouse chicks!


    • 58
      MB. says:

      Some newspaper reports say she might get a longer sentence because he pleaded guilty. Another report said they might try and get costs from him because of the length he delayed the trial though he can presumably afford it.


      • 116
        Mornington Crescent says:

        Pleading guilty at the door of the court won’t get him much of a discount.


    • 69
      Old England says:

      Will there be a book,a film,a play,will they make from their predicament and will
      crime pay.??? (accidental rhyming)


    • 130
      Lady Virginia Droit de Seigneur says:

      She tried to point the finger at his assistant through the press. Trying to fit up the innocent exacerbates the crime.


  9. 11
    Empty Ed the useless idiot says:

    Yesterday I was z o n ist

    Today I am no longer a z o n ist

    But I will be the next PM


  10. 12
    Hugh Janus says:

    Yes, definitely porridge – but it may be too much to hope that it will be a generous helping.


    • 13
      Huhne's Dilemma says:

      Short (possibly suspended) sentence, in which case man-up and do it, or get sent down on Monday for a very long time, in which case warm bath and razor blade over the coming weekend.

      Let’s hope he chooses wisely.


      • 29
        Casual Observer says:

        He would be best advised not to eat the yew flavored sweets which his ex left behind.


  11. 14

    Lib Dem …Paula Keaveney on R5 .. just said “We in the Lib Dems like nothing more than getting stuck in and doing the business. Our activists stick it to the end.”

    Yes, we’ve noticed.


  12. 15
  13. 16
    Anonymous says:


  14. 18

    Paula Keaveney on five live talking about lib dem activists being totally up for getting stuck in and doing the business.

    Well, they say that now. But in 5 years they’ll be a woman crying on Newsnight saying Lord Sandals put his hand on her rosette.


  15. 20
    (I don't need no doctor) says:

    Is Mark Thompson a lid-dem? His memory recall seems to be as good as that of Clegg and Cable.


    • 21

      I cannot recall knowing if Mark Thompson is a Lib Dem or not. If anyone ever told me he was, I cannot recall that. But the important thing to remember here is that we will take seriously any suggestion that Mark Thompson may have been a liberal democrat and take steps to not recall if he ever mentioned it over dinner.

      How’s my defection application coming along, Libbies? I’ve sent one to UKIP too.
      Just in case.


      • 23
        (I don't need no doctor) says:

        Thanks for that.
        No mention of Mark Thompson on the BBC news, well so far.


      • 28
        Yep He's Another One says:

        Thompson, while sympathetic to the left wing ideas of the current Lib-Dim party, is himself a member of the Marxist Communist Purpose organisation.


    • 41
      Obi wan Kanobi says:

      I’m currently running course in Jedi mind tricks for politicians in general , but the lefties are very keen

      You know the shit , “look into my eyes “, wave your hand & say “these are’nt the facts you’er looking”


    • 105
      Blowing Whistles says:

      Ah that recall word. Reminds that when the coalition took power we the public wore ‘told’ that there would be a new system to allow erring MP’s to be recalled.

      And guess what happend to that system of recalling your erring MP – you guessed it – it was all talk and ‘hot air’ – because they dropped it.

      My MP is a windbag of duplicitous 5hit and I am going to legally get him kicked out for the criminal acts which he may have committed but also for the criminal acts which he has been informed of – but of which he remains stoney silent of to date. He is a self-serving two-faced B’strd.


  16. 26
    Cicero says:

    Slightly O/T

    Eastleigh effect?

    Louise Bours wins Congleton town council by-election for UKIP – Tories second

    (NB Louise Bours used to be a Lib Dem)


    • 33

      (NB Louise Bours used to be a Lib Dem)

      Lib dem to Ukip? Smacks of naked ambition doesn’t it?

      But we MPs have a history. Remember Shaun Woodward? …Shaun Woodward ! Yes you do! He was a Tory who fancied he could be a bigger wig under Blair than Hague and defected. He was in a safe Tory seat and refused to allow a by election, even though the people had voted for a Tory.
      He ditched that constituency at the next election for a safe labour one, where the residents were probably just as pissed off as the Tories were.

      His labour credentials were pretty poor. He’s married to Camilla Davan Sainsbury, daughter of former Conservative MP Tim Sainsbury of the wealthy supermarket chain Sainsbury family. He was said in 2001 to be the only Labour MP with a butler.
      He added a seventh property to his property portfolio in January 2010 and now has a 1 million pound apartment in an alpine resort, along with a £1.35m London flat, a £7m pad in Hamptons, a £5m villa in Mustique, a house in the south of France, a £2m townhouse and a modest £85,000 home in his St. Helens constituency.

      So, a true working class hero.!

      And he was in Ed’s first cabinet. When they bang on about millionaires, they seem to avoid any mention of Woody.


      • 34
        old SHEP says:

        Or Buzz Lightyear and the Potato man.


      • 39
        Jimmy says:

        “He was in a safe Tory seat and refused to allow a by election,”

        No party has done that since Mitcham in 82. I believe that was the only time it ever happened.


