As Ed spends the afternoon in Corby – the front-line of Tory/Labour fighting in the next three months – Guido hears that Tom Watson is already playing the long game. The party campaign director has told Labour Political Advisers to stress that the party expects to lose the by-election in every conversation they have with the lobby. Speaking to Labour sources this afternoon it is clear that Labour’s routing in Bradford still haunts the party. The expectations game has begun and it’s all hands to the deck – full details in the morning.

Flashback: “Mudslingers: the 25 Dirtiest Political Campaigns” Watson’s Favourite Book