May 24th, 2012

Grexit Trading

For a couple of years Guido used to report his financial market trading in a box in the blog’s right hand column. It was popular with a few readers, nowadays Guido trades occasionally and just tweets about it. Readers still ask how the market trading is going, the above chart shows how it has been going this year so far, each data point is a closed trade. For the first couple of months Guido was long and wrong on gold, which hurts when you are over-leveraged. Since March Guido has been trying to sell a break in the Euro, as the chart shows it wasn’t really going anywhere until a couple of weeks ago when it dipped below 1.30 to the US dollar before hitting new lows for the year yesterday. Making back all losses for the year and some…

The CityAm Active Trader conference saw 650 traders gathered in the City. Guido spoke to them about the pros and cons of trading on the back of your political analysis. If you are interested in that kind of thing (and why the tooth fairy made 7 year-old Miss Fawkes cry) the speaking notes are here. Just don’t tell Mrs Fawkes…


  1. 1
    Viva la EU says:

    All Greek to me!

  2. 2
    Two Pies Prescott says:

    Hey lad! Don’t miss me on Question Time tonight. Actually, it’s very hard to miss me any time!

  3. 3
    Anonymous says:

    Greece will not leave the Euro unless the whole thing crashes down.

    The nightmare scenario for the EU is if Greece leaves and their economy thrives. The gravy train would come to an abrupt halt and the EU wonks are not likely to let that happen.

  4. 4
    Nom Dom Nom says:

    Beware of Greeks bearing Gilts

  5. 5
    My Dad came from Tonypandy says:

    So we are now being told that today’s bad economic figures were expected all along.

    Oh so that is supposed to make everything alright is it?

    Pull the other one.

  6. 6
    Quisling says:

    Well done.

    Now spend some money on your stupid mod machine please.

  7. 7
    Lemmy says:

    You know I’m born to lose and gambling’s for fools but that’s the way I like it baby. I don’t want to live forever………

  8. 8
    S says:

    “GrExit” is a bit naff. I much prefer the “GrOut” mooted on HIGNFY.

  9. 9
    Fast Eddie Clarke says:

    I know from my dealing days that there are roughly 28 grammes to an ounce.

  10. 10
    Ed Balls to Ed Miliband says:

    Go get your fucking shinebox.

  11. 11
    Muzee morons says:

    Muzee athletes competing at the Olympics are in a quandary because the games coincide with Ramalamadingdong. Fasting isn’t very helpful when you need energy to compete! Stupid fucking ragheads. I wouldn’t be surprised if some lefty socialist somewhere is writing at this very moment to the Olympics demanding they move the games back a whole month to accommodate the muzbots and if they don’t they’re nasty islamaphobic baby eating Tories.

  12. 12
    tommy5d says:

    The main key to trading is to remember just because you know the outcome doesn’t mean you know the route to it and when you’re 50x leveraged you can easily be stopped out just before what you predicted becomes reality.

  13. 13
    Anonymous says:

    And Guido lectured Gordon Brown on when to trade gold…

  14. 14
    I've Met the Man in the Street, and He's a Right Cunt says:

    You’re bang on read this rare insight on whay it could be good for the Greeks to leave the euro!

  15. 15
    sockpuppet #4 says:

    I thought the tooth fairy might have got pissed and forgot.

    Not speeking from experience there, honest.

  16. 16
    I've Met the Man in the Street, and He's a Right Cunt says:

    To be fare Gordon was pissing our money away, if Guido pisses his own away that’s up to him

  17. 17
    garden shed behavioural scientist says:

    Little Miss Fawkes obviously has a fine future ahead of her. Playing the ‘waterworks’ card, at the age of seven, in front of the man in her life shows what we males are up against.

  18. 18
    Nom Dom Nom says:

    Interesting. Back to the bankers again!!

  19. 19
    Off message says:

    On last night’s Newsnight, they actually said the controversial practice of allowing civil servants to get paid as contractors and avoid full tax started years ago under Labour, not the Tories. Have the editors and producers been sent to re-education camp yet?

  20. 20
    Nom Dom Nom says:

    Lets please the ones you mention and the majority of the UK all at the same time by cancelling the utter waste of money

  21. 21
    The London Whale says:

    Yeah right

  22. 22
    Spazmo says:

    Gordon would call it negative investment!

