January 15th, 2013

YouGov Reverse Ferret Over Harsh UKIP Poll

YouGov boss Peter Kellner has clarified this morning’s poll putting UKIP on a suspiciously low 17% for the Euro elections. With ComRes placing UKIP’s European Parliament ratings at 23% and Survation at 22% over the past week, the YouGov poll seemed considerably off. Kellner explains that the 17% figure was arrived at using the “two-stage” prompting method where the initial choice is only between the main three parties. When UKIP were prompted, YouGov found they had a rating of 19%. As Kellner says: “To put it another way, on a like-with like basis, we all put UKIP’s EP support at 21% plus or minus two”And it’s only going to go one way from here…


143 Comments

  1. 1
    Lizzie says:

    Well, if you start the ‘two stage ‘process suggesting three options which folks have to choose between you’re bound to underestimate at the second stage when you introduce the fourth option because people will have an inbuilt resistance to ‘changing’ their choice. It’s one of the classic ways to manipulate a poll!

    Like

    • 58
      Sarah says:

      Remind me again who Kellner is married to?

      Like

      • 77
        IT WILL BE BLEAK IN SUNDERLAND IN 2013 WITH ONLY ONE FOOD BANK AND THREE USELESS LABOUR MPS says:

        Is it that brilliant statesperson and former CND nutter enobled by McMental and now licking the arses of Barroso and Rumpy Pumpy I cant even remember her name

        Like

        • 86
          Fishy says:

          It was sat on my Eurostar service to Brussels last year, with a young man acting as her bag carrier. Wearing what looked like a VERY expensive coat of many colours.

          She’s done well for herself as a party apparatchik, following the usual career path of loads of public sector / charity non-jobs

          Like

          • IT WILL BE BLEAK IN SUNDERLAND IN 2013 WITH ONLY ONE FOOD BANK AND THREE USELESS LABOUR MPS says:

            I voted for GB entry into EEC the worst judgement of my life,Cameron has got Friday to save his Party and more importantly our country he must offer in/out referendum,if he fudges then I will never vote Tory again,its now or never.

            Like

          • V1le Labour ruined my Country says:

            Wait and see the results when everyone knows about the additional 10 million Bulgarian and Romanian immigrants on their way here.

            Like

          • IT WILL BE BLEAK IN SUNDERLAND IN 2013 WITH ONLY ONE FOOD BANK AND THREE USELESS LABOUR MPS says:

            And this isnt some scare story we will get million of bulgars,romas her they live in shit conditions so hey lets go to the promised land.I can see serious public disorder if this influx is not stopped,watching Pickles with Brillo the other day put the shits up me.

            Like

      • 102
        The Policy says:

        Catherine Ashton, Baroness Ashton of Upholland

        ” “Never elected by anyone, anywhere, totally unqualified for almost every job she has done, she has risen to her current position presumably through a combination of down-the-line Stalinist political correctness and the fact that she has the charisma of a caravan site on the Isle of Sheppey.””

        Rod Liddle

        Like

      • 135
        Popeye says:

        It’s none other than that high panjandrum, baroness the Catherine Ashton.

        Like

      • 139
        Anonymous says:

        Like

    • 59
      Bent Poll says:

      The Lib-Dem numbers look suspiciously high too. They have been polling in single figures for a while now.

      Like

      • 69
        Jim Hacker the blagger says:

        They must have only asked sandal jezuz-creepers wearers. Not an accurate poll, therefore.

        Like

    • 65
      Mycroft says:

      Lizzie
      Spot on.
      Kellner has been fixing the figures on UKIP for many months now through this silly two stage process. I actually take part. It has amused me to watch them include the LimpDems who are nowhere now and exclude UKIP from 1st choices. what sort of idiot would do that?

      Kellner is no fool, this is deliberate and he has eventually been caught out. Since the first really important national election is the EU elections in 2014, particularly stupid for a polling organisation that would want to retain credibility.

      Like

    • 78
      AngryEnglishJon says:

      So they only take choices on the opinions of the three main parties. That’ll be the tories, the socialists and UKIP then. certainly not the lib/dems. Wonder if that bloody Ashton woman told him what to do in their dungeon…

      Like

  2. 2
    Chuka Umunna says:

    I’ll buy that (as long as its not at HMV)

    Like

    • 10
      Anonymous says:

      If UKIP can get 21%, Cameron Conservatives will be 3rd.

