The Cameroons believe down to their DNA that a governing majority is to be found at the centre of politics. Last night where UKIP stood they polled 14% on average, the BBC calculating that for every 10% UKIP polls, the Tories lose 5% of their support. UKIP is clearly gaining traction as more than just a Euro-election voting option. The Cameroons kid themselves that they can be more credibly centrist and win more votes from the centre party without losing their right-of-centre base.
Last night Baroness Warsi smeared UKIP by associating them with the BNP. Their own activists don’t believe it, it is noticeable just how many activists the Conservative youth and students wings are haemorrhaging to UKIP. This decade long splintering of the right-of-centre vote is madness, a huge opportunity for sanity is opening up ahead of the next election, one which it seems even Lord Mandelson is willing to embrace. He has briefed The Sun this morning:
“I believe a referendum on this will be necessary because parties can’t reconcile their own differences and come to a final conclusion. A referendum would be a healthy means of re-establishing a consensus among Britons about Britain’s place in the world and role Europe should play in that.”
An In/Out referendum is a chance to settle the Europe question for generations and re-unite the right-of-centre majority in Britain. UKIP and the Tories would be campaigning on the same platform. Farage and most of UKIP would in those circumstances come back into the fold, the Conservatives would then have their best shot at winning a majority in decades. Before the 2015 general election David Cameron needs once more to make a “big, open, comprehensive offer” and secure his place in history by winning an In/Out referendum. Nigel Farage doesn’t want to be in Brussels a day longer than he has to be, it is time to bring him home…