January 15th, 2013

YouGov Reverse Ferret Over Harsh UKIP Poll

YouGov boss Peter Kellner has clarified this morning’s poll putting UKIP on a suspiciously low 17% for the Euro elections. With ComRes placing UKIP’s European Parliament ratings at 23% and Survation at 22% over the past week, the YouGov poll seemed considerably off. Kellner explains that the 17% figure was arrived at using the “two-stage” prompting method where the initial choice is only between the main three parties. When UKIP were prompted, YouGov found they had a rating of 19%. As Kellner says: “To put it another way, on a like-with like basis, we all put UKIP’s EP support at 21% plus or minus two”And it’s only going to go one way from here…


  1. 1
    Lizzie says:

    Well, if you start the ‘two stage ‘process suggesting three options which folks have to choose between you’re bound to underestimate at the second stage when you introduce the fourth option because people will have an inbuilt resistance to ‘changing’ their choice. It’s one of the classic ways to manipulate a poll!

  2. 2
    Chuka Umunna says:

    I’ll buy that (as long as its not at HMV)

  3. 3
    Kebab Time says:

    The only poll that matters is the one that involves a ballot box.

  4. 4
    Rusty says:


  5. 5
    Gerry Adams says:

    I agree.

  6. 6
    Frederick says:

    Kellner’s wife is the hideous Cathy Ashton, euro foreign sectretary. He must hate ukip. So don’t believe anything from yougov when it relates to the eu.

  7. 7
    Dvae - balls of steel - Cameron says:

    You’re telling me son – no chance of any ballot boxes when I’m around.

    PS fancy a quick bunk up, Sam’s out tonight?

  8. 8
    Bluto says:

    What Kellner (Mr Baroness Ashton) and YouGov does is to subjectively skew the poll to influence public opinion rather than objectively calculate the poll to accurately reflect it. It is a marketing tool of the left and Labour who know full well how conforming to the majority viewpoint is a tendency in dumbed-down, New Labour indoctrinated Britain.

    Very few members of the public will bother to read or understand Kellner’s qualifying caveat. The damage to UKIP has been done.

  9. 9
    Kim Jong XXIII says:

    So will I.

  10. 10
    Anonymous says:

    If UKIP can get 21%, Cameron Conservatives will be 3rd.

  11. 11

    kellner is an arse anyway-anything that suits gov’t thinking and he’ll produce it! Complete turd!

  12. 12
    Anonymous says:

    Biggest surprise is LD polling 12%. I was expecting LD to poll around 8%, once Clegg name is mentioned, fall to 4%.

  13. 13
    A bit of objectivity says:

    As usual, not an objective post. YouGov using the same technique over-estimated the UKIP vote in 2009 by 1.5%. The initial questionning actually asked voting preference between 4 parties plus “other” and projected using all the questions, although not filtering by intention to vote.

  14. 14
    Guido Joke says:

    Same as general election.

    Nice of you to finally notice

  15. 15
    Muswellhillbili says:

    YouGov’s (CON/LAB/LD) closed prompt method means they have CON/LAB/LD on 77% for 2014 – they only got 57% in 2009. It also means they have Greens, PC, SNP, BNP and the other small parties on ONLY 6% vs 25% in 2009!.

  16. 16
    Mr Baroness Ashton (EU branch) says:

    “Very few members of the public will bother to read or understand Kellner’s qualifying caveat.”

    It’s really very simple: If you imagine an Airedale terrier jumping in and out of a watering can once every ten seconds and make the labour voter x ten then half the amount, it’s that simple.

    Vote labour.

  17. 17
    Anonymous says:

    The Tories are cutting YOUR benefits to enable them to pay benefits to all the Bulgarian and Rumanians who will be flooding the country in 2014. We have to pay them its an EU rule.
    Free family allowance, housing benefit, jobseekers, invalidity, tax credits, not to mention free education in our overcrowded schools and free healthcare in our overloaded NHS. Nevermind we know you dont mind YOUR taxes paying for all this and you are no doubt thrilled that granny has just had to sell her home after a lifetimes contribution to the state to pay for care. This will be the catalist that sends the UKIP vote through the foof

    Tories have now called in Heseltine Clark and Madelson to tell us how terible it will be to leave the EU. Hang on a minuet aint these the same tossers who told us it would be a desaster if we didn’t join the Euro?