        • 44

          Quite so. But still no excuse.

          I advised Billy at the time to bung a Mersyside Labour MP a half million quid to come over to the blues. Would have been great fun. But he said he didn’t want to do Blair any favours.


        • 46

          Quite so. But still no excuse.

          I advised Billy at the time to bung a Mersyside Labour MP a half million quid to come over to the blues. Would have been great fun. But he said he didn’t want to do B/lair any favours.


      • 49
        Jimmy says:

        “Smacks of naked ambition doesn’t it?”

        Congleton Town Council?


      • 178
        Glyn H says:

        Witney was it not; previously held by Hurd, ex FCO (and all that implies), father and grandfather Tory MP’s, Eton and Oxford but claimed when standing for leadership to be the son of a tenant farmer. ’twas true – tenant of 1000 acres in addition to the 500 he owned.
        Now remind me who the present MP is; not another upper crust lefty who ought to know better how to be a conservative?


    • 36
      Casual Observer says:

      The publicity probably helped, but how many postal votes were involved here ?


  17. 27
    (I don't need no doctor) says:

    Just how many police are involved in the Andrew Mitchell issue? At this rate we will have the findings of Chilcot before Mitchell.


    • 31
      old SHEP says:

      I think the problem is that it was the police that defamed him in the first place, if you see what I mean, ev’nin all! and mind how you go (or else).


      • 38

        I believe the police are urgently and earnestly on the case.
        The last report that I heard stated that the kettle HAS boiled and that milk has been sought at the corner shop. Once the biscuits are out of the tin we can expect all sorts of additional activity.


        • 43
          old SHEP says:

          Dunking Hob Nobs? :-)


          • Oh, I don’t think they’ll be ready to go that far for quite a while yet.


          • old SHEP says:

            I was referring to brand of biscuit, not to waterboarding.


          • Blowing Whistles says:

            They gotta spread the o/t hours about a bit and of course make a few lawyers a few bucks for ‘advice’ etc – An all round doddle seeing as it comes out of the public purse eh…

            More Hob Nobs anyone?


          • Anonymous says:

            those who wrk off the system are dependent. as you rightly note.
            now lets think about where have all the billions which have been printed of late gone. all heat without substance.

            those who are all things to all ppl..ultimately have a hollow core……which is fab as space has been created for nectar. but it gets filled with just water … an entity that is without “substance”. dependants take the nectar off the rest by trickery..a shallow demonic existance but then everyone s needed as no gem was created without the struggle between good ‘n bad.

            learned folks with depth know a lot but could be empty within.
            so ultimately knowledge 4 knowledge sake is junk.

            relevant k matters. despite discouraging words from master sc. the lesson there appears that what is relevant to one is not relevant to another. we are all at a different stage in our psychological evolution.

            look at the symbol (in sanskrit) for the number 7 bw….. and .
            then look at the shape of paper whistle that unrolls when blown. and then look at mouth movement when blowing out and then…
            it is all there.
            in the physical visual that is in blowing a paper whistle

            in the sound of ooooooooooooom. (om)

            and the matematically symbolic below.



            the symbol for 7 in sanskrit is ७

            the greatest power is in the sound…it shatters glass…ceilings?
            use with care.

            if the above is properly understood and accepted and it is also accepted that time is cyclic and not linear and that we are in the night time of god’s day…then not only is austerity as an environment is a greater nudge for honest living but also the correct stress test….the size of our challenges reflect the greatness of our potential.
            others have less reason to gives us discomfort “destroying lives”..if we want less of system that they feed off. detach….and then create nectar within. you are worth it.


    • 59
      The lat honest copper says:

      Good point

      And some more policemen admitted to taking bribes from the Murdoch Mob today

      At this rate the police will be fully occupied arresting eachother when not arresting members of th Murdoch Mob

      BYW Reberah and Coulson in Court AGAIN today as well

      ? Fourth set of charges against them


    • 86
      Lord Chilcot MBE and bar says:

      Just to let you know

      I am in the middle of eating the report I completed 10 yeara ago

      MI5 told me to


  18. 35
    anon. says:


  19. 45
    Owin Jones says:

    What a fucking disgrace this is.

    86 year old Margaret Thatcher Claims £500,000 In Five Years,Cabinet Office Reveals,how does she manage on £2k a week


    • 52
      Laurie Penny says:

      ♫ I’m Hari. So Hari,Hari, Hari ♫


    • 66
      Hannibal Smith says:

      She probably needs it to pay for police protection from all the left wing scum who want to harm her.


      • 117
        Blowing Whistles says:

        Clocked Kenny boy Clark speaking up for Maggie on QT last night – but wasn’t it Clark and Heseltine (perhaps for their masters!! nnww) who plunged the knives in her back?

        Convenient Amnesia appears to be a disease swiftly moving around in all the political circles.


        • 147
          Jimmy says:

          I thought Clark was the only one with the balls to tell her to her face to piss off. Major’s dentist appointment was very cute.


