Guido smelt a rat when Adam Afriyie told Sky News that he had ‘choked on his cereal’ when he read the news yesterday morning of his apparent leadership challenge. Team Afriyie had known long enough in advance that the Mail on Sunday had rumbled them and an exposé was coming, for them to be able to try and spoil it by briefing the Sun and Sunday Times. Opinions on how big that ‘team’ might be vary this morning, but there is certainly a group of spurned and bitter types who are definitely on the hunt for a figurehead untainted by Cameron or the government.

Guido has long suspected that Cameron’s trouble would always come from one the of 2005 intake who missed out on jobs in government because of the coalition. Add into the mix a lot of sacked ministers from the last reshuffle and cap it all with Dave’s legendary poor micro-party management skills and you can see why there are already the plots bubbling over. It’s a long road to 2015, and things could really flare up in after a spring council election drubbing…