    What a bunch of jokers, you couldn’t make it up

    U Gove are the establishments PR organisation

  18. 18
    Gooey Blob says:

    Tories will almost certainly be third in 2014. Come 2015, UKIP’s support will fail to materialise.

    It’s not rocket science.

  19. 19
    Raving Loon says:

    Not bad that UKIP can poll 17% when only the 3 main parties are available.

  20. 20
    Raving Loon says:

    Maybe the people have had enough BS rammed down their throat and will just ignore the poll.

  21. 21
    Dave - balls of steel - Cameron says:

    Democracy is for the little people

  22. 22
    Ed Miliband says:

    Can we give the unions a block vote in 2015?

  23. 23
    rebekah aka nellnewman says:

    I have never considered YouGov to be a balanced and unbiased source of polling results – one must always remember that kellner and his wife baroness ashton are firmly in the gordonbrown leftwing political spectrum.

  24. 24
    Bollocks to getting a pseudonym says:

    Don’t believe anything from Yougov on any subject, period.

  25. 25
    money out of thin air says:

    Fractional-reserve banking is the practice whereby banks retain only a portion of their customers’ deposits as readily available reserves (currency or deposits at the central bank) from which to satisfy demands for payment. The remainder of customer-deposited funds are used to fund investments or loans the bank makes to other customers. Most of these funds are later redeposited into banks, allowing further lending. Thus, fractional-reserve banking permits the money supply to grow to a multiple of the underlying reserves of base money originally created by the central bank.

  26. 26
    rebekah aka nellnewman says:

    for the leftwing kellner to damage UKIP he would have to have influence with the electorate.

    I doubt the majority of the electorate are much interested in his views. It only his wife the baroness ashton and the westminster labour left who regard kellner’s views as influential.

    What is likely to influence support for UKIP for more will be whatever dave says re the in/out vote for th EU on friday.

  27. 27
    Gooey Blob says:

    ISTR YouGov consistently overstated Labour in the run-up to the last election. Only their final poll – less favourable to Labour – bore any resemblance to the result.

    About as reliable as ComRes, ie not very.

  28. 28
    Dave - balls of steel - Cameron says:

    Like the last 113 years?

  29. 29

    No. But Kellner has a rather vested interest in suppressing popular support for UKIP does he not?

    After all, if the UK did go for withdrawal he’d be several 100,000 euros down on the family income plus he’d no longer have all the bed to himself Mon-fri.

  30. 30
    Gordon the Medicated says:

    My poleing measurement is 4 inches.

  31. 31
    Agent Farage says:


  32. 32
    Anonymous says:

    UKIP has become the natural home of the real conservatives. Last time they went back to Cameron Conservatives to get rid of Brown.

    Now they have realised Cameron is worse than Brown. As long as Cameron is the leader more and more real conservatives will vote UKIP.

  33. 33
    Raving Loon says:

    “The bank hath benefit of interest on all moneys which it creates out of nothing.”

    William Paterson, founder of the Bank of England in 1694, then a privately owned bank.

    “Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.” Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744-1812), founder of the House of Rothschild.

    “The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favours that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests.” The Rothschild brothers of London writing to associates in New York, 1863.

    “Banking was conceived in iniquity and was born in sin. The Bankers own the Earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create deposits, and with the flick of a pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again. However, take it away from them, and all the fortunes like mine will disappear, and they ought to disappear, for this world would be a happier and better world to live in. But if you wish to remain slaves of the Bankers and pay for the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create deposits.” Sir Josiah Stamp, President of the Bank of England in the 1920s, the second richest man in Britain.

    “I am afraid the ordinary citizen will not like to be told that the banks can and do create money. And they who control the credit of the nation direct the policy of Governments and hold in the hollow of their hand the destiny of the people.” Reginald McKenna, as Chairman of the Midland Bank, addressing stockholders in 1924.