  23. 23
    It was popular with a few readers says:

    I always found that box rather uninformative, pretentious and, as with the thumbs up/down fiasco, was pleased to see it go.
    Just a personal opinion, you understand.

  24. 24
    Steve Miliband says:

    Under the Coalition it is unchecked tax avoidance in times of austerity. under Labour it is legitimate maximisation of assets due to the nature and status of employment

  25. 25
    Paxman says:

    Yes I actually made the mistake of praising the right once. As I learnt during my 7 years at the rehabilitation centre, the right is bad.

    How I laugh and laugh now at the 4am BBC t’ai chi sessions when I think about it

  26. 26
    Timmy Tin Foil says:

    Six hundred fifty active traders– presumably not the same 650 as another body we know and love so well. Or are they? We should be told!

  27. 27
    My Other Van's A Comma says:

    Your use of punctuation is still rather hit and miss.

  28. 28
    Nom Dom Nom says:

    The 650 you are thinking about are all members of this

  29. 29
    Steve Miliband says:

    levenson enquiry; who gives a shit?

  30. 30
    annette curton says:

    “and why the tooth fairy made 7 year-old Miss Fawkes cry”, your are supposed to put a sixpence under the pillow, tight git!.

  31. 31
    Gordon Brown says:

    I bet it all on black

  32. 32
    garden shed behavioural scientist says:


  33. 33
    Call me Dave says:

    Plan for the rapture, expect the worst

    Pip pip

  34. 34
    Gordon Brown says:

    All 10 million of them

  35. 35
    Diane FlabBot says:

    Is it true that you watch The Wright/Wrong Stuff whilst pumping at the gym, Jeremy?

  36. 36
    Fuck Nose says:

    Who cares who gives a shit? Media-types at a guess.

  37. 37
    Geoff, England (not Britain or 'United' KIngdom) says:

    Give me a loaded pistol, and I won’t miss you. I guarantee it, you fat slob racist Liebore filth.

  38. 38
    Goodfella says:

    Busting Balls, busting Balls.

  39. 39
    Fuck Nose says:

    Where is everyone?

  40. 40
    Superzuffle says:

    Dan right i nearly ran over you in Hull city center, tried to swerve round you but ran out of petrol!

  41. 41

    You’re new here, aren’t you? When it goes quiet, it means he’s cooking up a new post. There used to be a guy on here that would point us to the latest scoop but I think he got banned.

  42. 42
    K VAZ says:

    Good, stay confused.

    By the way, over half a million 1mm1gr4nts came to britain last year. And this year. And will again next year.

    Within your lifetime the indigenous people will become a minority and so disorientated as we start counting Indian babies born here as being indigenous british. We shall destroy your country.

  43. 43
    Fiona - nice ass milf BBC presenter says:

    Why should I have to pay full taxes like the kind of scum who vote Tory?

  44. 44
    muttering idiot says:

    So what?

  45. 45
    prawn koresh and plain pilau please says:

    At least the national average IQ should improve over time.

  46. 46
    Joe Pesci says:

    I’m funny how? I amuse you? I’m here to fucking amuse you?

  47. 47
    Daytime crapola says:

    Diane, is it true you watch The Jeremy Kyle Show as a way of staying in touch with the concerns of your constituents?

  48. 48
    Aunt Mat says:

    I am so glad that you have recovered your money by betting that the euro would lose value.

    Do you think that it may now be time to stop speculating whilst we are going deeper into recession.

    It could be said that you are making things worse, and you surely would not risk being criticised for hypocracy.

  49. 49
    Gordon 'Sold All The Gold For Euro's' Brown says:

    Is the tooth fairy a publicly traded entity? Sounds like a great investment.

  50. 50
    Ed Balls says:

    Ever since I was a kid, I wanted to be a gangster, I mean Labour MP. Same thing, really.

  51. 51
  52. 52
    British Buggery Club says:

    I see that the bbc is trying to glorify islam again It is also part of their campaign to have the the ‘golden age’ of Islamic science
    brought to the fore and given its ‘due place’ in our history….because of course, the BBC, and the Guardian, tells us, the West was built on the Islamic science….without Islam we’d be living in mud huts eating raw cows….and ultimately to have us ‘see’ Muslims and Islam as a benefit to society rather than a backward, Medieval, oppressive, homophobic, mysogynistic, divisive and intent on religious apartheid religion that brings violence and conflict to our society.