          • Gordoom says:

            I was at home, with Tom Watson as a witness, when someone started a coup to topple Blair.

            it was n’ae me.


    • 145
      Jimmy says:

      Don’t we at least get something back on the empties?


  20. 51
    EU Funded Pro-EU Troll says:

    Vote UKIP.


  21. 56
    Gordon the medicated says:

    I am the wizard of Odd


    • 71
      old SHEP says:

      Izal (anybody remember that) it was a none-absorbent arse wipe that gave you piles.


      • 73
        Lord Mandelson of everything false and dodgy says:

        Piles? Did you say piles?

        I have overcome my piles problem by getting my anus replaced with a gold one to impress those who, like me, prefer the backdoor


        • 120
          Blowing Whistles says:

          Do you possess any secret pictures from your bolthole in the Isle of Man that various of your guests didn’t know were being taken?


      • 81
        - . ... ... .- - .. -.-. -.- .-.. . ... says:

        That must have been a tough sell.

        “♪♫ Izal! Izel! ♪♫ The non-absorbent arse – wipe – that – gives – you – piles ♪♫ By the company that brought you ‘Izil’ – the acne treatment that makes your face fizzle.”


        • 84
          labourunionsbbc are one under the EU says:

          You didn’t wipe with Izal but scraped and smeared. Bit like old Gordron.


  22. 57
    Owin Jones says:

    Tonight Guido Fawkes is joined on stage by the Weetabix skinheads, for a 27-minute version of Rabbit by Chas’n’Dave.


    • 77
      Lord Cashpoint impressario to the dodgy says:


      And wiat fir it

      Justin Bieber accompanied by his mother the one and only Lady Gaga s ass


      • 79
        Tatler correspondent says:

        I thought Lady Gaga was married to Lord Mandelson

        And with him in Russia nowadays


  23. 63
    EU Watch says:


    • 70
      - . ... ... .- - .. -.-. -.- .-.. . ... says:

      Exactly how many different ratings are there? There’s obviously AAA, and AA1, and BBB+. Do they go down to ZZZ? ZZZ-? Is there an AAZ+ and a ZZA-?

      Are they just making this shit up?


      • 72
        old SHEP says:

        ZZZZZZ!, then death rattle…


      • 75
        EU Watch says:

        Fitch go AAA to D.

        Pattern: AAA, AA+, AA, AA-, A+, A, A-, BBB+, BBB, BBB-, …, D

        BBB puts !talian debt in the ‘Lower medium grade’ state.

        Non-investment grade, ie. junk rating, starts at BB+.

        It is partly subjective, so to your point ‘yes’, but these ratings do have a real effect as they drive the yield which holders of the debt demand. The lower it is, the higher the yield to reflect the added risk of default.

        S&P is the best indicator for sovereign debt, Fitch / Moody’s less so.

        S&P rank !taly: BBB+
        Moodys rank !taly: Baa2

        They all have !taly on negative watch.


      • 78
        Bill Quango RT Hon MP says:

        It’s a bit like hotel stars. They go from to one to five, but no one fancies anything lower than three unless they enjoy fishing dead mice out of the bath.


        • 82
          Gordon Brown says:

          I have a duck in the bath, his name is quacky.


        • 83
          Mafia capo says:

          Dont forget that we will always underwrite Italian debt as long as the British banks keep

          laundering our billions so kindly and efficiently


          • Blowing Whistles says:

            And a ship called the Grand Orient will be departing from under Waterloo bridge later this evening.


        • 85
          - . ... ... .- - .. -.-. -.- .-.. . ... says:

          So why don’t they have a ‘1’ rating, followed by ‘2’ and going down (or up) to ‘5’?

          What’s with this “AAA+” and “AA1″ and “BBB+”? This system was designed by someone with OCD, wasn’t it? Someone who liked collecting (and categorising) birds’ eggs.

          Or someone who worked in IT.


          • Mysticism. It is worth $$$$$$$$!


          • Squawker says:

            It’s like bra sizes, or shoe sizes. Or hat sizes. We already have a perfectly good system of mensuration — two, as a matter of fact. When asked your shoe size, you should just be able to say “n inches” or “n centimetres”, not “eight and three fucking sixteenths.” So yes, Fitch and the others are the sort of people who keep their CD collection not in alphabetical order of artist, but by catalogue number.



        • 90
          Moody Blue says:

          We rate Italian debt as FFF.

          But the Brits and Germans are picking up the tab, so BBB+.


          • Blowing Whistles says:

            How about a KKK rating which translates to 11+11+11 which = 33 it’s a magic number … ha ha ha!


    • 94
      Sir William Wade says:

      Rating sovereign debt is miserably pointless, since it reveals no new information. Rating the creditworthiness of a private business can be useful, if done properly, but there is no value in a small group of computer-jockeys inventing some arbitrary algorithm, using it to crunch some suspect economic numbers, and coming out with some meaningless alphabet soup.