    “The banks do create money. They have been doing it for a long time, but they didn’t realise it, and they did not admit it. Very few did. You will find it in all sorts of documents, financial textbooks, etc. But in the intervening years, and we must be perfectly frank about these things, there has been a development of thought, until today I doubt very much whether you would get many prominent bankers to attempt to deny that banks create it.” H W White, Chairman of the Associated Banks of New Zealand, to the New Zealand Monetary Commission, 1955.

  34. 34
    rebekah aka nellnewman says:

    Well the banks might make money out of loaning out our money at huge rates of interest whilst we the depositors are not making any money out of the pitiful 1% interest the banks are paying us

    It is time government forced the banks to pay a fair and decent rate of interest to investors it pensioners.

  35. 35

    Have you only just realised this?
    Even the dumbest northern rock, 125% of mortgage, 6 maxed out credit cards, everything on HP, 5 holidays a year voter has known this for quite some time.

  36. 36
    Strategy says:

    UKIP have captured the middle ground. Onward consolidation and eating into Labour territory is now required, which they are doing.

    Gut feel is telling me that the backlash against PC b/s could actually swing more votes their may in the event of further ‘errors of judgement’ being widely reported.

    Things can only go in one direction for them unless they do something very dumb like aligning with one of the LIBLABCON ‘liberal’ parties.

    If that happens then the only democratic option will be insurrection. YouGov definitely will not want to support that.

  37. 37

    Or, more likely, not vote at all.

  38. 38
    Lizzie says:

    If Kellner really thinks that you can take three different polls, with different sample sizes and methods, and simply add them together to say they show 21% +/- 2% it’s no wonder YouGov’s statistics are so shaky – and frequently at odds with reality!

  39. 39
    Celebration says:

    A chance to tell the pointless miliband to f*ck off.

  40. 40
    Economist says:

    Problem with fiat fractional reserve though is that once credibility is broken, the jig is up.

    The trillion dollar coin being debated in the US at present shows the practical limits of this.

  41. 41
    geepeeoo says:

    And post box 8illy.
    Don’t forget the postal vote.

  42. 42
    Ed Bollxx says:

    It’s news to me!

  43. 43
    Anonymous says:

    peter kellner presides.
    He presi.d.e.nt.

  44. 44
    Anonymous says:

    don’t believe anyone.
    it is fib.
    truth at the edge.
    lucky to see…..”darkies” at the heart of the pro…j.e.c.t no.

  45. 45
    Corny old joker says:

    Don’t peak too early as the actress said to the bishop.

  46. 46
    Baroness Ashton says:

    Oh , I’ll still get my married couples EU pension, that’s enough to keep Peter going.

  47. 47
  48. 48
    Blowing Whistles says:

    Isn’t it interesting that few if any of the free press – dare to publish the relationship between Kellner and Baroness Ashton?

    As for the polling of yougov – I wrote some months back here that I was one of their pollsters for a couple of years – their polls are not balanced – they are skewed in favour of the party who pays for the poll. It’s all trickery and chicanery.

  49. 49
    Blowing Whistles says:

    Anyone got any news on the Huhne Trial that was supposed to have started today?

  50. 50
  51. 51
    How to deal with the liberal left says:

    Here is another way to deal with the liberal left:


    Geddit ?

  52. 52
    Here we go again says:

    Nells’s gearing up for another evening of bullsh!t

  53. 53
    rebekah aka nellnewman says:

    cameron has his faults but there is no politician on the planet that can claim gordon’s crown of being the worst politician/pm ever!!

  54. 54
    The BBC says:

    But he’s one of our favourite pollsters, his rates for TV appearances are quite low.

  55. 55
    Anonymous says:

    Anyone heard of rummer going around about the defection of a LD MP?

  56. 56
    Anonymous says:

    thin air…rarefied.
    creative lot can survive.
    with ego intact,
    the world they seek. debt sleigh….very. e.u.genie…ks…..pop.ulation reduction to minimum…. and.pa.ed.o….fill.ia.

    they will not stop.the a.r.y.a.n. for they…will master saturn too…..let cloning begin. the world of one man and his planet full of clones. no one is safe ..even the family of the ma.db.ad d.i.c.t.a.t.o.r

  57. 57
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    JH: “It’s all just numbers to me. What do they actually mean?”

