August 9th, 2012

Nomura “Brexit” Contingency Document in Full

Ambrose Evans Pritchard reports this lunchtime that Nomura have begun contingency planning for a possible British exit from the EU:

“The core point is that the eurozone may have to take drastic steps in integration (fiscal union, etc) to save the euro, making it nigh impossible for a fully sovereign state to remain part of the Project. In other words, it is not so much Britain leaving the EU as the EU leaving the treaty-based club of sovereign states it was supposed to be.”

The document was written by Alastair Newton – “an ex-British diplomat, former head to Tony Blair’s G7 team, and intelligence co-ordinator in the first Gulf War”. For some reason the Telegraph have not published the whole document so here it is:

With the Eurozone set to go tits up again in the autumn, that November by-election could prove very interesting…


  1. 1
    Well says:

    The sooner we out the EU the better.

  2. 2
    Lord Stansted says:

    Well, thank God someone is thinking about it. All we get from the Government is Lords reform and “gay” marriage.

  3. 3
  4. 4
    Shire Tory says:

    Great Joy!

  5. 5
    Shire Tory says:

    That’s about EU exit of course, not Lords reform & “gay” marriage!

  6. 6
    Nullbymouth says:

    Nomura, isn’t that a type of wallpaper?

  7. 7
    Wendy says:

    and windmills

  8. 8
    Moussa Koussa says:

    The usual wishful thinking from Guido

    UK exit from EU…isnt gonna happen.

  9. 9
    Lou Scannon says:

    I guess you’re hoping it all goes tits up before 1st July next year ?

  10. 10
    The Traitorous Tosser in No 10 says:

    Absolutely bang on there old bean!!

    I only bother with really cracking top-notch issues don’tchaknow!!! what??

    And of course, preserving my standing with the €USSR!

    What!!?? Wattage???

  11. 11
    Moussa Koussa says:

    Surely Bonkers Boris story is more interesting. Lost the plot today, demanding all school children do 2 hours PE every DAY.

  12. 12
    Steve Miliband says:

    Uncooked fish

  13. 13
    Gordon Brown says:

    But what about all the Euros I bought with the gold???

  14. 14
    Wendy says:

    Can you read? This is from Nomura – take it up with them.

  15. 15
    A Brussels Restaurant says:

    Maitre d': “I’d like to welcome the British delegation to our most humble restaurant, would you like to chose a table monsieur Cameron?”

    Dave: “Thank you, we’ll have that one near the door”

  16. 16
    Ed Ballsup says:

    We must boost our economy by pushing for Turkey to join the EU. Swarming into Britain, 20 to 30 million extra workers, and 20 o 30 million extra pensioners, will boost Britain, improve job opportunities for British workers, and rub the right’s nose in it.

  17. 17
    It's no to Europe. says:

    A very good debate on R4 yesterday evening, even though it was chaired by pro EU Evan Davis infront of a carefully selected audience of Europhiles at the LSE. There was simply no good reason why we should remain in and every reason why we should either come out or renegotiate our membership.

    To save the Euro they have little choice but to go into political and fiscal Union but Socialist France and hard working Germaqny are poles apart and it could get very bloody. But at least we will be in the outer core

  18. 18
    Enid o'Dyssey says:

    Also the make of trumpet used at Jericho.

  19. 19
    Ed Balls says:

    OK so long as none of them are winners.

  20. 20
    Nullbymouth says:

    Better still just get it delivered.

  21. 21
    Socialism is a severe mental illness says:

    That’s pretty close to standard in a real school.

    You know, a private one.

  22. 22
    Well it's a thought says:

    Wrong people thinking about an exit, until we get rid of the corrupt tripartite then we will still be screwed, it will need more than a bit of glue remover to unglue us from the EU and get our corrupt politicians to understand that they will lose out if we carry on the way we are going, which is a big circle.

  23. 23
    annette curton says:

    The only way we can exit the EU is by getting rid of all the treasonous sons of bitches that now inhabit the HOC at the next election.

  24. 24
    Hopeful voter says:

    “that November by-election could prove very interesting…” General Election surely.

  25. 25
    fifer says:

    That’s Bliar’s dream of being the next EU Dictator/President well and truly jinxed. Mwahahaha.

