January 5th, 2013

Quote of the Day

Met Office, which claims to be better at longer range than short term forecasting, forecast for March 2012…

“The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period… This forecast is based on information from observations, several numerical models and expert judgement.”


43 Comments

  1. 1
    Anonymous says:

    Give it up lads. You haven’t got a clue ! Lol

  2. 2
    confused of barking says:

    what is the point of this? you do understand that a forecast is just that, a forecast? what bizarre, arcane political point are you trying to make? was it done by a Liberal or someone who once said they thought Mrs Thatcher was a bit silly?

    it is a Saturday, surely you have something better to do? as do I come to think of it.

  3. 3
    Greychatter says:

    “A Expert” – someone who costs the Taxpayer Money.

  4. 4
    Snaplegs says:

    Expert judgement – oh really!

  5. 5
    digitaltoast says:

    You say “Met Office, which claims to be better at longer range than short term forecasting”.

    The Met Office says:

    “”The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.”

    Can you tell me where you saw their claim at being better at long-term than short-term forecasts?

    You stop quoting right where it then says:

    “The probability that UK precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into
    the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%)”.

    The report you linked to also says:

    “Predicting month to month variations in rainfall at long-lead times
    remains very difficult. However there are hints from some computer
    model forecasts that as we move through May and on into June the jet
    stream over the North Atlantic may tend to edge southwards, which, if
    it happened, would probably lead to an increase in rainfall across the
    UK”.

    So your point is….?

  6. 6
    Greychatter says:

    “An” Expert – sorry. Go to Preview before submitting text.

  7. 7
    A W_G says:

    From the people who gave us Global warming and carbon taxation . . . . . . . all we need to fix things, is a gallows, some rope and Boris the hangman from Blazing Saddles

  8. 8
    confused of barking says:

    Guido in selective quoting shocker.

  9. 9

    They forecast it was twice as likely to be dry as wet. It was Noah’s ark wet.

  10. 10
    confused of barking says:

    you are a total idiot Guido. I despair that people as willfully ignorant and intentionally destructive as you help set the news agenda in this country. outside of your own echo chamber, you do the cause of the right no good whatsoever with all this constant yaa boo crap.

  11. 11
    sir boffton toffton mp - what says:

    I’ve told yer before – we need a judge-led hospipe ban

  12. 12
    i say i bray you pay says:

    Q what have the met office’s forecast and the conliberative cabinet in common?

    A they’re both dry but wet

    all: ho ho very funny

  13. 13
    Moy Noym Is Mikul Fish says:

    Well after my little mistake – they installed a toin coss algorithm inside a “black box” wrapper in the heart of the system. The top boffins seemed to think a coin toss gave a more reliable result than the mind boggling code that nobody understood because the “genius” that wrote the code didn’t believe is the use of constants as a result the code became illegible to all including the guy who wrote it and impossible to maintain!

  14. 14
    one stop short of dagenham says:

    they can only survive because first class chaps like you read what they print – and react as you do

  15. 15
    look back in Ongar says:

    ‘ere! r u and angry old man?

  16. 16
    e& oe says:

    please sub ‘an’ for ‘and’ in the above

  17. 17
    Moy Noym Is Mikul Fish says:

    “toin coss” ??? Ooops a Berlinian slip! lol

  18. 18
    confused of barking says:

    don’t get me wrong, i do enjoy the blog, it’s why i come here but sometimes i just think what on earth are they on about, what obscure point is being made, is it just abuse of something for abuses sake.

  19. 19
    its all bollox says:

    thang kew Mikul

    judging by the horde of hand-waving, peculiarly dressed, grinning chronic enthusiasts who ‘present the weather’ (sic) these days – you have been a creator of an enormous number of non-jobs

  20. 20
    its all bollox says:

    wark my mords!