    Private Secretary: “You’re screwed, Prime Minister”

  58. 58
    Sarah says:

    Remind me again who Kellner is married to?

  59. 59
    Bent Poll says:

    The Lib-Dem numbers look suspiciously high too. They have been polling in single figures for a while now.

  60. 60
    The Law says:

    What Huhne trial?

  61. 61
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    To sell you lamb, after we have given them some “special treatment”, of course.

    And to stop England floating off into the Atlantic, as well.

  62. 62
    Blowing Cocks says:

    Yeah – shock horror, it’s a great big CONSPIRACY! Wow, I bet that’s excited you…

  63. 63
    Sir William says:

    Would it be too complicated to ask “Which party do you expect to vote for in the European Elections”?

  64. 64
    Anonymous says:

    there is a physical, psychological, emotional and spiritual reason.
    no matter what the questioner asks.
    42 is just one aspect. we invite what we need in life….hence whales.
    economics is economic with the truth.
    though there is another viu.

  65. 65
    Mycroft says:

    Spot on.
    Kellner has been fixing the figures on UKIP for many months now through this silly two stage process. I actually take part. It has amused me to watch them include the LimpDems who are nowhere now and exclude UKIP from 1st choices. what sort of idiot would do that?

    Kellner is no fool, this is deliberate and he has eventually been caught out. Since the first really important national election is the EU elections in 2014, particularly stupid for a polling organisation that would want to retain credibility.

  66. 66
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    two more reasons,

    We are communists in disguise – as in our red gear the ladies wear, don’t be fooled by it looking nice.

    And to tell you english when rain is on it’s way to you, since we always get it first.

  67. 67
    Sir William says:

    Bar graph cut off at 10%. Sleazy presentational trick to make the LibDem and UKIP votes look even smaller.

  68. 68
    Red Egg Millitit... says:

    Kellner….. Baroness Ashton… ffs……. hardly an unbiased view!!

  69. 69
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    They must have only asked sandal jezuz-creepers wearers. Not an accurate poll, therefore.

  70. 70
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    Anyone remember Tower Records in Piccadilly? It’s a chiese restaurant or something these days. Used to spend hours in there.

    RIP HMV, but wasn’t Tower Records, but still. Bluddy online capitalism!

  71. 71
    Anonymous says:

    illuminati illuminate.
    join the circle.
    put you heart in the stonecold ovenhot world.

  72. 72
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    And by the way, quite a proportion of those one in 16 are pro rugger players, apparently.

  73. 73
    Immigrant says:

    As long as it’s slaughtered our cruel and inhuman way.

  74. 74
    String the fuckers up says:

    Cameron and Osborne are a couple of fools that wanted power and its trappings so badly that they lied and did anything to get it and when they got it, they hadn’t a clue what to do with it or how to handle it and they are certainly not able. This country is being run into the ground by an unelected pair of feckless narcissists aided and abetted and being kept in power by Nick Clegg, a Pike (Dad’s Army) lookalike who is as totally clueless as the character!

  75. 75

    Quite right. The second time it has happened here today. Shame! Why spoil a case when it is already good and getting better?

  76. 76

    Sorry, message cut off.

    Sent from my iPig

  77. 77

    Is it that brilliant statesperson and former CND nutter enobled by McMental and now licking the arses of Barroso and Rumpy Pumpy I cant even remember her name

  78. 78
    AngryEnglishJon says:

    So they only take choices on the opinions of the three main parties. That’ll be the tories, the socialists and UKIP then. certainly not the lib/dems. Wonder if that bloody Ashton woman told him what to do in their dungeon…

  79. 79
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    they go out with a smile on their face….

  80. 80

    Lets have more online capitlism and then I wont have to rub shoulders with plebs like you.

  81. 81
    In Reply says:

    I’ll try not to, but it might be too hard for me to keep from doing so, said the Bishop to the actress.

  82. 82
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    What I really want to know, just to shit-stir, how is Nick Gees party doing these days?

    Something about him I like, apolitically though.

