April 23rd, 2012

Left-Wing Hollande Would Trigger €urogeddon

Guido shorted €uros last night as soon as the Kiwis got to their desks and the currency markets opened. French Socialist Francois Hollande looks set to become President of France and the Dutch government has fallen apart. International investors are not going to look at that kindly, Guido also has a sense that the election of a left-wing president in France who actually implements a left-wing agenda would frighten the bond markets. Hollande will probably tack to the centre once in office, he is after all only a politician making election promises. If however he sticks to the left-wing agenda that his rhetoric promises, the big macro-hedge funds will take the view that French bonds can join the PIIGS (Portugese, Irish, Italian and Spanish bonds) on the sell list. In government Hollande has to choose between his rhetoric and the reality of the bond markets.

The ECB has already dangerously leveraged up support for the PIIGs via Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO). Leveraging up the ECB’s capital base has allowed it to put nearly €1 trillion of PIIG sovereign debt on its books, at a massive leverage ratio of nearly 40 to 1. If the ECB were a marked-to-market hedge fund instead of a Central Bank we would say it was investing recklessly, a mere 2.5% market move against it would wipe out all of its capital. The market doesn’t move it against it because it massively intervenes to support its own position.

If however the German Bundesbank decides that the ECB can’t go on literally doubling the chips on the table – up 106% since last year – the €uro as is could be too big to save. That is why all Osborne’s Treasury’s protestations about the IMF always getting its money back count for little. The US and China want to see Germany bet everything on the €uro before they join the rescue party. German politicians – including those of the left-of-centre SPD – expect Hollande to govern from the centre whatever he says on the hustings. British left-wingers hoping for a left-wing surge on the continent sparked by Hollande should be careful what they wish for, it would trigger the end of the €uro. If Hollande abandoned Sarkozy’s deficit reduction programme Germany would probably seek alternative arrangements – a hard-€uro Fiscal Union made up of Northern Europeans who run their affairs like the Germans and a looser soft-€uro of Southern Europeans who overspend. The dream of a united continent of Europe with one currency would be over…


137 Comments

  1. 1
    Bulldog says:

    Hollande looks weak and blundering. He could be an excellent President. For Britain.

    Like

    • 6
      Milibandwagon says:

      Like

      • 16

        A Socialist supporting Nationalism? Maybe RedEd’s getting ideas beyond his station!

        Like

        • 41
          Flatus Veteranus says:

          A National Socialist. Mmm, thinks. I’ve heard of that before.

          Like

        • 48
          Rage Against the Political Elite. says:

          If we can believe the French PRESS? This Mug has promised higher wages for the Public Sector Cancer that is destroying Capitalism.

          And the W-nker Osboom has just promised another £10 billion to the IMF to Prop the European Ponzi scheme up as well as borrowing 450 million a day to Prop ours.

          Like

          • Mr Rage is Right says:

            And with Ken now neck & neck in the London Mayor opinion polls it’s time Mr Rage for us all to hunker down…it’s going to be a bumpy ride….

            Like

          • Rage Against the Political Elite. says:

            Thanks for that. Just a thought. If I ask A BANKRUPT for a loan. They would say YES as well wouldn’t they.

            Like

          • Anonymous says:

            we are the laughing stock of the world.
            northern Europe ruled the world once, before we imploded.
            France, Germany and the UK are cousins and like all families, everyone is very competitive.
            every nation competing to be the best, learning from each other all the way to the top.
            this as all gone now because of the nicety’s forced on to us all by the eurocrats, who nobody voted for,with no mandate.
            we need leaders and doers who visualise the future.

            now we are bobbing along in a shit pit for any nation to come along and cherry pick. this is a race to the bottom in the name of what? fear of war? fear of poverty?

            well you eurocrats have certainly brought this fear very nearer now than it as ever been.

            Like

        • 51
          I Remember You Hoo says:

          Nothing wrong with Nationalism, it’s the socialist bit that’s the problem.

          Like

          • Monsieur Gordon Le Brun says:

            Sacre Bleu, mon dieu

            It looks as if our Frenchy Friends have gone into ooooh la la land

            Like

      • 24
        Baron Hogwash says:

        Is there anything in the world that Wally does not have an opinion or shouty mouth Hilly.