      • 131

        As I responded to Tessa: $$$$$

        Underwriting is something which no organisation should delegate. In my time of working in this field, I always insisted on keeping the control in-house. I left one responsible position on this principle alone. Thirteen years later, I left the industry for the same reasons.

        Now, thirteen years later, the entire industry is coming round to the same principle.


        • 137
          Blowing Whistles says:

          Underwriting, Understanding and Undertaking – they all have different meanings to different people. Why would the legals who consider all non-legals as fair game hide the other meanings? [This is ONLY for those who can think outside of the BOX]


          • Whilst I understand where you are coming from I was talking in a deliberately narrow sense of the term which relates to a lender’s decision maker having responsibility for the outcome of his/her decisions.

            The problem with the legal system is that, if there is a basis of accountability, it is unclear to me (and probably to many others) what precisely that is. My own theory, for what it is worth, is that this lack of accountability was noted by the accounting profession (remember Fred the Shed? That is where he came from…) and then crept like cancer into the banking system.

            I have enquired of you elsewhere here how things went for Maurice Kirk.


          • Blowing Whistles says:

            SC – How about this as a rating DDD – Dumbed-down, Duped and Deluded.

            Accounting – don’t forget (age does it to so many) Accenture / Andersen < Ref Enron 'too big to fail' – my rse. Fred is just a thick fuck who rode the gravy train – and his pension WILL BE TAKEN FROM HIM.

            I have made comments re Maurice and the spinless journalists who are a FUCKING disgrace to the human race – and the family of Daniel Morgan and Lynette White. There are 2 episodes which continue on Monday, one is the Celebrity political / journalist circus – the other is the real stuff of the disgrace that is South Wales Police and their dupers in the legal circles. BASTARD LEGAL SHYSTERS.


          • Not Blowing Whistles says:

            The auditors are meant to be independent and impartial to the companies of whom they audit. If you can’t trust them it is game over for preventing fraud.

            In the case of Enron, this separation became blurred. This was as a result of revolving door appointments. This led to total corruption, outright fraud, and eventually the demise of not only Enron but Anderson’s.

            Does this happen elsewhere ? Yes it does. Look for the revolving doors between institutions which should be segregated, including government, and you will find the fraud.

            The media are generally unable to report on this sort of corruption as by its very nature it is opaque.

            Mr Shred had a job to do, and did it. He built the worlds largest commercial bank. Unfortunately that was not a smart move.

            The term ‘Too big to fail’ (TBTF) was popularized in 1984 by Rep Stewart McKinney when referring to the FDIC takeover of Continental Illinois following a bank run. CI was 7th largest US bank at that time. The takeover (bailout) cost $4.5bn, the largest of its kind.

            There was much concern raised about ‘moral hazard’ being introduced.

            This bailout record was beaten in 2008, when FDIC placed Washington Mutual into receivership following a run, that cost $30bn.

            The CI takeover should be considered in the context of the S+L crisis which was ongoing during the 1980s. That was caused primarily by relaxation of regulation in the US.

            Now, as regulation was further relaxed in the US during the 90s, completely the opposite of what was recommended after S+L autopsy, and also in the UK thanks to Brown, the R.B.S. and other bank failures were inevitable.

            TBTF is genuine for certain pieces of critical economic infrastructure, such as A.I.G. for instance, but not for an energy trading firm, or an auditing firm.

            Until the revolving doors can be prevented, which would enforce professional separation between certain professions, this problem will not go away.

            The problems you highlight eloquently relating to the legal fraternity are of an equivalent nature.

            One should not shoot the messengers though as they should be professional separate. However, as Leves0n exposed, even that cannot be relied upon.

            @SC: The problem with accountability is that there has been a break down in professional accountability within the professions themselves, interests have become mixed, and most are now focused on material reward rather than spiritual good.

            This is an almost complete realization of a pure Marxian utopia.


          • Thank you NBW.

            Again it comes down to the point I have been pressing remorselessly. Without an ethical base, we can get nowhere.

            Where is the politician who will fight for this and who is not simply paying lip service?


      • 142
        Casual Observer says:

        With !taly in the Euro it may be different as since !taly cannot create currency to manage the debt, its sovereign debt can be regarded similarly to corporate.

        The GDP per Capita trend is revealing:

        !taly GDP Per Capita / US $ Constant since 2000
        21000 ┌                    
        20500 ├                    
        20000 ├       ▄ █          
        19500 ├ ▄ █ █ █ █ █        
        19000 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █     ▄  
        18500 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ ▄ █ █  
        18000 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █  
        17500 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █  
        17000 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █  
        16500 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █  
        16000 ┼─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀──
               2004              2012   

        As is the government debt:GDP ratios:

        !taly Government Debt:GDP / % GDP
          130 ┌                    
          125 ├                   █
          120 ├               ▄ █ █
          115 ├             █ █ █ █
          110 ├             █ █ █ █
          105 ├ ▄ ▄ █ █ ▄ █ █ █ █ █
          100 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
           95 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
           90 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
           85 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
           80 ┼─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀
               2004              2013   


      • 143
        Casual Observer says:

        It may be fairer to consider !talian sovereign debt to be more like corporate debt, as the !talian government can not create currency in order to manage its obligations.