  83. 83

    I wish you would not talk about people from the North East in this manner bonny lad,me grandad always voted Labour

  84. 84
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    ah, I see, Bee Enn Pee then… : )))

  85. 85

    More like Bishop to choir boy these days!

  86. 86
    Fishy says:

    It was sat on my Eurostar service to Brussels last year, with a young man acting as her bag carrier. Wearing what looked like a VERY expensive coat of many colours.

    She’s done well for herself as a party apparatchik, following the usual career path of loads of public sector / charity non-jobs

  87. 87
    Cocks Blown says:

    Read Illuminatus! trilogy, tell me not true… :-)

  88. 88
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    What? Afraid of catching the vomiting bug? Or other social diseases?

    Bet you wash your clothes in pure bleach.

  89. 89

    I voted for GB entry into EEC the worst judgement of my life,Cameron has got Friday to save his Party and more importantly our country he must offer in/out referendum,if he fudges then I will never vote Tory again,its now or never.

  90. 90
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    Hope eveverone gets the second ones of the two pairs of reasons above – there is hidden meaning in it, if you look closely enough, between the lines. Deep, man!

  91. 91
    V1le Labour ruined my Country says:

    Wait and see the results when everyone knows about the additional 10 million Bulgarian and Romanian immigrants on their way here.

  92. 92
    The EU says:

    We agree, as long as you vote for the correct candidate.

  93. 93
    Sir William says:

    Wales keeps the worst off the rain off us.

  94. 94
    Realist says:

    “Come 2015, UKIP’s support will fail to materialise.”
    Please carry on believing that old son, it will be so good to watch your face when reality dawns.

  95. 95
    Jon Snow says:

    I sleep with my bus pass under my pillow.

  96. 96

    And this isnt some scare story we will get million of bulgars,romas her they live in shit conditions so hey lets go to the promised land.I can see serious public disorder if this influx is not stopped,watching Pickles with Brillo the other day put the shits up me.

  97. 97
    They don't like it up em says:

    Vott is your name
    Don’t tell them Pike

  98. 98

    Fuck HMV and the whole recording industry.


    Sent from my iPig

  99. 99
    (I don't need no doctor) says:

    Ummuna on C4 news. Labour’s policy is to bail out HMV. Bandwagon bail out.

  100. 100
    Jim says:

    Many of these reports are only done for the BBC. People are becoming aware that they are selecting which report to publish from a selection of parameters to fit the news story they wish to promote. Andrew Neil nearly got caught last week and had to revisit his story in a second programme to avoid calling a guest mistaken, when he challenged the survey basis.

  101. 101
    Socialism = Starvation says:

    More than once.

  102. 102
    The Policy says:

    Catherine Ashton, Baroness Ashton of Upholland

    ” “Never elected by anyone, anywhere, totally unqualified for almost every job she has done, she has risen to her current position presumably through a combination of down-the-line Stalinist political correctness and the fact that she has the charisma of a caravan site on the Isle of Sheppey.””

    Rod Liddle

  103. 103
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    It’s our mountains, of our wimmin…

  104. 104

    He was being kind and generous

  105. 105
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    Slaver over this Sir William and you english dirty beasts,

  106. 106
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    you won’t win the war

    oh yes ve vill

    oh no you won’t

    hitler is a burke, he’s ‘alf barmey an’ his army…

  107. 107
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    oops, berk even – sorry Burkes.

  108. 108
    Blowing Whistles says:

    This hearing as listed to some of you pillocks:-

    The Crown Court

    at Southwark

    Daily List for Wednesday 16 January 2013 at English Grounds, off Battlebridge Lane


    Court 3


    SITTING AT 10:00 AM
    For Mention
    T20127076 HUHNE Christopher

    PRYCE Vasiliki

    Order made under Contempt of Court Act 1981

    SITTING AT 05:00 PM

    For Hearing

  109. 109
    Wilco says:

    38% for Labour shows how many immis have made it into the dear old land.

  110. 110
    Dave - balls of steel - Cameron says:

    Wasn’t Liddle born on the Isle of Sheppeyor did he just grow up there?