      Like

      • 17
        Anonymous says:

        The Tories are cutting YOUR benefits to enable them to pay benefits to all the Bulgarian and Rumanians who will be flooding the country in 2014. We have to pay them its an EU rule.
        Free family allowance, housing benefit, jobseekers, invalidity, tax credits, not to mention free education in our overcrowded schools and free healthcare in our overloaded NHS. Nevermind we know you dont mind YOUR taxes paying for all this and you are no doubt thrilled that granny has just had to sell her home after a lifetimes contribution to the state to pay for care. This will be the catalist that sends the UKIP vote through the foof

        Tories have now called in Heseltine Clark and Madelson to tell us how terible it will be to leave the EU. Hang on a minuet aint these the same tossers who told us it would be a desaster if we didn’t join the Euro?

        What a bunch of jokers, you couldn’t make it up

        U Gove are the establishments PR organisation

        Like

      • 18
        Gooey Blob says:

        Tories will almost certainly be third in 2014. Come 2015, UKIP’s support will fail to materialise.

        It’s not rocket science.

        Like

        • 29

          No. But Kellner has a rather vested interest in suppressing popular support for UKIP does he not?

          After all, if the UK did go for withdrawal he’d be several 100,000 euros down on the family income plus he’d no longer have all the bed to himself Mon-fri.

          Like

        • 32
          Anonymous says:

          UKIP has become the natural home of the real conservatives. Last time they went back to Cameron Conservatives to get rid of Brown.

          Now they have realised Cameron is worse than Brown. As long as Cameron is the leader more and more real conservatives will vote UKIP.

          Like

        • 94
          Realist says:

          “Come 2015, UKIP’s support will fail to materialise.”
          Please carry on believing that old son, it will be so good to watch your face when reality dawns.

          Like

    • 12
      Anonymous says:

      Biggest surprise is LD polling 12%. I was expecting LD to poll around 8%, once Clegg name is mentioned, fall to 4%.

      Like

    • 70
      Jim Hacker the blagger says:

      Anyone remember Tower Records in Piccadilly? It’s a chiese restaurant or something these days. Used to spend hours in there.

      RIP HMV, but wasn’t Tower Records, but still. Bluddy online capitalism!

      Like

      • 80
        IT WILL BE BLEAK IN SUNDERLAND IN 2013 WITH ONLY ONE FOOD BANK AND THREE USELESS LABOUR MPS says:

        Lets have more online capitlism and then I wont have to rub shoulders with plebs like you.

        Like

        • 88
          Jim Hacker the blagger says:

          What? Afraid of catching the vomiting bug? Or other social diseases?

          Bet you wash your clothes in pure bleach.

          Like

  3. 3
    Kebab Time says:

    The only poll that matters is the one that involves a ballot box.

    Like

  4. 4
    Rusty says:

    Lib-who?

    Like

  5. 6
    Frederick says:

    Kellner’s wife is the hideous Cathy Ashton, euro foreign sectretary. He must hate ukip. So don’t believe anything from yougov when it relates to the eu.

    Like

  6. 8
    Bluto says:

    What Kellner (Mr Baroness Ashton) and YouGov does is to subjectively skew the poll to influence public opinion rather than objectively calculate the poll to accurately reflect it. It is a marketing tool of the left and Labour who know full well how conforming to the majority viewpoint is a tendency in dumbed-down, New Labour indoctrinated Britain.

    Very few members of the public will bother to read or understand Kellner’s qualifying caveat. The damage to UKIP has been done.

    Like

    • 16
      Mr Baroness Ashton (EU branch) says:

      “Very few members of the public will bother to read or understand Kellner’s qualifying caveat.”

      It’s really very simple: If you imagine an Airedale terrier jumping in and out of a watering can once every ten seconds and make the labour voter x ten then half the amount, it’s that simple.

      Vote labour.

      Like

    • 20
      Raving Loon says:

      Maybe the people have had enough BS rammed down their throat and will just ignore the poll.

      Like

    • 26
      rebekah aka nellnewman says:

      for the leftwing kellner to damage UKIP he would have to have influence with the electorate.

      I doubt the majority of the electorate are much interested in his views. It only his wife the baroness ashton and the westminster labour left who regard kellner’s views as influential.