        Euro membership has caused this change, and also created the problems which the governments over their now face, by removing the ability of those governments to manage their debt obligations through currency devaluation.


    • 123
      grobdj says:

      Ratings agencies are just ad-men for debt-pedlars, like Sky is to Wonga

      AAA is 2% APR

      ZZZ is 4596% APR



  24. 74
    Jimmy says:

    Congleton’s in the footballer belt. Can’t think of anyone better at the moment for getting out of Europe.


  25. 88
    No future in Edinburgh says:

    Oh dear! All this for a speeding ticket. Silly boy.


  26. 92
    Owin Jones says:

    The great bedroom tax farce: Just 50 one-bed homes available for 7,000 hit in Newcastle


  27. 93
    No future in Edinburgh says:

    What utter, boring tripe on twitter. These saddos need to get a life of their own.

    I wouldn’t waste anymore of time on twitter tripe. Boring.


    • 97
      - . ... ... .- - .. -.-. -.- .-.. . ... says:

      I’ve never used Twitter for that reason. In fact, I stopped buying the Telegraph when their ‘journalists’ started copying and pasting ‘tweets’ as if the crap was a worthy source of news. I swear, half the f*cking Daily Telegraph is copied from Twitter. There’s more original content in Tony Blair’s Dodgy Dossier.


    • 101
      Sally "fuck me I'm gorgeous" Bercowow says:

      Me too hun *eyelashes*. U wunt a qwk 69 *lick*


  28. 95
    Vicky and Isabel Oakeshott says:

    We are having a girls night out tonite

    To celebrate our 12 hours of fame as the nastiest bitches in London

    And all those congratulations from the Murdoch Mob


  29. 129

    It was the voices in my head that told me that my austerity cuts were working


  30. 144
    Machiavelli says:

    Grauniad attempting to sew the seeds of leadership discontent ?

    Gideon behind the May rumors ?


  31. 146
    Saffron says:

    Firstly these ratings agencies are a complete and utter load of garbage vis a vis their gold plated ratings of the sub prime it started in yankee land shows.
    Frankly they could’nt run a pee up in a brewery,or a whelk stall.
    Next is amnesia seems to be in the DNA of the Libdumbs/and our tax paid British Bullshit Corporation.
    Nice to see that Rupee Murdo has cottoned on to the fact that Farage and UKIP will be a threat to all three parties next time round and is now courting Farage.
    Cammoron and his unheard of brand of left wing conservatism is doomed to failure,and I for one can the knife being used shortly on this PR asshole and some of his mates.
    Finally a question :- Can any on this blog tell all of us exactly what Red Ed birdshit hair stands for because all I have heard from this plonker is absolutely nothing except a blank piece of paper and as for that economic genious Ballsup well enough said.


  32. 149
    hardenyourselffashionweapons says:

    huhne should have been lib leader, much more controllable for us. Hope his greek spunkrag rots.


  33. 150
    Saffron says:

    Sorry that I did’nt put see between can and the,must be the whisky,nite nite folks and sleep tight.


  34. 154
    Owin Jones says:

    High off the Cillit Bang fumes after cleaning our revolting bathroom. Still. Feels like Guido Fawkes has assaulted my mind.


  35. 155
    (I don't need no doctor) says:

    Tony Blair on News at Ten, and still justifying the invasion of Iraq.
    Fuck me the bloke is totally sick in the head.
    Blair’s lies just keep on spewing out.


    • 159
      Vince Cable says:

      I don’t recall spewing, but I seem to remember telling a few lies. I am just not sure which was a lie and which wasn’t any more.


  36. 156
    'Gypsy' Dave Cooper says:

    I can’t wait to see what sentence that arrogant gobshite gets.

    Just goes to show, treat people like shit and you eventually get your comeuppance.

    I just pray that a similar fate awaits Balls one day.


  37. 158
    UK Watch says:

    With GBP-USD finishing the day @ < 1.50, it is nice that the Euro Group are also 'putting the boot' into Sterling as well:

    This is negative propaganda. The Euro Group are in a bad position over handling of Cyprus, which could well drop out of the Euro imminently. Unfortunately, the current UK trend will give them credibility, which is why they are issuing the statements.

    The economy itself is in a questionable state. The reduced contribution from public sector net investment (PSNI) which Osborne slashed in order to get the lion share of the 25% reduction in deficit is likely behind current GDP contraction, and third dip of recession.

    This is a very negative signal about the state of the private sector, and hence what sort of tax figures are likely to be announced in the next few weeks.

