November 7th, 2012

Profundity of the Punditry: Romney Victory Special

And so the time comes to name and shame those who have been left red-faced by their ill-advised presidential predictions. We all make bad calls sometimes, but since Nate Silver was sent to save the world from this sort of thing, there really is no excuse. Top of the pile is the Telegraph’s Janet Daley, who had the misfortune of backing Mitt Romney after failing to tip John Major in 1992. After all, “I lost my chance to be the only political journalist to have made a correct prediction of that momentous election in print. Wouldn’t want that to happen again”. It didn’t…

Meanwhile American pollster Dick Morris put his misguided pipe-dream prediction that Romney would take home 325 electoral college votes down to the minority vote pulling through, while the expertly-coiffed Tim Stanley insisted that Mitt had the ‘x-factor’. Election specialist James Delingpole thought Romney had it, while Charles Moore thought his gaffes were a sign he would end up in the White House. The Sun’s Louise Mensch was insisting it wasn’t over way into the wee hours on Sky News last night…


46 Comments

  1. 1
    Kebab Time says:

    Most sane people knew Obama would win, USA President only gets max of to terms ( plus Romney was pretty rubbish) .

    What made me laugh was the left and the way they kept sayin *this is close* , jesus H christ , Romney was that bad Gordon could have beat him in an election

    Like

    • 6
      McBonkers says:

      Indeed, I as good sent everyone away two years ago (TWO sonny – I can do adding) – in fact I should still be in Drowning St.

      Like

      • 22
        Earl Grey says:

        I bet my house on Janet Daley’s prediction.

        I have always considered her analysis to be spot on.
        I cannot tell you how disappointed I am.

        Like

        • 38
          lojolondon says:

          As long as you are robbing Peter to pay Paul, you always get 100% of Paul’s vote. Same in the UK with Liebour.

          Like

    • 9
      Anonymous says:

      Romney had problem with women, minorities, poor men, etc. He even wrote of 47% of voters. He wanted to get ride of the health care poor gets.

      Surprise is people, still expected him to win.

      Like

    • 11
      Anonymous says:

      This is the man who closed business in USA and shipped jobs to China. His son went to Russia to raise money, while daddy is saying things about Russia.

      Like

    • 12
      Anonymous says:

      Like

    • 15
      Anonymous says:

      He used to close business and send jobs China, if he has won millions of jobs would have been sent to China, Mexico, etc. This was his job plan for America.

      Like

      • 34
        green ink says:

        The syntax of the presidential contest shows that in a democracy of mixed groupings the hold on political control is moving away from republican type pleadings to voters.

        No president could have turned the american economy around in 4 years after the meltown in october 2008.

        Bill Clinton inherited an economy in debt put there by 12 years of republican bloat… he turned that round to a good surplus in 8 years, George W put paid to that very quickly and left Obama an unprecedented $13 trillion tab to sort out….on top of the most serious realtime worldwide economic crisis since the depression. Obama couldn’t walk on water and 4 years later nor could anyone else. (Ed and Ed …are you listening ?)

        Romney’s argument that they knew best how to take America forward was unconvincing.

        Perhaps as worrying was his complete lack of a considered global vision with so many gaffes it would appear to be congenital.

        A new Chinese regime emerges on thursday…a new american president at the same time might have been an ‘extraordinary’ prospect were it Obama being elected for first time today but today Romney is not the man to be meeting the challenges america faces.

        What this election demonstrates quite clearly is that shifting demographics within our democracies are strongly influencing voting patterns.

        Like

    • 26
      XXX says:

      Would you put your money on a pundit, especially if they are pushing their favourite candidate.

      Like

  2. 2
    The Grouniad-BBC axis of evil says:

    We at the Grouniad-Biased Bullshitting Corpse wish to state that we wanted it, we predicted it, and now we have the greatest pleasure reporting it, – non-stop, with 5 minute updates, on-line summaries, tweets, faceups ‘n stuff – no wot oy meann?

    Like

  3. 3
    Broadsword calling Danny Boy says:

    Clive Dunn has died.

    Don’t panic.

    Like

  4. 4
    Anonymous says:

    Ask who will do more for you and vote for that person.

    Like

    • 7
      Broadsword calling Danny Boy says:

      Ask who will do more for your country and then get the questioner assassinated.

      Like

    • 28
      XXX says:

      Ask Dave and assume the opposite

      Like

    • 40
      Anonymous says:

      uk…about partnerships….hence co.alition govt.
      us…about families………..hence role model family man obama,
      china….about balanced relations between families….hence it ifinely balances the US
      India…making the best of each relationship. yum.

      if these are the major global evolutionary thrusts, then the entities which are most capable within these bounds will be what the public will go for.

      Like

  5. 5
    Guardian reader says:

    We need some changes here. Now if we can just get another few million illegal immigrants into the uk we can make conservatives and englishmen a minority here and move towards a social democratic paradise.

    Like

    • 16
      W.W. says:

      It’s heading that way sooner than you think.

      They don’t need to be the majority just a significant minority.

      Then the parties need to start pandering to their whims to get their vote, otherwise they can’t win without them.

      It was a poor choince for the American electorate, in fact it is usually a poor choice for the electorate in the entire western world.

      In Europe it will lead to the rise in extremist parties.

      W.W.

      Like

    • 23
      Earl Grey says:

      Most Englishmen now live abroad, in places where there is a decent climate.