        Like

      • 66
        Sophie says:

        After what Labour – those utter bastards, have done to the English & England?

        Because we voted for Lady Thatcher Labour punished us by importing a new proletariat whilst turning the English working class into welfare junkies.

        Labour should be disbanded for their crimes against the English – & their leaders put in prison for the rest of their miserable lives.

        Like

        • 72
          Rab C Nesbitt (dec) says:

          I’d prefer taken outside and shot in front of their families. Or the local tramp in Gordooms case.

          Like

        • 88
          rocknrolla says:

          All true.

          I think as the years roll by and the English become a minority in England you will see the Guardian readers, BBC viewers, Labour supporters start to suddenly rediscover nationalism but it will be based on a “new man” who isn’t English. Such a pity – they’ve destroyed a once great nation.

          Like

      • 77
        Anonymous says:

        Minimarx is taking the pith.

        Like

      • 87
        Anonymous says:

        just another self important lying politician wanting your vote to become pm.

        Then he will fuck you hard after right? and serves you right!

        so don’t vote for any of the 3 main parties, if you do, don’t for God’s sake, fucking moan after, right!

        Like

      • 104
        Phil says:

        W

        Like

    • 8
      Grammar School Boy says:

      Agreed.

      What an excallent thought for St George’s day!!

      Like

    • 23
      AC1 says:

      I think you mean Nightmare not dream…

      Like

      • 35
        nickleaton says:

        I agree its a nightmare, in the short term.

        Long term is another issue. There needs to be a clear out of the shit in government. Politicians being the first to be culled. However, the real problem is debt, and the deficit is just a small symptom of that.

        Like

    • 64
      AC1 says:

      I was born in one country, raised in another.

      My father was born in another country.

      I was not his only child.

      He fathered several children with numerous women.

      I became very close to my mother, as my father showed no interest in me.

      My mother died at an early age from cancer.

      Although my father deserted me and my mother raised me, I later wrote a book idolizing my father not my mother.

      Later in life, questions arose over my real name.

      My birth records were sketchy.

      No one was able to produce a legitimate, reliable birth certificate.

      I grew up practicing one faith but converted to Christianity, as it was widely accepted in my new country, but I practiced non-traditional beliefs and didn’t follow Christianity, except in the public eye under scrutiny.

      I worked and lived among lower-class people as a young adult, disguising myself as someone who really cared about them.

      That was before I decided it was time to get serious about my life and embarked on a new career.

      I wrote a book about my struggles growing up.

      It was clear to those who read my memoirs, that I had difficulties accepting that my father abandoned me as a child.

      I became active in local politics in my 30’s then, with help behind the scenes, I literally burst onto the scene as a candidate for national office in my 40s.

      They said I had a golden tongue and could talk anyone into anything.

      I had a virtually non-existent resume, little work history, and no experience in leading a single organization.

      Yet I was a powerful speaker and citizens were drawn to me, as though I were a magnet and they were small roofing tacks.

      I drew incredibly large crowds during my public appearances.

      This bolstered my ego.

      At first, my political campaign focused on my country’s foreign policy…

      I was very critical of my country in the last war, and seized every opportunity to bash my country.

      But what launched my rise to national prominence were my views on the country’s economy.

      I pretended to have a really good plan on how we could do better, and every poor person would be fed and housed for free.

      I knew which group was responsible for getting us into this mess.

      It was the free market, banks and corporations.

      I decided to start making citizens hate them and, if they became envious of others who did well, the plan was clinched tight.

      I called mine “A People’s Campaign”.

      That sounded good to all people.

      I was the surprise candidate because I emerged from outside the traditional path of politics and was able to gain widespread popular support.

      I knew that, if I merely offered the people ‘hope’, together we could change our country and the world.

      So, I started to make my speeches sound like they were on behalf of the downtrodden, poor, ignorant to include “persecuted minorities”.

      My true views were not widely known and I kept them unknown, until after I became my nation’s leader.

      I had to carefully guard reality, as anybody could have easily found out what I really believed, if they had simply read my writings and examined those people I associated with. I’m glad they didn’t.

      Then I became the most powerful man in the world.

      And then the world learned the truth.

      No, I was not born in Kenya or Hawaii. I was born in Austria.

