Back in August Guido pointed out that

“the Cameroons like to remind the disgruntled Tory right of a simple bit of coalition electoral arithmetic: Tories on 34% + LibDems on 8% = 42%, just about enough to form a government again in 2015. Well UKIP have been also been polling between 6% to 10% for over a year now. If those right-of-centre voters could be brought back into the Conservative Party embrace they would have a good chance of forming a majority government. UKIP have no MPs in Westminster under first past the post, they do however have plenty of voters for Westminster elections.”

The Indy’s John Rentoul said Guido was mad. Today his paper is front paging a report written by Mike Fabricant, the Conservative Party’s vice-chairman for Campaigns, making the same case for a Tory-UKIP pact:

Guido also reported Charles Tannock MEP producing a briefing note making similar points last month.  Increasingly Tory MPs see activists, especially young activists, shifting their allegiance to UKIP. Without the boundary review and a rapprochement with UKIP voters the Tories are going to lose in some 20 seats – unnecessarily. Downing Street is kidding itself if it believes Andrew Cooper’s claims that UKIP votes are going to melt away at the general election…