  26. 26
    retardEd Miliband (political genius) says:

    Yeth! Counthil houtheth and benefitsth for all of them!

    If that’th acceptable to the unionth.

  27. 27
    Well it's a thought says:

    Sadly it’s not over until it’s over and Camoron gives us at least a referendum on the EU, if we are going to go crash bang like the rest of Europe then let our braindead have a vote , while they’re not watching the soaps or the Olympics.

  28. 28
    UK EU Gravy Train Association says:

    Nonsense, this is merely the product of an unpaid summer holiday intern provided by Unite.

  29. 29
    Impartial Observer says:

    I have often wondered what had happened to Moussa Koussa.

  30. 30
    Euxit says:

    What happened to Grexit? Spaindex? Italaxe? I reckon that Germany might just say sod it and leave.

  31. 31

    It will be the EU they accede to, not the Euro. The date for the Euro is being kicked further and further into the long grass and is not now expected until 2017. For which read after 2020, if ever, the way things move here.

    Having said that, the Kuna and the Euro can be used interchangeably here, even including private individuals who all know the latest exchange rates. That applies to Istria and Dalmatia. Not sure the idea has currency(!) in inland parts, though.

    Curiously, the Kuna has been quite depressed against the Euro recently. The economy is rather a basket case due to immense amounts of bureaucracy left over from the communist days. Foreign debt is just over 100%. And we could use some of your water at the moment!

  32. 32
    Really? says:

    Renegotiate our membership?

    Given that it would be impossible to renegotiate anything meaningful or in our interests with 27 different countries all wanting some sort of quid pro quo arrangement. That inevitably leaves just out as the only viable option.

    Everything else is just chatter.

  33. 33
    It's no to Europe. says:

    Not according to George Eustace but I tend to agree with you. There really was not one good reason why we should remain in Europe, not one. It’s a political ideology, nothing more.

  34. 34
    Goodbye Camoron says:

    Or Mp’s charging £678 to learn Hebrew so they can communicate with their gay spouse over breakfast.

    What exactly does it take to get voters to put their X somewhere else?

    Guido – you need to wake up to the mood. Die hards are getting fed up with No 10

  35. 35
    Impartial Observer says:

    How so? Hopefully this country will escape the clutches of the EU. But he could still be ‘Dictator/President’ of this totalitarian set-up.

  36. 36
    Euxit says:

    What’s the chances that the hypocrites Labour spin this by offering us a referendum as soon as they know we are no longer going to be part of the eu.

  37. 37
    Gawd Help Us says:

    “In other words, it is not so much Britain leaving the EU as the EU leaving the treaty-based club of sovereign states it was supposed to be”.

    What and Van Rompuy and Barroso giving up their £50 odd million a day hand out just like that? Dream on.

  38. 38
    Goodbye Camoron says:

    There’s a bird dropping on your head Milliweed

  39. 39
    Moussa Koussa's pet gerbil says:

    They fantasize an awful lot on here, for instance Dave being replaced by Boris / Farage becoming PM / Louise Bagewashe & Nadine Doris in naked mud-wrestling.

  40. 40
    Moussa Koussa's pet gerbil says:

    Yeah – Boris is thinking gymslips.

  41. 41
    fifer says:

    He is probably a puppet master already along with Mandy!

  42. 42
    Moussa Koussa's pet gerbil says:

    We should attribute the spread of food banks to Cameron, Clegg & Osborne.

  43. 43
    Impartial Observer says:

    Yes, that’s more than likely.

  44. 44
    Goodbye Camoron says:

    Private? Hardly – most of the amenrties are shared with the locals.

    So those paying pay Council Tax for local education (private excluded), private education (general public included) and no rebate.


    Where does one opt out?

  45. 45
    Moussa Koussa's pet rattlesnake says:

    Went the same way as DUEMA. Just a dream…

  46. 46
    Moussa Koussa says:

    I’m alive and well thank you.

  47. 47

    OK Moussa.

    We are not going to get rid of you so we shall hang you on the wall after all. What sort of hook do you need? Don’t want you dropping on the floor, now…

  48. 48
    Abu Qatada says:

    I’m still here too….

  49. 49
    fifer says:

    :-C Grexit has not really happened?