      Who am I?

      Like

    • 70
    • 132
      The great unwashed says:

      Hollandais looks about as inspiring as Millipede.

      Like

  2. 2
    Roth says:

    Kiwis*

    Like

  3. 3
    tommy5d says:

    A bit silly to short Euros last night when the market had priced in Hollande’s victory some weeks ago.

    Like

  4. 4
    Ed Miliband says:

    I’m just like Michael Jackson. I’m bad, I’m dangerous, and pretty soon I’ll be history.

    Like

  5. 5
    Ah! Monika says:

    I’m OK I’ve only got one Euro in a drawer somewhere.

    Like

  6. 7
    Leftie vs former leftie says:

    Like

  7. 11
    Someone even fatter than Prescott says:

    Like

    • 19
      There is no need to add to the humour of the moment, it just distracts. says:

      Why do people fall into the trap of embellishing something that is instantly funny? Guido does the same with his videos by adding soundtracks and repeats.

      Like

  8. 12
    The Hooded Claw says:

    Apparently he’s never been in government before. This could be most entertaining.

    Like

  9. 13
    Steve Miliband says:

    why doesn’t every other EU country revert to their own currency and Germany can keep the euro

    Like

  10. 14
    Bob Crow says:

    Soshelljizm! Up da workarz!

    Like

  11. 15
    Cameron says:

    Centre for Policy Studies and Andrew Tyrie with Roger Liddle currently discussing an FTT http://www.podium3.com/system/index.php?option=com_podium&task=login&project=210

    Like

  12. 17
    Ah! Monika says:

    If you’ve got a dickey heart don’t read the Seen Elsewhere ” Cost of quangos….
    above.

    Like

  13. 21
    The ghost of Frank Carson says:

    Talentless non-celeb irritant Peàches Geldof has named her sprog Astala.

    Is his middle name Vista?

    Like

  14. 22
    MandyPickleSniffer says:

    You shorted Euros…really? Or is it just a fictitious ‘paper trade’ and you’re just trying to dramatise your point that the French election result will be bad for the currency?

    And, if you really are putting your money where your mouth is, At what level? Transparency kinda means you need to tell us where your entry & exit points are.

    And, thru what vehicle…spread betting, going long some kind of currency ETF, or via options?

    And against which other currency…dollar vs Euro, sterling vs Euro, or Euro-Yen?
    And what time frame are you allowing yourself….is it a short-term trade where it has to succeed soon or do you have the luxury of allowing the whole story to play itself out over a 1-year time span?

    Is Guido going all Zero-Hedge on us now?

    Like

    • 29
      AC1 says:

      Maybe he’s got a short euro Euros, long farmland + Baked Beans ETF.

      Like

      • 37
        MandyPickleSniffer says:

        I’m long tinned food, tin openers, back copies of Viz, carlsberg special brew, and nurofen. I’m short Galloway, Livingstone, Harman, Millibland, and Jacqui Smith. And I’ve got a drawer full of the old 10 french franc notes, with the topless chick waving the flag on the back. That’s me sorted.

        Like

      • 50
        Carl Marks says:

        I’m very short of Euros for my holidays.

        Like

    • 40
      Steve Miliband says:

      Guess who got ‘currency trading for dummies’

      Like

    • 49

      Shorted JUN EUR/USD FUTURE @ 1.31980. It is a short-term trade because I don’t expect Hollande to govern from the left. Am trading the fear of him doing so.

      Last trade 1.31422

      Used to run a column on the right hand side showing my realtime portfolio.

      Like

      • 58
        sockpuppet #4 says:

        I really don’t know what you mean by “govern from the left” – because ones’ left-right-ometer needs seriously recalibrating when going from the UK to France.

        It is the case that on some issues, Brown was to the Right of Sarkozy. (notably government cash support of industry).

        Like

      • 85
        MandyPickleSniffer says:

        Thanks! And good luck!

        Of course, it seems odd to bet on the US when they’re such a bunch of basket cases and their finances are even worse than the Greeks, but still, in the battle of the ugly sisters the Euro should be the loser for now, and the fear factor and market’s knee jerk reaction should be worth at least a few pips.

        If it breaks below 1.30, there’ll mass panic & stop losses being triggered, total chaos & mayhem, cats and dogs living together….