      What is likely to influence support for UKIP for more will be whatever dave says re the in/out vote for th EU on friday.

      Like

  7. 11

    kellner is an arse anyway-anything that suits gov’t thinking and he’ll produce it! Complete turd!

    Like

  8. 13
    A bit of objectivity says:

    As usual, not an objective post. YouGov using the same technique over-estimated the UKIP vote in 2009 by 1.5%. The initial questionning actually asked voting preference between 4 parties plus “other” and projected using all the questions, although not filtering by intention to vote.

    Like

    • 27
      Gooey Blob says:

      ISTR YouGov consistently overstated Labour in the run-up to the last election. Only their final poll – less favourable to Labour – bore any resemblance to the result.

      About as reliable as ComRes, ie not very.

      Like

  9. 14
    Guido Joke says:

    Same as general election.

    Nice of you to finally notice

    Like

  10. 15
    Muswellhillbili says:

    YouGov’s (CON/LAB/LD) closed prompt method means they have CON/LAB/LD on 77% for 2014 – they only got 57% in 2009. It also means they have Greens, PC, SNP, BNP and the other small parties on ONLY 6% vs 25% in 2009!.

    Like

  11. 19
    Raving Loon says:

    Not bad that UKIP can poll 17% when only the 3 main parties are available.

    Like

  12. 23
    rebekah aka nellnewman says:

    I have never considered YouGov to be a balanced and unbiased source of polling results – one must always remember that kellner and his wife baroness ashton are firmly in the gordonbrown leftwing political spectrum.

    Like

  13. 25
    money out of thin air says:

    Fractional-reserve banking is the practice whereby banks retain only a portion of their customers’ deposits as readily available reserves (currency or deposits at the central bank) from which to satisfy demands for payment. The remainder of customer-deposited funds are used to fund investments or loans the bank makes to other customers. Most of these funds are later redeposited into banks, allowing further lending. Thus, fractional-reserve banking permits the money supply to grow to a multiple of the underlying reserves of base money originally created by the central bank.

    Like

    • 33
      Raving Loon says:

      “The bank hath benefit of interest on all moneys which it creates out of nothing.”

      William Paterson, founder of the Bank of England in 1694, then a privately owned bank.

      “Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.” Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744-1812), founder of the House of Rothschild.

      “The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favours that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests.” The Rothschild brothers of London writing to associates in New York, 1863.

      “Banking was conceived in iniquity and was born in sin. The Bankers own the Earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create deposits, and with the flick of a pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again. However, take it away from them, and all the fortunes like mine will disappear, and they ought to disappear, for this world would be a happier and better world to live in. But if you wish to remain slaves of the Bankers and pay for the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create deposits.” Sir Josiah Stamp, President of the Bank of England in the 1920s, the second richest man in Britain.

      “I am afraid the ordinary citizen will not like to be told that the banks can and do create money. And they who control the credit of the nation direct the policy of Governments and hold in the hollow of their hand the destiny of the people.” Reginald McKenna, as Chairman of the Midland Bank, addressing stockholders in 1924.

      “The banks do create money. They have been doing it for a long time, but they didn’t realise it, and they did not admit it. Very few did. You will find it in all sorts of documents, financial textbooks, etc. But in the intervening years, and we must be perfectly frank about these things, there has been a development of thought, until today I doubt very much whether you would get many prominent bankers to attempt to deny that banks create it.” H W White, Chairman of the Associated Banks of New Zealand, to the New Zealand Monetary Commission, 1955.

      Like

      • 56
        Anonymous says:

        thin air…rarefied.
        creative lot can survive.
        with ego intact,
        the world they seek. debt sleigh….very. e.u.genie…ks…..pop.ulation reduction to minimum…. and.pa.ed.o….fill.ia.

        they will not stop.the a.r.y.a.n. for they…will master saturn too…..let cloning begin. the world of one man and his planet full of clones. no one is safe ..even the family of the ma.db.ad d.i.c.t.a.t.o.r

        Like

    • 34
      rebekah aka nellnewman says:

      Well the banks might make money out of loaning out our money at huge rates of interest whilst we the depositors are not making any money out of the pitiful 1% interest the banks are paying us

      It is time government forced the banks to pay a fair and decent rate of interest to investors it pensioners.