  111. 111
    Dave - balls of steel - Cameron says:

    Plenty more where they came from

  112. 112
    Ivor Biggan says:

    dear nell rebeca – quite right apart from last word – should be sphincter

  113. 113
    Anonymous says:

    Good luck UKIP – keep up the pressure! A good opportunity to expose Cameron will come on Friday!

  114. 114
    Boudicca says:

    I wouldn’t believe Kellner if he told me the time.

  115. 115
    Anonymous says:

    According to leaks, Cameron will deliver the most wishy-washy sit-on-the-fence speech imaginable. Are we surprised?

  116. 116
    skippy says:

    thats only if you pull your foreskin for the last three inches!!!

  117. 117
    John Merrick says:


  118. 118
    Arthur Foxache II says:

    It’s a shame that the polling slip won’t be as kind to the LibLabCon coalition

  119. 119
    Jimmy says:

    Sadly for the Lemon Party, General Elections are also biased against them.

  120. 120
    Blowing Whistles says:

    To B.Cks – nice try at being a professional troll / distract merchant – F me you and your paymasters really are scraping the barrel. RSOLES.

  121. 121
    Blowing Whistles says:

    Is Syria really implicated in the true truth behind Lockerbie and how many other dastardly secrets were uncovered in Libya?

    ColH of flaklands according to many versions I have heard of was a ‘nutjob’.

  122. 122
    Curly says:

    All LibDem MPs are defective in some way. It’s in their DNA.

  123. 123
    Curly says:

    So he is in fact up the “pole”.

  124. 124
    Curly says:

    No. But that method would not produce the desired result.

  125. 125
    Thortfull says:

    Bloke on the telly the other day was saying that the US debt ceiling was a load of bollocks and should be done away with so the world can just get on with it.

    If I owe the bank $10,000 I have a problem; but if I owe the bank $10 million, they have a problem.

    The world will continue merrily on its way….

  126. 126
    Matilda says:

    Her BarrowNess Ashtray will frown most severely..

  127. 127
    Matilda says:

    Did she mean ‘peak’ or ‘peek’?

  128. 128
    Matilda says:

    if she walks around dressed like that in Wales, she is going to catch a nasty chesty cough.

  129. 129
    Peerages is us says:

    ‘Berk’ is derived from “Berkshire Hunt”, [with the unspoken accent on the second word – rhyming slang] so you have now gravely insulted a vast swathe of the population in central England. Solicitors’ letters may be expected shortly.

  130. 130
    Curly says:

    He’s a fence-sitting mugwump – mug on one side and wump on the other.

  131. 131
    Last time Oliver tried horse, he was shagging 'is misses says:

    I am sure I will get over it.

  132. 132
    Last time Oliver tried horse, he was shagging 'is misses says:

    But saying that Peerages, since you have posted just recently, a song about it, these berkshire people and all that, from there, that I have noticed, in my time,

  133. 133
    Last time Oliver tried horse, he was shagging 'is misses says:

    bronchitis is a way of life in Wales, ones chested. It’s all the rain see, honest.

  134. 134
    Quiet Bat Person says:

    Banks create money. But they do not create a penny of wealth, they simply steal it.

  135. 135
    Popeye says:

    It’s none other than that high panjandrum, baroness the Catherine Ashton.

  136. 136
    Llimsj says:

    YouGuv have form on this sort of thing. Remember their polling before the election. And Kellner is married to that Labourite waste of space in charge of EU foreign policy.

  137. 137
    Buster Gut says:

    er…labour voter all my loif, now vote ukip.
    UKIP should maximise attention on the wind farm subsidies stealing money from freezing old ladies.

  138. 138
  139. 139
    Anonymous says:

  140. 140
    Archie says:

    + several thousand!

  141. 141
    Archie says:

    Stupid boy!

  142. 142
    John Smith says:

    Sign this petition to allow UKIP to take part in the 2015 TV election debates:


  143. 143
    Anonymous says:

    you may wish to Know

    Peter Kellner is President of YouGov. His wife Catherine Ashton, Baroness Ashton of Upholland is Vice-President of the European Commission.

    Draw your own conclusions.

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