Quote of the Day
Met Office, which claims to be better at longer range than short term forecasting, forecast for March 2012…
“The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier-than-average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period… This forecast is based on information from observations, several numerical models and expert judgement.”
Give it up lads. You haven’t got a clue ! Lol
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/image16.png
To be fair it does say:
“The signals from different sources are not strong enough this month for
us to anticipate any specific regional variations in forecast rainfall
relative to long term averages.
Predicting month to month variations in rainfall at longlead
times remains very difficult. However there are hints from some computer
model forecasts that as we move through May and on into June the jet
stream over the North Atlantic may tend to edge southwards, which, if
it happened, would probably lead to an increase in rainfall across the
UK.”
The morons don’t even see the inconsistency in their claim that they are better at long-term forecasting than short-term. If this were true, they would be referring back to a previous long-term forecast for tomorrow’s weather, rather than trying to short-range forecast it today.
6 weeks ago they were on BBC stating that they are not so good at long term weather forecasting, as there are too many variables.
Lets face it they are not very professional considering the hundreds of millions of £’s spent on computer upgrades, satelite infrastructure, and modelling software.
what is the point of this? you do understand that a forecast is just that, a forecast? what bizarre, arcane political point are you trying to make? was it done by a Liberal or someone who once said they thought Mrs Thatcher was a bit silly?
it is a Saturday, surely you have something better to do? as do I come to think of it.
A forecast is not a guess, but a reasonable estimate based upon knowledge and experience. If the Met were bookies, they’d be long bust by now.
“A Expert” – someone who costs the Taxpayer Money.
“An” Expert – sorry. Go to Preview before submitting text.
Expert judgement – oh really!
yes that’s what amused me when reading that MilliRand was being paid as an adviser to an oil company in an east african country whose government’s running costs are paid for by the PBT
flies to a freshly laid turd?
You say “Met Office, which claims to be better at longer range than short term forecasting”.
The Met Office says:
“”The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.”
Can you tell me where you saw their claim at being better at long-term than short-term forecasts?
You stop quoting right where it then says:
“The probability that UK precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into
the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%)”.
The report you linked to also says:
“Predicting month to month variations in rainfall at long-lead times
remains very difficult. However there are hints from some computer
model forecasts that as we move through May and on into June the jet
stream over the North Atlantic may tend to edge southwards, which, if
it happened, would probably lead to an increase in rainfall across the
UK”.
So your point is….?
Guido in selective quoting shocker.
They forecast it was twice as likely to be dry as wet. It was Noah’s ark wet.
you are a total idiot Guido. I despair that people as willfully ignorant and intentionally destructive as you help set the news agenda in this country. outside of your own echo chamber, you do the cause of the right no good whatsoever with all this constant yaa boo crap.
they can only survive because first class chaps like you read what they print – and react as you do
don’t get me wrong, i do enjoy the blog, it’s why i come here but sometimes i just think what on earth are they on about, what obscure point is being made, is it just abuse of something for abuses sake.
Long range or short range forecasts apart, I believe Guido is free range – with a penchant for encouraging headless chickens to frequent his site.
‘ere! r u and angry old man?
please sub ‘an’ for ‘and’ in the above
So what about also quoting the occasions when the met office got their predictions right rather than indulging in the usual cherry picking? A 66% probability means that the prediction will likely only be right twice every three times. So what is your problem, Guido? Unless you do not understand what probability means.
But that’s the point. The forecast are probability but the headlines on the BBC or from the IPCC make them sound absolute.
Complex!
We do not understand it so you have no chance of understanding it.
Word used by financial and weather economists and forecasters, BBC, eco-warriors, and of course Westminster of all parties.
From the people who gave us Global warming and carbon taxation . . . . . . . all we need to fix things, is a gallows, some rope and Boris the hangman from Blazing Saddles
I’ve told yer before – we need a judge-led hospipe ban
Q what have the met office’s forecast and the conliberative cabinet in common?
A they’re both dry but wet
all: ho ho very funny
Well after my little mistake – they installed a toin coss algorithm inside a “black box” wrapper in the heart of the system. The top boffins seemed to think a coin toss gave a more reliable result than the mind boggling code that nobody understood because the “genius” that wrote the code didn’t believe is the use of constants as a result the code became illegible to all including the guy who wrote it and impossible to maintain!
thang kew Mikul
judging by the horde of hand-waving, peculiarly dressed, grinning chronic enthusiasts who ‘present the weather’ (sic) these days – you have been a creator of an enormous number of non-jobs
“toin coss” ??? Ooops a Berlinian slip! lol
wark my mords!
A very reliable forecasting model is take the lead headline from the man made global warming supporters and then expect the opposit. It has been very reliable for a number of years now
This time last year the bbc were stoking up fears of living in perpetual drought due to climate change, this last week, they’ve been reporting wetter summers and colder winters are now expected due to, of course, climate change. Make your minds up lads (and lasses).
They have been at that for a while. The question appears to be “How did man made global warming cause a specific weather event?”
A better question would be ‘How can consistently rising greenhouse gases like CO2 in the atmosphere, caused by 8 million humans, NOT cause global warming’?
8 million.
How I wish it were true.
We are trying to place the blame for our weathr inacuracy on the third party Department of Global Change somewhere in our new cellars.
Now they’re forecasting more wet for the foreseeable future. I’m off to William hills to put the house in a drought this summer.
I think these guys should get back to forecasting Anthropogenic Global Warming!
I’ve studied the weather for over forty years and there isn’t a better, more accurate, website than this: http://www.stickyourbloodyheadoutthewindow.com
Got me!
Except it’s down… http://isup.me/http://www.stickyourbloodyheadoutthewindow.com/
They have gone AWOL – we need a fourth party to blame – try again.
Twice in two years. For all of those who remember the fabulous “BBQ Summer” of 2010. Another washout.