      Like

    • 35

      Have you only just realised this?
      Even the dumbest northern rock, 125% of mortgage, 6 maxed out credit cards, everything on HP, 5 holidays a year voter has known this for quite some time.

      Like

      • 42
        Ed Bollxx says:

        It’s news to me!

        Like

      • 83
        IT WILL BE BLEAK IN SUNDERLAND IN 2013 WITH ONLY ONE FOOD BANK AND THREE USELESS LABOUR MPS says:

        I wish you would not talk about people from the North East in this manner bonny lad,me grandad always voted Labour

        Like

    • 40
      Economist says:

      Problem with fiat fractional reserve though is that once credibility is broken, the jig is up.

      The trillion dollar coin being debated in the US at present shows the practical limits of this.

      Like

      • 125
        Thortfull says:

        Bloke on the telly the other day was saying that the US debt ceiling was a load of bollocks and should be done away with so the world can just get on with it.

        If I owe the bank $10,000 I have a problem; but if I owe the bank $10 million, they have a problem.

        The world will continue merrily on its way….

        Like

      • 134
        Quiet Bat Person says:

        Banks create money. But they do not create a penny of wealth, they simply steal it.

        Like

  14. 36
    Strategy says:

    UKIP have captured the middle ground. Onward consolidation and eating into Labour territory is now required, which they are doing.

    Gut feel is telling me that the backlash against PC b/s could actually swing more votes their may in the event of further ‘errors of judgement’ being widely reported.

    Things can only go in one direction for them unless they do something very dumb like aligning with one of the LIBLABCON ‘liberal’ parties.

    If that happens then the only democratic option will be insurrection. YouGov definitely will not want to support that.

    Like

  15. 38
    Lizzie says:

    If Kellner really thinks that you can take three different polls, with different sample sizes and methods, and simply add them together to say they show 21% +/- 2% it’s no wonder YouGov’s statistics are so shaky – and frequently at odds with reality!

    Like

    • 100
      Jim says:

      Many of these reports are only done for the BBC. People are becoming aware that they are selecting which report to publish from a selection of parameters to fit the news story they wish to promote. Andrew Neil nearly got caught last week and had to revisit his story in a second programme to avoid calling a guest mistaken, when he challenged the survey basis.

      Like

  16. 45
    Corny old joker says:

    Don’t peak too early as the actress said to the bishop.

    Like

  17. 47
  18. 48
    Blowing Whistles says:

    Isn’t it interesting that few if any of the free press – dare to publish the relationship between Kellner and Baroness Ashton?

    As for the polling of yougov – I wrote some months back here that I was one of their pollsters for a couple of years – their polls are not balanced – they are skewed in favour of the party who pays for the poll. It’s all trickery and chicanery.

    Like

  19. 49
    Blowing Whistles says:

    Anyone got any news on the Huhne Trial that was supposed to have started today?

    Like

    • 60
      The Law says:

      What Huhne trial?

      Like

    • 62
      Blowing Cocks says:

      Yeah – shock horror, it’s a great big CONSPIRACY! Wow, I bet that’s excited you…

      Like

      • 71
        Anonymous says:

        illuminati illuminate.
        join the circle.
        put you heart in the stonecold ovenhot world.
        1s
        …..t.
        then
        again….and…..gobacktothenagain.

        Like

      • 120
        Blowing Whistles says:

        To B.Cks – nice try at being a professional troll / distract merchant – F me you and your paymasters really are scraping the barrel. RSOLES.

        Like

    • 108
      Blowing Whistles says:

      This hearing as listed to some of you pillocks:-

      The Crown Court

      at Southwark

      Daily List for Wednesday 16 January 2013 at English Grounds, off Battlebridge Lane

      ——————————————————————————–

      Court 3

      BEFORE THE HONOURABLE MR JUSTICE SWEENEY (2)

      SITTING AT 10:00 AM
      For Mention
      T20127076 HUHNE Christopher

      PRYCE Vasiliki

      Order made under Contempt of Court Act 1981

      SITTING AT 05:00 PM

      For Hearing
      U20130039 SWEARING IN CEREMONY – RECORDER JONATHAN SEELEY

      Like

  20. 50
  21. 51
    How to deal with the liberal left says:

    Here is another way to deal with the liberal left:

    http://juliesthinktank.wordpress.com/2013/01/15/julie-burchill-and-the-cult-of-political-correctness/

    Geddit ?