    Good luck on that.

  53. 53
    AC1 says:

    Gangsters keep their promises unlike party manifestos.

  54. 54
    Bread and libore cir cusses says:

    I’ll second that, but isn’t everyone waiting for the parolyimpics?

    I know the telly keeps going on about it, so I guess everybodyu up and down the country is talking about it and can’t wait to see who wins what.

  55. 55
    AC1 says:

    It’s only costing about 2 Billion a day!

  56. 56
    John Prescott says:

    Prawn? Fook that, lad! Make mine a chicken vindaloo, a lamb madras, pilau rice, bombay aloo, sag aloo, keema nan, onion salad, popadums, onion bhaji, mango pickle, and a bottle of coke. That’s a reet good meal, lad! Just wait an hour or two after I’ve used the lav, mind.

  57. 57
    AC1 says:

    The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent….

    All thanks to the State’s Central Bankers!

  58. 58
    sunstroked says:

    they’re definitely GrAssholed

  59. 59
    BBC News says:

    “Mumbai potatoes” is the new term. Don’t use it again or we’ll whip up a twitter campaign to have you imprisoned for 56 days and sent to diversity re-education.

  60. 60
    British Buggery Club says:

    Fatso watson is going to trade in lard and day trips to brighton

  61. 61
    BBC News says:

    We remember how when Ed Balls, Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown were running the economy we used to have to attack the Tories for talking down the economy.

    Funny how it’s no longer wrong to say bad things about the economy.

    Now, be good and pay your tv tax.

  62. 62
    AC1 says:

    > ‘golden age’ of Islamic science

    Happened due to dhimmi non-iSlamers.

  63. 63
    British Buggery Club says:

    Yvette cooper balls is going to trade in telegraph journos

  64. 64
    Elsie Beattie (83 and a quarter) says:

    I do like a bit of Greek, dear. I think it’s all the olive oil that gets me going.

  65. 65
    Gordon Brown says:

    Yes I sold the gold but I invested it in Euros.

  66. 66

    Funny how the lavender scented swooners at the Beeb don’t pronounce Paris as “PAREE” – I guess it’s only pc when the skin colour differs.

  67. 67

    I got a Grammy in 1999 – and in 2000 I still had half a Grammy left.

    (Donated from the Rock ‘n Roll Hall of retired acceptance speech Jokes)

  68. 68
    I've Met the Man in the Street, and He's a Right Cunt says:

    Couldn’t put it better! Islam is Medieval it has yet to undergo the 300 years of rational secular moderation that Christianity has gone through to get it to the point where we can just choose to ignore it.

  69. 69
    I can't be arsed to think up a new pseudonym says:

    I cannot be arsed to watch the real Olympics, so why would I be interested in the limpy ones?

  70. 70

    I have gone a remarkably similar route to you although no Facebook and no futures. I am still long on USD and although I live partly in Euroland, have only held what I need to pay the bills. I also found gold to be disappointing this year.

    Land is always good. Property rental in UK has been good as long as the tenants have paid. I have actually doubled my capital since emigrating as I used some proceeds from my expensive south coast property to buy bottom-end property in the far north.

    Another line which has excelled is fine art. Pieces that I bought can now sell at more than twice what I paid but you have to know your market and the name is everything. It is even now possible to pick up pre-Raphaelite original works by the main names at prices that will look a snip in a few years. Burne-Jones works will only go north for some decades IMHO as Lloyd Weber has almost single-handedly cornered the market that is not already in public ownership.

  71. 71
    I can't be arsed to think up a new pseudonym says:

    All religion is shit.

  72. 72
    eezy peezy says:

    A simple change in the law is needed to state that with immediate effect full British citizenship is available only to those whose parents (both of them) were UK born. Others will be granted permanent(?) residence but will not be able to claim citizenship (or be allowed to vote?). They can travel on the halfway [British Overseas something or other] passports similar to those given to the ex-colonials. A straightforward Statutory Instrument (so beloved of the last Administration to sneak legislation through without full parliamentary scrutiny) would probably suffice.