      Its only the poor and the thickos who stayed behind.

      Like

    • 29
      XXX says:

      We may get more Irish immigration and don’t forget there always have been special arrangments with Eire

      Like

  6. 8
    digitaltoast says:

    “Election specialist James Delingpole …”. Nice one!

    I’d forgotten about him – I thought he’d gone back live on Fraggle Rock with the other Fraggles (dontcha reckon he looks a bit like one?). Perhaps taken a copy of The Very Hungry Caterpillar to study after looking for a change of career into human biology.

    Just enjoying reading the replies on JD’s twitter feed including:
    “Nice to see @JamesDelingpole knows politics as well as he knows climate change science”.

    Strange this is, the most vitriolic of Republitards blog-botherers with their predictions of “Romney by a landslide” just seem to have up and vanished like a fart in the wind.

    It’s almost like they’d finished a contract or something…

    Like

    • 13
      digitaltoast says:

      (Note to self – don’t mash out blog comments slagging others off if you’re going to make 4 typos because you were talking on the phone. Embarrassing).

      Like

  7. 10
    A techie reader says:

    For a geek take on it: http://xkcd.com/1131/

    Like

  8. 14
    Jimmy says:

    Wasn’t there someone else sneering at Nate Silver’s projections yesterday?

    Name escapes me for the moment…

    Like

  9. 17
    I'll be back says:

    It was the Hispanics what did it!
    Makes you wonder about the undoubted value of the ‘ imported immigrant voter’
    needing to milk the system and the uncontrolled postal voting in future UK elections again.
    Add on al jabeeba as uncontrolled propaganda mouthpiece and an uneven playing field via boundary irregularities and Dave has a ‘Godwin Austin’- K2 to climb.

    Like

    • 36
      Not Here says:

      The irony of the hispanic vote is that much of it was brought in by the same business people who support the republican party.

      Like

      • 37
        green ink says:

        the clever bit was to accept the reality that they were there and give them the chance to stay….thats why Obama reaped the vote dividend.

        Like

  10. 18
    Donald Trump says:

    See you all in Hawaii at the Birther Convention!

    Like

  11. 19
    Anonymous says:

    And Guido was salivating about a gain in Indiana- it wanted him but he can’t go back there.

    Like

  12. 20
    The savant says:

    As i. Have so often said on this august platform …

    Why did not willard mitty. Concede about four months ago after his disastrous euro. Jaunt. And his refusal to divulge his personal tax declarations for more than three years back??~~~~. Everyone else publishes ten years .

    Get elected. ? Romney could nt get arrested .

    McCain and Palin were political retards .

    Romney and ryan were just toxic. Trobadours .

    Why cannot the G O P Nominate a candidate who has a smattering of poltical sanity about him or her ??

    There s your homework project for the next three years. Mr. Boehner …

    Like

  13. 21
    Ehtch says:

    Muddy lives,

    Like

  14. 24
    Anonymous says:

    Personally I’m gutted that Obama won the election.

    Like

  15. 25
    Anonymous says:

    The United States is heading for bankruptcy. Obama’s victory simply means that they will get there faster.

    The United Kingdom is heading in the same direction, albeit more slowly.

    Like

    • 45
      Trahison des ClercsJust goes to prove says:

      Wheeeeee.

      Like

    • 46
      Ehtch says:

      The whole of Western Capitalism is heading for bankruptcy, it seems, and including Japan too. And Germany is going to drown with the Euro, even if its industry is solvent.

      Think I’ll move to Brazil, myself.

      Like

  16. 31
    Fenton says:

    Has Tim Stanley ever been right about anything?

    Like

  17. 33
    HenryV says:

    When I went to bed about 0200 Romney was in the lead by 30 EC votes. I wondered if I wasn’t as good at predicting these things as I thought. Let’s hope China doesn’t go to war over those islands. that Israel doesn’t do anything to extreme, and that the US southern border situation doesn’t get worse.

    Like

  18. 39
    Mitt Wrongy says:

    I always thought Obama would scrape by.

    Like

  19. 41
    fitzfitz says:

    Janet, Janet …

    Like

  20. 44
    Janet Daley says:

    ‘First the terror attacks, then the floods, now the pestilence. Gordon Brown seems to be undergoing the trials of Job.

    But in this case, it is not so much his faith that is being tested as the country’s in him. And, my goodness, isn’t he rising to the challenge?

    Once again he has appeared on our television screens within hours of terrible news, not just to assure us that he personally is taking charge of the foot and mouth crisis but to thank the authorities in affected communities for their cooperation and competence – to make it clear, in other words, that he is in command but also deeply respectful of people on the ground who must deal with the problems over which they have singular expertise.

    Wow! Will this guy ever put a foot wrong?’

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3641795/Tory-lessons-from-Brown-on-foot-and-mouth.html

    Like


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Boris on his fellow Islingtonista Emily Thornberry:

“It was an entirely run-of-the-mill English townscape, with some straightforward words to go with it. There was no obvious insult, no abuse, no overt sneering. She might have got away with it entirely, had some alert blogger not spotted it. He instantly detected the coded message that Emily Thornberry was sending to all her right-on, bien-pensant, Labour-luvvie friends in Islington, or wherever else it is that they follow her on Twitter.”



Left on Left says:

The lefties are attacking because the panellist is a millionaire and lives in a London home worth upwards of two million. Someone had best tell them he’s called Ed Miliband.


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