    Like

  22. 57
    Jim Hacker the blagger says:

    JH: “It’s all just numbers to me. What do they actually mean?”

    Private Secretary: “You’re screwed, Prime Minister”

    Like

  23. 67
    Sir William says:

    Bar graph cut off at 10%. Sleazy presentational trick to make the LibDem and UKIP votes look even smaller.

    Like

  24. 68
    Red Egg Millitit... says:

    Kellner….. Baroness Ashton… ffs……. hardly an unbiased view!!

    Like

  25. 74
    String the fuckers up says:

    Cameron and Osborne are a couple of fools that wanted power and its trappings so badly that they lied and did anything to get it and when they got it, they hadn’t a clue what to do with it or how to handle it and they are certainly not able. This country is being run into the ground by an unelected pair of feckless narcissists aided and abetted and being kept in power by Nick Clegg, a Pike (Dad’s Army) lookalike who is as totally clueless as the character!

    Like

    • 82
      Jim Hacker the blagger says:

      What I really want to know, just to shit-stir, how is Nick Gees party doing these days?

      Something about him I like, apolitically though.

      Like

    • 97
      They don't like it up em says:

      Vott is your name
      Don’t tell them Pike

      Like

      • 106
        Jim Hacker the blagger says:

        you won’t win the war

        oh yes ve vill

        oh no you won’t

        hitler is a burke, he’s ‘alf barmey an’ his army…

        Like

        • 107
          Jim Hacker the blagger says:

          oops, berk even – sorry Burkes.

          Like

          • Peerages is us says:

            ‘Berk’ is derived from “Berkshire Hunt”, [with the unspoken accent on the second word - rhyming slang] so you have now gravely insulted a vast swathe of the population in central England. Solicitors’ letters may be expected shortly.

            Like

          • Last time Oliver tried horse, he was shagging 'is misses says:

            I am sure I will get over it.

            Like

          • Last time Oliver tried horse, he was shagging 'is misses says:

            But saying that Peerages, since you have posted just recently, a song about it, these berkshire people and all that, from there, that I have noticed, in my time,

            Like

    • 141
      Archie says:

      Stupid boy!

      Like

  26. 95
    Jon Snow says:

    I sleep with my bus pass under my pillow.

    Like

  27. 98

    Fuck HMV and the whole recording industry.

    Parasites.

    Sent from my iPig

    Like

  28. 99
    (I don't need no doctor) says:

    Ummuna on C4 news. Labour’s policy is to bail out HMV. Bandwagon bail out.

    Like

  29. 109
    Wilco says:

    38% for Labour shows how many immis have made it into the dear old land.

    Like

  30. 113
    Anonymous says:

    Good luck UKIP – keep up the pressure! A good opportunity to expose Cameron will come on Friday!

    Like

  31. 115
    Anonymous says:

    According to leaks, Cameron will deliver the most wishy-washy sit-on-the-fence speech imaginable. Are we surprised?

    Like

  32. 119
    Jimmy says:

    Sadly for the Lemon Party, General Elections are also biased against them.

    Like

  33. 121
    Blowing Whistles says:

    Is Syria really implicated in the true truth behind Lockerbie and how many other dastardly secrets were uncovered in Libya?

    ColH of flaklands according to many versions I have heard of was a ‘nutjob’.

    Like

  34. 136
    Llimsj says:

    YouGuv have form on this sort of thing. Remember their polling before the election. And Kellner is married to that Labourite waste of space in charge of EU foreign policy.

    Like

  35. 138
  36. 142
    John Smith says:

    Sign this petition to allow UKIP to take part in the 2015 TV election debates:

    http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/43153

    Like

  37. 143
    Anonymous says:

    you may wish to Know

    Peter Kellner is President of YouGov. His wife Catherine Ashton, Baroness Ashton of Upholland is Vice-President of the European Commission.

    Draw your own conclusions.

    Like


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Lord Glasman tells it like it is:

“The first thing is to acknowledge that Labour has been captured by a kind of aggressive public sector morality which is concerned with the individual and the collective but doesn’t understand relationships.”



Owen Jones says:

We also need Zil lanes.


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