        Like

  15. 26
    Nothern Chap says:

    Impressive. LTCM was only operating at a leverage ratio of 30:1.

    Like

  16. 27
    Osborne is a CUNT says:

    So does this mean that osborne has just pissed ten billion squid up against the wall? Actually it is more than ten billion as Osborne had to borrow the money on interest in the first place.

    Like

    • 31
      George Osborne says:

      We’re all in this together! Louise!

      Like

      • 96
        Sick of the greed and lies(still) says:

        David Cameron was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning. If I hear “it’s the right thing to do” by another Politician, I will not be responsible for my actions. I thought that phrase was consigned to the archives with the last governent. If anything, it’s worse than ever!
        As for giving a straight answer to the question, “did the Home Office ask the European court about the date of expiry?” I could feel him squirming in his seat trying to figure out an answer to the question without incriminating himself.
        Liars, the lot of them!

        Like

    • 32
      AC1 says:

      Don’t worry, we can borrow money to pay the interest. We’ll borrow the money from the people we bailed out with taxpayers money.

      Like

  17. 30
    Mark says:

    I want my Deutsch back.

    Like

  18. 34
    Filthy Rich Capitalist says:

    A well researched piece Guido. The fool Hollande, if he is elected, has put himself at the mercy of the Bond Market vigilantes, and French interest rates will soar. Another example of politicians not really knowing what is going on in the world. The markets are already anticipating his election and political turmoil in the Netherlands, and are already more than 1% down. I am leveraged short the FTSE 100 with the ETF SUK2.

    Like

    • 76
      Jane Birkin from Paris says:

      Sounds good to me although keep in place your stops in case the little fella turns it around.

      Try the Cac too. A bit more volatility to key into in all this.

      Like

  19. 36
    Rosbif says:

    Ladbrokes currently have Sarko at 5-1, worth a few €, I reckon. (Betfair aren’t operating in this race, something to do with French law, apparently.)

    Like

    • 47
      Mornington Crescent says:

      Yep, don’t write Sarko off just yet. Hollande isn’t a leader – just a follower; he wasn’t even the first choice of his own party and is only where he is because DSK couldn’t keep his tool under control. Hollande will just drift in and out of the centre – although drift is arguably worse when the country is heading down the ‘chiottes’.

      Like

  20. 38
    MandyPickleSniffer says:

    Does this mean Carla Bruni can go back to shagging Mick Jagger and Eric Clapton?

    Like

  21. 46
    Q says:

    To be fair Guido the Greek political elite shorted the Euro a long time before you did

    Like

  22. 52
    Michael Winner says:

    The new president of France might be Hollandaise? Sounds good to me.

    Like

    • 56
      Gordon Ramsey says:

      Chefs – always keep a bottle of your Jizzz handy in the kitchen, just in case Michael Winner visits your restaurant and you cannot get it up!

      Like

  23. 53
    Frankie Googootz says:

    I want to know what Tony Soprano thinks about all this.

    Like

  24. 53
    sockpuppet #4 says:

    He will put the top rate of tax up, and he will spend lots more money.

    “Hollande will probably tack to the centre once in office”.

    Remember that the “centre” of politics in france is WAAAAY to the left of anything a british person would expect. And too far left for the Eurozone/germany to be able to accomodate (ie bale out).

    Like

  25. 55
    Variable This Is Knife says:

    brilliant I can’t wait for a Francois hollande vs Angela Merkel clash of the titans

    Like

    • 86
      Anonymous says:

      Cheese eating surrender monkeys don’t clash.
      Merkel will twist him around her fat fingers, the way she did with Sarky.

      Like

      • 128
        Peter Carter-Fuck says:

        “Fat arsed and unfuckable”. You can’t argue with Berlusconi when ti comes to judging the female form. A shame he and DSK couldn’t have been in power together, the parties would have been fucking incredible.

        Like

  26. 57
    M says:

    Saying what you need to get your face in the trough
    And doing what you need to keep feeding from it are Two very different things .
    To be a socialist or not to be that is the question
    ( democracy & reality the scourge of socialism )

    Like

  27. 59
    WVM says:

    Well the markets are looking bullish today… hahaha!