  21. 21
    the poor bloody tax-payer says:

    yes that’s what amused me when reading that MilliRand was being paid as an adviser to an oil company in an east african country whose government’s running costs are paid for by the PBT

    flies to a freshly laid turd?

  22. 22
    David B says:

    A very reliable forecasting model is take the lead headline from the man made global warming supporters and then expect the opposit. It has been very reliable for a number of years now

  23. 23
    Bobski says:

    This time last year the bbc were stoking up fears of living in perpetual drought due to climate change, this last week, they’ve been reporting wetter summers and colder winters are now expected due to, of course, climate change. Make your minds up lads (and lasses).

  24. 24
    Ah! Monika 2013 +1 says:

  25. 25
    David B says:

    But that’s the point. The forecast are probability but the headlines on the BBC or from the IPCC make them sound absolute.

  26. 26
    Four-eyed English Genius says:

    I think these guys should get back to forecasting Anthropogenic Global Warming!

  27. 27
    David B says:

    They have been at that for a while. The question appears to be “How did man made global warming cause a specific weather event?”

  28. 28
    Raining Datsun cogs says:

    I’ve studied the weather for over forty years and there isn’t a better, more accurate, website than this: http://www.stickyourbloodyheadoutthewindow.com

  29. 29
    Throbber says:

    Now they’re forecasting more wet for the foreseeable future. I’m off to William hills to put the house in a drought this summer.

  30. 30
    St. Tony Blair says:

    Twice in two years. For all of those who remember the fabulous “BBQ Summer” of 2010. Another washout.

  31. 31
    illogical says:

    Long range or short range forecasts apart, I believe Guido is free range – with a penchant for encouraging headless chickens to frequent his site. ;)

  32. 32
    Dustin Hoffman says:

    Got me!

  33. 33
    Clam says:

    To be fair it does say:

    “The signals from different sources are not strong enough this month for
    us to anticipate any specific regional variations in forecast rainfall
    relative to long term averages.
    Predicting month to month variations in rainfall at longlead
    times remains very difficult. However there are hints from some computer
    model forecasts that as we move through May and on into June the jet
    stream over the North Atlantic may tend to edge southwards, which, if
    it happened, would probably lead to an increase in rainfall across the
    UK.”

  34. 34
    Clam says:

    So what about also quoting the occasions when the met office got their predictions right rather than indulging in the usual cherry picking? A 66% probability means that the prediction will likely only be right twice every three times. So what is your problem, Guido? Unless you do not understand what probability means.

  35. 35
    Clam says:

    A better question would be ‘How can consistently rising greenhouse gases like CO2 in the atmosphere, caused by 8 million humans, NOT cause global warming’?

  36. 36
    a non says:

    8 million.
    How I wish it were true.

  37. 37
    Crabwaladr Moonpatch says:

    The morons don’t even see the inconsistency in their claim that they are better at long-term forecasting than short-term. If this were true, they would be referring back to a previous long-term forecast for tomorrow’s weather, rather than trying to short-range forecast it today.

  38. 38
    Grumpy Old Man says:

    A forecast is not a guess, but a reasonable estimate based upon knowledge and experience. If the Met were bookies, they’d be long bust by now.

  39. 39
  40. 40
    Pundit too too says:

    6 weeks ago they were on BBC stating that they are not so good at long term weather forecasting, as there are too many variables.
    Lets face it they are not very professional considering the hundreds of millions of £’s spent on computer upgrades, satelite infrastructure, and modelling software.

  41. 41
    Pundit too too says:

    Complex!
    We do not understand it so you have no chance of understanding it.
    Word used by financial and weather economists and forecasters, BBC, eco-warriors, and of course Westminster of all parties.

  42. 42
    BBC British Bias and Corruption at its best. says:

    We are trying to place the blame for our weathr inacuracy on the third party Department of Global Change somewhere in our new cellars.

  43. 43
    BBC British Bias and Corruption at its best. says:

    They have gone AWOL – we need a fourth party to blame – try again.


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