    The following shows state spending as % of GDP 2003 thru 2012:

    UK State Spending % GDP
    50 ┌                    
    48 ├                    
    46 ├               ▄ ▄  
    44 ├             █ █ █ █
    42 ├             █ █ █ █
    40 ├           █ █ █ █ █
    38 ├   ▄ █ ▄ █ █ █ █ █ █
    36 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
    34 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
    32 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
    30 ┼─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀
       2003               2012 
    Source: ukpublicspending co uk
    2009:	44.58 %
    2010:	45.31 %
    2011:	45.13 %
    2012:	44.11 %

    The state spending : GDP ratio does need to be reduced. It was at 37.64% in 1997 when Labour came in to office. 30yr average is ~39%.

    Two ways to reduce: Fix state spending and increase GDP, or decrease state spending faster than GDP.

    Sterling will likely be depressed until the tax figures have come out, and there could well be another downgrade on the way for the UK if something is not done about Osborne. That is more about credibility of management than anything economic, however the UK private sector does not appear to be in a very healthy state at present.


    • 160

      When the level of state spending has to be upheld or increased, as is happening now (that 2012 figure is masking other committed spending), by a Conservative-led government, then that government is not fit to call itself Conservative.


      • 165
        UK Watch says:

        Forgot to mention that the 2012 figure above is the HM Treasury estimate. The actual figure has not been released yet.

        The change in state spending itself is slowing down, and may go negative this year (hurrah ?):

          UK Public Spending £ billion      % Annual Change UK Spending
        700 ┌                   ▄           15 ┌                    
        670 ├               ▄ █ █           14 ├                    
        640 ├               █ █ █           12 ├                    
        610 ├             █ █ █ █           11 ├                    
        580 ├           ▄ █ █ █ █            9 ├   ▄                
        550 ├         ▄ █ █ █ █ █            8 ├ █ █ █   █   █      
        520 ├         █ █ █ █ █ █            6 ├ █ █ █   █ ▄ █ █    
        490 ├     ▄ █ █ █ █ █ █ █            5 ├ █ █ █   █ █ █ █    
        460 ├   ▄ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █            3 ├ █ █ █ ▄ █ █ █ █ █  
        430 ├ ▄ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █            2 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ ▄
        400 ┼─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀            0 ┼─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀
            2003               2012          2002/03            2011/12 
        Source: ukpublicspending co uk
        2009: £621.38bn   (Change 2008: 7.88%)
        2010: £660.82bn   (Change 2009: 6.35%)            
        2011: £681.28bn   (Change 2010: 3.1%)
        2012: £687.9bn    (Change 2011: 0.97%)

        In 1997 public spending was: £312.42bn

        Average change in public spending 1997-2010: +5.72% / year

        Change in public spending itself has slowed, the increase in % GDP reflects that GDP has shrunk.

        NB: If state spending is held constant in real terms, as it generally was under the the pre 1997 conservative administrations, the change in spending should reflect inflation, or spikes where the government covers recessions / wars with public spending.

        In real terms, with inflation at 2.7% in 2012, the 0.97% increase represents a real term reduction of 1.73% state spending.


        • 166

          Ha! This is where we get into funny accounting. We have already discussed how the various inflation indices are representative of almost nothing and, whereas we slightly differ in our assessment of the real inflation rate is (whatever that might be – I would suggest a shopping basket of necessities that a below average income family might buy as a starter), we both agree it is far greater than any published figure.

          If this is accepted then it curiously entails that the real terms reduction is even larger than you state. I say this rather tongue-in-cheek as I am simply aghast at the levels of public debt that the UK has incurred and I see the nation as being way beyond any ability to service this debt, let alone make any meaningful reduction. The point about simply writing off QE is already taken into account in the above view BTW. UK has to default in the mid-term. It is unavoidable.


          • UK Watch says:

            Replied below, oops.

            This is some good news about the UK economy:

              UK Per Capita GDP / £            UK  GDP / £ billion
            26000 ┌                         1600 ┌                    
            25200 ├                         1540 ├                   █
            24400 ├                 ▄ █     1480 ├               ▄ █ █
            23600 ├           ▄   ▄ █ █     1420 ├         ▄ █ ▄ █ █ █
            22800 ├         █ █ ▄ █ █ █     1360 ├         █ █ █ █ █ █
            22000 ├       ▄ █ █ █ █ █ █     1300 ├       █ █ █ █ █ █ █
            21200 ├       █ █ █ █ █ █ █     1240 ├     █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
            20400 ├     █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █     1180 ├   █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
            19600 ├   █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █     1120 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
            18800 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █     1060 ├ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
            18000 ┼─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀     1000 ┼─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀
                  2003               2012        2003               2012

            It is a shame that this is not recognized, especially the per capita rate increase.

            The UK population increased by ~1/2 a million 2011 to 2012, just to confirm that the per capita rise was not caused by population decline.

            People will not notice this though as the cost of living is increasing faster. I do agree on the issue of RPI / CPI, they are a fiction, but also do not believe that most price increases in consumer goods at present are a result of inflation.

            They are mainly genuine price increases caused by shortage.

            I corrected myself below with the GDP deflator figure which is the safest measure of inflation.