    Happy St George’s Day!

    Like

  28. 61
    Tom Tomos says:

    ‘The dream of a united continent of Europe with one currency would be over…’

    As Derrida would say, it’s always already over.

    Like

  29. 62
    Jenny Jones says:

    Like

  30. 63
    Jane Birkin from Paris says:

    Hollande is a 57 year old unmarried Catholic who has never held Government office.

    He has managed to father 4 bastards with Segolene Royale who just happened to be the Socialist candidate in 2002.

    A few days before the Election in2002 they were kissing in public. On the evening in 2002 when Sarkozy won the Election Royal kicked him out of the house.

    He was soon being seen in public with some some smart woman reporter from Paris Match who is still around and may even have been around prior to 2002. He also was able to take advantage of French privacy laws to get a nice little payout which I think did not end up going to Charity.

    One of his leftwing allies has described him as ‘as much use as a captain on a pedalo in a storm’.

    There are going to be 500,000 new teachers!

    Like

    • 81
      edmartin says:

      ..et mon cul c’est pas d’un poulet…..

      Like

    • 84
      Sir Everard Digby says:

      Is he being advised by Ed Milliband? If,so why stop at 500,000 new teachers? Surely 5 million would be a real headline grabbing downright lie?

      Perhaps shouting Ashcroft quite regularly would be a good strategy?

      Like

    • 100
      sockpuppet #4 says:

      2002 was the one that ended up Chirac vs Papa LePen

      Teaching assistants intit?

      Like

  31. 65
    Loungelizard says:

    Sarkozy was shorted that’s why the rest of the world looks down on him, it’s a height thing.

    Like

  32. 67
    Steve Lloyd. says:

    Do i need to take my money out of Santander?

    Like

  33. 69
    Pillar Box Person says:

    Banning the Veil was his downfall

    Like

  34. 73
    edmartin says:

    Chaq’un a Sangatte!

    Like

  35. 74
    Sarky says:

    Ecoutez moi, tete de merdes.

    As Arni would say “Ill be black”

    Like

  36. 79
    bergen says:

    As Guido says, this could do finally for the Euro. I’m sure of one thing- Brussells can impose a “technocratic” government on Rome and Athens but if they try that stunt on Paris then we’ll have another commune.

    Like

  37. 82
    Anonymous says:

    Dutch crisis puts eurozone debt rescue plans at risk

    we can only hope so much now that the euro collapses, surely then cameron ,clegg and osbourne would have to resign?

    and we can have a true, proper english government that we so deserve and have wanted for decades now!

    truly truly fuck the eu now and all it stands for!!

    Like

  38. 83
    Anonymous says:

    Fuck the bond markets.

    The sooner everything collapses, the sooner rich scum lose all their loot, the sooner those scum are arrested and disposed of.

    Everything still on track for deliverance from the eu/liblabcon traitor class.

    Like

    • 91
      edmartin says:

      don’t jump Alf!

      its clear enough that you are profoundly unhappy – fluoxetine, viagra – they are all freely available you know

      an acquaintance of mine gets his full ration of viagra and trades them for ale – another nice little earner!

      Like

    • 93
      MandyPickleSniffer says:

      yeah…kill the rich…they’re all scum…there isn’t a single one of them who actually worked hard for their money, they all inherited their wealth, they all went to Eton, and the sooner everyone at the top is disposed of the sooner we can become a nation made up of the lowest common denominator, and we no longer have to feel bad about having failed our O-levels and no longer have to lie about being burger flippers at McDonalds. Bring everyone down…yeah…

      what a prat you are Anonymous…

      Like

      • 109
        Try joining the real world says:

        Anonymous is obviously one of those public-school educated spoilt little rich kids, who still lives off mummy and daddy.

        Like

        • 121
          I'm Not Judging, But... says:

          Don’t bait him – I think he masturb8s furiously to the answers he gets. His eyesight is failing like his thinking. Just don’t shake his sticky little hand.

          Like

  39. 90
    WVM says:

    Anyone else getting the Daily Telegraph Debit Crisis page? Looks like the whole thing has gone down?

    Like

  40. 94
    Raving Loon says:

    A North/South EU empire, sound a lot like the East/West Roman empire. The end is inevitable, and it can’t come soon enough.