  50. 50
    Anonymous says:

    Ah Israel, the most racist state in the world.

  51. 51
    mc cavity mcmental says:

    well get back in before we shut the cat flap for the night

  52. 52

    Have probably the only electronically operated cat flap in Istria here!

    No more broom and dust!

  53. 53
    Moussa Koussa says:

    Steady with the strong stuff, SC.

  54. 54
    The Golem says:

    Exactly, which is unlikely to happen, sadly. The most we can look forward to is a few
    new faces in the Commons, who will struggle to “catch the Speaker’s eye”.

  55. 55
    Moussa Koussa says:

    They accept them in Marks & Spencer

  56. 56
    Impartial Observer says:

    Very glad to hear it. I thought ‘you’ were (unintentionally) hilarious and so very camp.

  57. 57
    Impartial Observer says:

    That’s OK Abu. You need to stay close to your employers and your ‘work’

  58. 58
    bergen says:

    Both the coalition and the EU operate on the cock-up theory of events and so it’s pointless trying to guess the future.

  59. 59
    de Broglie says:

    I thought you were out and in at the same time due to Wave-Particle Duality?

  60. 60
    Slo Mo Train Crash aka EU says:

    I just don’t understand. I’m deliberately taking as long as I can to disintegrate and be the catalyst for insurrection and revolution in several European states, yet Boy Dave and chums still close their eyes and think I’m not happening. Do the British political class and their parasites in the media and NGOs have a death wish?

  61. 61

    Sorry! Just notice you as you replied to Lou Scannon.

    Whereas you are quite correct, effects can have multiple causes…

  62. 62

    DUEMA complete success. Ed is still leader.

  63. 63
    Oy Vey says:

    All banks will be working on contingency documents for all manner of potential scenarios

    Means nothing

  64. 64
    Taxfodder says:

    I did not bother to read it…no need really.

    I’m guessing profit makers (excluding the politically inept and those on a nice little earner) have actually worked out the german body electorate withdrew their support from the Euro some considerable time ago….while the average german was happy to accept a crooked and/or inept political class while the cash rolled in it will be unlikely to tolerate them now their best customers want their money back.

    Goes without saying Dave and Chums are hoping to spring their cash before it all goes tits up….you can bet your boots if they miss the boat UK Jobs will be the last thing on their minds….nothing new there!

  65. 65
    Moussa Koussa's pet rattlesnake says:

    …and he may well win the next election for Labour.

  66. 66
    A Payne in the Beeboids says:

    Coming to your channel very soon:


    ‘Weird sex : Lord knows I married a gay windmill.’

  67. 67
    It's cricket, Jim, but not as we know it says:

    Howzat ?

  68. 68
    mc cavity mcmental says:

    did you know the italian crooner sergio endrigo came from istria

    thought not

    more useless titbits to adbd to the total sum of futile human knowledge tomorrow

  69. 69
    mc cavity mcmental says:

    lord stansted

    are you a human third runway ??

    if so please decamp to heathrow where your skills are sorely needed

  70. 70
    The speaker's eye says:

    I was only popping out for a minute.

  71. 71
    abu dhabi says:

    i m still here too

    i think i still play midfield for the arsenal unless wenger s fired me .

  72. 72
    the savant says:

    abu hamza s hook will do fine

  73. 73
    Eurohasser says:

    Problem is, the only main opposition party that could win against Merkel is the SPD, and they’re even keener than the CDU to throw the German taxpayer’s money out of the window and socialise the whole eurozone. So it’ll be frying pan, fire until the Freie Waehler party gets going properly.

  74. 74
    the savant says:


    have they just nationalised greggs ???

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Rising Stars
Find out more about PLMR AD-MS

Alan Milburn says Labour’s scaremongering campaign for an unreformed NHS will not win election…

“It would be a fatal mistake, in my view, for Labour to go into this election looking as though it is the party that would better resource the National Health Service but not necessarily put its foot to the floor when it comes to reforming. Look, reforms are not easy, but the Labour Party is not a conservative party. It should be about moving things forward not preserving them in aspic. You have got a pale imitation actually of the 1992 general election campaign, and maybe it will have the same outcome. I don’t know.”

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