        • 167
          UK Watch says:

          I should have quoted the GDP Deflator.

          According to ONS that is 2.3% for 2012: So that makes a 1.33% reduction in state spending in 2012.

          Agreed, the RPI / CPI figures are fiction.

          UK General Gross debt as % GDP
          100 ┌                    
           93 ├                    
           86 ├                   ▄
           79 ├                 █ █
           72 ├               █ █ █
           65 ├               █ █ █
           58 ├             ▄ █ █ █
           51 ├             █ █ █ █
           44 ├       ▄ ▄ ▄ █ █ █ █
           37 ├ ▄ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █
           30 ┼─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀─▀
            2002/03b            2011/12 
          Source: ONS

          General government debt in 2011/12 was at 85.8% of GDP

          The massive jump in the debt is the impact of nationalizing the banks.

          Am not sure about default. There is no reason for that to happen.

          However, covering all debt repayment by tax is not going to work.

          The only route out of the current impass will be currency devaluation, and to get the private sector debts which have been assumed by the state off of the states books. !reland has made moves in that direction recently: Debt Swap

          It should be possible to effect a swap with the Bo.E in the case of the UK when the rela public debt is under control.


          • OK. We can carry on this part of the thread here, no worries. It is the ideas that count. It is good to see this stuff being presented and discussed here as, successful as o-o has been and the success has been dramatic in holding the wicked to account, as one becomes more prominent, it is necessary to have something positive to say, otherwise people can justifiably level accusations of negativism at us.

            I shall carry on with my charge about needing to default in order to draw the argument out from you. Devaluation of the level that would get us out of the sheer mess we are in would have to be so great that it becomes even less ethical than straight-forward default. You will notice me always coming back to the ethical position in the long analysis. There are many reasons for my arguing this way but here are two:

            HM the Queen aked Why didn’t anyone see this coming? Excuse me, I did Maam! The fact that we were in such a strong position towards the end of the 90s with the looming clearance of War Loan from half a century before needs to be remembered by all. In thirteen short years, we went from the top of the snakes and ladders board right back to the start. That is a savage indictment of the Labour years.

            The other thing relates to my age being slightly above average here. :-) I remember the years of inflation that happened in the 1970s (the huge increase in oil prices in 1973/4 is only partly accountable.) I was getting established in that time so I was old enough to see its consequences, not only on me but upon many others. I was young and adaptable. I moved house many times and found that each time my mortgage was half paid off by inflation. So I was OK. But, for the elderly of the day, it was a debasement of all they had worked towards. Many of these had fought in WWII, or been part of the Home Front, and by now were powerless to do what I had done. That is morally indefensible. I thought that at the time and I still do.

            Of course a default would also drive up prіces. But the state could then reset a number of what it regarded its obligations as. For those who had contributed to the country’s coffers, they would be protected. For those who had previously freeloaded, or had been economic migrants, they would have to stand on their own feet or leave. Harsh but fair.

            In future exchanges I shall use the Reset descriptor to describe this whole concept of not just dealing with our debt but with the re-ordering our obligations.


          • ОK. Wе саn саrry оn thіѕ pаrt оf thе thrеаd hеrе, nо wоrrіеѕ. Іt іѕ thе іdеаѕ thаt соunt. Іt іѕ gооd tо ѕее thіѕ ѕtuff bеіng prеѕеntеd аnd dіѕсuѕѕеd hеrе аѕ, ѕuссеѕѕful аѕ о-о hаѕ bееn аnd thе ѕuссеѕѕ hаѕ bееn drаmаtіс іn hоldіng thе wісkеd tо ассоunt, аѕ оnе bесоmеѕ mоrе prоmіnеnt, іt іѕ nесеѕѕаry tо hаvе ѕоmеthіng pоѕіtіvе tо ѕаy, оthеrwіѕе pеоplе саn juѕtіfіаbly lеvеl ассuѕаtіоnѕ оf nеgаtіvіѕm аt uѕ.

            І ѕhаll саrry оn wіth my сhаrgе аbоut nееdіng tо dеfаult іn оrdеr tо drаw thе аrgumеnt оut frоm yоu. Dеvаluаtіоn оf thе lеvеl thаt wоuld gеt uѕ оut оf thе ѕhееr mеѕѕ wе аrе іn wоuld hаvе tо bе ѕо grеаt thаt іt bесоmеѕ еvеn lеѕѕ еthісаl thаn ѕtrаіght-fоrwаrd dеfаult. Yоu wіll nоtісе mе аlwаyѕ соmіng bасk tо thе еthісаl pоѕіtіоn іn thе lоng аnаlyѕіѕ. Thеrе аrе mаny rеаѕоnѕ fоr my аrguіng thіѕ wаy but hеrе аrе twо:

            HM thе Quееn аkеd Why dіdn’t аnyоnе ѕее thіѕ соmіng? Еxсuѕе mе, І dіd Mааm! Thе fасt thаt wе wеrе іn ѕuсh а ѕtrоng pоѕіtіоn tоwаrdѕ thе еnd оf thе 90ѕ wіth thе lооmіng сlеаrаnсе оf Wаr Lоаn frоm hаlf а сеntury bеfоrе nееdѕ tо bе rеmеmbеrеd by аll. Іn thіrtееn ѕhоrt yеаrѕ, wе wеnt frоm thе tоp оf thе ѕnаkеѕ аnd lаddеrѕ bоаrd rіght bасk tо thе ѕtаrt. Thаt іѕ а ѕаvаgе іndісtmеnt оf thе Lаbоur yеаrѕ.