  73. 73

    I have to say that they are learning a fairly pointed lesson in air born and ground troop moderation – and that’s just conventional stuff.

    If it gets too out of hand, we’ll have all the window glass we can use for centuries.

  74. 74
    Fairy Nuff says:

    annette, dear, sixpences went out in about 1972. The going rate these days is 50p minimum, which one hell of an increase in percentage terms. Inflation gets everywhere…

  75. 75
    Fairy Nuff says:

    I suspect the ignorant gits at the beeb are confusing the religion with the inhabitants of those fair middle eastern lands.

    The religion started in about 630AD or thereabouts, but virtually all the science, learning and knowledge attributed to those folk was in place well before that. Since the early 7th century not much of any use has been invented/discovered/found by them.

  76. 76
    Loyalist says:

    Do we need Irish citizens in our country who make money speculating on currency and writing for pornographers? Just askin’, Guido.

  77. 77
    PC translator says:

    Paedodums, sag kok, rahpist rice, is lamaloo, dirtibastid bhaji, tweentififeyeersinjail pickle.

  78. 78
    Anon. says:

    With the token left-wing ‘comedian’ in the form of G Rhys-Jones.

  79. 79
    Mr Gove AKA Pob says:

    IIRC Irish Banks are without question a copper bottomed safe haven

  80. 80
    Biased Broadcasting Corporation says:

    The Socialist presenter and economics correspondent on Radio 5 Labour were practically wetting themselves with glee this morning when they announced that the figures were ‘far worse than originally anticipated.’

    They absolutely love it when they can tell the country how badly things are going. Just as long as they can stick the knife into the Tories.

    Such patriots, arn’t they, those overpaid, tax-dodging dossers at the BBC.

  81. 81
    Dick the Prick says:

    And Geeks bearing Gifs. Cheers Guido me ol’ fruit. Gotta feel sorry for Will Self for a bit, that’s proper unfortunate.

  82. 82
    Abdel from Tooting says:

    I have just had a thought.

    How about the Germans leaving the Euro and returning to the Mark.

    If this were to happen Mr Hollande could issue all the euro bonds he wanted.

  83. 83
    Why was he never prosecuted ? says:

    You could always resort the the Piers Morgan method of share dealing.

  84. 84
    Zeus says:

    Greeks should default

  85. 85
    Tabloid readers are stupid says:

    Equally, all brits living abroad will be expelled unless both parents were born in the host country. You do know that 10% of brits are ex-pats?

  86. 86
    Tabloid readers are stupid says:

    So, Geedo, did you do anything useful to make that money or did you just leech it without creating anything?

  87. 87
    Dictionary Corner says:

    Since it’s OK to use terms like “Raghead” here, surely it’s OK to use terms like “Zionazi” also, yes?

  88. 88
    Hasbara Spotter says:

    Particularly when you get the chosen holy landers hatemongering against the other lot while pretending to be Johnny Brit on blogs and forums.

  89. 89
    Hack says:

    Media types don’t give a shit either, they just write for each other.

  90. 90
    Jane Birkin from Paris says:

    With joined up thinking like this then Guido is definitely one cool dude who wont be joining the pack in Carey Street.

  91. 91

    Unfortunately for Irish taxpayers.

  92. 92
    It is all greek says:

    The greek elite are busy playing their blackmail ‘domino effect’ card in the hope that the austerity measures imposed on them will be weakened.
    Hollande wants a collective borrowing structure in place in the eurozone to allow the poorer economies to borrow at a cheaper rate. Merkel is having none of that.
    So who knows? The market speculators are spooked and will remain so until a solution to the greek economic crisis is found!

  93. 93
    Marketing pawn. Where is my profit gone? says:

    Very interesting. It would be good to see a profit instead of a loss.

  94. 94
    Philthy Animal Taylor says:

    …and don’t forget the joker!

  95. 95
    davidb says:

    I remember that, cos I got flamed by Guido a while back for suggesting that it was too late for lay people to invest in gold. Gold was overpriced and risky to invest in. When I saw it was at $1200/oz last week I thought about Guido . My thoughts were oh I see I was right, then I thought Guido is a cock.

  96. 96

    Gold $1573, price still up from 12 months ago.

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