    Like

    • 129
      Peter Carter-Fuck says:

      Just remember not to let the Turks in. It didn’t work too well in 1453 did it?

      Like

  41. 95
    Hang The Bastards says:

    Cameron is next to go….. The citizens of Europe are sick of these self serving carear politicians who have constructed this millstone around our necks.

    Bye Bye Dave !

    Like

  42. 97
    Vobe is a knob says:

    off topic but if this little shit

    http://www.warringtonlabour.com/warrington-north/warrington-north-wards/culcheth-glazebury-and-croft.aspx

    [puts any more flyers through my door I will hunt him down and rip his head off.

    He has never done a days work in his life, backed by Mummy , who he still lives with, he is being lined up for the gravy train.

    Workshy parasite.

    Rant over

    Like

  43. 98
    Jane Birkin from Paris says:

    For Ed Balls read Francois Hollande.

    Vous Pigez.

    Like

    • 102
      edmartin says:

      perhaps but I’d rather have sauce hollandaise than the ballsian equivalent

      Like

    • 108
      sockpuppet #4 says:

      Not close. I don’t know much about Hollande but would imagine he’s not quite the devious get that Balls is. Unless of course Strauss Kahn is entirely innocent, and Hollande just smeared him.

      And it seems unlikely that Ed Balls would ever try to introduce legislation to ban companies from making their staff redundant (in any case where the company isn’t actually about to go bust). Or indeed try hard to increase the barriers for independent workers. Never mind the easy one. 75% income tax.

      Like

  44. 99
    Jim Callaghan says:

    Crisis – what crisis?

    Like

  45. 101
    BREAKING WIND says:

    Things are moving quick today, Douglas Alexander’s been saying everything is far more fucked than they first thought (Euro Crisis) and has asked all Gov departments to look for a further 5% in cuts across the board.

    Like

  46. 105

    If Hollande prevails and does follow a left wing agenda, forcing France into the PIIGS, perhaps they should then be collectively known as the F-PIIGS or FuckPIIGS for ease of speech.

    Like

    • 110
      edmartin says:

      ..and all that was left was a pack of pork scratchings….

      Like

      • 124
        Really? says:

        Now that the Netherlands have joined the merry GIPSI band, they need a new acronym. How about the hopeless PISING debtors?

        It needs work, but there’s a chance the Slovaks or Slovenes or Serbs might get into serious financial caca soon…

        Like

    • 137

      As a Doctor WHo fan I am hoping for PIGBIN in the acronym bingo.

      Like

  47. 111
    Jimmy says:

    Les choses ne peuvent qu’ameliorer.

    Like

  48. 120
    Julian The Wonderhorse says:

    The rise of the PIFIGS

    Like

  49. 122
    Casual Observer says:

    There will be bonded warehouses in France and Germany where the New Francs and New Marks that were printed months ago are being stored for early distribution.

    Exch rates will be 1 New Franc/Mark for 1€, for the first few nanoseconds anyway…

    Like

  50. 131
    misterned says:

    The Euro changing as you describe would not end the EU. It would only force them to change what order it is implemented in. It would change from a Fiscal Union with a single currency to a Fiscal Union with harmonised tax and spend policies across the EU and harmonised social and criminal and commercial laws. Then they would try to implement the single currency again, when the EU has harmonised everything else.

    Like

  51. 133
    Aldo says:

    Nations need to stop being afraid of attracting the ire of the casino capitalists. Money, after all, doesn’t really exist. What matters are resources and human labour – everything else goes for nowt (including those smart arses masturbating over the multi-zeroed numbers flashing across their screens in the city). If a monetary system no longer serves the people then it must be rebuilt. No longer should a great nation like France or Britain have to cower in fear at the thought of what international loan sharks might do. Tell them to get lost – and then marshal your population into building, making, selling and serving their way back to prosperity. As for the euro – the sooner it collapses, the better.

    Like

  52. 136
    Jane Birkin from Paris says:

    Would you like to be governed by a man who on election day goes to a restaurant and eats asperge croustillant?

    If so vote Francois Hollande!

    Like


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Darling

What time will dinner be ready this evening?

Yours

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In the interests of me I am placing a copy of this email in the public domain.


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