            Thе оthеr thіng rеlаtеѕ tо my аgе bеіng ѕlіghtly аbоvе аvеrаgе hеrе. :-) І rеmеmbеr thе yеаrѕ оf іnflаtіоn thаt hаppеnеd іn thе 1970ѕ (thе hugе іnсrеаѕе іn оіl prісеѕ іn 1973/4 іѕ оnly pаrtly ассоuntаblе.) І wаѕ gеttіng еѕtаblіѕhеd іn thаt tіmе ѕо І wаѕ оld еnоugh tо ѕее іtѕ соnѕеquеnсеѕ, nоt оnly оn mе but upоn mаny оthеrѕ. І wаѕ yоung аnd аdаptаblе. І mоvеd hоuѕе mаny tіmеѕ аnd fоund thаt еасh tіmе my mоrtgаgе wаѕ hаlf pаіd оff by іnflаtіоn. Ѕо І wаѕ ОK. But, fоr thе еldеrly оf thе dаy, іt wаѕ а dеbаѕеmеnt оf аll thеy hаd wоrkеd tоwаrdѕ. Mаny оf thеѕе hаd fоught іn WWІІ, оr bееn pаrt оf thе Hоmе Frоnt, аnd by nоw wеrе pоwеrlеѕѕ tо dо whаt І hаd dоnе. Thаt іѕ mоrаlly іndеfеnѕіblе. І thоught thаt аt thе tіmе аnd І ѕtіll dо.

            Оf соurѕе а dеfаult wоuld аlѕо drіvе up prісеѕ. But thе ѕtаtе соuld thеn rеѕеt а numbеr оf whаt іt rеgаrdеd іtѕ оblіgаtіоnѕ аѕ. Fоr thоѕе whо hаd соntrіbutеd tо thе соuntry’ѕ соffеrѕ, thеy wоuld bе prоtесtеd. Fоr thоѕе whо hаd prеvіоuѕly frееlоаdеd, оr hаd bееn есоnоmіс mіgrаntѕ, thеy wоuld hаvе tо ѕtаnd оn thеіr оwn fееt оr lеаvе. Hаrѕh but fаіr.

            Іn futurе еxсhаngеѕ І ѕhаll uѕе thе Rеѕеt dеѕсrіptоr tо dеѕсrіbе thіѕ whоlе соnсеpt оf nоt juѕt dеаlіng wіth оur dеbt but wіth thе rе-оrdеrіng оur оblіgаtіоnѕ.


          • UK Watch says:

            I shall respond in parts as there is a lot of complexity in the above.

            First point though: Q’s question and a little on GBP devluation.

            Governor K!ng answered this on the record:


            ‘… the answer was ‘extremely simple’, adding: ‘No one believed it could happen. There was a failure of imagination to appreciate the scale of the fragilities and their potential consequences.’

            ‘No one could quite bring themselves to believe that in our modern financial system the biggest banks in the world could fall over. But they did.’ ‘

            Note that Labour (Brown) had stripped the Bo.E of its power in 1997: This was a fatal blow.

            So, cognitive block caused in large part by Labour political propaganda was reason. Something similar was happening in the US at the time.

            Also, from that article of May 2012, K!ng stated that GBP could experience a 25% fall in value.

            GBP-USD in May 2012 was ~1.62, 25% fall = 1.21

            This is part of the economic rebalancing, which is what we are talking about in terms of ‘reset’.

            NB: The Gilt yield curve did tick upwards yesterday. Likely in response to USD-GBP going below 1.50. These moves will lock in the next round of QE and guarantee further decline in GBP / future downgrades.


  38. 163
    Tony Blair's hair says:

    Look…I just want to set the record straight..I mean…………………….you might think that I …………. sexed up the dossier..Well, you’d be right.

    But………..I had to….

    Those Iraqis were only 45 minutes away from invading Dover.


  39. 170
    The BBC causes serious mental illness says:

    We do not really want to apologize or have anyone remind us who is and who is not a senior QC. It’s womans day FFS.


  40. 174
    Market Watch says:

    Gilts Yields 8 Mar 2013:

     2Y : 0.26  (+8.86%)
     5Y : 0.91  (+2.94%)
    10Y : 2.06  (+2.49%)
    15Y : 2.66  (+1.68%)
    20Y : 2.99  (+1.25%)
    (% change indicates difference to previous day yield)

    B.oE rate: 0.5%
    GBP-USD: 1.4917


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